Potential buyer thinking out loud

- Just to complicate things I got the bounceback offer for next year and I'm thinking if there are always discounted rack rates (big assumption but it does seem to be a solid trend) do I need to outlay a large sum of money now or is it better to play it by year and at the point I'd be breakeven it would be so far down the road I wouldn't care at that point if buying DVC would've saved me money.
Don't forget rack rates goes up every year, even it's discounted, they still go up. MF goes up to, but compared to rack rates increase, it's a lot more manageable.
It sounds like Poly is where your heart is! Like many others have said, if you won't be disappointed that you can't use Poly resale points for the new tower, you should go for a Poly resale contract now while the market is still in buyer's favor. Otherwise, you should wait for the new tower announcement.
 
Ok which one of you snagged the 160 AKV at 95pp on Fidelity before me! Just kidding! I'm still hemming and hawing but saw that listed and by the time I finally pushed myself to inquire it had obviously been snagged. But I'm definitely starting to get closer to making a move (resale anyway) if the price is right. I figure I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though the bus ride to everywhere stinks.

Now for a listing that started at 95 they must've been desperate to unload right? Why go straight to 95 pp when most AKV I was seeing are in the 110-115 range. Just thinking out loud.

Again appreciate all the help here!
 
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I would either get SSR or wait for Poly2. SSR and VGF/Poly resale are only equivalent purchases if you think the extra money is useless in the market., which I don't. I'd rather wait Poly2 and buy direct than spend 150 on Poly1 right now, vs 90s for SSR.

It isn't hard to book Poly/AKL, at least when I travel off-peak. If you are traveling at holidays, maybe a different discussion.

IMO, It isn't like resale SSR is a huge commitment either. If you buy SSR now, you can always buy into Poly2 and sell your SSR later.

It's also possible Poly2 tanks the value of Poly1 points, like it did for VGF1. If it launches at something like 175, like VGF2 did, there's no way 150 will hold for Poly1 and Poly2 will be looking pretty good at that pricing.
 
Ok which one of you snagged the 160 AKV at 95pp on Fidelity before me! Just kidding! I'm still hemming and hawing but saw that listed and by the time I finally pushed myself to inquire it had obviously been snagged. But I'm definitely starting to get closer to making a move (resale anyway) if the price is right. I figure I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though the bus ride to everywhere stinks.

Now for a listing that started at 95 they must've been desperate to unload right? Why go straight to 95 pp when most AKV I was seeing are in the 110-115 range. Just thinking out loud. I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though bus ride...

Again appreciate all the help here!
I bet they said to the broker “what should I price it at for a quick sale” and the broker spit this number back at them.

Estate sale, divorce, loss of job, lots of reasons to price it to sell.
 

Ok which one of you snagged the 160 AKV at 95pp on Fidelity before me! Just kidding! I'm still hemming and hawing but saw that listed and by the time I finally pushed myself to inquire it had obviously been snagged. But I'm definitely starting to get closer to making a move (resale anyway) if the price is right. I figure I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though the bus ride to everywhere stinks.

Now for a listing that started at 95 they must've been desperate to unload right? Why go straight to 95 pp when most AKV I was seeing are in the 110-115 range. Just thinking out loud. I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though bus ride...

Again appreciate all the help here!
We will never know why they priced it so low, but it's probably a mix bag of things. There is a 150pt OKW contract now listed for $83pp....too bad I don't need another contract...ugh!
 
Ok which one of you snagged the 160 AKV at 95pp on Fidelity before me! Just kidding! I'm still hemming and hawing but saw that listed and by the time I finally pushed myself to inquire it had obviously been snagged. But I'm definitely starting to get closer to making a move (resale anyway) if the price is right. I figure I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though the bus ride to everywhere stinks.

Now for a listing that started at 95 they must've been desperate to unload right? Why go straight to 95 pp when most AKV I was seeing are in the 110-115 range. Just thinking out loud. I could definitely deal with an AKV as SAP because my kid loves animals and if that's where we got stuck I'd be fine with it...even though bus ride...

Again appreciate all the help here!

This has been us almost every single time we have sold a contract...we wanted a quick sale and it was more important that trying higher to start!

Like last year when I put up SSR to buy VGF...it was getting snagged up in ROFR between $125 and $130....broker recommended $135 to start...I went with $125...got an offer for $120 that same day (or early the next one)...took it and off we went!
 
I've posed questions here before and follow this board closely, you've all been a big help in all the info you provide to make a solid choice of buying in or not. I'm at the poop or get off the pot moment and want to type out loud to see if I'm making the jump. I appreciate allowing me to use board space to work out my thoughts.

- Originally was thinking going the ol' SSR SAP route. Some of you showed me the math about how the VGF direct isn't that far off. Then I began to get into the idea of going direct. Just got back from 10 days split stay the Poly (cash) and BWV with rented points. In that time I was able to tour the GF rooms with a DVC guide and yes...they are gorgeous. The whole property is. I love the food options there. Buuuuutttt...me and the fam really had good vibes at the Poly! And they put me in a room overlooking the construction and I STILL loved every second about it. The newly renovated Moana rooms are really just a great look and feel. Love Capt. Cooks. Love the foliage. The immediate dole whip access. Everything.

- Went over to BWV. Hated it...not the resort, loved the resort. Ok hate is a strong word. Love the EP area resorts and stay at Swan a lot so know the area. But the BW room that we stayed in was so dark and dingy and I KNOW people love it and don't want those rooms renovated because there's an inherent charm to them that they grew up with. I get that. But for me to go from the Poly rooms that felt so refreshing to...well...what felt like a darker unthemed room leftover from 1998. When I say darker I mean poor lighting. And the AC didn't work great. The toilet kept running. The walls were paper thin and we heard a dad screaming at his kids at all hours. And the carpet...But I loved the rest of the resort. And I know the rooms will be renovated and that resale can be had cheap. And walking to EP and HS also can't be beat. But only 18 years left on that contract so is it really worth it. Also why so few Quick service options? I found myself going over to BC/YC or Dolphin for food.

- So now I've started taking into account the mantra of this DVC board...own where you want to stay. We liked the Poly. And looking back at last months ROFR it looks like $140 is possible. Also with Poly 2 possibly being part of those points it could add many more studio choices. If I can snag a contract at right around 140 or even a few bucks less I feel like that may be the way to go? I don't know. I can see myself at VGF too but just to be direct at the higher price point might not make financial sense.

- Just to complicate things I got the bounceback offer for next year and I'm thinking if there are always discounted rack rates (big assumption but it does seem to be a solid trend) do I need to outlay a large sum of money now or is it better to play it by year and at the point I'd be breakeven it would be so far down the road I wouldn't care at that point if buying DVC would've saved me money.

If you've read this far and in case you didn't notice I'm overly analytical and overthink many decisions! I understand DVC is an emotional purpose and not like buying Amazon stock in 1999. I also think that instead of pluncking down 27k now I can find a safe HYSA or safe divvy play that would more than subsidize my trip for next year and years to come. And what if I just want to cruise one year. Or go somewhere else. But also...I want to own points and get to use the dashboard and play around with dates. We love Disney and see ourselves going for the next 10 years at least. I'm sure others have had this same dilemma but I also envy those that jumped in headfirst and have never looked back!

PS Because of this board teaching me so much I was telling the DVC salesperson things that they barely seemed to know! Even if I don't end up purchasing I'll still keep up with all things DVC. It fascinates me.
Good lord.... I feel like you spilled out all of my thoughts. Like you read my mind haha.
 
I would either get SSR or wait for Poly2. SSR and VGF/Poly resale are only equivalent purchases if you think the extra money is useless in the market., which I don't. I'd rather wait Poly2 and buy direct than spend 150 on Poly1 right now, vs 90s for SSR.

It isn't hard to book Poly/AKL, at least when I travel off-peak. If you are traveling at holidays, maybe a different discussion.

IMO, It isn't like resale SSR is a huge commitment either. If you buy SSR now, you can always buy into Poly2 and sell your SSR later.

It's also possible Poly2 tanks the value of Poly1 points, like it did for VGF1. If it launches at something like 175, like VGF2 did, there's no way 150 will hold for Poly1 and Poly2 will be looking pretty good at that pricing.
So what you're saying is at the point I'm at why spend the 95 on AKV if I'm going straight SAP bc SSR would be a cheaper contract AND I can get AKV no problem? Just want to clarify.

And you think Poly 2 could have a blow us out of the water sale to begin with. And if that happens Poly 1 will crash why? What caused VGF1 to come down bc of VGF2? The supply went up? Or the direct incentives? This is all very fascinating btw.
 
So what you're saying is at the point I'm at why spend the 95 on AKV if I'm going straight SAP bc SSR would be a cheaper contract AND I can get AKV no problem? Just want to clarify.

And you think Poly 2 could have a blow us out of the water sale to begin with. And if that happens Poly 1 will crash why? What caused VGF1 to come down bc of VGF2? The supply went up? Or the direct incentives? This is all very fascinating btw.
VGF resale tanked when VGF2 went up for sale because it was the same association and the price was great for current and new owners. Before VGF2 was announced, VGF was $255 per point direct with DVC. Even a resale contact at $200 could have been tempting. DVC has increased the incentives this year and current owners can add VGF direct for $161.10 per point when purchasing 150 points. Something that sold for over $200 per point resale can't even sell at $160 now.

Why would you touch a $160 VGF listing resale? No benefits, locked out of future resorts, and dealing with resale vs having points loaded same day.

If PVB2 is the same association as PVB1, resale may follow the same fate. If it's a new association, PVB2 may still be more tempting direct since it will have more room options and new amenities built into the tower rather than being close to TTC. That's all PVB1 really has going for it right now over the tower. And no resale restrictions, but it's locked to the original 14 and could potentially not book PVB2.
 
VGF resale tanked when VGF2 went up for sale because it was the same association and the price was great for current and new owners. Before VGF2 was announced, VGF was $255 per point direct with DVC. Even a resale contact at $200 could have been tempting. DVC has increased the incentives this year and current owners can add VGF direct for $161.10 per point when purchasing 150 points. Something that sold for over $200 per point resale can't even sell at $160 now.

Why would you touch a $160 VGF listing resale? No benefits, locked out of future resorts, and dealing with resale vs having points loaded same day.

If PVB2 is the same association as PVB1, resale may follow the same fate. If it's a new association, PVB2 may still be more tempting direct since it will have more room options and new amenities built into the tower rather than being close to TTC. That's all PVB1 really has going for it right now over the tower. And no resale restrictions, but it's locked to the original 14 and could potentially not book PVB2.
Very interesting. Yes I figured the incentives is when VGF resale took the hit. And in your opinion Poly 1 will more than likely lose value either way when 2 comes on board. This I guess is all assuming ROFR is still asleep well into next year...which I can see happening considering the state of Disney and the economy both Macro and Micro. It's amazing what a complex instrument DVC is with so many wheels within wheels. There's no reason for a vacation rental/ownership to have this many moving parts but I guess here we are!
 
I've posed questions here before and follow this board closely, you've all been a big help in all the info you provide to make a solid choice of buying in or not. I'm at the poop or get off the pot moment and want to type out loud to see if I'm making the jump. I appreciate allowing me to use board space to work out my thoughts.

- Originally was thinking going the ol' SSR SAP route. Some of you showed me the math about how the VGF direct isn't that far off. Then I began to get into the idea of going direct. Just got back from 10 days split stay the Poly (cash) and BWV with rented points. In that time I was able to tour the GF rooms with a DVC guide and yes...they are gorgeous. The whole property is. I love the food options there. Buuuuutttt...me and the fam really had good vibes at the Poly! And they put me in a room overlooking the construction and I STILL loved every second about it. The newly renovated Moana rooms are really just a great look and feel. Love Capt. Cooks. Love the foliage. The immediate dole whip access. Everything.

- Went over to BWV. Hated it...not the resort, loved the resort. Ok hate is a strong word. Love the EP area resorts and stay at Swan a lot so know the area. But the BW room that we stayed in was so dark and dingy and I KNOW people love it and don't want those rooms renovated because there's an inherent charm to them that they grew up with. I get that. But for me to go from the Poly rooms that felt so refreshing to...well...what felt like a darker unthemed room leftover from 1998. When I say darker I mean poor lighting. And the AC didn't work great. The toilet kept running. The walls were paper thin and we heard a dad screaming at his kids at all hours. And the carpet...But I loved the rest of the resort. And I know the rooms will be renovated and that resale can be had cheap. And walking to EP and HS also can't be beat. But only 18 years left on that contract so is it really worth it. Also why so few Quick service options? I found myself going over to BC/YC or Dolphin for food.

- So now I've started taking into account the mantra of this DVC board...own where you want to stay. We liked the Poly. And looking back at last months ROFR it looks like $140 is possible. Also with Poly 2 possibly being part of those points it could add many more studio choices. If I can snag a contract at right around 140 or even a few bucks less I feel like that may be the way to go? I don't know. I can see myself at VGF too but just to be direct at the higher price point might not make financial sense.

- Just to complicate things I got the bounceback offer for next year and I'm thinking if there are always discounted rack rates (big assumption but it does seem to be a solid trend) do I need to outlay a large sum of money now or is it better to play it by year and at the point I'd be breakeven it would be so far down the road I wouldn't care at that point if buying DVC would've saved me money.

If you've read this far and in case you didn't notice I'm overly analytical and overthink many decisions! I understand DVC is an emotional purpose and not like buying Amazon stock in 1999. I also think that instead of pluncking down 27k now I can find a safe HYSA or safe divvy play that would more than subsidize my trip for next year and years to come. And what if I just want to cruise one year. Or go somewhere else. But also...I want to own points and get to use the dashboard and play around with dates. We love Disney and see ourselves going for the next 10 years at least. I'm sure others have had this same dilemma but I also envy those that jumped in headfirst and have never looked back!

PS Because of this board teaching me so much I was telling the DVC salesperson things that they barely seemed to know! Even if I don't end up purchasing I'll still keep up with all things DVC. It fascinates me.
I'm a rookie, and I get it's all about where you want to stay. However, there are other considerations. I think the one that is most commonly overlooked is that VGF not only costs more per point, but it also requires more points for each night. The family isn't going to give a squat...all they want is a pool and hit the parks. Hitting the parks requires a convenient location. Lastly, as you can now see, time left on the lease matters. As the Deed expiration nears, the less your points are worth. Saratoga is a pain to travel by bus but no so to get to Disney Springs. Riviera, although a gorgeous resort, with its limitations it really doesn't make sense and that is shown in the resale values...At opening direct points were $220 or more. You can now buy resale for $130. The usage restrictions are just that ABUSIVE when you have so many other parks to explore, especially at last minute.
 
Very interesting. Yes I figured the incentives is when VGF resale took the hit. And in your opinion Poly 1 will more than likely lose value either way when 2 comes on board. This I guess is all assuming ROFR is still asleep well into next year...which I can see happening considering the state of Disney and the economy both Macro and Micro. It's amazing what a complex instrument DVC is with so many wheels within wheels. There's no reason for a vacation rental/ownership to have this many moving parts but I guess here we are!
Riviera gave them a valid reason to restructure the guidelines of DVC. My guess is, as Deeds expire, they will all convert to this One Resort Program. Although it does restrict who can stay at the resort, it also extinguishes the flexibility and the fun of being able to stay elsewhere on short notice. I see the traditional DVC properties as a much better buy. Bay Lake, Saratoga, OKW Extended, even Animal Kingdom are much better...Less Points per night, much lower cost per point, and most importantly, the benefit of staying at any of the other traditional resorts. The time at the resort is limited, at best...you're out at the parks, golfing, Disney Springs or sightseeing in general.
 
So what you're saying is at the point I'm at why spend the 95 on AKV if I'm going straight SAP bc SSR would be a cheaper contract AND I can get AKV no problem? Just want to clarify.
Looking at the listings, AKL is closer to 110 vs 90s for SSR right now. You have to decide whether that much extra is worth it to you. It would be to me probably, because I would book 1BR club. This isn't an impossible room with AKL home points, and it's not something I can book with SSR points.

But if your goal is off peak savanna room or Poly, then you don't need home points, and spending more isn't smart. If I'm going to buy an expensive contract, I'm going to wait for Poly2 and do it direct.
 
I'm a rookie, and I get it's all about where you want to stay. However, there are other considerations. I think the one that is most commonly overlooked is that VGF not only costs more per point, but it also requires more points for each night. The family isn't going to give a squat...all they want is a pool and hit the parks. Hitting the parks requires a convenient location. Lastly, as you can now see, time left on the lease matters. As the Deed expiration nears, the less your points are worth. Saratoga is a pain to travel by bus but no so to get to Disney Springs. Riviera, although a gorgeous resort, with its limitations it really doesn't make sense and that is shown in the resale values...At opening direct points were $220 or more. You can now buy resale for $130. The usage restrictions are just that ABUSIVE when you have so many other parks to explore, especially at last minute.

RIV has never been $220…they started at $188 base price…I bought 175 points in October 2019 for $167/point….actually $162 but that due to my DDs CM credit so I am not counting that since it’s not available to all.

People have gotten it for even less than I did….so, those that bought at the beginning of sales would not be losing a lot at $130…and, in 2020 after pandemic, there were some pretty good prices as well..
 
So, Sandi
RIV has never been $220…they started at $188 base price…I bought 175 points in October 2019 for $167/point….actually $162 but that due to my DDs CM credit so I am not counting that since it’s not available to all.

People have gotten it for even less than I did….so, those that bought at the beginning of sales would not be losing a lot at $130…and, in 2020 after pandemic, there were some pretty good prices as well..
So Sandi, looking at your club ownership, it looks like you have all the bases covered. You get exclusive nights at Riviera, you can stay at another top tier in the Grand Floridian, and then you also have a lower tier at Saratoga. Are you able to book nights on shorter notice? Do you borrow Saratoga points to pad your Grand Floridian? It looks like you might have this puzzle figured out.
 
So, Sandi

So Sandi, looking at your club ownership, it looks like you have all the bases covered. You get exclusive nights at Riviera, you can stay at another top tier in the Grand Floridian, and then you also have a lower tier at Saratoga. Are you able to book nights on shorter notice? Do you borrow Saratoga points to pad your Grand Floridian? It looks like you might have this puzzle figured out.

I don’t book last minute. I book all trips at 11 months, even if I am not even sure we are going.

We do do shorter trips but more often. I do mostly split stays between RIV and VGF.

At 7 months, I use my SSR points to book any rooms at those places that are still available at the beginning or end of the trip, and then cancel the nights I booked with my home resort points!!! Which I then get to use again for home resort booking!

Prior to last year, I did have 500 SSR, and 300 at RIV, but sold 200 SSR to buy 300 at VGF to increase my ability to book there at 11 months!

It works out great!!
 
I don’t book last minute. I book all trips at 11 months, even if I am not even sure we are going.

We do do shorter trips but more often. I do mostly split stays between RIV and VGF.

At 7 months, I use my SSR points to book any rooms at those places that are still available at the beginning or end of the trip, and then cancel the nights I booked with my home resort points!!! Which I then get to use again for home resort booking!

Prior to last year, I did have 500 SSR, and 300 at RIV, but sold 200 SSR to buy 300 at VGF to increase my ability to book there at 11 months!

It works out great!!
Thanks for sharing! Pretty stealthy, I might add.
 
I don’t book last minute. I book all trips at 11 months, even if I am not even sure we are going.

We do do shorter trips but more often. I do mostly split stays between RIV and VGF.

At 7 months, I use my SSR points to book any rooms at those places that are still available at the beginning or end of the trip, and then cancel the nights I booked with my home resort points!!! Which I then get to use again for home resort booking!

Prior to last year, I did have 500 SSR, and 300 at RIV, but sold 200 SSR to buy 300 at VGF to increase my ability to book there at 11 months!

It works out great!!
Also, are you digging Riv over that of the Grand?
 
Also, are you digging Riv over that of the Grand?

For sure! RIV is top for me. I never thought it would. I never thought anything could replace by love for the CR area and BLT.

When RIV went for sale, I was like no way. Then I saw it and rest is history. If we decide not to split stay, it’s the one I am always at!

It is also why we would only buy direct from now on because you just never know what new resort might capture your heart and with direct points, we know we will be able to try them, if or when they are built.
 



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