ROFR Gap Update through Q2 21

[KAngela]

Click here to see my first post on this, that explains some of my logic and methodology. I updated this with Q2 numbers, again and always thanks to Pangyal's excellent ROFR thread and all of the nice people who are so kind as to put their data on there. Here's how the gap evolved over the past 3 months:

AKV's lowest passing average has been 100 $/pt, up a little over 5 $/pt from pre-pandemic. Highest ROFR is 113 $/pt, up almost 7 $/pt. Note that this is an increase from where we were, as Q2 had a very high 117 $/pt ROFR. I think we're seeing DVD push up the AKV value with these numbers.

BLT continues to be the biggest climber: lowest passing is up to 144 $/pt, up 16 $/pt from before, and highest ROFR averages almost 153 $/pt, up over 20 $/pt since pre-pandemic.

OKW's lowest passing contracts are right at 92 $/pt, flat for some time. Highest ROFR is way up, though, and sits at almost 104 $/pt. Again, there's skew in OKW numbers.

SSR is starting to show some growth; while the lowest pass average is up to 96 $/pt, the highest ROFR has averaged a whopping 111 $/pt since Q4 2020, and the highest point taken in Q2 was 128 $/pt. DVD is pushing point costs up here, too.

VGF now has enough data to do some number crunching, so I include it here. The lowest pass averaged 145 $/pt in the "before times", and it's averaged 153 $/pt after. The highest ROFR is very close to both of these, at 146 $/pt before and 158 $/pt after. Whether it's a fluke or a floor, in 2021 the highest ROFR here has been 160 $/pt contracts.

When you graph these, and of course that is a thing that I do, it looks like AKV, OKW, and VGF are all three creeping up post-pandemic. BLT is flat, but higher after than before, while SSR is pretty stable until the huge jump in Q2.

What the future brings, we don't know, but I can take a few guesses about where it might be headed!

 

[Sandisw]

Thanks. It would be so nice if there was an easy way to gather data on more contracts vs what is posted here.

But it is a good place for start for people to have an idea!!

 

[KAngela]

Yeah, but to have something like that it would need to present utility to a non-diffuse group of people. So you could imagine that agents who get a commission might want something like that available, or maybe DVD, but the biggest beneficiaries would be the buyers, who by their nature aren't a uniform group. So you end up with some half-wit like me grabbing some non-representative numbers and fumbling around with them and hoping for the best.

It does give you some idea of where trends are going, though. I'd say we can expect more price hikes on direct within the next 12 months.

 

[eMoneyBug]

Good stuff, is the OKW skew because some are 2042 and some 2057 are you've sorted that out in the data already.

I guess yeah for existing owners already to have some appreciation in value even tho we are still in an uncertain semi post pandemic world.

 

[KAngela]

The 2057 are a different category, "OKW Extended." There's not enough data on them to do anything with it, though. I think that was a failed experiment back in the day and not a lot of people jumped on it.

 

[hexfetton]

How do you determine the OKW extended contracts? We bought our’s when it was offered but I have no idea how many other people did.

 

[kilik64]

How do you determine the OKW extended contracts? We bought our’s when it was offered but I have no idea how many other people did.

For this, its based on what people report on the rofr thread. They will typically list it on there as OKW-E or Extended. They are semi rare as pointed out, not a ton of people did it. Estimates (which could be wildly off) peg it around 20-25% of people bought it. I think that might be high, but either way, it wasnt a ton of people who did. If you buy direct now you get the 2057 expiration and if you buy a non already extended okw resale contract, DVD makes the current owner sign a quit claim deed regarding the ext. There's some thought that if you are a original 2042 owner and you never signed the quit claim, that you'll get automatically extended to 2057, guess people will find out in 2042 on that.

 

[hexfetton]

For this, its based on what people report on the rofr thread. They will typically list it on there as OKW-E or Extended. They are semi rare as pointed out, not a ton of people did it. Estimates (which could be wildly off) peg it around 20-25% of people bought it. I think that might be high, but either way, it wasnt a ton of people who did. If you buy direct now you get the 2057 expiration and if you buy a non already extended okw resale contract, DVD makes the current owner sign a quit claim deed regarding the ext. There's some thought that if you are a original 2042 owner and you never signed the quit claim, that you'll get automatically extended to 2057, guess people will find out in 2042 on that.

Thanks. We added on in 2011 and they mentioned that it was 2057 like our initial purchases that we extended. I thought it was a good deal at the time but if original owners get it by not signing a piece of paper, why did I bother? Whatever, it is my kid’s problem to figure out why their inheritance is lower in cash and higher in points.