Riviera v Saratoga Resale

[carli_h]

I have a question, that no one truly knows the answer to, but... which in 10 years time do you think (or I should probably say guess) will have a higher resale value, a small contract at Riviera or Saratoga?

I am aware DVC shouldn’t be seen as a financial investment as both may have no monetary value, but I am genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Quite a few people have said that Riviera will not retain value in comparison to the L14 due to the resale restrictions. However I feel small Riviera contracts *could* have a comparable resale value to SSR. That said I could be missing something entirely... I am fairly new to all of this.

(I know I can be seen as comparing apples to pears given the different expiry dates and current direct prices are approx $10-20pp different taking into account Riviera incentives)

I hope I don’t cause any offence as I do like SSR and had a contract taken in ROFR.

 

[stewart715]

There is no way to know. If Riviera turns out to be another Beach Club or even BoardWalk (in terms of desirability), it will probably be Riviera. Consider this: no one buys Beach Club points to stay at Saratoga or Bay Lake Tower. So, it really will end up on how good the Riviera experience is. But my guess is that Riviera will have a higher price per point.

 

[D-Trick]

10 years from now, the only people who will be buying Riviera resale contracts are people who will KNOW they want to buy there, given the restrictions. The same goes for Reflections. At the same time, those contract will still have 40+ years left, while SSR will be down to 25, with only 13 years of the 2042 L14 left to use your points at.

If I were to venture a guess, I would say that Riviera will still be higher. Think of all the changes coming to Epcot and HS and where those parks will be in 10 years. Riviera has skyliner access to both of them.

 

[JETSDAD]

I'd guess Riviera. 10 years from now I think that buyers will be quite hesitant to buy BWV or BCV so that leaves Riviera for that general area (assuming nothing else is built there in the meantime). Those who buy BCV and BWV are typically doing so to be in the Epcot area and are buying to mostly stay at their home resort so being restricted to that resort may not be seen as such a downfall.

 

[stewart715]

Nothing against SSR or OKW. I haven't stayed at OKW but I have stayed at SSR. The place is beautiful and we had an amazing time. It feels very WDW to me. But, it is far removed from the parks, despite walkable to DS.

That being said, all the DVC accommodations have pretty high end finishings with exception of SSR, OKW and Boulder Ridge. They are nice but they aren't what you get at BWV or VGF.

VGF is expensive because well, it's the Grand Floridian (a 5 star resort with views of Cinderella Castle).

PVB and BLT are expensive because of their proximity to Magic Kingdom.

BCV and BWV are expensive because of their proximity to entertainment, Epcot and HS.

Riviera will likely follow suit as it too also has finishings much nicer than SSR/OKW and has close proximity (Skyliner) to Epcot, the boardwalk and HS.

I was a big proponent of Rivera resale being horribly priced, but I have changed my opinion on this. At end of day you will have 4-5 star accommodations in close proximity to entertainment at WDW. My guess is it resells immediately for no less than $135 per point.

And unfortunately, as beautiful as they are, OKW and SSR have been long viewed as the "leftover" rooms at WDW, as in "well, if we can't get a room at Boardwalk last minute, theres always Saratoga or Old Key." Again due to its size and location its priced the way it is because its simply not a premium DVC resort.

 

[TexasChick123]

I think Riviera resale will hold its own. I definitely think it’ll be higher than SSR. You can weigh the ability to stay in other L14 resorts against having 11 month priority at RR. I think being able to book at a nice resort will be more desirable than hoping to switch at 7 months as many SSR owners now claim to be doing routinely on the boards. I thought about this for months before we purchased. Despite all the negative changes, people are still going to Disney. They raised the AP prices at DL by a crazy amount, and what happened? People complained and complained and then renewed at the higher price. It’s the most popular theme park in the world, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. People will buy Riviera resale to stay there at the typical discount versus direct, as all resale is, and consider it a win to stay at a nice resort with great transportation options to 2 parks and a longer contract life.

 

[crvetter]

I think Riviera resale will hold its own. I definitely think it’ll be higher than SSR. You can weigh the ability to stay in other L14 resorts against having 11 month priority at RR. I think being able to book at a nice resort will be more desirable than hoping to switch at 7 months as many SSR owners now claim to be doing routinely on the boards. I thought about this for months before we purchased. Despite all the negative changes, people are still going to Disney. They raised the AP prices at DL by a crazy amount, and what happened? People complained and complained and then renewed at the higher price. It’s the most popular theme park in the world, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. People will buy Riviera resale to stay there at the typical discount versus direct, as all resale is, and consider it a win to stay at a nice resort with great transportation options to 2 parks and a longer contract life.

I will also add to this in 10 years BRV, BWV, and BCV will all only have about 10 years left as being a part of DVC. So the value of trading into L14 will start to diminish because a resale buyer will realize 2 desirable locations will be disappearing after another 10 years. Essentially the value added by trading to other resorts is going to start diminishing as the clock starts clicking to 2042.

So to me it seems almost certain that DRR will be higher than SSR. Also at this point more of VGF, BLT, PVB, and CCV will be purchased by owners intending to mostly stay there. Hurting the 7 month window switch even more.

 

[stewart715]

I will also add to this in 10 years BRV, BWV, and BCV will all only have about 10 years left as being a part of DVC. So the value of trading into L14 will start to diminish because a resale buyer will realize 2 desirable locations will be disappearing after another 10 years. Essentially the value added by trading to other resorts is going to start diminishing as the clock starts clicking to 2042.

Yes and no. The values of BWV and others will start to plateau off and then decrease but you will still be able to trade into those resorts with points long after 2042 (when the resorts are renewed with new deeds/contracts). The resorts aren't going away in 2042.

 

[crvetter]

Yes and no. The values of BWV and others will start to plateau off and then decrease but you will still be able to trade into those resorts with points long after 2042 (when the resorts are renewed with new deeds/contracts). The resorts aren't going away in 2042.

Yeah but the resale buyer won't be able to if the system remains as is so they will go away to resale owners of the L14 just not direct owners and those before 1/19/19. So the value added to SSR because it can trade into the L14 starts to diminish as we get closer to 2042. My comment stands, and I might be missing something on your comment because this hypothetical resale buyer won't be able to trade into the new resorts.

 

[TexasChick123]

I will also add to this in 10 years BRV, BWV, and BCV will all only have about 10 years left as being a part of DVC. So the value of trading into L14 will start to diminish because a resale buyer will realize 2 desirable locations will be disappearing after another 10 years. Essentially the value added by trading to other resorts is going to start diminishing as the clock starts clicking to 2042.

So to me it seems almost certain that DRR will be higher than SSR. Also at this point more of VGF, BLT, PVB, and CCV will be purchased by owners intending to mostly stay there. Hurting the 7 month window switch even more.

We have never used our VGF points anywhere except VGF. The only points we’ve used elsewhere to date are the BLT points we bought for $100pp. Going forward, we’ll probably stick to our home resorts. I like them more than the ones I don’t own, so why switch anymore?

Yes and no. The values of BWV and others will start to plateau off and then decrease but you will still be able to trade into those resorts with points long after 2042 (when the resorts are renewed with new deeds/contracts). The resorts aren't going away in 2042.

And at that point you can buy them brand new for $250-$300pp.

You will not be able to trade in BWV and BCV after 2042 unless you buy direct once those resorts expire. It will be like they closed forever for resale buyers looking for the 7-month switch. They’ll have the new restrictions on them like Riviera does.

 

[stewart715]

Yeah but the resale buyer won't be able to if the system remains as is so they will go away to resale owners of the L14 just not direct owners and those before 1/19/19. So the value added to SSR because it can trade into the L14 starts to diminish as we get closer to 2042. My comment stands, and I might be missing something on your comment because this hypothetical resale buyer won't be able to trade into the new resorts.

Oh duh, sorry you're right. I wonder how that will work with existing contracts bought resale. Will resale SSR contracts (before restrictions) be able to book BWV in 2043? Hm. I guess maybe because they too can book at Riviera as well. But yeah, you're right about diminishing value.

 

[crvetter]

Oh duh, sorry you're right. I wonder how that will work with existing contracts bought resale. Will resale SSR contracts (before restrictions) be able to book BWV in 2043? Hm. I guess maybe because they too can book at Riviera as well. But yeah, you're right about diminishing value.

I would assume the pre-1/19/19 contracts will be able to book. The wording is such that those will be able to continue booking at future resorts in DVC. Though I suppose Disney could try anything on their end. It's going to get interesting in 10 years or so what the relative values of contracts are. I suspect the spread between SSR/OKW/AKV/AUL vs the other others is going to open up like crazy.

 

[zavandor]

It they'll really build the Epcot gate resort, DRR will bite the dust.

 

[crvetter]

It they'll really build the Epcot gate resort, DRR will bite the dust.

Perhaps but I would guess not entirely. An Epcot gate resort might be nice but it won't be like VGC is a gate resort to DCA or Tokyo MiraCosta to DisneySea, which the parks will built with these hotels in mind. Also both resorts are very small so no hotel is far from all the amenities. The reason I say this is the front part of Epcot is quite isolated, what amenities will it offer over DRR. It will require a monorail to anything (same as DRR requiring the Skyliner). But DRR will be more direct access to the Epcot IG and HS and will offer a much larger green space (not looking at a vast amount of cars). For people being upset that CBR will look at DRR I would much rather have that parking lots. I would bet we never see the gate resort until that area is built up quite a bit, if it was truly as desirable I don't see why DVC didn't build it instead of DRR or Reflections first.

The gate resort worked really well for GCH and the international parks because they were incorporated with the Downtown Disney District and at the gates of the parks.

If anything BCV 2.0 will hurt DRR the most IMO and BWV 2.0 will be a runner up. Though DRR will have room size over BWV 2.0 (don't see them increasing room size here because the hotel and villa side are to integrated). I could see them really expanding BCV 2.0 though.

 

[zavandor]

if it was truly as desirable I don't see why DVC didn't build it instead of DRR or Reflections

For the very reasons people think DRR will hold its value. Currently DRR is the only long term option for a resort with easy access to Epcot. It would be a much harder sell at $188 it there were another resort in walking distance, or even with an exclusive gate to the park.
The Epcot gate resort will be in walking distance to Epcot and monorail to MK which beats every day gondola to two parks.
I'm not saying they're 100% going to build it, it would have made more sense to do the central spine redesign at the same time of a new resort, however they might be doing the redesign with it already in mind. And if they are going to build both DRR and the Epcot gate resort, to sell DRR first makes more sense.

 

[ELMC]

I agree with the consensus here, but for a very different reason. DRR resale will be higher than SSR in ten years for the primary reason that it started from a higher price point. All the other reasons given here are good ones, but I feel they are ancillary.

They're all great resorts, they all appeal to different people for different reasons, and there are enough buyers to go around for each. I'm bearish on DVC at its current price points. But at $110-120 per point I'm buying Riviera all day long, regardless of restrictions. (Although they need to get their maintenance fees under control.) I'm guessing other people feel this way as well, and that will create a price support at some yet undetermined level for DDR just as it has been set for all the other resorts on the resale market.

 

[The Jackal]

Somehow VGF has the lowest dues of all WDW resorts. RIV is starting out as the highest at WDW. Somehow VGF dues did not go up much when all the rest did when DVC agreed to higher wages for the employees.

 

[DougEMG]

I agree with the consensus here, but for a very different reason. DRR resale will be higher than SSR in ten years for the primary reason that it started from a higher price point. All the other reasons given here are good ones, but I feel they are ancillary.

They're all great resorts, they all appeal to different people for different reasons, and there are enough buyers to go around for each. I'm bearish on DVC at its current price points. But at $110-120 per point I'm buying Riviera all day long, regardless of restrictions. (Although they need to get their maintenance fees under control.) I'm guessing other people feel this way as well, and that will create a price support at some yet undetermined level for DDR just as it has been set for all the other resorts on the resale market.

For $110-120 I would also buy resale at the Riviera. I would buy it for when my BWV points expire and would only use the points to book at the Riviera.

So I now think Riviera will be selling for higher than SSR.

The big thing I would keep an eye on is how easy or hard to becomes to book studios there at 10-11 months.

 

[scot@dvcstore]

I think when Riviera becomes available on the resale market they will sell very well with the majority of the buyers purchasing to be able to book the 7-11 month window at Riviera.

 

[mab2012]

I think when Riviera becomes available on the resale market they will sell very well with the majority of the buyers purchasing to be able to book the 7-11 month window at Riviera.

They had better ALL be purchasing for the 7-11 month window at Rivera, or there are going to be some seriously unhappy Rivera resale owners.