Potentially new member - big philosophical question

Patmcpsu

Earning My Ears
Joined
Jan 28, 2023
I have been considering DVC for some time and was dangerously close to making an offer on a resale contract last night (after multiple beers). However, I didn’t want to make a big financial commitment without being totally certain (and sober).

I consider myself a casual Disney fan; 38 years old with a wife and two kids (ages 3 and 1). I see a lot of Disney trips in my future, but probably just every-other-year or even every 3rd year. Even then DVC seems like it makes sense…

… until I ran the numbers on the spreadsheet. Assuming 3% inflation and room rates are always $500/nt (plus inflation) it just about breaks even after maintenance is factored in. It also assumes zero resale value which we know won’t be true (about 10 years would be left on the AKV/SSR contracts after my youngest are out of college).

This still feels like I would come out slightly ahead, staying in villas instead of studios, and give me the “peace of mind” knowing hotel prices are locked in for most of my adult life.

However, part of me is wondering if locking in now is during a historically expensive time.

My question is: why do you own DVC? Do you see it being financially savvy? Is it emotional (assurance, belonging to a group)?
 
We bought in 2011 resale and have 100 points between blt and vwl. We stay in studios and have been going every other year. I originally tracked my payback and with how we used our points it took about 4 years, which I realize isn’t very likely now. When you consider the value the product retains it does make it easier to consider.

We’ve been able to visit way more frequently and having the points has encouraged us to vacation, which has enabled many wonderful trips and memories. This is why we bought. But it did appear to make some financial sense to us at the time also. I had spreadsheets but it didn’t necessarily feel like a slam dunk and if I remember I was expecting to payback in 11 years when we made the leap.

Eta: see you’re looking resale. Disregard this note.
Not sure if you’re evaluating direct or resale. Direct is hard to pencil and some folks find value in other aspects of the direct purchase outside the ROI on a room.
 
I did the spreadsheet thing myself. We go every year. We figured, using time value of money, that we saved money over slightly discounted (10-20%) off rack rate Disney deluxe hotel prices after trip #5. But, resale when we bought BLT was about half of what it is now, and room rates were $400 a night, so the spread was a lot wider. We also assumed an ownership window of 15-18 years, which would leave the points with 20+ years left when we sold.

As to a current spreadsheet, absolutely assume a straight increase in prices for both rooms and DVC dues, using the same figure for the time value of money, current resale pricing, etc... But, you might want to do it over a horizon of 12-14 years instead of 22 years. The widely used figure for average ownership is 10-12 years. When your children hit high school, you'll likely find it increasingly difficult to schedule family trips around the children's events. And, you'll need to ballpark a price the points will be worth at the end of your ownership. Even with 10 years left, they'll still have value because, by that point, rack rate will be HUGE and those points still represent lodging at a discount.
 
We went resale in 2019 and feel we have got lots of value out of our contract. We go annually and were previously renting points to stay at BCV. Every year the amount we were paying to rent was going up by quite a bit. I also wanted to be in charge of our own reservations. So we finally bought our own contract and couldn’t be happier. We have stayed at AKV, BCV, Vero Beach, Saratoga and Poly thanks to our DVC membership. We would never ever pay WDW cash rates to stay deluxe, so for us this is a way to stay at beautiful resorts for a more reasonable price.

When we ran the numbers for us, it was going to be about 8 trips before we recouped the cost of what we put in. We got a Poly contract which had a nice long expiration date so we will hopefully get lots of enjoyment past those 8 years with grandkids in the future.

Another plus for us was that the years we didn’t go, we could rent the points and not lose money. We’ve only missed one trip (2021, thanks Covid) but renting out those points paid for almost the entirety of 2022’s trip. I wouldn’t buy with the intent to rent, but having it as a backup option is a consideration.
 
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I'll string some thoughts out, some may be pro buy and some anti buy:

1. We joined because we knew we'd have a pretty regular trip schedule to follow, and some of those trips overlap with busyish times (early-mid December). There may be some financial sense to it because hotels can shoot up that time of year but it was partly for knowing we could commit to having a place to stay that time of year and most importantly, where we want to stay

2. Location - you mention AKV/SSR so maybe this isn't important to you, but we wanted access to resorts neighboring parks, and other than swan/dolphin, you aren't going to stay in a park area without a stiff cash outlay. I know occasionally you can find good deals and packages, but the price per night at the contemporary or poly feels a lot worse than the points/dues costs. I know those rooms are higher points than an SSR, so it's all a cost analysis for what you may plan to buy.

3. Motivation to travel - I like others on the board work a job where I could (and have) fall into the pit of not traveling if I don't have something booked. The booking windows personally help me make sure I'm taking the time to plan something.

3. The overall price of the product is tied to the price of the rooms and interest in the product. The prices are "historically" high because the room prices and demand for DVC are historically high, and for the same reason resale prices are softening a little now as cash stay interest in the parks is softening (and it would appear, as a few longer time dvc owners are souring a bit on the product and getting out while the prices haven't gone through the floor) . You seem to be going about this right by running numbers as you have, but i just mean to say, you're never going to go back and buy in at prices that existed in a different financial reality for the product.

4. The ability to stay in 1/2br rooms truly changes the way we travel, and that's the big perk to us of DVC perhaps above all others. I simply would never pay cash for that type of room, maybe that's a mental block, but especially with a small kid, the larger villas were a big plus, and funny enough, one we thought we wouldn't care about (we laughed off a direct guide when he talked about this to us). The ability to stock up a fridge, do laundry, sleep in separate rooms, etc, just took so much stress out of our trips. We were the prototypical "we need more points" after our first 1br stay.

I probably have other thoughts that will come to me, but here's a starter. Others will chime in obv.
 
My question is: why do you own DVC? Do you see it being financially savvy? Is it emotional (assurance, belonging to a group)?
For us, it was a matter of practicality because we wanted to visit every year.

DVC is very, very different now from when we bought, but I can tell you that we bought primarily to have more space when we visited! Our kids were 13 and 9, boy and girl, and that last trip in a Poly hotel room with four of us sharing one bathroom and having to eat 3 meals a day in a restaurant (that was long before refrigerators were standard in hotel rooms, so we couldn’t even have milk and cereal) was not fun.

We bought points for a 2BR, not a studio, and were very happy we did. It meant DH could cook breakfast while the kids and I got dressed. It meant we could pack fewer clothes, because it was easy to do laundry in our villa. It meant the night owls could watch TV at night and the early risers could drink coffee without keeping anyone else awake.

To us, having DVC meant our accommodations were paid for, so we just had to cover transportation, food and souvenirs. We’ve now been owners for 25 years and have had multiple wonderful trips with family, friends, and just the two of us, not to mention gifting DD and DSiL their honeymoon here too.

So, keep in mind that your kids will grow and your family’s needs will change. Maybe buy points for a studio now, then gradually add on enough for a 1BR and eventually a 2BR when you and your spouse want and need some privacy!
 
I have been considering DVC for some time and was dangerously close to making an offer on a resale contract last night (after multiple beers). However, I didn’t want to make a big financial commitment without being totally certain (and sober).

I consider myself a casual Disney fan; 38 years old with a wife and two kids (ages 3 and 1). I see a lot of Disney trips in my future, but probably just every-other-year or even every 3rd year. Even then DVC seems like it makes sense…

… until I ran the numbers on the spreadsheet. Assuming 3% inflation and room rates are always $500/nt (plus inflation) it just about breaks even after maintenance is factored in. It also assumes zero resale value which we know won’t be true (about 10 years would be left on the AKV/SSR contracts after my youngest are out of college).

This still feels like I would come out slightly ahead, staying in villas instead of studios, and give me the “peace of mind” knowing hotel prices are locked in for most of my adult life.

However, part of me is wondering if locking in now is during a historically expensive time.

My question is: why do you own DVC? Do you see it being financially savvy? Is it emotional (assurance, belonging to a group)?
We bought DVC to lock in rooms at the cost of the points we've purchased. This commitment to WDW was made because we had young kids at the time and loved vacations at Disney. Our kids literally grew up at WDW and now that they are adults, with their own kids, still come and enjoy the experience and one has bought DVC for themselves.

Absent owning DVC, those vacations would never have happened for us. We definitely did other family vacations and created great memories with those as well. Had we not purchased DVC when we did, we would never come as often as we have nor stayed in these types of accommodations. It just wouldn't happen. For us.
 


For us, it was a matter of practicality because we wanted to visit every year.

DVC is very, very different now from when we bought, but I can tell you that we bought primarily to have more space when we visited! Our kids were 13 and 9, boy and girl, and that last trip in a Poly hotel room with four of us sharing one bathroom and having to eat 3 meals a day in a restaurant (that was long before refrigerators were standard in hotel rooms, so we couldn’t even have milk and cereal) was not fun.

We bought points for a 2BR, not a studio, and were very happy we did. It meant DH could cook breakfast while the kids and I got dressed. It meant we could pack fewer clothes, because it was easy to do laundry in our villa. It meant the night owls could watch TV at night and the early risers could drink coffee without keeping anyone else awake.

To us, having DVC meant our accommodations were paid for, so we just had to cover transportation, food and souvenirs. We’ve now been owners for 25 years and have had multiple wonderful trips with family, friends, and just the two of us, not to mention gifting DD and DSiL their honeymoon here too.

So, keep in mind that your kids will grow and your family’s needs will change. Maybe buy points for a studio now, then gradually add on enough for a 1BR and eventually a 2BR when you and your spouse want and need some privacy!
This.
 
My parents used to own a non-Disney timeshare in Florida and based on their experience would NEVER recommend it to anyone else. Most of the promises made by the sales people were misleading or inaccurate. Fees went up every year and fewer amenities were offered. They could basically pay to go on vacation anywhere else for what they were paying to have their timeshare regardless of whether they used it or not. Once they got up in their years and no longer able to travel, they got stuck paying various annual fees for a worthless asset. There is no active resale market and no one had any interst in buying their timeshare, so they were stuck with something that had ZERO value. I got involved and finally helped them dispose of it.

While Disney seems far more reputable regarding timeshares, there is no guarantee Disney won't decide to get rid of their timeshare business in the future and who knows how the new owners would handle things? Part of why they now call them something else (i.e. fractional ownership, vacation clubs, etc.) is the generally sleazy reputation associated with the timeshare business.

One concern is also the issue of how often you go to Disney and how that might change over the years. Kids in h.s. may be more active in sports which takes up more of your vacation time and perhaps doesn't make going to Disney as often practical. There is really no way to anticipate that going forward.

Personally, if you have the cash sitting around to pay for a timeshare, I would just invest that money and use the income to help pay for future vacations with no strings attached. Also not being tied to a single specific vacation location lets you experience other places going forward.
 
I am the same age as you. My my son is 6 and we have taken him to Disney 2x. In 2021 we stayed in cash rooms at WL and fell in love.

I do not have the funds for a 150 pt investment in a direct DVC contract and it does not make sense to purchase with financing with the hike in rates. The savings would just be minimal.

This has us looking into resale as the resale numbers have really gotten more affordable over the past 1-2 months and you save A LOT vs direct- but don't get benefits and can't stay at the riveria (or can only stay at Riv of you but there) and the status of new construction is up in the air.

I put in an offer on a small OKW contract- because 1. I have the funds now to pay for it. 2. You can use a small contract annually easily at OKW d/t the low point cost of the studios. 3. When compared to rack rates we break even in slightly over 2 Disney trips.


OKW wasn't my first choice but it just makes a lot of sense and I am pretty excited. If it passes ROFR we are still thinking of adding at BRV, AKV, or BWV. The October UY is pretty tough though.

I am okay with resale for an older resort because the initial buy in is affordable now, you still get big overall savings, even if we don't want to use the contract anymore and the resale value tanks the rental business is still strong, there is less time for uncertainty of the future, we can still use points for really nice off-property destinations like AUL, Hilton Head, VB, and as of now there are good options for either point swapping or renting points and putting them towards trips outside of WDW.

If 2042/2057 rolls around and I need more I will reweigh my options then.
 
I did the spreadsheet thing myself. We go every year. We figured, using time value of money, that we saved money over slightly discounted (10-20%) off rack rate Disney deluxe hotel prices after trip #5. But, resale when we bought BLT was about half of what it is now, and room rates were $400 a night, so the spread was a lot wider. We also assumed an ownership window of 15-18 years, which would leave the points with 20+ years left when we sold.

As to a current spreadsheet, absolutely assume a straight increase in prices for both rooms and DVC dues, using the same figure for the time value of money, current resale pricing, etc... But, you might want to do it over a horizon of 12-14 years instead of 22 years. The widely used figure for average ownership is 10-12 years. When your children hit high school, you'll likely find it increasingly difficult to schedule family trips around the children's events. And, you'll need to ballpark a price the points will be worth at the end of your ownership. Even with 10 years left, they'll still have value because, by that point, rack rate will be HUGE and those points still represent lodging at a discount.
Average ownership is not 10-12 years. It's more likely 20 or more. Half of OKW is already owned by the original purchasers, 30 years later
 
We bought a 150 resale contract at BLT in summer 2018. Negotiated and got a GREAT deal. Except for 2020 we have been able to go twice a year on average....be it WDW or HH. When I return from a trip I have fun adding up the (Disney) hotel costs for a comparable stay using cash instead of points. We always seem to have saved money (especially since BLT yearly dues are among the lowest rates).
We're grandfathered in regarding using points (locations) because of when we bought.
Honestly, considering the amount of time we spend enjoying the villas for various occasions, it's the best investment I've ever made! (I was Lead on the purchase so I claim ownership of the idea 😉) Yes, it's emotional, but it's also financial and forces us to plan ahead. We then enjoy the anticipation! We'll keep our contract and pass it on to a son.
So my advice is to make a good financial decision for your family at the point where you are, and add on or sell later as you need.
 
My family bought 150 points a couple of years ago and so far, it’s been worth it for us. We go to Disneyland once a year and this year, we have enough points to go to WDW and Disneyland. I was able to snag a studio at the Boardwalk with our points at the 7 mo window and our home resort is VGC. For my last trip in June, I was able to book a 2 bedroom at VGC and bring my mom and my niece and nephew along and we had such a great time. This is something I would not have been able to do if I wasn’t a DVC member.
 
We went resale in 2019 and feel we have got lots of value out of our contract. We go annually and were previously renting points to stay at BCV. Every year the amount we were paying to rent was going up by quite a bit. I also wanted to be in charge of our own reservations. So we finally bought our own contract and couldn’t be happier. We have stayed at AKV, BCV, Vero Beach, Saratoga and Poly thanks to our DVC membership. We would never ever pay WDW cash rates to stay deluxe, so for us this is a way to stay at beautiful resorts for a more reasonable price.

When we ran the numbers for us, it was going to be about 8 trips before we recouped the cost of what we put in. We got a Poly contract which had a nice long expiration date so we will hopefully get lots of enjoyment past those 8 years with grandkids in the future.

Another plus for us was that the years we didn’t go, we could rent the points and not lose money. We’ve only missed one trip (2021, thanks Covid) but renting out those points paid for almost the entirety of 2022’s trip. I wouldn’t buy with the intent to rent, but having it as a backup option is a consideration.
Do you recall what the cost of renting was to Disney's rack rate?

Were you saving over 20%?

I am asking because I booked a reservation and I was using that cost to compare to the cost of purchasing but that would not be accurate if I could rent for less.
 
I agree with mostly everything said above. For us, the biggest plus that we didn't consider when buying was the ability to bring people who don't get to experience Disney as often as us along for the ride. The 2/3 bedroom villas make this possible. It's been a huge benefit allowing us to make some bonds with other families and even drag along my inlaws (we do 2 BR lockoffs then). You just don't get the same experience when paying cash for 2 adjoining rooms. Also, even though DVC isn't a cheap way to go, we actually have saved money over the 7 years we've owned DVC and we've stayed in much nicer/larger rooms than we would have otherwise.
 
DVC is a complicated product with a lot of rules. I wouldn't buy at all for every three years, and I'm on the fence for every two. I go three or four times a year, I can move points around no big deal. For big, rare trips, it's easy to orphan points or things to go wrong. Renting points is often mathematically better, and doesn't require commitment.

Assuming 3% inflation and room rates are always $500/nt (plus inflation) it just about breaks even after maintenance is factored in.
Terrible assumptions. AoA is 250-300 over the summer, Swan/Dolphin is about the same. And Swan is a better property with better location than the vast majority of DVC. Even over the 4th of July, its <300.

If you're going every 2-3 years, just book Swan or rent points. Don't spend five figures on this. Heck book two refundable Swan trips year, and just take the ones you want. You're way ahead of DVC on flexibility and cost.

I found this chart helpful:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-fall-2022/

You can see that especially for more expensive points, renting is a much better choice.
 
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probably just every-other-year or even every 3rd year.
I do not think DVC makes sense for an every-third-year trip. It might make sense for an every-other-year trip, but it's easier to make the case if you buy resale.

Assuming 3% inflation and room rates are always $500/nt (plus inflation) it just about breaks even after maintenance is factored in.
I think that's probably close to accurate for an ownership you use every-other-year, bought direct from Disney--and that's pretty much what MouseSavers comes up with too. I happen to like their analysis, and they have a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to play out different scenarios. Be forewarned: it is easy to generate a set of numbers to get you the answer you want!

There are a couple of other ways to make it work. Buying resale is one; the lower cost basis puts more scenarios in the black, and does so earlier. Going more often would also help--say, two out of every three years. It is also possible that it's a way to get larger units without fighting the urge to move to something cheaper, but smaller, less well-appointed, and less comfortable.

But the truth is none of that matters all that much. I do not think timeshare has ever saved anyone money, ever, compared to what they would have spent on vacation just using cash to book as you go.

That seems like it can't be correct, and in a sense it isn't: timeshare will save you money on your lodging, and if you took exactly the same vacations and paid cash, you would have spent more on those vacations. But, you probably would not have taken the same vacations. When you are paying cash, there are always other things you could do with it. Worse, for most of us, vacations are a thing we fit in around the rest of our lives--and life can get very busy. When those kids are a bit older, and you start getting into band, sports, camps, etc. etc. etc. it gets very hard to find the time.

Timeshare changes the way most people think about vacation. It doesn't make sense to use timeshare assets for much of anything other than vacation, and the use-it-or-lose-it nature of those assets tends to move vacations higher up the to-do list. And, to me, that's the real value of a timeshare: it encourages you to prioritize vacations.

I've owned timeshares for close to 15 years at this point, and am now up to five weeks (which, frankly, is probably at least one week too many). There is no way in the world I'd be taking as many vacations as I take now if I had to justify paying cash for each of them individually. But, the money I am spending is discretionary cash I can afford, and looking back on it, it's hard to imagine any better use for it.

So, yes, you might save money buying DVC. But, maybe that's not the reason to buy DVC.
 
I do not think DVC makes sense for an every-third-year trip. It might make sense for an every-other-year trip, but it's easier to make the case if you buy resale.


I think that's probably close to accurate for an ownership you use every-other-year, bought direct from Disney--and that's pretty much what MouseSavers comes up with too. I happen to like their analysis, and they have a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to play out different scenarios. Be forewarned: it is easy to generate a set of numbers to get you the answer you want!

There are a couple of other ways to make it work. Buying resale is one; the lower cost basis puts more scenarios in the black, and does so earlier. Going more often would also help--say, two out of every three years. It is also possible that it's a way to get larger units without fighting the urge to move to something cheaper, but smaller, less well-appointed, and less comfortable.

But the truth is none of that matters all that much. I do not think timeshare has ever saved anyone money, ever, compared to what they would have spent on vacation just using cash to book as you go.

That seems like it can't be correct, and in a sense it isn't: timeshare will save you money on your lodging, and if you took exactly the same vacations and paid cash, you would have spent more on those vacations. But, you probably would not have taken the same vacations. When you are paying cash, there are always other things you could do with it. Worse, for most of us, vacations are a thing we fit in around the rest of our lives--and life can get very busy. When those kids are a bit older, and you start getting into band, sports, camps, etc. etc. etc. it gets very hard to find the time.

Timeshare changes the way most people think about vacation. It doesn't make sense to use timeshare assets for much of anything other than vacation, and the use-it-or-lose-it nature of those assets tends to move vacations higher up the to-do list. And, to me, that's the real value of a timeshare: it encourages you to prioritize vacations.

I've owned timeshares for close to 15 years at this point, and am now up to five weeks (which, frankly, is probably at least one week too many). There is no way in the world I'd be taking as many vacations as I take now if I had to justify paying cash for each of them individually. But, the money I am spending is discretionary cash I can afford, and looking back on it, it's hard to imagine any better use for it.

So, yes, you might save money buying DVC. But, maybe that's not the reason to buy DVC.
I have a question about using DVC points to use for other timeshare vacations. My understanding is that it is not the best use of points but in my situation a big reason I am buying is to ultimately pass it to my daughter for her use. Once it is hers with the obligation to only pay maintenance fees (with money left to her) getting the most efficient use would be great but is there enough value in using points in the timeshare market to see that as a decent benefit?

Would the value be worth at least the maintenance fee?
 
DVC is a complicated product with a lot of rules. I wouldn't buy at all for every three years, and I'm on the fence for every two. I go three or four times a year, I can move points around no big deal. For big, rare trips, it's easy to orphan points or things to go wrong. Renting points is often mathematically better, and doesn't require commitment.


Terrible assumptions. AoA is 250-300 over the summer, Swan/Dolphin is about the same. And Swan is a better property with better location than the vast majority of DVC. Even over the 4th of July, its <300.

If you're going every 2-3 years, just book Swan or rent points. Don't spend five figures on this. Heck book two refundable Swan trips year, and just take the ones you want. You're way ahead of DVC on flexibility and cost.

I found this chart helpful:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-fall-2022/

You can see that especially for more expensive points, renting is a much better choice.
Is the Swan/Dolphin room price significantly higher for the equivalent of a 1 or 2 bedroom?

Do they even have the equivalent room style?
 
Is the Swan/Dolphin room price significantly higher for the equivalent of a 1 or 2 bedroom?

Do they even have the equivalent room style?
OP's comparison was a $500/room, which sounds like a normal hotel room to me, and OP actually says "studios." Obviously, the comparison would be different for bigger rooms.
 

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