Running Renaissance: One Skip Ahead of my Doom

[DopeyBadger]

Almost forgot...This blows my mind! What a massive improvement!! What sort of training were you doing back then?

You'll like the answer, Hansons Intermediate. It was my first time using Hansons and I crossed the beginner's mileage with the advanced's workouts. Started the plan in June 2015 I believe.

 

[GollyGadget]

You'll like the answer, Hansons Intermediate. It was my first time using Hansons and I crossed the beginner's mileage with the advanced's workouts. Started the plan in June 2015 I believe.

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Fun fact, I ran the Madison Mini in 2015. Albeit much slower than you in 2:07:02. It remains my slowest HM that I've ever raced.

I'm not expecting quite the results you did since mine will only be a modest increase in mileage and not a total training philosophy shift. However, I'm in it for the long run and will be totally stoked for any improvement.



In totally unrelated news, I had my wisdom teeth removed about 8 hours ago and I'm already going stir crazy. Plan for the evening is to re-read parts of HMM and hopefully pick up some little wisdom nuggets to use during training

 

[jmasgat]

In totally unrelated news, I had my wisdom teeth removed about 8 hours ago and I'm already going stir crazy.

Hope that / sounds like your recovery is going well. I remember having mine out many (many) years ago. It required a hospital stay (like I said--many years!) and was god awful. Not even the drugs helped.

 

[GollyGadget]

Hope that / sounds like your recovery is going well. I remember having mine out many (many) years ago. It required a hospital stay (like I said--many years!) and was god awful. Not even the drugs helped.

Yikes! It's definitely going better than yours. I have a little pain and swelling but that's really it. I should have had mine removed two decades ago but they never bothered me so I kept them. They still weren't bothering me but my dentist finally scared me enough by telling me that if they ever did need removed, it'd suck a lot more the older I was.

For now, my biggest annoyance is not being able to eat solid food.

 

[azrivest]

I have a little pain and swelling but that's really it.

Do you look like a chipmunk? That's what happened to me, everyone was teasing me like crazy

 

[GollyGadget]

Do you look like a chipmunk? That's what happened to me, everyone was teasing me like crazy

It was worse yesterday. Today I can actually smile

 

[GollyGadget]

Marathon Training Week 1/18

Wooo! Here we go! Week 1 done . Inspired by @DopeyBadger, I decided I would do a countdown for my training as well. However, I will not be counting down my top races because I don't want to copy exactly and that would require a stronger memory than I have . Instead, in no particular order, I will share 18 things I'm looking forward to during marathon weekend 2024. The goal is to keep my journal updates somewhat interesting and also motivate myself. Some will be race specific but most will just focus on the Disney visit itself. So anyway, without further ado

1. Moana Journey of Water - as far as post 90s Disney movies go, Moana is in my top 5. I'm also particularly nostalgic regarding the jumping fountains by the imagination pavilion. It's one of the few things I remember about my childhood visits. This looks to be a great combination of the two.

Now on with the training recap!

Monday, 4 Sept - 3 mile walk
I hadn't ran since Tuesday the week before and was itching to get out there again but within the first few steps it became very apparent that my mouth was not ready. I returned home and collected Hattie so we could go on a walk instead. She wasn't happy that we left Bucky behind but I thought having two dogs would slow me down too much. My mistake because I basically had to drag Hattie along until we got to the turn around point. She was very excited at the idea of being reunited with her friend.

I followed up the walk with a 20 min glutes + leg routine. I didn't love it but it was okay. I did skip the jumping at the end so maybe that would have made it better . My legs were sore the next day so at least it worked something new.

Thursday, 7 Sept - 6 miles
Since Monday didn't go as planned, I decided to just wait until Thursday to try again when the book plan officially began. I'm really not sure why it starts on Thursday, it's always confused me. This was a beautiful morning for a run but my right hip was hurting. I assume just to remind me to keep at my strength training.

Friday, 8 Sept - 6 miles
It was a bit warm but the body felt good. I tried a new route but it was too secluded for my liking. After the run was 20 min of runner stability and this was a really good one for me. Minus the situps, which probably are good for me but I'm gonna need to work up to those a bit.

Saturday, 9 Sept - 6 miles
I woke up early to get this done before my volunteer shift at the zoo. My muscles were sore from the day before but everything felt good otherwise.

Sunday, 10 Sept - 8 miles
It was quite humid and soupy but not miserable. The run went well and I spotted a new character, a wild turkey . I ran in my princess 10K shirt from 2019 and it caused the worst chafing I've had all summer under my arms. I never really had an opinion on the shirts before that run but man, those shirts are definitely getting removed from my running rotation. I don't remember having a problem in the past but I don't want to experience that again




26 total running miles for the week and ready to take on my first speed work since May next week!

ETA: I nearly forgot that I discovered this marathon predictor on runalyze this week. Anyone use it before or have opinions on it? I thought it'd be fun to track how it changes over the training season.

After week 1, it's estimating a 3:38 with optimal training 🏎

Happy running y'all!

 

[SheHulk]

I haven't used the marathon predictor you posted, but this one from fivethirtyeight has been weirdly accurate for me over the years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator/

 

[striker1064]

I haven't used the marathon predictor you posted, but this one from fivethirtyeight has been weirdly accurate for me over the years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator/

Oh yeah I've been playing with this one during my current training cycle and I'm very curious to see how it verifies. I'm right around a 3:56. One thing that struck me is just how little weekly mileage matters beyond a certain point - the diminishing results are obvious.

 

[SheHulk]

Oh yeah I've been playing with this one during my current training cycle and I'm very curious to see how it verifies. I'm right around a 3:56. One thing that struck me is just how little weekly mileage matters beyond a certain point - the diminishing results are obvious.

It's really very simple information it takes in, but I have been astounded how well it predicts my finish times on races where I'm trying.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

Well, that's going to be some rabbit holes

If I give the 538 calculator just my 10K time from May, it predicts a 3:52. If I also include my 10M time from April, it says 4:02. Hmmm...

 

[flav]

Well, that's going to be some rabbit holes

If I give the 538 calculator just my 10K time from May, it predicts a 3:52. If I also include my 10M time from April, it says 4:02. Hmmm...

Yes, the algorithm definitely has its limits: If I train 0 miles per week, I am still only adding 10 minutes to my time on a marathon. It doesn’t say how enjoyable the race would be though.

 

[SheHulk]

Well, that's going to be some rabbit holes

If I give the 538 calculator just my 10K time from May, it predicts a 3:52. If I also include my 10M time from April, it says 4:02. Hmmm...

Let us know how it compares!

 

[GollyGadget]

I haven't used the marathon predictor you posted, but this one from fivethirtyeight has been weirdly accurate for me over the years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator/

I have used this one and it was disappointingly very accurate for me. Similar to @WillRunForPizza I got a slower time when I included a second race result which was ultimately more accurate than with only the half marathon. I'll definitely be using this as race day nears.

I like that runalyze has numbers that adjust from training so I can track them as training progresses. I 100% believe 3:38 is a bit aggressive so not putting a lot of faith in that number but I am expecting to see the 44% improve. It won't get to 100% because I'm not planning any 18 mi runs but how high will it go? And how low will the 4:28 predicted time fall?

Oh yeah I've been playing with this one during my current training cycle and I'm very curious to see how it verifies. I'm right around a 3:56. One thing that struck me is just how little weekly mileage matters beyond a certain point - the diminishing results are obvious.

What mileage is the diminishing returns point for you? My current plan has me at 55 mpw avg for the last 6 weeks. This is about 10 mpw more than I did last time around.

I'm not too surprised that there is a limit. Most marathon calculators fail because they expect ideal training. I'm assuming this one uses similar math to calculate your ceiling and then adjusts downward based on weekly mileage.

All of which brings me to a question, what weekly mileage are y'all using in the calculator? I picked the last 6 weeks for no particular reason.

 

[SheHulk]

I have used this one and it was disappointingly very accurate for me. Similar to @WillRunForPizza I got a slower time when I included a second race result which was ultimately more accurate than with only the half marathon. I'll definitely be using this as race day nears.

I like that runalyze has numbers that adjust from training so I can track them as training progresses. I 100% believe 3:38 is a bit aggressive so not putting a lot of faith in that number but I am expecting to see the 44% improve. It won't get to 100% because I'm not planning any 18 mi runs but how high will it go? And how low will the 4:28 predicted time fall?


What mileage is the diminishing returns point for you? My current plan has me at 55 mpw avg for the last 6 weeks. This is about 10 mpw more than I did last time around.

I'm not too surprised that there is a limit. Most marathon calculators fail because they expect ideal training. I'm assuming this one uses similar math to calculate your ceiling and then adjusts downward based on weekly mileage.

All of which brings me to a question, what weekly mileage are y'all using in the calculator? I picked the last 6 weeks for no particular reason.

I pick the whole training cycle, like 16 weeks, which is about 30 mi/week on average for me. This is a cursed training cycle with a minor injury and now a cold so I'm probably averaging even lower than that. I don't plan on going full out on my race in a month, so probably not a good test of the calculator this time.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

what weekly mileage are y'all using in the calculator?

I used the average weekly mileage for my plan - about 46 mpw.

 

[striker1064]

What mileage is the diminishing returns point for you? My current plan has me at 55 mpw avg for the last 6 weeks. This is about 10 mpw more than I did last time around.

I guess diminishing returns isn't the best way to say it. I'm using 50 MPW and playing with the calculator, if I were to drop to 45 it would only add a minute to my predicted finish time.

If I give the 538 calculator just my 10K time from May, it predicts a 3:52. If I also include my 10M time from April, it says 4:02. Hmmm...

*adjusts spectacles*

If I enter my Broad Street 10-miler time, my prediction drops to a 4:01:44. I do not like this one bit. I'm actually very curious about the algorithm now, because the 10-miler is an objectively better and faster race time! It converts to almost a 2-minute faster HM than my actual from RnR.

 

[SheHulk]

I guess diminishing returns isn't the best way to say it. I'm using 50 MPW and playing with the calculator, if I were to drop to 45 it would only add a minute to my predicted finish time.



*adjusts spectacles*

If I enter my Broad Street 10-miler time, my prediction drops to a 4:01:44. I do not like this one bit. I'm actually very curious about the algorithm now, because the 10-miler is an objectively better and faster race time! It converts to almost a 2-minute faster HM than my actual from RnR.

Right, so you slow down as you add miles from 10 to 13... It's expecting you to slow down even more when you move up to 26 miles. You can try putting in a slower 10 miler and see what that does.

Edited to add that when I put in my half time of 1:57:45 (not sure those seconds are correct but who cares), it gives me a prediction of 4:18:54
But when I add my 10 miler of 1:30:08 (I didn't try quite as hard, and had a slower relative time), it says my marathon should be 4:25:42. So my explanation doesn't make sense. Not sure what they are doing there.

 

[striker1064]

Right, so you slow down as you add miles from 10 to 13... It's expecting you to slow down even more when you move up to 26 miles. You can try putting in a slower 10 miler and see what that does.

Edited to add that when I put in my half time of 1:57:45 (not sure those seconds are correct but who cares), it gives me a prediction of 4:18:54
But when I add my 10 miler of 1:30:08 (I didn't try quite as hard, and had a slower relative time), it says my marathon should be 4:25:42. So my explanation doesn't make sense. Not sure what they are doing there.

Yeah it's weird! Ordinarily I would agree with you - a 10-miler is an objectively worse predictor than a HM, but still the HM data is in there so you wouldn't think it would make that drastic of a difference.

Get THIS, if I put ONLY Broad Street in the calculator it converts to a 3:56 full! And if I put RnR HM as the second time, it does the same thing and drops to a 4:01:44!

I think it's dumb. That's my conclusion.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

Yeah, that's weird. I tried putting in the 10M first too, and it gave me a 3:54 for just the 10M and a 4:02 again for both. So to summarize...

• 10K (48:47) alone: 3:52
• 10M (1:21:51) alone: 3:54
• 10K + 10M, in either order: 4:02

... huh?