Potential buyer thinking out loud

[PolyRob]

Speaking of bad math lol...tell me if I'm even in the ballpark.

I just finished booking a full trip for next summer using my bounce back offer, roughly 35% off current rack rates. I have 4 nights at a BC water view and 5 nights at Poly resort view spanning the 4th of July holiday. This is our "usual" time and it would also be an extremely ideal trip as I love both these resorts. I'm going to "do the math" of getting the same combo with a resale AKV contract.

I'm going to assume:
- I get a 170 point AKV for $95pp to use as SAP.
- I could get cheaper for SAP but I'm saying AKV bc I'd be happy if that was all I could book as a last resort.
- Rack rates and Annual dues go up in lock step making that part of the math a wash.
- That BC and Poly would both be available at 7 months in some contiguous combination (yes I know this is probably not a possibility).
- This is a lot to assume but again for the sake of "the math".

I'm rounding numbers up or down a few dollars to simplify.

In cash next year's trip with bounce back is costing me $4500. That's 9 nights total 4 at BV then 5 at Poly.

A 170 point contract would be needed to book the same. A 170 point contract at AKV for $95 pp plus closing would be approximately $17,000.

Annual dues would be roughly $1500.

I subtract the annual dues from the cash cost of my trip leaving me with $3000 out of pocket.

17000/3000 = 5.6...

Therefore purchasing that DVC contract would have me at break even on my 6th trip.

Assuming all the variables don't...you know...vary...does that make sense?

And is there technically one further step to take it by saying I can reasonably and safely get 5% interest on that 17000 which when compounded over 6 years nets $5780 profit which would mean I would have to go on my 9th trip before I say to myself that DVC contract would've been worth it.

I'm playing my own devils advocate because we've established this isn't about straight math but more of a luxury purchase that brings happiness. BUT having said that...does the math I laid out at least SORTA make sense the way I'm presenting it?

Are you factoring a BCV studio in the 7-month period during summer? I don't think that is feasible. Maybe a preferred BWV studio at a higher point value. If you need to go to a 1-bedroom at any Crescent Lake resort to accomplish the split you're already looking to borrow.

If you're happy with AKV and split your reservation so you can try to easily swap 2 separate reservations at 7-months and just get PVB for 1 you may be fine. However, you lose some value because AKL is cheaper than Crescent Lake resorts factored into your calculation.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

And is there technically one further step to take it by saying I can reasonably and safely get 5% interest on that 17000 which when compounded over 6 years nets $5780 profit which would mean I would have to go on my 9th trip before I say to myself that DVC contract would've been worth it.

This is the correct way to do this or at least close enough. And yes it checks out to me.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I'm sure someone will disagree with me.

Of course they will...

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

The time value of money thing (which I think gets over-played) only works straight forward if you wouldn't have spent any of that money under any circumstance, i.e. no vacation at all. I'm sure someone will disagree with me.

that’s because that’s not how time value of money should be calculated.

There’s a few ways you can look at it, I think the way @TheDailyMoo did it above will get you close enough, but is slightly pessimistic vs the real real. But slightly pessimistic is good! Because you’re making assumptions and assumptions can be wrong. So better to err negatively than positively.

Ideally you’d remove the difference between the cost of the vacation and the annual dues from the interest calculation each year when doing your TVM calculation.

 

[lilsonicfan]

I'll admit, I bought into DVC having *never* stayed onsite at WDW, not even in values. But after renting points to stay for a few nights at Aulani, I was game. Resale SSR made solid financial sense for me, but what I mean by that is not so much that it makes sense vs paying cash for rooms or whatever, but just that a) I wanted it and b) I could afford it without sacrificing elsewhere. No math here!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I think you have to subtract the cost of the cash stay each year from the 17000 investment. Does that make sense?

Yes after subtracting the Annual Dues from the cash stay as well. That's where I cam up with my 3000 total cash per trip number and subtracted that from the 17000 yielding me 6 stays before break even...not counting any interest or gain on the initial 17k outlay.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Are you factoring a BCV studio in the 7-month period during summer? I don't think that is feasible. Maybe a preferred BWV studio at a higher point value. If you need to go to a 1-bedroom at any Crescent Lake resort to accomplish the split you're already looking to borrow.

If you're happy with AKV and split your reservation so you can try to easily swap 2 separate reservations at 7-months and just get PVB for 1 you may be fine. However, you lose some value because AKL is cheaper than Crescent Lake resorts factored into your calculation.

In my scenario where I booked a split stay in real life with BC as the first leg...yes. I'm pretty aware that BC at 7 months is almost impossible and if not impossible then not dependable like me making a cash reservation. I never considered that AKV would be a lesser value than the two I mentioned and I did not take that into my calculations. Now what if I said I'd want to do all 9 nights at Poly which seems to be a distinct possibility at 7 months using the hypothetical AKV points. That would make my math work again. If only I knew I could get at least a week at Poly using SAPs in July I think I would make the leap now.

 

[PolyRob]

In my scenario where I booked a split stay in real life with BC as the first leg...yes. I'm pretty aware that BC at 7 months is almost impossible and if not impossible then not dependable like me making a cash reservation. I never considered that AKV would be a lesser value than the two I mentioned and I did not take that into my calculations. Now what if I said I'd want to do all 9 nights at Poly which seems to be a distinct possibility at 7 months using the hypothetical AKV points. That would make my math work again. If only I knew I could get at least a week at Poly using SAPs in July I think I would make the leap now.

I think you have a very high chance of securing a PVB studio outside of "fall frenzy," peak spring break/Easter season, and 4th of July at the 7-month window. Maybe even check the points needed for a lake view PVB to be safe. Poly is even more than Crescent Lake so the math might break even a little faster.

 

[Chili327]

I'll admit, I bought into DVC having *never* stayed onsite at WDW, not even in values. But after renting points to stay for a few nights at Aulani, I was game. Resale SSR made solid financial sense for me, but what I mean by that is not so much that it makes sense vs paying cash for rooms or whatever, but just that a) I wanted it and b) I could afford it without sacrificing elsewhere. No math here!

Everyone has their own “math”. Thats just your math & it adds up perfectly for you.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Yes after subtracting the Annual Dues from the cash stay as well. That's where I cam up with my 3000 total cash per trip number and subtracted that from the 17000 yielding me 6 stays before break even...not counting any interest or gain on the initial 17k outlay.

And, you're comparing it to almost to lowest cash prices possible too (I think even CM discounts hover around 40% off, that often is at a limited number of resorts).

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Now I am confused if you’re talking yourself into DVC or out of DVC, LOL.

If buying in is going to stress you out, don’t do it. It’s not going anywhere.

if you know you’re going to want to do Disney at least once a year or two and that your pattern is pretty set, I say buy what you want, where you want.

My personal view is SAP are gravy points on top of your first love resort for bigger family trips/grand villas, or else lots of (more) spontaneous long weekends or last-minute trips if your work/life/budget allows. For this season of life for our family, we’re locked into the kids’ school schedule for another decade. Airfare x 4 is expensive, so we’re pivoting away from 2x a year to 1x a year, but longer — and bigger accommodations to bring family along.

DVC forces us to take vacation, and I love the long-term planning. My happiest memories of using DVC are not of any rides or foods, but family time at the resort, honestly. The first time we brought my sister, BIL, and niece in 2021 for a Riviera 2-bedroom, the three kids pigpiled in the Murphy, adults took the club chairs and put their feet up on the edge, made popcorn in our Jammie’s after showering and watched “Jungle Cruise” — after doing the ride that day!

It’s fun doing DVC and having the room to be social. We travel with two other DVC families and swapped babysitting in the rooms to do adult dinner at Topolinos, visited their pool at Kidani and kids did pool arts and crafts, then they visited us at OKW pool and hung out with us on the lanai afterwards.

It’s not just about the room price and crashing. It’s having a door you can shut so parents can have sex and sleep in. The kids can watch their iPads quietly in the other room. You don’t have to tiptoe so you don’t wake everyone up to go pee at 3 a.m. after tripping on crap in the room because it’s put away. You can grab a drink or coffee early/late an enjoy your balcony in peace. I can throw a load of laundry in every night and just pack carryons each trip. These are the things that make DVC worth it to us.

 

[InabinettheCabinet]

Now I am confused if you’re talking yourself into DVC or out of DVC, LOL.

If buying in is going to stress you out, don’t do it. It’s not going anywhere.

if you know you’re going to want to do Disney at least once a year or two and that your pattern is pretty set, I say buy what you want, where you want.

My personal view is SAP are gravy points on top of your first love resort for bigger family trips/grand villas, or else lots of (more) spontaneous long weekends or last-minute trips if your work/life/budget allows. For this season of life for our family, we’re locked into the kids’ school schedule for another decade. Airfare x 4 is expensive, so we’re pivoting away from 2x a year to 1x a year, but longer — and bigger accommodations to bring family along.

DVC forces us to take vacation, and I love the long-term planning. My happiest memories of using DVC are not of any rides or foods, but family time at the resort, honestly. The first time we brought my sister, BIL, and niece in 2021 for a Riviera 2-bedroom, the three kids pigpiled in the Murphy, adults took the club chairs and put their feet up on the edge, made popcorn in our Jammie’s after showering and watched “Jungle Cruise” — after doing the ride that day!

It’s fun doing DVC and having the room to be social. We travel with two other DVC families and swapped babysitting in the rooms to do adult dinner at Topolinos, visited their pool at Kidani and kids did pool arts and crafts, then they visited us at OKW pool and hung out with us on the lanai afterwards.

It’s not just about the room price and crashing. It’s having a door you can shut so parents can have sex and sleep in. The kids can watch their iPads quietly in the other room. You don’t have to tiptoe so you don’t wake everyone up to go pee at 3 a.m. after tripping on crap in the room because it’s put away. You can grab a drink or coffee early/late an enjoy your balcony in peace. I can throw a load of laundry in every night and just pack carryons each trip. These are the things that make DVC worth it to us.

LOL I think I have talked myself out of it for now. Between my own calculations and reading these threads haha. I think I overthought every possible scenario and when I do that, I get to the point where I say "No I'm not buying anything"
We will re-evaluate come Poly 2 haha.

 

[momtwoboys]

how about the OP? have you decided anything for or against?

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Now I am confused if you’re talking yourself into DVC or out of DVC, LOL.

If buying in is going to stress you out, don’t do it. It’s not going anywhere.

if you know you’re going to want to do Disney at least once a year or two and that your pattern is pretty set, I say buy what you want, where you want.

My personal view is SAP are gravy points on top of your first love resort for bigger family trips/grand villas, or else lots of (more) spontaneous long weekends or last-minute trips if your work/life/budget allows. For this season of life for our family, we’re locked into the kids’ school schedule for another decade. Airfare x 4 is expensive, so we’re pivoting away from 2x a year to 1x a year, but longer — and bigger accommodations to bring family along.

DVC forces us to take vacation, and I love the long-term planning. My happiest memories of using DVC are not of any rides or foods, but family time at the resort, honestly. The first time we brought my sister, BIL, and niece in 2021 for a Riviera 2-bedroom, the three kids pigpiled in the Murphy, adults took the club chairs and put their feet up on the edge, made popcorn in our Jammie’s after showering and watched “Jungle Cruise” — after doing the ride that day!

It’s fun doing DVC and having the room to be social. We travel with two other DVC families and swapped babysitting in the rooms to do adult dinner at Topolinos, visited their pool at Kidani and kids did pool arts and crafts, then they visited us at OKW pool and hung out with us on the lanai afterwards.

It’s not just about the room price and crashing. It’s having a door you can shut so parents can have sex and sleep in. The kids can watch their iPads quietly in the other room. You don’t have to tiptoe so you don’t wake everyone up to go pee at 3 a.m. after tripping on crap in the room because it’s put away. You can grab a drink or coffee early/late an enjoy your balcony in peace. I can throw a load of laundry in every night and just pack carryons each trip. These are the things that make DVC worth it to us.

LOL I think I have talked myself out of it for now. Between my own calculations and reading these threads haha. I think I overthought every possible scenario and when I do that, I get to the point where I say "No I'm not buying anything"
We will re-evaluate come Poly 2 haha.

how about the OP? have you decided anything for or against?

Haha I think I'm at the point of mental exhaustion thinking about it! Which means I may need to back away for a bit and come back with a fresh mind. I will still keep making lowball offers because I'm not against it nor do I feel like spending a ton just to have the resort I want. I think a cheap enough SAP contract will be something not only that I could live with for now but would also be a good foray into the world of DVC. Then I'll probably also wait for Poly 2 and see how that changes the dynamic.

TwinsMom I totally get the family vacay vibe you speak of and I love it. It's just the three of us for now so that's not as important but I can see planning larger group trips later that would play into the whole DVC advantage. I thank you and everyone for allowing me to work this out on this thread! It was super beneficial!

 

[tidefan]

That's how I felt when I looked at joining. My family always booked deluxe resorts, but why go from 2 real beds in a cash room to only getting them in a 2-bedroom? I could almost always get a discount on GF cash rooms since they are so overpriced so I had to calculate against a 30% discount. I know direct benefits aren't guaranteed, but the AP savings definitely came into play because it can cover the entire dues for a contract depending on family size. Now that the resort studios have been added at GF it was an easy decision for me. Sure you give up space like a kitchen and washer and dryer, but I don't always need that. I like that it's identical to the GF cash rooms for a lot less money. GF also has towels in the hallway and trash so it's easy to tidy up quickly. Not to mention all the old sofa beds have been getting swapped to murphy beds in the original villa building (and across DVC). Makes me very happy I have lots of options there.

So, just don't overthink it. The truth is that what works for every person is going to be very different depending upon each person's specific situation and tastes. You just have to go with yours.

For instance, I couldn't disagree more with @PolyRob above. We were original VGF1 owners and very much love the original Deluxe Studios. We have no need for a second dedicated queen bed in the room. I would much rather have the kitchenette and split bath setup, which is what we bought. Now, it is difficult to get DLX studios in the home resort period (I was looking around next May and DLX studios are already gone, but the hotel rooms are plentiful). I am also not crazy happy about how that affected resale, however, I am more disappointed in DVC by really losing flexibility in getting the units I want at my home resort. IMHO, VGF2 should have been a separate resort. Also, we had one stay at RIV and we were pretty much done. Not sure what it was, and I am not opposed to staying there again, but I don't see paying a premium in points for it...

All that being said... that is just how we feel and is specific to just our situation.

Everyone likes different things. Just because I'm not thrilled with the VGF2 hotel rooms or RIV doesn't mean that others aren't. So @PolyRob is just as valid in his opinions as I am in mine. We are both right, just have very different things that we are looking for. Also, we are drivable to Orlando, so the fact that we always have a car makes for a very different experience than those who fly in. We all have our own set of circumstances that make what we all like/prefer unique to us. So, you are right when you said that everyone has good points. We all tend to do what works best for us. I think that you will find the same thing. Best of luck to you in your hunt for points and I am sure you will find what works best for you.

 

[Chili327]

Haha I think I'm at the point of mental exhaustion thinking about it! Which means I may need to back away for a bit and come back with a fresh mind. I will still keep making lowball offers because I'm not against it nor do I feel like spending a ton just to have the resort I want. I think a cheap enough SAP contract will be something not only that I could live with for now but would also be a good foray into the world of DVC. Then I'll probably also wait for Poly 2 and see how that changes the dynamic.

TwinsMom I totally get the family vacay vibe you speak of and I love it. It's just the three of us for now so that's not as important but I can see planning larger group trips later that would play into the whole DVC advantage. I thank you and everyone for allowing me to work this out on this thread! It was super beneficial!

If you want to get in cheap, BRV could be cheap enough & still have sort of a park area. I see 50pt for under $100 often.

 

[herewegooo]

Appreciate these forums! Longtime lurker and have been researching DVC for three years at this point. IKR! Each year my kids get older and I’m missing out, so we are about to jump and purchase 150 direct with Riviera. Question for yall: The person that I’m working with is saying that they are only selling Feb. use years. That means that if I do Magical Beginnings, they’d buy back my 2023 points, and not 2022. Is that something set in stone or could I potentially use 2022 points as a bargaining chip? thanks everyone!

 

[garegco]

Appreciate these forums! Longtime lurker and have been researching DVC for three years at this point. IKR! Each year my kids get older and I’m missing out, so we are about to jump and purchase 150 direct with Riviera. Question for yall: The person that I’m working with is saying that they are only selling Feb. use years. That means that if I do Magical Beginnings, they’d buy back my 2023 points, and not 2022. Is that something set in stone or could I potentially use 2022 points as a bargaining chip? thanks everyone!

You could ask for a September, October, or December use year which are currently in their 2022 UY so they would come with 2022 points. They may push back a bit on the use year request and require approval from a manager, but you can always say you won't buy unless you get that use year granted.

 

[RuntheMouse]

Appreciate these forums! Longtime lurker and have been researching DVC for three years at this point. IKR! Each year my kids get older and I’m missing out, so we are about to jump and purchase 150 direct with Riviera. Question for yall: The person that I’m working with is saying that they are only selling Feb. use years. That means that if I do Magical Beginnings, they’d buy back my 2023 points, and not 2022. Is that something set in stone or could I potentially use 2022 points as a bargaining chip? thanks everyone!

We just bought Riviera earlier this month with an August UY.

 

[Faith_Trust&PixieDust]

I have been trying to decide on Poly as well. I considered if I would financially be in a place to buy direct again next year. In May, my guide sent me pricing that was $250 per point direct for Poly. I can't imagine Poly 2 will be much more discounted when it goes on sale. Our family probably wouldn't be looking to add another 150 points to even qualify for incentives more than likely. So, we are going the resale route. We own 200 direct points that we purchased in May, so hoping if Poly 2 is a different association that we can just use those points to stay there.

Also, I haven't been in person but update videos from others staying at PVB show the construction as if it is close in proximity to the original Poly. I keep looking at it and thinking would you put a new association that close? Where is the allotted parking for the building? These are just random thoughts of mine lol.

Of course I say all this and I figure I'm missing something. Financially it doesn't make sense for Disney to keep it the same association. Which is unfortunate for me