Running Renaissance: One Skip Ahead of my Doom

[DopeyBadger]

Is that runalyze chart a premium feature or free?

 

[GollyGadget]

Is that runalyze chart a premium feature or free?

Free! It syncs with my garmin data and makes the calculations based on that data. You have to click into Marathon Shape to see the numbers. There's a big disclaimer on it:
The "Marathon Shape" is not scientifically based and only serves as a rough estimate of whether you are sufficiently trained for a specific target distance

It's the only free predictor that I've seen that actually uses training data so that's what appeals to me. Not just theoretically if you are well trained, this is what you could do. No idea how well it works, so that's part of the fun of tracking it this time around.



https://runalyze.com/dashboard

 

[DopeyBadger]

Interesting, this is what it gives me.



I'd say it seems overly aggressive on my abilities across the board. Thirty seconds better on 5k PR, nearly a minute on 10k PR, 2 min on HM PR, and 14 min on M PR. Seems like the weekly mileage value is based on roughly half a year. So it wants me to average 57 miles per week for 6 months to hit that 100% marathon shape number. Thats about 1500 miles in 6 months. I did about 1400 miles in the 6 months prior to my 2022 marathon, and 1150 miles prior to 2021 marathon. I've got about 1475 miles in the 2024 plan.

I find this one interesting as well.



Seems like it is trying to use my data to fit a model to better predict the outcome.

 

[GollyGadget]

Interesting, this is what it gives me.

View attachment 795019

I'd say it seems overly aggressive on my abilities across the board. Thirty seconds better on 5k PR, nearly a minute on 10k PR, 2 min on HM PR, and 14 min on M PR. Seems like the weekly mileage value is based on roughly half a year. So it wants me to average 57 miles per week for 6 months to hit that 100% marathon shape number. Thats about 1500 miles in 6 months. I did about 1400 miles in the 6 months prior to my 2022 marathon, and 1150 miles prior to 2021 marathon. I've got about 1475 miles in the 2024 plan.

I find this one interesting as well.

View attachment 795020

Seems like it is trying to use my data to fit a model to better predict the outcome.

I haven't spent much time looking at the predictions that are not the marathon, but I agree that it is VERY aggressive based on that value alone. I've also noticed it's ever changing. I was checking it after every run for about a week or so but that became maddening. For example, since I took the last screenshot on Sunday, my optimum marathon time has dropped by 2 minutes. At this point, the tracking is just for fun. If come January I find that it's forecasts are similar to my performance, then I might take it more seriously in the future.

I had never clicked around enough to see that second graph but that is interesting. In my case, you can see that in all of them runalyze would have predicted a faster time than how I performed. In your example, you at least met or exceeded expectations for some races.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I had never clicked around enough to see that second graph but that is interesting. In my case, you can see that in all of them runalyze would have predicted a faster time than how I performed. In your example, you at least met or exceeded expectations for some races.

Try editing out your fun run races, or at least set them to a "D" priority. My feeling is that there is some sort of calculation going on to try and "fit" your performances to a model. So when you have a 3:30 Wine and Dine HM, it thinks you were actually trying and that's reflective of your fitness.

If that doesn't change anything, then yea, I'm with you. It seems odd that you never meet or exceed expectations based on the data it's evaluating. Something else feels like it must be off.

 

[WillRunForPizza]

So I gave this thing my data, and for me the prediction chart seems to underestimate my fitness. This is current, but I have literally run significantly faster than all of these this year (up to HM, which was on Sunday so you would think it could figure that one out even if my slow summer runs confused it):

 

[GollyGadget]

I removed W&D a

Try editing out your fun run races, or at least set them to a "D" priority. My feeling is that there is some sort of calculation going on to try and "fit" your performances to a model. So when you have a 3:30 Wine and Dine HM, it thinks you were actually trying and that's reflective of your fitness.

If that doesn't change anything, then yea, I'm with you. It seems odd that you never meet or exceed expectations based on the data it's evaluating. Something else feels like it must be off.

I removed W&D from the race results as well as most of the other Disney races since even though I take them more seriously than most, I'm still stopping for a few photos. I decided to keep the WDW marathon since that's the only race I have for that distance. None of the numbers changed! Now I'm even more curious how it's coming up with this V02max (shape)...

 

[GollyGadget]

So I gave this thing my data, and for me the prediction chart seems to underestimate my fitness. This is current, but I have literally run significantly faster than all of these this year (up to HM, which was on Sunday so you would think it could figure that one out even if my slow summer runs confused it):

View attachment 795960

Have you marked any activities as races? I have zero idea how this thing works, but I would be interested if your times change once you have some "races" in the dataset.

 

[GollyGadget]

Just noticed it thinks I'm capable of a 5 minute mile

 

[WillRunForPizza]

Have you marked any activities as races? I have zero idea how this thing works, but I would be interested if your times change once you have some "races" in the dataset.

I did, and the predictions actually got slower (those are the ones I posted)

 

[GollyGadget]

I did, and the predictions actually got slower (those are the ones I posted)

That's wild. Congrats on being an over achiever!

From what I read it seems to rely heavily on HR so I tried updating my max HR to see if that made any difference and it did not. I didn't change it drastically, just 3 bpm, but I would have expected some sort of change no matter how small.

Which brings me to a question....how often should one update their max HR and HR zones? I don't rely on this data but I do note it. Currently, all of my zones are based on a maxHR of 196 but in the last 12 months the highest my HR has been is 193. It was 196 in Feb of 2022 during a mile time trial.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Just noticed it thinks I'm capable of a 5 minute mile

Based purely on HR, which you may not hit maxHR (and even if you did, since the time is so short it drags the average down). So I wouldn't put too much stock there.

Which brings me to a question....how often should one update their max HR and HR zones? I don't rely on this data but I do note it. Currently, all of my zones are based on a maxHR of 196 but in the last 12 months the highest my HR has been is 193. It was 196 in Feb of 2022 during a mile time trial.

In theory your maxHR will continue to drop as you age. Maybe by 0.5-1 bpm per year. So something in 2022 is probably still relevant. But something in 2017 probably not as much. It's also important to realize that HR reliant data should all be self contained to a single device. So if you get a new HR measuring device, I'd consider throwing out any of that data because one HR monitor might be higher or lower than the other leading to some misleading data.

I removed W&D from the race results as well as most of the other Disney races since even though I take them more seriously than most, I'm still stopping for a few photos. I decided to keep the WDW marathon since that's the only race I have for that distance. None of the numbers changed! Now I'm even more curious how it's coming up with this V02max (shape)...

Could just be nothing, but I wonder how much the calculation is struggling with how whether you run a 5k or a HM your HR is very similar across the board. All of your races seem to be around the 176-178 range regardless of distance. Compare that to my HRs in races and you can see as low as 141 for a marathon and as high as 161 for a 10k.

 

[GollyGadget]

theory your maxHR will continue to drop as you age. Maybe by 0.5-1 bpm per year. So something in 2022 is probably still relevant. But something in 2017 probably not as much. It's also important to realize that HR reliant data should all be self contained to a single device. So if you get a new HR measuring device, I'd consider throwing out any of that data because one HR monitor might be higher or lower than the other leading to some misleading data.

I’ve had this device since June 2021 so we’re good there as well.

Could just be nothing, but I wonder how much the calculation is struggling with how whether you run a 5k or a HM your HR is very similar across the board. All of your races seem to be around the 176-178 range regardless of distance. Compare that to my HRs in races and you can see as low as 141 for a marathon and as high as 161 for a 10k.

You are so much more observant than I am. How can my marathon and mile avg hr be within 1bpm of each other? Even the maxes are similar, 181 for the mile and 179 for the marathon.

I’ve always perceived myself as more of a distance runner and struggle to go fast. Is this finally some data that backs that up? Or am I just underperforming at the shorter distances?

 

[DopeyBadger]

You are so much more observant than I am. How can my marathon and mile avg hr be within 1bpm of each other? Even the maxes are similar, 181 for the mile and 179 for the marathon.

Temperature differences?

I’ve always perceived myself as more of a distance runner and struggle to go fast. Is this finally some data that backs that up? Or am I just underperforming at the shorter distances?

What's your resting HR?

Could breathing be a more limiting factor with shorter racing for you than most other people?

I mean regardless either way, you've shown nothing in your endurance performances to suggest a 5:14 is a reasonable expectation. That's the equivalent of a well trained 6:34 min/mile marathon runner.

 

[GollyGadget]

Temperature differences?



What's your resting HR?

Could breathing be a more limiting factor with shorter racing for you than most other people?

I mean regardless either way, you've shown nothing in your endurance performances to suggest a 5:14 is a reasonable expectation. That's the equivalent of a well trained 6:34 min/mile marathon runner.

Could be weather. The temp was basically the same but much more humid for the wdw marathon. It still seems weird to me, intuitively I would expect the shorter distances to have higher averages because they have a smaller percentage of time at an easy pace.

My resting hr is 44 bpm. I haven’t noticed breathing being a factor, but maybe?

My point about distance over speed was related to my recorded hr during the races. The idea that I could run a mile in 5:15 is BANANAS

 

[GollyGadget]

Marathon Training Week 3/18

Whew, what a week. Before I get to that, let's discuss the third thing I'm looking forward to at wdw marathon weekend: costumes. I love seeing everyone's creativity and pride in their running costumes. It makes the out & back sections fly by. I'm on the fence about my costume plans. I'll always pick comfort over style but I do enjoy the costumes. I've got a couple of ideas in my head so we'll see. Just don't expect anything elaborate

18 Sept - Rest
Officially the schedule had 6 easy miles but I swapped it for Wednesday because I had all of two hours to eat lunch, laundry, walk my dogs, shower, and pack before I hit the road again. Much to my surprise, I did manage a 20 min glute+hip workout at 8pm in my hotel room. The squats felt really smooth, hopefully a sign of progress.

19 Sept - 8x600
Another day, another surprise. This one wasn't as pleasant as there were storms all around but fortunately the hotel had treadmills. Unfortunately, it took me at least 3 tries to write out the workout so I would know when and what speed too run. I have no idea why my brain couldn't figure this out. I hadn't run yet so it wasn't running brain.

I accidentally hit the emergency stop about halfway through but otherwise all the intervals were good. I could feel some pain in my right hip but nothing that was impacting my gait.

20 Sept - 6 miles
Finally back home for more than a couple of hours. I had a 7a call that was just for awareness and did not require my participation so I ran during the meeting. My hip was still bothersome but better than the day prior. I happened to have a Dr appointment scheduled so I asked him about the pain. He thinks it's ITBS and gave me some stretches and exercises (clamshells). Interestingly, he noted that my leg lift strength was good it was just my rotation that needed work. I promptly did my stretches and clamshells when I got home from GotR.

21 Sept - 6 miles @ Marathon Tempo
Long time readers may remember how much I struggle with marathon tempo. Easy runs without pace are my jam. Shorter faster intervals are fine but anything over a mile takes a whole new level of focus that challenges my wandering brain. Surprisingly, the first 4.5 were really good but something happened and I just could not keep it up. My guess is dehydration since I foolishly didn't bring any water even though I was running over 9 miles total. The last tempo mile was a total disaster, almost a minute off pace. Then out of nowhere my watch ended my workout a mile before I expected. My initial reaction was no wonder that last mile was so brutal, I was supposed to be in cool down. Then my watch alerted me I had set 3 new records.

A mile in less than a second? I don't think so. No idea how that happened. I started the watch up again and continued my cool down.

22 Sept - 7 miles
This run was good but very slow. I didn't note any pain but I did somehow totally miss my turnaround point and ended up with 7.6 miles. Runner brain cannot be trusted . Did another 20 min of runner stability.

23 Sept - 6 miles
A tad faster than the day before and just barely beat some storms home. All of my travel and activities left me tired most of the day so proud that I got this done anyway.

24 Sept - 10 miles @ long run
I spent the am volunteering for a local 10 miler. Why didn't I run it? Well, I don't trust myself not to race in a race setting and I have a 5K next weekend that I'm going to try to PR. Anyway, the volunteering was fun, mostly just cheering for the runners and scaring cars away from my intersection.
After lunch and a nap, I went for my first long run of the plan. It started out really well but I could feel pain near my right hamstring the entire run. I noticed it was worse when running downhill. Fortunately, it's pretty flat around here. Finally about 7.5 miles in the pain became really sharp. I stopped and tried to stretch then decided to jog to some nearby shade and stretch some more. From there it was a lot of run/walk until mile 9.5 when I threw in the towel and walked the rest of the way home . I did some stretching and my clamshells after dinner and it's feeling better now but not great.

Next week is definitely going to be played by ear depending on how I'm feeling. I'll still get some miles in since the easy stuff is generally okay. Hopefully I'll be able to race my 5K but a bit worried I'll make it worse and jeopardize the marathon

Not too much change in the marathon predictor this week. The prognosis and optimum times both dropped about 2 minutes. I'm kind of surprised the % didn't change since I actually met the 46 miles per week goal this week but if we've learned anything in the last couple of weeks, it's that these calculations make no sense

 

[DopeyBadger]

Hope you heal soon.

I'm kind of surprised the % didn't change since I actually met the 46 miles per week goal this week but if we've learned anything in the last couple of weeks, it's that these calculations make no sense

What were you doing roughly 6 months ago and was it roughly 46 miles? I think the 46 mile goal is a running 6 month average. So if what you did 6 months ago is roughly equal to what you did this week, then they would just swap each other out.

 

[GollyGadget]

Hope you heal soon.



What were you doing roughly 6 months ago and was it roughly 46 miles? I think the 46 mile goal is a running 6 month average. So if what you did 6 months ago is roughly equal to what you did this week, then they would just swap each other out.

Six months ago there were a couple weeks were I hit 40 mpw but I was mostly in the low 30s. The calculation is a 6 month average so it might just take awhile for it to move much. I've only ran greater than 46 miles twice this year; 47 last week and 46 the week of the marathon in January. In my head, it was a weighted average but as far as I can tell only the long run is weighted.

 

[GollyGadget]

WDW Marathon Training Week 4/18


I had a rough start to the week so I had to keep reminding myself why I was doing this, what my real goal is. One of those goals is the fourth thing I’m looking forward to, earning my ears and recreating this photo from 2018. At a higher level, the goal is to be well trained and healthy so that I can enjoy the marathon. The ears will just be the frosting on the pink castle cake.

25 Sept - Rest
This was scheduled for easy miles but I still had pain in my right leg when I woke up and it was very noticeable on my dog walks so I made the decision for more rest. I did do my clamshells plus a 15 min strengthen your stride workout. I think the workout is more geared toward building muscle to be faster but I’m assuming those same muscles are needed for long slow miles as well.

26 Sept - Rest
No pain when I awoke but felt a strong pinching during the dog walks so another day of rest was in order. This was a tough decision to make because I could have ran and hate missing multiple days but I didn’t want to make things worse. remember the goal: make it to the start line healthy!

27 Sept - Rest
Scheduled rest day. I ran ~100m at GOTR and that did not go well. I quickly decided running was not in the cards for practice and I would be walking laps with the girls instead.

28 Sept - Rest
Leg felt much better and I intended to run but my stomach was not cooperating when I returned home from work. I’m sure it’s unrelated but Bucky was also having some digestion issues. Below is a photo of us pouting on the floor about it.


29 Sept - Easy 5
Wooo! I finally went for a run. I could still feel my leg but it wasn’t bad enough to impact my form. I tried some strides at the end to see how those felt. No increase in pain during but definitely amped up the pain immediately following. At this point, I knew I’d be able to run the 5K the following day but was unsure if I could “race” it.

30 Sept - JD 5K
My employer was hosting its annual 5K. My plan for the race was PR or bust. My PR from 2018 was 22:37 and I ran 22:47 back in April this year. This is a really small race, just over 100 participants, and not typically super competitive so I didn’t care about my placement as much as the PR. There were a lot of things stacked against the PR, but the risks were low.

During my warm up, I learned that the last mile of the race was on loose gravel. Not ideal for going fast but something I would deal with when I got there.

The race started out fast and I quickly had to step on the brakes. I was averaging 7:05 pace at the half mile which was still a smidge faster than I intended so I slowed down some more. There was one female ahead of me so even though the goal was the PR, I was keeping her in my sights.

Much to my surprise, my first mile was 7:25. Whoops! Slowed down too much. I figured the pr was out the window but I still wanted to hang on and see what happened. I was using the runners in front of me as my guide and slowly chipping away the gap.

My next mile was just under 8. Whoops again! Knowing my time goal was gone definitely took some gas out of the tank. Around this point I heard a volunteer cheer “nice job ladies” and I knew I was about to fall to 3rd. I thought about trying to hang with her but my heart just wasn’t in it.

We quickly approached the loose gravel and I started passing a few folks including what had been the lead female. I tried to cheer her on and get her to go with me but she was doing everything she could to finish at that point.

After a quick loop around the parking lot, I finished in 23:59 and second overall female. Not my best time for sure but, given the circumstances, I’m pretty proud of it. It’s nearly a minute faster than my “return to running” 5K in 2021. My fitness has definitely returned and I know that given a better course, better weather, purposeful training, and perhaps a bit of luck, I’ll get that PR.

My right leg was in pain after the effort but not as bad as I feared. It was probably a blessing that I didn’t go all out in the race or I really could have been hurting.

In case there was any doubt about where I work, it’s pretty evident in this photo

1 Oct - Easy 8
Holy moly! How is it October? And why is it 90 degrees? I was nervous for this run and unsure how my leg would hold up. It did surprisingly well. Anytime I noticed pain, I made sure to focus on my cadence and that seemed to help my body handle the load. It didn’t even act up on the downhills like it did last Sunday. Really hoping this is a sign of forward progress


Finally, for consistency, here’s the latest from runalyze marathon shape. The time predictions went up a couple of minutes each. I’m guessing due to my weekly mileage being half of what it should have been and also the unseasonably warm temps.

 

[GollyGadget]

WDW Marathon Training Week 5/18

In honor of fat bear week, this is the perfect time to mention the fifth thing I’m looking forward to during marathon weekend: the country bear jamboree. Honestly, I never cared much for this attraction and often skipped it. Prior to this past January, the last time I saw the show was 2013 or 2014. I don’t really remember how or why we decided to give it a chance this year. I’m guessing I just wanted to sit down for a bit. Anyway, I loved it! I’m sure the post marathon delirium added to the comedy. I’m really hoping it’s not down for refurb in Jan for the upcoming enhancements.

2 Oct - Easy 6
I had a busy day ahead so snuck this one in before work. My legs were a little stiff when I started but didn’t get any worse. Since I’m running a half marathon on 15 Oct I decided to check out some of the course around miles 9-13. It wasn’t totally unfamiliar but was nice to reacquaint myself with it. Plus, I spotted this deer right next to the trail!

I also did my 20 min glute & hip strength routine.

3 Oct - Easy 90 minutes
Officially this should have been 5K speed repeats but I was still nervous about my leg pain so opted for low risk mileage. Bonus was that I woke up in Chicago and got to run along the lakefront with hundreds of others to watch the sunrise. I’m curious if it’s always this busy on Tuesday am or if the upcoming marathon was bringing more runners out.
I couldn’t find my hair tie in my things. After trying and failing to secure my hair with the hotel pen, I just ran with my hair down. It wasn’t nearly as bad as I expected it to be. Thankfully the Windy City wasn’t all that windy.

I unfortunately aggravated my leg during my warm up and my calves got tight with a few miles to go but I managed 8 easy miles. Then I walked a mile from my hotel to the conference.

4 Oct - Rest
Does dancing all night to your favorite band count as cross training?


5 Oct - Easy 5
After traveling from Des Moines to Chicago to Des Moines to Minneapolis and back to Des Moines over the last three days I was tired. I knew I needed to do something but postponed the marathon tempo by one day hoping that I’d be better rested. I didn’t have any pain at all during this run!

6 Oct - M Tempo 5.5
Once I got out the door, I realized I didn’t have as much time as I needed so I had to reduce the wu and cd by a mile each plus half a mile from the tempo. Something > nothing. Even considering the 40mph gusts and 20 mph sustained winds, my pacing was spot on for all but one mile which was straight into a headwind

7 Oct - Easy 6
Felt some minor pain in my leg again . Good reminder that I ran out of time for my strength the day prior. I didn’t want to do anything too hard on my legs with a long run looming so did 20 min of core instead.

8 Oct - Long 12
Absolutely stunner of a fall day. Started it out by watching the Chicago Marathon then went pumpkin picking. Just before dinner I went for my long run.

I practiced fueling with salted dates again and they were delicious. I’m still not sure about using them as my only source but they’re currently on top of the list.

Now that I have a few weeks of tracking, I put the marathon shape numbers into a graph. After a blip up last week, it’s back down. This week I also realized that the weekly mileage goal changes. I noted that it was 46 a few weeks ago but now it’s “only” 45. A minor change and I’m guessing it will go up again if the predictions get faster. This makes sense to me since the faster you run the more miles you can cover in a time period. I’m just surprised the long run goal isn’t dynamic as well.