Riviera Resale

[CastAStone]

You left out the part when I said in 10 years....and yes in 10 years it will be 11-12 until the 2042's roll, but you get the point.

To compare OKW and SSR to Riviera is sort of laughable and I like the SSR remodel a lot. But just for kicks I'll point the walk to the bus spot to then take a 15-25 minute ride on a bus is longer than the skyliner ride to Epcot or HS.... That doesn't even take into account the level of accomodation that goes way beyond the finishes which can always be updated. Murphy bed in a studio is a plus as the couches are fine for kids but barely a bed and much more of a hassle to set up. Then you have the double shower option which no resort rooms have in standard rooms let alone other DVC studios.

Anyone can trade into SSR and OKW too. IF you want a studio or 2 BR at Riviera, especially a standard, you're going to have to own there, same with CCV. Really bad comp, sorry.

That’s your opinion! Don’t call mine laughable, this isn’t that kind of place.

 

[CP3uhoh]

People here often seem to conflate the economics of buying direct from Disney and financing and calculating at what time am I "in the money" vs buying a resale contract with cash which many times comes with a year or more worth of points that have already had the dues paid.

We just got one of those 75 point contracts for $137/point. We got 73 points for 2020 which the dues were already paid. We have a 4 night stay booked for next year. Our total out of pocket was something like $10,800. If you say you'd pay $400 a night to stay there and we've paid much more to stay at the Contemporary and Beach Club in our last to trips to WDW, that's $1,600. That's 15% of the total cost of the contract and we have 49 years to go.....This isn't exactly advanced calculus.

 

[CP3uhoh]

You and I have run circles around on this topic before but I think the poster overestimates the extent to which BCV and BWV prices will impact Riviera prices. It’s great that people are getting BLT like prices for their Riviera contracts now but the market still isn’t liquid. It’s beginning to get there. We will know a lot more I think in the late winter or spring about where Riviera’s resale will slot in vis-a-vis the other resorts. No doubt it will eventually cost more than the 2042 resorts but that’s because it’s value will eventually be indisputably higher. Would people on balance rather have 21 years of Beach Club with the ability to move or 49 years of only Riviera? I’m betting Beach Club! When it’s 12 and 40? I’ll bet Riviera.

I think the discrepancy here is you seem very focused on what has more value TODAY, a BCV or BWV contract or Riviera...I'm simply making points on the value of the riviera contract on the resale market over the life of the contract based on the price I paid as well as what the market appears to bare. I love BCV and BWV, I'm not comparing, I only brought them up because in 10 years, which is not a long time to hold one of these contracts, the value will be higher than today and the resale restrictions which seem to be may people's bugaboo won't be such an outlier with at least on other new resort and probably 2-3 as well as some coming up in about 10 years from that point that will have those restrictions placed on them as well.

 

[RoseGold]

This resort will also be impossible to book once it sells out. You won't be able to "book cash" on the hotel side. 5% or whatever will be Disney's to sell but that's nothing compared to Beach Club, Grand Floridian etc...So if you want to stay there you're going to have to buy points or come to someone that has them to rent.

At this rate, that could take a few years. And CB is next door, so you could just stay there -- it's an arguably better Skyliner location anyway.

If all of that fails, AoA and Pop are a stop up, thousands more beds there. IMO, the next Skyliner expansion will be Coronado, and that's another beast. So, it's not like it's going to be hard to get a Skyliner room for cash. IMO, not a great reason to buy into DVC at all.

 

[CP3uhoh]

That’s your opinion! Don’t call mine laughable, this isn’t that kind of place.

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to insult and I understand why using a term like laughable is sort of instigating so again I apologize. I would add that your opinion of the resort(s) is certainly valid but things like number of showers and commute times to parks are facts.

For me, in 5 years I'm going to have 2 teenage daughters and wife traveling for at least some of these trips. The two showers matter! For people with boys or one child, not a game changer. I do know that while SSR has a decent proximity to Disney Springs, that and OKW have what has to be considered the worst "commute" on property now since the Skyliner has even brought some of the value resorts "closer" to at least 2 of the parks. That matters to me. Value is in the eye of the beholder to your point and again I apologize for using laughable.

Finally, you pointed out that the SSR and OKW contracts don't hold up well on the resale market. I think some of those buyers from a decade ago may disagree. Expecting a "gain" like that to continue is unlikely, sure, but inflation is real.

 

[gisele2]

For people with boys or one child, not a game changer

In my opinion teenage boys or girls are using the bathroom way longer than their parents...So 2 showers /bathrooms is a minimum.

 

[sethschroeder]

You and I have run circles around on this topic before but I think the poster overestimates the extent to which BCV and BWV prices will impact Riviera prices.

People want Epcot and it will come down to a 10 year contract or RIV.

Then later it will come down to a higher cost BWV/BCV at 50 years or cheaper RIV (both cost and point charts).

There will be RIV people and then a percentage of Epcot people who buy. It's not like MK with a huge variety of resorts with long contracts.

 

[Brianstl]

My guess as Riviera sells out Disney announces that they will be converting portions of Yacht Club to DVC. The convention business is going to be permanently damaged. Converting rooms that will be less valuable now as convention center hotel rooms to high priced Crescent Lake DVC villas just makes too much sense. That will be the Epcot DVC Resort everyone wants then.

 

[sethschroeder]

My guess as Riviera sells out Disney announces that they will be converting portions of Yacht Club to DVC. The convention business is going to be permanently damaged. Converting rooms that will be less valuable now as convention center hotel rooms to high priced Crescent Lake DVC villas just makes too much sense. That will be the Epcot DVC Resort everyone wants then.

Eh they go back to Reflections I think first.

Also they just did new room refurbs at Yacht like 3 years ago.

I think 2030/35 is the earliest they would tackle Yacht Club if they do.

Also its not like Yacht Club is massive the convention size is like 100k sqft. It's like Coronado 200k, Cont/Yacht 100k, VGF/BWV sub 50k could be off

Do they rip out the convention hall for a DVC tower? I think it's going to be a while before we get a serious answer.

You can think they won't return but it might also be possible more companies do more generous remote work and they only come together for a singular sales kickoff or company convention a single time of year.

 

[Ginamarie]

Eh they go back to Reflections I think first.

Also they just did new room refurbs at Yacht like 3 years ago.

I think 2030/35 is the earliest they would tackle Yacht Club if they do.

Also its not like Yacht Club is massive the convention size is like 100k sqft. It's like Coronado 200k, Cont/Yacht 100k, VGF/BWV sub 50k could be off

Do they rip out the convention hall for a DVC tower? I think it's going to be a while before we get a serious answer.

You can think they won't return but it might also be possible more companies do more generous remote work and they only come together for a singular sales kickoff or company convention a single time of year.

yeah- those spaces are used for more than just conventions though- you’re looking at all kinds of weddings and events that use the space. I don’t think they’re swapping the space at Yacht Club.

 

[Brianstl]

Eh they go back to Reflections I think first.

Also they just did new room refurbs at Yacht like 3 years ago.

I think 2030/35 is the earliest they would tackle Yacht Club if they do.

Also its not like Yacht Club is massive the convention size is like 100k sqft. It's like Coronado 200k, Cont/Yacht 100k, VGF/BWV sub 50k could be off

Do they rip out the convention hall for a DVC tower? I think it's going to be a while before we get a serious answer.

You can think they won't return but it might also be possible more companies do more generous remote work and they only come together for a singular sales kickoff or company convention a single time of year.

I think reflections eventually gets built, but I think over the next 2-4 years DVC will look to do a cheaper, smaller alternative they know will sell quick at a premium.

 

[sethschroeder]

I think reflections eventually gets built, but I think over the next 2-4 years DVC will look to do a cheaper, smaller alternative they know will sell quick at a premium.

Issue is the hotel side just invested in redoing rooms at GF, POLY, YC, WL.

What are you doing with the conference center than for Yacht Club if the rooms are moved to DVC? Are you ripping it down and having a YC 2.0 right away as well or is building on to the resort like BCV going to occur (what about SAB then and capacity issues?).

Never really thought of it but possibly even Jambo gets flipped.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Issue is the hotel side just invested in redoing rooms at GF, POLY, YC, WL.

What are you doing with the conference center than for Yacht Club if the rooms are moved to DVC? Are you ripping it down and having a YC 2.0 right away as well or is building on to the resort like BCV going to occur (what about SAB then and capacity issues?).

Never really thought of it but possibly even Jambo gets flipped.

I'm not sure I can see Jambo getting flipped. AKV has pretty good availability already, adding more to AKV just makes it more and more similar to Saratoga with Availability. Only way I believe they do this and make it easier to sell is if they expand the skyliner to AKV. I think if anything reflections just becomes another add on to WL like Boulder Ridge and not as extravagant as Reflections was supposed to be. I also see other options are to tear down the convention center at Contemporary and build a BLT 2 or possibly a VGF 2 addition.

I still think the most likely is a lower cost addition to WL in the reflection location is the next step.

 

[sethschroeder]

I'm not sure I can see Jambo getting flipped. AKV has pretty good availability already, adding more to AKV just makes it more and more similar to Saratoga with Availability.

If a larger % of rooms are Club and Value levels though there would be demand and it would be filled more quickly. The "excess" of rooms comes more so from how big Kidani is not Jambo. Also I could see Disney wanting to remove parts of that resort from CASH so they just push it to DVC.

People are consistently buying the resort right now even without the Skyliner as well.

VGF 2

I think that expansion more likely goes to a new resort that is on the walking path and between VGF and MK.

 

[RivShore]

I think that expansion more likely goes to a new resort that is on the walking path and between VGF and MK.

I think buildable land may be a problem for any new MK resorts. If I remember correctly, the original Riviera concept was going to go there and was cancelled because all the land was mush.

 

[RebelScum]

My guess as Riviera sells out Disney announces that they will be converting portions of Yacht Club to DVC. The convention business is going to be permanently damaged. Converting rooms that will be less valuable now as convention center hotel rooms to high priced Crescent Lake DVC villas just makes too much sense. That will be the Epcot DVC Resort everyone wants then.

Sign me up for that resort!

 

[Brianstl]

Issue is the hotel side just invested in redoing rooms at GF, POLY, YC, WL.

What are you doing with the conference center than for Yacht Club if the rooms are moved to DVC? Are you ripping it down and having a YC 2.0 right away as well or is building on to the resort like BCV going to occur (what about SAB then and capacity issues?).

Never really thought of it but possibly even Jambo gets flipped.

I don't think the investment they put into rooms at Yacht Club will matter to them in 2-4 years. Why do they have to do anything with the conference center right away? They left a hotel half built for years, I don't think a conference center that is not being used is going to bother them for a few years.

Disney has lost huge amounts of revenue over the past year. They are going to look for ways to recoup as much of that revenue with the lowest investment possible over the coming years. The easiest way for the DVC division to do that is to do a partial conversion at an existing resort they know will sell quickly at a premium price. Yacht Club not only checks those boxes, it is the only deluxe resort without DVC currently.

 

[sethschroeder]

Why do they have to do anything with the conference center right away?

Well they are not going to just have it sitting there for years I doubt. So what is the plan for it? You just removed all the rooms attached to it so you are removing a profit generating part of your business. You also are not having the cash rooms at the back while DVC is along the lake so it would be more DVC rooms.

They left a hotel half built for years

Except that was a half built value resort and its not half built its already built and operating. They just used it as well for the NBA and however millions they made from that.

The easiest way for the DVC division to do that is to do a partial conversion at an existing resort they know will sell quickly at a premium price.

Why is the cash side giving up the rooms and destroying the conference center? CCV was able to be converted because WL is considered the bottom of the Deluxe category (lowest price with AKL) and the location is non-prime for MK as there are 3 Deluxe Hotels on the monorail.

Disney has lost huge amounts of revenue over the past year.

DVC =/= Disney though and DVC has its own budget. DVC also is going to being making lots of money off RIV and DLT over the next 3-5 years. DVC is also not poor and while its slowed down they did not have a negative cashflow I doubt for their division.

Disney even just used the Yacht Club conference hall during this past year to drive lots of revenue for WDW even during the pandemic.

Yacht Club not only checks those boxes, it is the only deluxe resort without DVC currently.

Exactly why eventually it will likely get a building behind the current location that would be stand alone or part of a conversion.

 

[Brianstl]

Well they are not going to just have it sitting there for years I doubt. So what is the plan for it? You just removed all the rooms attached to it so you are removing a profit generating part of your business. You also are not having the cash rooms at the back while DVC is along the lake so it would be more DVC rooms.



Except that was a half built value resort and its not half built its already built and operating. They just used it as well for the NBA and however millions they made from that.



Why is the cash side giving up the rooms and destroying the conference center? CCV was able to be converted because WL is considered the bottom of the Deluxe category (lowest price with AKL) and the location is non-prime for MK as there are 3 Deluxe Hotels on the monorail.



DVC =/= Disney though and DVC has its own budget. DVC also is going to being making lots of money off RIV and DLT over the next 3-5 years. DVC is also not poor and while its slowed down they did not have a negative cashflow I doubt for their division.

Disney even just used the Yacht Club conference hall during this past year to drive lots of revenue for WDW even during the pandemic.



Exactly why eventually it will likely get a building behind the current location that would be stand alone or part of a conversion.

You may have had a point with CCV if they hadn't done the same thing at Poly at a prime location on the monorail.

We will see what happens over the next few years.

 

[sethschroeder]

You may have had a point with CCV if they hadn't done the same thing at Poly at a prime location on the monorail.

Except no convention center, far side of the resort on parking lots, and they have roughly 500 rooms still at Poly cash. At Yacht Club they only have 600 rooms to start with and again the convection center. So as I pointed out small conversion of Yacht Club (50-100 rooms at far end of resort) which some will be premium lake view on point charts and then you build behind the current Yacht Club another building housing the remainder of the rooms for DVC.

There would be some redoing of parking lots and setups though building those extra rooms possibly putting it where the overflow parking is right now.