Shanghai Trouble?

[lockedoutlogic]

All great questions. From what I've read, mainland China does not identify with the Disney icons. So is a store that features Disney merchandise going to be successful? Who knows?

What's the measure of success?

If it does more sales than a Disney store in Bloomington, Indiana does that make it a success?

As with everything Disney - it's all about the backspin, baby...

 

[Josh Hendy]

It isn't necessarily true that the Shanghainese had to be spending a lot in the Disney store. While Shanghai is possibly the richest city in China, the average person there is still pretty poor compared to North Americans and Europeans. It is possible that most of the Chinese visitors considered the opening to be an exciting spectacle rather than a shopping opportunity. Especially if the store turned out not to have tremendous sales or bargains compared to what they can already buy in existing stores or online.

What we really need is more first-hand information ...

 

[rteetz]

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING! Really? Yes I am being sarcastic because this is ridiculous. You are being unreasonable. I think when tens of thousands of people wait to go into a store it can be generally assumed that most bought something and sales were high that day. That is reasonable. I have never heard of any situation that was otherwise. Find a news story that talks about low sales or find anything that gives any indication that people didn't buy that day. If you cannot, then the reasonable rational assumption is that PEOPLE LINED UP TO GO INTO A STORE TO BUY THINGS. Do you have any evidence that the reasonable and rational normal assumption is wrong? Let's hear it.



For 4 days there were continued long lines of an hour to get inside. I haven't read anything since, but store attendance is like movie attendance: Patterns of behavior are predictable within normal ranges. For example, whatever a movie makes on opening weekend, whether $10 million or $100 million, it is probably going to decrease the next week by anywhere form 40 to 60 percent. $100M movies never drop to $2M and $10M movies never jump in the second week to $50M. Same rules apply. The first day and week after a store grand opening gives some indication, within a range, of performance over the near future.

Obviously we don't know long term what will happen. You have to take everything one day at a time. But in the area of brand recognition and public acceptance, historic crowds at a grand opening is never bad. That generally portends good. Every news story I've seen is saying the response suggests a high interest in Disney among Shanghai's population. That is a reasonable conclusion. Unless everybody stood in line for hours to go in a store they didn't care about and not buy anything. That is not a reasonable assumption to make based on any rational approach to how sales work anywhere, including China. And remember, this is China with an enormous population and Shanghai is China's biggest city.

I am not yet predicting massive success, but so far the facts are pointing in the direction of success. There is no other reasonable way to logically interpret the facts. Just like the facts about the Tomorrowland movie are pointing in the direction of failure, even if the jury isn't in yet and it isn't "historic" in level. I can accept both - one I like and one I don't - but both assumptions are at this point supported by the facts.

I'm not questioning that it won't be successful or something I was just asking how it's been since opening because I haven't heard anything. For the most part I agree. I think the store will be successful, but that doesn't mean of course if it isn't China can't make it seem like it is.

 

[Barnabe]

Again...you're talking as though china is like macys at the king of Prussia mall on Black Friday..

That is the crux of the argument on the entire thread...you cannot look at china in American terms.

That doesn't mean the park will fail or Disney will suffer...but there is a legitimate level of doubt as to if this is a fools gambit.

this is my whole argument. I've been to China. The Chinese could really care a less about American Culture. So everything, including the Disney store could've been nothing more than a curiosity, something to see. Nothing else. Until sales figures are reported, no one will really know the truth, regardless of how many people were waiting to enter the store.

 

[DDLand]

this is my whole argument. I've been to China. The Chinese could really care a less about American Culture. So everything, including the Disney store could've been nothing more than a curiosity, something to see. Nothing else. Until sales figures are reported, no one will really know the truth, regardless of how many people were waiting to enter the store.

My whole argument is the Chinese people will pick the best product that fits into their life. The Chinese won't buy a product because it's "American," but because it's the leader of the category.

Apple, KFC, luxury brands, etc. all thrive in China because they're the best in their industry. Not because they're "American."

Disney is one of the greatest content creators and storytelling companies in the world. They'll evolve until they're one of the best in China. That's my point. Disney will cater itself to that market and begin to dominate. This isn't a China v. U.S. so much as it's a great content verses bad content.

 

[wallrock]

My whole argument is the Chinese people will pick the best product that fits into their life. The Chinese won't buy a product because it's "American," but because it's the leader of the category.

Apple, KFC, luxury brands, etc. all thrive in China because they're the best in their industry. Not because they're "American."

Disney is one of the greatest content creators and storytelling companies in the world. They'll evolve until they're one of the best in China. That's my point. Disney will cater itself to that market and begin to dominate. This isn't a China v. U.S. so much as it's a great content verses bad content.

Being the 'best in their industry' doesn't guarantee success in China. Fast food should be relatively simple, yet KFC's parent company (Yum! Brands) saw a 16% drop in sales in 2013 and dropped 6% the first quarter this year. Media items like what Disney sells will be modified to fit the desires of the Chinese government. If Disney wants to survive in that market they will cater to whatever China says is sufficient to sell in their country or they'll depart. Hard to tell right now how that relationship will work out, but I'd say domination should not be a descriptor for that relationship.

As for others, ask Google and IBM how things worked out for them over there.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Again...you're talking as though china is like macys at the king of Prussia mall on Black Friday..

That is the crux of the argument on the entire thread...you cannot look at china in American terms.

That doesn't mean the park will fail or Disney will suffer...but there is a legitimate level of doubt as to if this is a fools gambit.

There are cultural differences, but shopping is shopping. They buy things in China as people do here. In different patterns, but they buy. Especially toys. And while many may avoid the Disney store for cultural reasons, it is reasonable to assume those that stood in line did so to buy something.

I'm not questioning that it won't be successful or something I was just asking how it's been since opening because I haven't heard anything. For the most part I agree. I think the store will be successful, but that doesn't mean of course if it isn't China can't make it seem like it is.

Sorry, that remark at the beginning of the quote wasn't pointed to you at all. I tried to answer your question in the line that referenced the 4 days: For 4 days there were lines an hour long to get in to the store, and I haven't found any info after that. Everyone reporting has been talking about the success. I think it is fair to assume the opening was a success until anything is reported otherwise. I was responding to the idea that a humongous number of people line up to enter the store and someone wants to assume they didn't buy things unless it can be proven they made purchases. That isn't a reasonable conclusion.

this is my whole argument. I've been to China. The Chinese could really care a less about American Culture. So everything, including the Disney store could've been nothing more than a curiosity, something to see. Nothing else. Until sales figures are reported, no one will really know the truth, regardless of how many people were waiting to enter the store.

How long ago? Things have been changing rapidly in China. Look at how they adore our movies now and that grows every year. And, apparently, a large number of Shanghai residents are interested in Disney. The proof of any store opening is in the response and this response was overwhelming.

My whole argument is the Chinese people will pick the best product that fits into their life. The Chinese won't buy a product because it's "American," but because it's the leader of the category.

Apple, KFC, luxury brands, etc. all thrive in China because they're the best in their industry. Not because they're "American."

Disney is one of the greatest content creators and storytelling companies in the world. They'll evolve until they're one of the best in China. That's my point. Disney will cater itself to that market and begin to dominate. This isn't a China v. U.S. so much as it's a great content verses bad content.

I agree 100%. I think this is exactly why Disney has created a whole new Chinese movie studio that will make content directly for the Chinese market. They will customize what they produce to meet Chinese demand until they dominate. When it comes to movies (and toys) they certainly know what they are doing!

 

[DDLand]

Being the 'best in their industry' doesn't guarantee success in China. Fast food should be relatively simple, yet KFC's parent company (Yum! Brands) saw a 16% drop in sales in 2013 and dropped 6% the first quarter this year. Media items like what Disney sells will be modified to fit the desires of the Chinese government. If Disney wants to survive in that market they will cater to whatever China says is sufficient to sell in their country or they'll depart. Hard to tell right now how that relationship will work out, but I'd say domination should not be a descriptor for that relationship.

As for others, ask Google and IBM how things worked out for them over there.

Of course they'll need to evolve like I said in my post above. They also won't start out on top either. I'm just betting that their storytelling will eventually lead to their longterm success.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Of course they'll need to evolve like I said in my post above. They also won't start out on top either. I'm just betting that their storytelling will eventually lead to their longterm success.

Laying down to the governments whims or censorship (it won't be called that publically...but nonetheless)...is not "evolution"...it's a devils deal...

I'm not on some kinda anti communist rant...ideally speaking id take it over laisse faire any day of the week... But that is only in a utopian form...

But I still think all this junk in china is about walmart, isle 12...not selling Mickey bars or balloons outside of pirates.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Laying down to the governments whims or censorship (it won't be called that publically...but nonetheless)...is not "evolution"...it's a devils deal...

Interestingly, the bible itself turned out to be nearly impossible to translate into Chinese without having to make theological, ideological and political compromises. I heard. The written Chinese language has always been controlled by the government so it was pretty hard for missionaries to tell the story of the tribes of Israel leading to the life of Jesus and the acts of the apostles without slipping into a Sinified narrative, based on the choice of words and the kinds of expressions that had to be used.

So yeah ... Disney stories will have to be bent a little bit out of shape or they just won't go over in China. And bent in the direction that the established bigwigs want it to be bent.

You can be optimistic that instead of kow-towing they will look for angles that will go against the grain a little bit ... in a good way. The story of Mulan is an interesting example. It goes against the anti-female-child prejudice. But it does in the end conclude that the greatest duty of everyone in China, even despised girls, is to fight for the preservation of the government. And weakening the preference for boys is a big plank in the communist party's platform anyways. So the bending started happening years ago. You can expect a lot more "adaptations" like that in the future.

 

[rteetz]

Looks like it's pretty easy to get into Shanghai disneyland...

http://whiteconfucius.com/places/infiltrating-shanghai-disneyland/

Looks like things are going great for disney...

 

[comcastlover33]

The photo of Iger in the new Shanghai store wasn't supposed to be released.

What photo is this? I have never seen it.

 

[Josh Hendy]

What photo is this? I have never seen it.

Was that the one where he's trying to see the castle by peering through a crack in the construction fence?

Correct, that was not supposed to be released.





JOKING

 

[rteetz]

What photo is this? I have never seen it.

It was him holding a storm trooper helmet inside the new Shanghai Disney store

 

[comcastlover33]

It was him holding a storm trooper helmet inside the new Shanghai Disney store

Oh, looking at it now, I dont understand why Disney would not want it released?

 

[rteetz]

Oh, looking at it now, I dont understand why Disney would not want it released?

Disney does, the Shanghai officials don't. If you don't understand how Chinese government officials work than that won't make sense but Shendi (government company they are working with) doesn't want Disney all that involved.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Could be a blip, or could be the start of serious trouble. Here is a selection of headlines from the last couple of days:

China stocks plunge as bubble fears grow
"This has been one terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for the Chinese stock market."
China stocks slump as huge IPO wave lands
China stocks in worst week since 2008
China Stocks Enter Correction as BlackRock Sees Bubble Bursting

And other headlines about a drop in steel prices, bearish Chinese real estate sentiment, etc.

Years ago, before 2008, I read an article that laid out the case that the "next great depression" would start with a stock market crash in China, in the same way that the 1930s depression started with a stock market crash in the USA. The gist of the writer's argument was that China is now the lender to the whole world, the way that USA was lender to the whole world in the 1920s. In event of a severe stock market crash, lending is halted and cash is conserved, world trade is severely affected etc. ... or something along these lines.

Not sure how Shanghai DL would be affected in the short term, but if there is a long term "correction" there's bound to be trouble. A significant part of the wealth (or feeling of wealth) in Shanghai may depend on money derived from the stock market or real estate bubbles. If the paper profits turn to non-existent profits ...

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

How far along is the present building at SD?

AKK

 

[rteetz]

How far along is the present building at SD?

AKK

Things are moving along. Hotels and Disney town areas are farther along than the park. Park is set for a May 2016 opening

 

[Disney Von Drake]

Disney does, the Shanghai officials don't. If you don't understand how Chinese government officials work than that won't make sense but Shendi (government company they are working with) doesn't want Disney all that involved.

Why did Shendi sign a deal with Disney?