Potential buyer thinking out loud

[DVCmeesh]

If you've read this far and in case you didn't notice I'm overly analytical and overthink many decisions!

Literally what I'm going through right now! Been lurking the internet and recently the boards (made my account TODAY lol). We absolutely LOVE BWV but with the lesser contract length.. idk if it would be savvy. We're local to DLR, so we're leaning more towards buying the final week of the current incentive... again going back and forth with math hahaha

Thank you for sharing your thought process! Makes me not feel so alone

 

[StevieB81]

We have decided we want 2 bathrooms always.

So, 1 bedroom either at BLT or Kidani

2 bedrooms anywhere else.

If we want to stay at BWV, I believe we most likely have to buy there even though we travel end of January or August

If we want Riviera and/or POLY2 Standard we would have to buy direct there. Preferred rooms would require more points than I am prepared to buy.

I believe we can get 2 bedrooms at AKV- J, BRV or CCR during our travel period.

SSR and OKW should also be available.

I've been able to get a 2 bdrm at BWV the 3 times I've tried. We'll be there in 4 days, and I got it at 4 1/2 months. Just saying it might not be as hard as you think.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Literally what I'm going through right now! Been lurking the internet and recently the boards (made my account TODAY lol). We absolutely LOVE BWV but with the lesser contract length.. idk if it would be savvy. We're local to DLR, so we're leaning more towards buying the final week of the current incentive... again going back and forth with math hahaha

Thank you for sharing your thought process! Makes me not feel so alone

The direct pricing of BWV is nuts but honestly I think the resale price is pretty easy to justify.

Yes there’s only 18 years left but you’ll most likely make it back in half that time, or even much much sooner if you book the right accommodations.

The points themselves are very valuable at BWV because the point chart is so generous for standard view rooms, which are generally inaccessible for non-BWV owners.

If a room is $700 a night and 10 points, you are getting $70 of value out of each point. At VGF a room might be $900 a night but at 25 points a night they’re only getting $36 of value - half of BWV’s.

Make sure you understand the tax situation at Disneyland Hotel before you buy there. I don’t think it’s a particularly good value myself!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Looking at the listings, AKL is closer to 110 vs 90s for SSR right now. You have to decide whether that much extra is worth it to you. It would be to me probably, because I would book 1BR club. This isn't an impossible room with AKL home points, and it's not something I can book with SSR points.

But if your goal is off peak savanna room or Poly, then you don't need home points, and spending more isn't smart. If I'm going to buy an expensive contract, I'm going to wait for Poly2 and do it direct.

So I had seen an AKV 160 pointer that came up (and snapped up right away) for $95 a point. I figure that's pretty much SSR pricing and if I can somehow get me one of those right at that price it would be very well worth it. It seems you would share that opinion?

I'm sure Poly 2 will be a dream but what's really the best direct price that will be had at? Even in the 170s or 180s if it had incentives might not make it worth it for someone like me who would be interested in getting more value out of ownership than just staying in one resort I loved. This is of course all fluid and extremely confusing.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Good lord.... I feel like you spilled out all of my thoughts. Like you read my mind haha.

Literally what I'm going through right now! Been lurking the internet and recently the boards (made my account TODAY lol). We absolutely LOVE BWV but with the lesser contract length.. idk if it would be savvy. We're local to DLR, so we're leaning more towards buying the final week of the current incentive... again going back and forth with math hahaha

Thank you for sharing your thought process! Makes me not feel so alone

The DVC owners here are super helpful but it's also nice to see others that are wrestling with the idea of ownership. I can kinda say at this point that having crunched numbers and thought things out rationally that DVC is not some sound financial decision. In fact it doesn't even seem to save you much money unless your vacation habits fall under certain parameters. However I'm changing my mindset to see this as just a luxury purchase that you would use to make you happy. It seems to closely mirror my car leasing habit. Me and my wife both lease our Jeeps every three years. Leasing isn't smart financially and especially leasing two slightly expensive SUVs (deluxe resorts) when I could be leasing much cheaper cars that would also get me from point A to point B (value/moderate resorts). But we want the new cars every three years and we don't splurge in many other ways so it's fine. That's what I'm really seeing DVC as. Do I want to buy in to DVC because it will make me happy because I love vacationing at Disney even though I know I could do it similarly and probably the same cost if not cheaper without DVC. Do I want to pay more for a Mercedes and drive in luxury or be prudent and drive a 1974 Ford Pinto and save my money.

 

[InabinettheCabinet]

The DVC owners here are super helpful but it's also nice to see others that are wrestling with the idea of ownership. I can kinda say at this point that having crunched numbers and thought things out rationally that DVC is not some sound financial decision. In fact it doesn't even seem to save you much money unless your vacation habits fall under certain parameters. However I'm changing my mindset to see this as just a luxury purchase that you would use to make you happy. It seems to closely mirror my car leasing habit. Me and my wife both lease our Jeeps every three years. Leasing isn't smart financially and especially leasing two slightly expensive SUVs (deluxe resorts) when I could be leasing much cheaper cars that would also get me from point A to point B (value/moderate resorts). But we want the new cars every three years and we don't splurge in many other ways so it's fine. That's what I'm really seeing DVC as. Do I want to buy in to DVC because it will make me happy because I love vacationing at Disney even though I know I could do it similarly and probably the same cost if not cheaper without DVC. Do I want to pay more for a Mercedes and drive in luxury or be prudent and drive a 1974 Ford Pinto and save my money.

You make great points!!! And it is relieving to know that I'm not the only one over thinking the whole thing.
I agree this community is a great resource for all things DVC.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

The DVC owners here are super helpful but it's also nice to see others that are wrestling with the idea of ownership. I can kinda say at this point that having crunched numbers and thought things out rationally that DVC is not some sound financial decision. In fact it doesn't even seem to save you much money unless your vacation habits fall under certain parameters. However I'm changing my mindset to see this as just a luxury purchase that you would use to make you happy. It seems to closely mirror my car leasing habit. Me and my wife both lease our Jeeps every three years. Leasing isn't smart financially and especially leasing two slightly expensive SUVs (deluxe resorts) when I could be leasing much cheaper cars that would also get me from point A to point B (value/moderate resorts). But we want the new cars every three years and we don't splurge in many other ways so it's fine. That's what I'm really seeing DVC as. Do I want to buy in to DVC because it will make me happy because I love vacationing at Disney even though I know I could do it similarly and probably the same cost if not cheaper without DVC. Do I want to pay more for a Mercedes and drive in luxury or be prudent and drive a 1974 Ford Pinto and save my money.

Yes. It’s a tough call if you’re happy with moderate/value/off site. The refurbished All Star Music Family Suites are a pretty solid pick if you need an 1 bedroom or 3 beds! And it’s made tougher by DVC not truly being Mercedes. DVC is a worse product than a deluxe cash room. It doesn’t have daily housekeeping, the rooms are (mostly) smaller than their cash counterparts, many of the studios don’t have 2 real beds, you have to plan way ahead, and the cancellation policy is trash.

And since Disney (unlike universal) only discounts their product with room and virtually never with park tickets (and certainly not with typical park tickets), you’re removing yourself from the discount pool.

 

[InabinettheCabinet]

Yes. It’s a tough call if you’re happy with moderate/value/off site. The refurbished All Star Music Family Suites are a pretty solid pick if you need an 1 bedroom or 3 beds! And it’s made tougher by DVC not truly being Mercedes. DVC is a worse product than a deluxe cash room. It doesn’t have daily housekeeping, the rooms are (mostly) smaller than their cash counterparts, many of the studios don’t have 2 real beds, you have to plan way ahead, and the cancellation policy is trash.

And since Disney (unlike universal) only discounts their product with room and virtually never with park tickets (and certainly not with typical park tickets), you’re removing yourself from the discount pool.

Yeah it's very tough. We always stay at Coronado and POR and love it. But we do occasionally like staying at the deluxe level. That's why I'm entertaining DVC. But then I ask myself for the amount of time in the room and at the resort, does it even matter about the resort. Maybe I'm better off renting points instead of buying into the product.

 

[peabody58]

Build a spreadsheet to include resorts, costs, points, pros/cons, etc.

Decisions like this can only be made logically by a spreadsheet. This should remove a lot of the emotional input.

I live by spreadsheet decisions.

And have fun!

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Decisions like this can only be made logically by a spreadsheet. This should remove a lot of the emotional input.

I dunno I’ve seen people build some pretty emotional spreadsheets. “Oh yeah we’ll compare the buy in to VGF list cash prices (instead of the 30% off of Pop Century we’d actually book)”

 

[tom1944]

I dunno I’ve seen people build some pretty emotional spreadsheets. “Oh yeah we’ll compare the buy in to VGF list cash prices (instead of the 30% off of Pop Century we’d actually book)”

I posted this in the ROFR thread but this was my calculation

I factored in the value of a commitment to vacation.

The other major factor was the receipt of money (accrued vacation time payment) that I considered found money.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Yeah it's very tough. We always stay at Coronado and POR and love it. But we do occasionally like staying at the deluxe level. That's why I'm entertaining DVC. But then I ask myself for the amount of time in the room and at the resort, does it even matter about the resort. Maybe I'm better off renting points instead of buying into the product.

We use the Swan a lot bc of my Marriott upgrades and what not. Would probably split stay with the Swan even if I bought in. I'm starting to make some lowball offers just to get my feet wet. I have no realistic expectations for them to be accepted but it allows me to start feeling comfortable with the process. And if by some chance it comes through then I'll just say hey it's a new adventure! Also if I were even semi-local to Disney this would be a no brainer. Having to fly and add that cost in really becomes a deterrent. Not to mention tickets of course.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Yes. It’s a tough call if you’re happy with moderate/value/off site. The refurbished All Star Music Family Suites are a pretty solid pick if you need an 1 bedroom or 3 beds! And it’s made tougher by DVC not truly being Mercedes. DVC is a worse product than a deluxe cash room. It doesn’t have daily housekeeping, the rooms are (mostly) smaller than their cash counterparts, many of the studios don’t have 2 real beds, you have to plan way ahead, and the cancellation policy is trash.

And since Disney (unlike universal) only discounts their product with room and virtually never with park tickets (and certainly not with typical park tickets), you’re removing yourself from the discount pool.

I appreciate the very real take on the product!

 

[RoseGold]

Even in the 170s or 180s if it had incentives might not make it worth it for someone like me who would be interested in getting more value out of ownership than just staying in one resort I loved.

This is math. If your goal is cost efficiency, you can't beat SSR and the OKW/SSR point charts. But I would never stay there.

I think AKL, even at 110, is a cost-effective route for the value rooms, which are really hard to book for good reason. If you can get it occasionally, it flips the math. I'd bet the value rooms beat OKW/SSR, but aren't reliable to book.

This is the exact opposite strategy of the point hog Poly rooms, which were your other goal. Cool thing about cheap points is they work there too.

 

[PolyRob]

And it’s made tougher by DVC not truly being Mercedes. DVC is a worse product than a deluxe cash room. It doesn’t have daily housekeeping, the rooms are (mostly) smaller than their cash counterparts, many of the studios don’t have 2 real beds, you have to plan way ahead, and the cancellation policy is trash.

I dunno I’ve seen people build some pretty emotional spreadsheets. “Oh yeah we’ll compare the buy in to VGF list cash prices (instead of the 30% off of Pop Century we’d actually book)”

That's how I felt when I looked at joining. My family always booked deluxe resorts, but why go from 2 real beds in a cash room to only getting them in a 2-bedroom? I could almost always get a discount on GF cash rooms since they are so overpriced so I had to calculate against a 30% discount. I know direct benefits aren't guaranteed, but the AP savings definitely came into play because it can cover the entire dues for a contract depending on family size. Now that the resort studios have been added at GF it was an easy decision for me. Sure you give up space like a kitchen and washer and dryer, but I don't always need that. I like that it's identical to the GF cash rooms for a lot less money. GF also has towels in the hallway and trash so it's easy to tidy up quickly. Not to mention all the old sofa beds have been getting swapped to murphy beds in the original villa building (and across DVC). Makes me very happy I have lots of options there.

 

[StevieB81]

There are 6 in my family, so we always stay in a 2bdrm. We joined at BLT in 2009 when it was around $105/pt. We'll be using those points next year, hopefully, for a 10 day split between VGF and Riv. The maintenance fees for the points for that trip equate to ~22% of the rack rate. I know I could spend a lot less if I stayed somewhere else. But I'm not, and more importantly, I don't want to. Everything about a WDW vacation is an emotional decision. There is absolutely no need for any part of this park to exist. It is for enjoyment (frustration, anger , etc.) and is a want. Nothing about it makes financial sense. Ever. Some of the first advice people give is "make peace with the money". You're trading dollars for an emotional want. But if I'm gonna do it, let's do it. And why not save some money (not spend AS much) if I can by paying around 1.5-2 nights (rack rate) in maintenance fees and the rest are "free". We do less frequent, longer trips so the upfront cost was recouped halfway through our 4th trip. I have auto debit for MFs, so I don't have to write a check (or whatever) and I never miss the money. All of it is emotional. But, I believe, there is some financial sense to DVC. Even when the kids start not going with us all the time, my wife has decided that we won't be staying in anything less than a 1 bdrm. We could, but we're not.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

There are 6 in my family, so we always stay in a 2bdrm. We joined at BLT in 2009 when it was around $105/pt. We'll be using those points next year, hopefully, for a 10 day split between VGF and Riv. The maintenance fees for the points for that trip equate to ~22% of the rack rate. I know I could spend a lot less if I stayed somewhere else. But I'm not, and more importantly, I don't want to. Everything about a WDW vacation is an emotional decision. There is absolutely no need for any part of this park to exist. It is for enjoyment (frustration, anger , etc.) and is a want. Nothing about it makes financial sense. Ever. Some of the first advice people give is "make peace with the money". You're trading dollars for an emotional want. But if I'm gonna do it, let's do it. And why not save some money (not spend AS much) if I can by paying around 1.5-2 nights (rack rate) in maintenance fees and the rest are "free". We do less frequent, longer trips so the upfront cost was recouped halfway through our 4th trip. I have auto debit for MFs, so I don't have to write a check (or whatever) and I never miss the money. All of it is emotional. But, I believe, there is some financial sense to DVC. Even when the kids start not going with us all the time, my wife has decided that we won't be staying in anything less than a 1 bdrm. We could, but we're not.

I think it’s perfectly valid to buy in for emotional reasons, just like it’s okay to buy any other discretionary purchase, as long as you know that’s why you’re doing it. People buy things they want but don’t need all the time! We own an antique car that doesn’t drive. That’s a way worse “financial decision” than a DVC purchase. But we wanted it.

It’s also OK to buy DVC explicitly to try to save money. It’s good to save money! If you save enough you can buy some old cars that don’t work.

It’s the people who try to justify emotional purchases with bad math that I was referencing above. That, I think, only hurts the person lying to themselves.

At least until those people come here and try to encourage others to use their bad math.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Speaking of bad math lol...tell me if I'm even in the ballpark.

I just finished booking a full trip for next summer using my bounce back offer, roughly 35% off current rack rates. I have 4 nights at a BC water view and 5 nights at Poly resort view spanning the 4th of July holiday. This is our "usual" time and it would also be an extremely ideal trip as I love both these resorts. I'm going to "do the math" of getting the same combo with a resale AKV contract.

I'm going to assume:
- I get a 170 point AKV for $95pp to use as SAP.
- I could get cheaper for SAP but I'm saying AKV bc I'd be happy if that was all I could book as a last resort.
- Rack rates and Annual dues go up in lock step making that part of the math a wash.
- That BC and Poly would both be available at 7 months in some contiguous combination (yes I know this is probably not a possibility).
- This is a lot to assume but again for the sake of "the math".

I'm rounding numbers up or down a few dollars to simplify.

In cash next year's trip with bounce back is costing me $4500. That's 9 nights total 4 at BV then 5 at Poly.

A 170 point contract would be needed to book the same. A 170 point contract at AKV for $95 pp plus closing would be approximately $17,000.

Annual dues would be roughly $1500.

I subtract the annual dues from the cash cost of my trip leaving me with $3000 out of pocket.

17000/3000 = 5.6...

Therefore purchasing that DVC contract would have me at break even on my 6th trip.

Assuming all the variables don't...you know...vary...does that make sense?

And is there technically one further step to take it by saying I can reasonably and safely get 5% interest on that 17000 which when compounded over 6 years nets $5780 profit which would mean I would have to go on my 9th trip before I say to myself that DVC contract would've been worth it.

I'm playing my own devils advocate because we've established this isn't about straight math but more of a luxury purchase that brings happiness. BUT having said that...does the math I laid out at least SORTA make sense the way I'm presenting it?

 

[StevieB81]

I think you have to subtract the cost of the cash stay each year from the 17000 investment. Does that make sense?

 

[StevieB81]

The time value of money thing (which I think gets over-played) only works straight forward if you wouldn't have spent any of that money under any circumstance, i.e. no vacation at all. I'm sure someone will disagree with me.