POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[IamTrike]

Random Data point for you Billy. Noah and I submitted a 50:14 and 50:15 10k POTs for the Princess challenge this year. He was in A and I was in B for the half. Our bibs were 20699 and 20273 respectively. I was surprised that a 1 second difference would have that big of an impact.

 

[DopeyBadger]

This might be a fairly unique data point: I submitted a marathon time of 3:57:43 for the 2019 Princess Half Marathon. I was pleasantly surprised to be placed in Corral A because the McMillan calculator estimated a 1:52:57 pace. Any ideas @DopeyBadger? I ended up PRing and got in under the 1:50 designation of Corral A, so maybe RunDisney knows me better than I know myself?!

That's an interesting one. So for the HM POTs runDisney appears to use a value very close to a Rigel R of 1.06. McMillan is a 1.07. But for the M POTs, runDisney uses a value closer to 1.08. So this is an interesting case because to get a sub-1:50 HM for placement you'd need a M time of:

1.06 = 3:49:18
1.07 = 3:50:54
1.08 = 3:52:31
1.112 = 3:57:43

Your M time of 3:57:43 is a 1:52:27 using a 1.08 conversion. So this placement definitely breaks the mold as it would require a 1.112 conversion which is quite unusual. Could be a case where they saw a M POT submitted for a HM race on a HM weekend and gave you the benefit of the doubt. Thanks for sharing! Also, congrats on the PR and sub-1:50!

Random Data point for you Billy. Noah and I submitted a 50:14 and 50:15 10k POTs for the Princess challenge this year. He was in A and I was in B for the half. Our bibs were 20699 and 20273 respectively. I was surprised that a 1 second difference would have that big of an impact.

So the cutoff for A placement is currently estimated to be a 50:00 min 10k. So your 50:14 and 50:15 are very close to that cutoff. You may very well have been the exact cutoff based on your experience. Because if I use a Rigel R of 1.05 instead of 1.057 (like I'm currently using for a 10k), then the cutoff becomes 50:15. So it's quite possible the cutoff is indeed 50:15 and they're using a more round number R value there. This is very helpful information.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think based on @IamTrike 's experience at Princess 2019, I will amend the estimated cutoffs slightly for a HM POT placement into corral. I am now using a Rigel R of 1.05 for HM placement. Again, these are estimates and not meant to be held as truth.

 

[flav]

@DopeyBadger do you still have the sizes of the 2019 MW corrals (or a link to them), please? I tried to find them on the Marathon thread with no luck. I am trying to determine whether it is worth improving my POT to move from C to B corrals. TIA

 

[camaker]

I think based on @IamTrike 's experience at Princess 2019, I will amend the estimated cutoffs slightly for a HM POT placement into corral. I am now using a Rigel R of 1.05 for HM placement. Again, these are estimates and not meant to be held as truth.

View attachment 386375

Well, this stinks. I was looking at the wrong set of tables for my PoT needs! I thought a sub-2:00 was going to keep me in B for Dopey when it’s really sub-1:53 or so. I’d essentially need to set a new PR in the next 6 months and I don’t see that happening.

 

[DopeyBadger]

@DopeyBadger do you still have the sizes of the 2019 MW corrals (or a link to them), please? I tried to find them on the Marathon thread with no luck. I am trying to determine whether it is worth improving my POT to move from C to B corrals. TIA

Here are the 2018 corrals



and the 2019 corrals



The difference between Corral B and C is about 9-12% of the field (or about 2000-3500 runners). And maybe about 4-5 minutes start time buffer.

Well, this stinks. I was looking at the wrong set of tables for my PoT needs! I thought a sub-2:00 was going to keep me in B for Dopey when it’s really sub-1:53 or so. I’d essentially need to set a new PR in the next 6 months and I don’t see that happening.

Bummer! Maybe a 1:25 10 miler instead?

 

[Professor_Cookie]

You can try a Revel Race. Big Cottonwood is in September. Paved 3000 foot loss half.

 

[camaker]

You can try a Revel Race. Big Cottonwood is in September. Paved 3000 foot loss half.

Thanks for the suggestion! Unfortunately, those races are a bit far from NC for a (maybe) one corral bump. I’ll have to take my chances with something around here after a summer of training.

 

[flav]

Well, this stinks. I was looking at the wrong set of tables for my PoT needs! I thought a sub-2:00 was going to keep me in B for Dopey when it’s really sub-1:53 or so. I’d essentially need to set a new PR in the next 6 months and I don’t see that happening.

We will run together then!

ETA: Current POT is a 1:55:50 Half. Upcoming race are Half in June for which I haven’t switch gears yet and my first Full in September... New POT not likely to happen for me neither.

 

[Professor_Cookie]

Thanks for the suggestion! Unfortunately, those races are a bit far from NC for a (maybe) one corral bump. I’ll have to take my chances with something around here after a summer of training.

Yeah. I am totally having an internal struggle as to weather I really need to jump up corrals that badly under the guise of actually stopping for characters this time around, when I will probably skip them anyways.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

My previous HM PR was very close to the cutoff for POT for a 5:30 marathon. I just ran a 2:23:47 a couple weeks ago and I am so glad I am much more firmly in the range and have a solid POT should I decide to register for the 2020 marathon. I know it may not be exact, but I can’t believe how close I was to the time that actually could have been D instead of E.

 

[DopeyBadger]

My previous HM PR was very close to the cutoff for POT for a 5:30 marathon. I just ran a 2:23:47 a couple weeks ago and I am so glad I am much more firmly in the range and have a solid POT should I decide to register for the 2020 marathon. I know it may not be exact, but I can’t believe how close I was to the time that actually could have been D instead of E.

Congrats on such a great improvement on your HM PR!

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

Congrats on such a great improvement on your HM PR!

Thanks!

 

[IamTrike]

Well, this stinks. I was looking at the wrong set of tables for my PoT needs! I thought a sub-2:00 was going to keep me in B for Dopey when it’s really sub-1:53 or so. I’d essentially need to set a new PR in the next 6 months and I don’t see that happening.

I’m not sure where in NC you are. I’m looking at the crawling crab in Hampton VA as a POT race. It’s Oct 5. The race is flat and the temps are usually pretty good. J and A puts on good races too.

The 13.1 Raleigh and The historic hills borough half are both that weekend too but they are pretty hilly.

The myrtle beach mini and OBX are both too late.

 

[camaker]

I’m not sure where in NC you are. I’m looking at the crawling crab in Hampton VA as a POT race. It’s Oct 5. The race is flat and the temps are usually pretty good. J and A puts on good races too.

The 13.1 Raleigh and The historic hills borough half are both that weekend too but they are pretty hilly.

The myrtle beach mini and OBX are both too late.

You’re in Raleigh, if I remember correctly, right? I’m essentially right there with you. Holly Springs. Thanks for the info on Crawling Crab. I’ll have to look into it, although it looks like DD and I may be going down to run Space Coast at Thanksgiving. That and Dopey would pretty much eat my race traveling funds, precluding a trip to VA.

I’ve run both the Raleigh Race 13.1s a couple of times and while they’re nice, inexpensive races, I wouldn’t call them conducive to PoT runs. Just too many hills in our neck of the woods. Tobacco Road remains my half PR, but that ship has sailed. Speaking of ships, Battleship isn’t a bad course, but it falls too late, as well.

 

[huskies90]

Can someone share the email address to ask Track Shack about a POT corral assignment?

My current POT for the Dopey Challenge is a half marathon at 1:43:59 which according to @DopeyBadger 's chart would put me in corral A by 3 seconds. If I can get a confirmation from Track Shack, it should help solidify his corral predictions. I am planning to try to beat this time in June, but if I can get a confirmation from Track Shack that I am already in A, it will take the pressure off my race in June.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Can someone share the email address to ask Track Shack about a POT corral assignment?

My current POT for the Dopey Challenge is a half marathon at 1:43:59 which according to @DopeyBadger 's chart would put me in corral A by 3 seconds. If I can get a confirmation from Track Shack, it should help solidify his corral predictions. I am planning to try to beat this time in June, but if I can get a confirmation from Track Shack that I am already in A, it will take the pressure off my race in June.

I corresponded with disneysports@trackshack.com back in August 2018 to get the original set of race equivalency confirmed POT submission cutoffs. So you could try there. I'll be interested to hear whether they give you a straight answer on actual corral placement. Normally the questions they receive are an either/or like, "is this 10mi time better than this HM time per your calculator?" Let us know what you hear.

 

[huskies90]

I corresponded with disneysports@trackshack.com back in August 2018 to get the original set of race equivalency confirmed POT submission cutoffs. So you could try there. I'll be interested to hear whether they give you a straight answer on actual corral placement. Normally the questions they receive are an either/or like, "is this 10mi time better than this HM time per your calculator?" Let us know what you hear.

Thanks for the email address. Here is the email I sent and their response. Not very definitive:

Hello - I submitted a half marathon Proof of Time of 1:43:59 for the 2020 Dopey Challenge. Based on your race equivalency calculation, is it possible to tell me if my submitted time is good enough to be in Corral A? It will help me decide if I should run another race before the deadline.

Response:

Thank you for reaching out. Our verifier went ahead and did the industry standard calculation that is used. Your 1:43:59 half marathon would calculate to a 3:39 full marathon. Based on the 2019 WDW Marathon event, this time would have placed you in Corral A. Each year the corral times change slightly. As long as the event you submitted took place between January 1, 2018 and the deadline of October 8, 2019, your proof would be considered for placement. Please note that corral placement is not guaranteed due to corral capacities and runDisney operational safety standards.

We wish you magical miles!

Thank you,
Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney

 

[DopeyBadger]

Thanks for the email address. Here is the email I sent and their response. Not very definitive:

Hello - I submitted a half marathon Proof of Time of 1:43:59 for the 2020 Dopey Challenge. Based on your race equivalency calculation, is it possible to tell me if my submitted time is good enough to be in Corral A? It will help me decide if I should run another race before the deadline.

Response:

Thank you for reaching out. Our verifier went ahead and did the industry standard calculation that is used. Your 1:43:59 half marathon would calculate to a 3:39 full marathon. Based on the 2019 WDW Marathon event, this time would have placed you in Corral A. Each year the corral times change slightly. As long as the event you submitted took place between January 1, 2018 and the deadline of October 8, 2019, your proof would be considered for placement. Please note that corral placement is not guaranteed due to corral capacities and runDisney operational safety standards.

We wish you magical miles!

Thank you,
Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney

I'd say the response is as expected. If they don't change anything, then you're very likely in corral A. But there are no guarantees as runDisney has changed their corralling procedure in the past. They don't want this email to lock them in to something specific where you can come back and say "see you said I'd be in A". So they leave themselves an out. Their calculator with an equivalent of 3:39 is as predicted with the calculations I've come up with, meaning you're very very close to the cutline, but appear to be on the faster side of the cut:

 

[Tall Todd]

I'm not sure if these charts also translate to the Food & Wine events. For the two course challenge, world it be wiser to submit a 2:34 half or a 1:07 10k?