ROFR Thread July- Sept 2017 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[ScubaCat]

add on 25 or 20

Forgot to mention, the minimum contract size is 25.

 

[JHank44]

So, after having multiple BLT contracts taken by ROFR, and one passing, I have a few theories/observations. These are just my opinions or observations and shouldn't be taken as gospel. Also, there are exceptions to every rule, and these are generalizations. Please feel free to chime in if you have noticed a trend to ROFR as well. The term "trend" as it applies to ROFR is probably already making some people laugh.

1) DVD targets certain upcoming UY's and buys almost all of them back at the lower price point and even some that are higher if they are in that target UY. If you are looking for a August UY, I think you will be better off waiting until August 1st rolls around to buy one to avoid DVD exercising ROFR.
2) Once that month has begun, say June 1st looking at June UY contracts, those contracts are harder to sell directly by DVD because you could've gotten all 2016 points if you had closed just 1 day before, or May 31st. This is a perk of buying directly. This makes it less attractive to buyers since they now only get 2017 points. DVD will move onto different UY's once that previously targeted UY month begins.
3) DVD started buying back contracts with no 2017 or 2018 points a few months ago if the price was low enough which is just baffling but only on UY's that were coming up and not when the month had started already.
4) DVD LOVES to take contracts where the seller is paying closing costs which really stinks for buyers
5) DVD also LOVES to take contracts where the seller is paying all the MF's
6) Obviously DVD buys back less contracts through ROFR the higher the price goes per point which narrows the gap between direct and resale thereby decreasing their profit margin
7) Certain properties are pretty safe from ROFR no matter the price per point (Poly, Aulani, and VGF...for now)
8) Certain UY's seem to be very popular for ROFR no matter the time of year but less so when that month has begun until the next round of buybacks begins (June and December)

I think we will start to see DVD buying back Aug-Dec for the next few months. August is almost here, so that may be ending soon as these contracts currently listed may not close before August 1st. These are just my theories, and they may start proving incorrect as soon as this is posted. As other have stated, maybe it is just a drunken monkey throwing darts at a board, but I doubt it considering DVD is part of a multi-billion dollar corporation that always seems to be making money. Hopefully at least some of this is right and helps someone looking to buy.

I think your observations are generally correct. The data generally supports your view on UY build-up prior to the month with generally dwindling thereafter. Here is my proxy for inventory starting in Jan 2016 that shows the pattern you suggest:


I think ROFR is rules based but the market is really opaque so it is very difficult to gain a sense of where a certain contract falls at any given point in time.

1) Demand for a Resort & UY - model based on historical direct sales trends and current waitlist (may be none).
2) Inventory - if they have a lot of inventory, they don't need to buy it back unless it is very cheap.
3) NPV of the contract - if the contract is cheap enough they will buy it and hold it no matter what. Roughly in the low $90s for BLT right now. Contracts that have seller pay closing or MFs just lowers the cost of the contract all else equal so more likely to buy it back.
4) "Loadedness" - This fits into NPV as well but it isn't quite clear how DVC values banked points vs. regular points vs. stripped. Sometimes they take something stripped while letting something pass that is loaded for the same price point so it is surprising. It must be related to #1&2 but if anyone has other thoughts please opine.

 

[ywgckp]

I wonder why the process takes weeks? Presumably they have some kind of internal formula to decide which contracts they want and which they don't.

Partly the bureaucracy that goes along with any large corporation, and partly a desire to make the resale process more cumbersome and encourage people to buy direct?

Some of the resale sites post their stats, and it looks like around 5-10% of all resale contracts are bought back. Anecdotally it seems like a higher rate than that here, although I admit I haven't done the math. Are people more prone to posting about contracts Disney took because they are frustrated? Or are people on this site better informed purchasers who get better deals that Disney is more apt to take?

So many questions, so few answers...

 

[BSA018221]

Congrats!!! And @BSA018221 - this looks like positive news for ours. Hope today is your day!

Thanks!

Unfortunately - my wait is now going to be going past the 30 day mark (tomorrow will be day number 31). Still have yet to hear anything from my broker (I checked in last Friday, and was told they were still waiting on Disney).

I have taken to alternating between rocking back and forth in the dark, and mumbling to myself in the fetal position (while furiously refreshing my email account).

I may park outside the DVC offices, blaring Twisted Sister's "We're Not Gonna Take It" as a (not so) subtle attempt to get them to leave my contract alone (a much, MUCH weirder version of the boombox scene from "Say Anything").

Does anyone have any recommendations on DVC/ROFR incantations that can be used?

 

[TexasChick123]

Taken 07.13.17 ---

this is our 2nd one that was TAKEN!!! I can't believe it. geez...what are we doing wrong disney!

Sorry to see this. I also had 2 taken, so I know the frustration. I agree about not bidding higher than what you want to pay. I was extremely flexible with UY in that I would take any UY other than Feb. We already owned Feb, and I wanted to be able to transfer in or out from 2 accounts which you cannot do with the same UY no matter the home resort or number of contracts because it all goes under one membership number. If you are flexible on UY, it might help, but there are no guarantees. I don't even think you were paying under market which is more frustrating, I'm sure. A lot of times they are looking for particular UY's and particular unit numbers, and maybe you just got unlucky that you had both the UY and the unit # they happened to be looking for. Sorry again this happened to you. I can honestly say that I know how it feels. OTOH, we just had one pass with our 3rd try, so don't give up! I think 3rd try will be the charm for you as well!

 

[qv09vvp]

Sorry to see this. I also had 2 taken, so I know the frustration. I agree about not bidding higher than what you want to pay. I was extremely flexible with UY in that I would take any UY other than Feb. We already owned Feb, and I wanted to be able to transfer in or out from 2 accounts which you cannot do with the same UY no matter the home resort or number of contracts because it all goes under one membership number. If you are flexible on UY, it might help, but there are no guarantees. I don't even think you were paying under market which is more frustrating, I'm sure. A lot of times they are looking for particular UY's and particular unit numbers, and maybe you just got unlucky that you had both the UY and the unit # they happened to be looking for. Sorry again this happened to you. I can honestly say that I know how it feels. OTOH, we just had one pass with our 3rd try, so don't give up! I think 3rd try will be the charm for you as well!

This gives me hope!!! Thanks!! I'm from Texas too btw....

 

[nyweller6306]

Passed 7/12

Had to get the formatting correct:
nyweller6306---$77-$16100-200-SSR-Feb-0/16, 0/17, 6/18, 200/19-buyer pays MF '18- sent 6/26, passed 7/12

 

[ScubaCat]

Had to get the formatting correct:
nyweller6306---$77-$16100-200-SSR-Feb-0/16, 0/17, 6/18, 200/19-buyer pays MF '18- sent 6/26, passed 7/12

Congrats!!

 

[JHank44]

I wonder why the process takes weeks? Presumably they have some kind of internal formula to decide which contracts they want and which they don't.

Partly the bureaucracy that goes along with any large corporation, and partly a desire to make the resale process more cumbersome and encourage people to buy direct?

Some of the resale sites post their stats, and it looks like around 5-10% of all resale contracts are bought back. Anecdotally it seems like a higher rate than that here, although I admit I haven't done the math. Are people more prone to posting about contracts Disney took because they are frustrated? Or are people on this site better informed purchasers who get better deals that Disney is more apt to take?

So many questions, so few answers...

They will only have a quick turnaround on contracts they know for certain they don't want. If you know any option theory it is in their advantage to wait until last possible moment to decide on ROFR.

I do think people on here are more well informed and are trying to buy contracts with a higher ROFR probability than layman so rates may be higher on here. That being said,
BLT has been averaging 25%+ ROFR rate on all contracts (OCC deeds not jusdt this thread) the last 6 months after averaging closer to 10-15% the 6 months prior.

 

[CvilleDiane]

Thanks!

Unfortunately - my wait is now going to be going past the 30 day mark (tomorrow will be day number 31). Still have yet to hear anything from my broker (I checked in last Friday, and was told they were still waiting on Disney).

At least you're handling it well. I mean, that's two new coping variations in addition to the email refresh. Improvement!

In all seriousness - I hope today is the day!!

 

[CvilleDiane]

We already owned Feb, and I wanted to be able to transfer in or out from 2 accounts which you cannot do with the same UY no matter the home resort or number of contracts because it all goes under one membership number.

Do you find the transfers useful for point rentals or another reason? I waited to have the same UY as my older direct contract to streamline my points planning, and I've never done a transfer in or out of my account. I'm so curious how you're using transfers as an advantage here.

 

[TexasChick123]

Do you find the transfers useful for point rentals or another reason? I waited to have the same UY as my older direct contract to streamline my points planning, and I've never done a transfer in or out of my account. I'm so curious how you're using transfers as an advantage here.

So far, I've had points transferred in to book at different resorts. I took an AKV transfer for my sister so that I could manage the reservation for her. I also took a VGC transfer so that we could book before the 7 mo. mark for our DL trip so that I could have control over that reservation too. I would like the flexibility to transfer out if I needed to rent as well because a lot of people prefer a transfer to a straight rental if they are owners. Having 2 UY's gives me more options with that.

 

[CvilleDiane]

So far, I've had points transferred in to book at different resorts. I took an AKV transfer for my sister so that I could manage the reservation for her. I also took a VGC transfer so that we could book before the 7 mo. mark for our DL trip so that I could have control over that reservation too. I would like the flexibility to transfer out if I needed to rent as well because a lot of people prefer a transfer to a straight rental if they are owners. Having 2 UY's gives me more options with that.

That makes sense. Thanks for the explanation!

 

[BSA018221]

Welp, this is the story of my life:

Disney has lost my contract - and they are attempting to locate it (at the 32 day mark)....

If they even try to take it at this point, angry noises will be shouted?

 

[disfamof6]

Welp, this is the story of my life:

Disney has lost my contract - and they are attempting to locate it (at the 32 day mark)....

If they even try to take it at this point, angry noises will be shouted?[/QUOTE

I'm so sorry! Hopefully they find it and just pass you fast.

 

[hockeykris1]

Taken 07.13.17 ---

this is our 2nd one that was TAKEN!!! I can't believe it. geez...what are we doing wrong disney!

That sucks. I just passed with SSR @ $80/pt 180 pts. I cant figure this ROFR thing out!

 

[amccu18007]

Welp, this is the story of my life:

Disney has lost my contract - and they are attempting to locate it (at the 32 day mark)....

If they even try to take it at this point, angry noises will be shouted?

This just stinks! I bet they find it and it passes tomorrow. Another member had their's lost and they passed it the same day. I wish you luck and a speedy response!

 

[Gryhndmom]

Welp, this is the story of my life:

Disney has lost my contract - and they are attempting to locate it (at the 32 day mark)....

If they even try to take it at this point, angry noises will be shouted?

That just sucks.....hoping now they won't take it ! Good luck !

 

[BSA018221]

This just stinks! I bet they find it and it passes tomorrow. Another member had their's lost and they passed it the same day. I wish you luck and a speedy response!

Thanks!

Just heard back from broker; Disney just completely lost the file (couldn't track it down at all). My broker has resubmitted it, and Disney will put it back in the queue (on a rush basis)...on Monday.

Closing was originally to be 8/7 - I have a feeling that isn't going to happen (if they even let me have the contract). Also, a backup deal I was looking at (in case this one is taken), just had an approved offer submitted, so I pray mine passes, or else it's back to whatever is before square one.

 

[qv09vvp]

That sucks. I just passed with SSR @ $80/pt 180 pts. I cant figure this ROFR thing out!

what! what use year if you dont mind me asking?