All you have to do is ask a cast member that works the ride consistently. I have found that they are pretty spot on if you ask them how long the wait is. Plus they used to hand out those little cards that they scan that kept track of wait times.
Yes, but those red cards were a lagging indicator of the wait time.
If someone were handed a red card while entering a line at 1 PM and handed in the card at 2 PM, that would tell them that the actual wait at 1 PM was 60 minutes. That doesn’t mean that the actual wait time at 2 PM is still 60 minutes.
There are inevitably going to be some ebbs and flows in actual wait times, especially for the most popular attractions.
If a CM at the attraction thinks the current wait time is about 30 minutes, I would bet they are instructed to post something like 40- 45 minutes to anticipate the possibility of a surge.
Especially in the middle of the day I think those posted wait times are inflated mostly to avoid guest dissatisfaction, not to deviously squeeze more money out of them. Just my opinion.
We also use the Touring Plans estimates as a guide to deciding whether or not to enter a line. Often there isn’t that much of a difference, and some times there is. We usually find our actual wait to be between the two, and maybe closer to the TP estimate.