Poly Tower Speculation

[emchen]

I would love to own at riv some day if they drop the restrictions.

I think @Sandisw @sethschroeder and even founder Pete, as well as many other veterans of the Dis felt this sentiment.

I think they are learning that pricing is what drives sales

Then they bought contracts there when the price was right (in their view) to discount for the restrictions...and owning RIV as Exclusive Use Points.

Who knows, @hockeydad21 you may end up owning there sooner than you thought (before they drop the restrictions).

 

[Sandisw]

Between March 1, 2022 and June 30, 2023
VGF sold 1,144,333 points
RIV sold 990,035 points

That’s the time since VGF2 sales went live up until the end of last month.

Numbers taken from DVCnews.com

Disney’s Riviera Resort — In March 2022, 70,789 points were sold for Riviera.
Disney has sold 2,782,300 points.

Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort — In June 2023, 75,687 points were sold for Grand Floridian,
Disney has sold 1,144,333
Disney’s Riviera Resort — In June, Riviera sold 40,025 points,
Disney has now sold 3,701,546 Riviera points,

Thanks for this! I was going to do it…but to bring this back to Poly tower, my guess is that this is the data that DVD uses to support moving forward with restricted resorts.

Head to head, they are pretty close to each other.

I just wish that they would announce…or at least try to file some updates that someone here sees to give us more…even if it’s just room sizes!

 

[Genie+]

For new direct buyers I think restrictions are low on their radar because ‘restrictions don’t apply to them’. Well at least until they go to sell but who is in as a new direct buyer and thinking about selling? Most are not.

 

[Sandisw]

I think @Sandisw @sethschroeder and even founder Pete, as well as many other veterans of the Dis felt this sentiment.

Then they bought contracts there when the price was right (in their view) to discount for the restrictions...and owning RIV as Exclusive Use Points.

Who knows, @hockeydad21 you may end up owning there sooner than you thought (before they drop the restrictions).

So true! I was a never ever in a million years will I buy it…and toured, fell in love, and not only bought direct but resale too! Realized that not owning something I will enjoy using for some long term potential loss in value just didn’t make sense for us!

It’s why restrictions don’t bother and why I could end up buying Poly tower if it’s a new association with restrictions.

My guess is that if Poly tower has them, just like VDH does, it won’t deter people from buying it because an MK resort is….well, an MK resort!!

 

[Genie+]

Once VGF2 sells out, resale restrictions will just be a fact for WDW direct that doesn’t matter to buyers who plan on using the contract.

 

[maui22]

Years ago, I recall many pointing out the majority of DVC buyers are not on the boards or checking all the details. Many are simply vacationing with their family and having a great time. They visit a DVC booth and ask questions. They decide to buy as an emotional purchase.

This actually applies to many (certainly not all) non-Disney timeshare sales as well. Many timeshares are worthless the minute they are bought. People literally have to give or pay someone to take them away. Even with this, companies make a ton of money selling these timeshares.

Resale restrictions are likely something a minor percentage of new purchasers are even aware of.

 

[DaveNan]

Years ago, I recall many pointing out the majority of DVC buyers are not on the boards or checking all the details. Many are simply vacationing with their family and having a great time. They visit a DVC booth and ask questions. They decide to buy as an emotional purchase.

This actually applies to many (certainly not all) non-Disney timeshare sales as well. Many timeshares are worthless the minute they are bought. People literally have to give or pay someone to take them away. Even with this, companies make a ton of money selling these timeshares.

Resale restrictions are likely something a minor percentage of new purchasers are even aware of.

The guides might even mention the restrictions, but just at a high level. "Points you buy directly from Disney can be used to stay anywhere. Resale points cannot be used at all the resorts." While this does not give all the details, it is a true statement.

 

[Amy Krieger]

FWIW, I believe Amy Krieger is now of the belief the tower will be a new association. At least, that's what I recall from watching a podcast someone posted earlier this week.

I very much still think it will be the same association.

 

[tidefan]

I very much still think it will be the same association.

One thing that I think people aren't also considering as much is from DVD's perspective what a 40 year lease looks like versus a 50 year lease.

Let's assume points are $230 per point and someone bought a 150 point contract for a total of $34,500.

Over 40 years, that's $5.75 per point used (assuming 6,000 points over the life of the contract)

Over 50 years, that's $4.60 per point used (assuming 7,500 points over the life of the contract)

Also, DVD can then resell at the 40 year mark, essentially making more $$ at that point for the contract renewal (this was another reason I did not and still do not see GFV as a great deal compared to when it went on sale in 2013/2014). I think that you have to factor in length of contract as a factor as well.

Now, is it enough to outweigh restrictions? No idea. Will be interesting to watch, I am just putting it out there that it would financially benefit DVD to only have 40 year liability versus 50 year liability...

 

[Sandisw]

One thing that I think people aren't also considering as much is from DVD's perspective what a 40 year lease looks like versus a 50 year lease.

Let's assume points are $230 per point and someone bought a 150 point contract for a total of $34,500.

Over 40 years, that's $5.75 per point used (assuming 6,000 points over the life of the contract)

Over 50 years, that's $4.60 per point used (assuming 7,500 points over the life of the contract)

Also, DVD can then resell at the 40 year mark, essentially making more $$ at that point for the contract renewal (this was another reason I did not and still do not see GFV as a great deal compared to when it went on sale in 2013/2014). I think that you have to factor in length of contract as a factor as well.

Now, is it enough to outweigh restrictions? No idea. Will be interesting to watch, I am just putting it out there that it would financially benefit DVD to only have 40 year liability versus 50 year liability...

Or they make it new and keep it 40 years? Similar to what they did at the beginning?

 

[kilik64]

Short term - do resale restrictions matter? Probably, but RIV resale is not bottom of the barrel cheap either...

Long term - Maybe, maybe not, since at the rate its going in 30 years the majority of resorts (including whatever they replace bcv, bw, etc with come 2042) will be restricted as well. And the ones that are still part of the o14 will be so small as to not matter (2053 so like 6 o14 left but SSR dropping next year). At that point you'll buy where you want to stay resale for real, as it'll literally be the only option if you are not willing to pay the direct premium.

Now what that does to resale, who knows, but I cant imagine it'll tank values too seriously when nearly everything is restricted to use at home resort only, but it could change the delta between resale and direct as the biggest perk then as now will be ability to use points at all resorts, and even more so then.

 

[tidefan]

Or they make it new and keep it 40 years? Similar to what they did at the beginning?

They could very well do that. Will be interesting to see...

 

[BeachClub2014]

We still have not seen any evidence to suggest a correlation, let alone causation, between restrictions, sales and prices. It gets thrown out often and is almost always based on the rate of sales for the Riv versus GF2. That argument ignores every other variable, like theming, location, transportation, room views, point charts, amenities, price point, etc. Now, if you were to compare resorts currently in active sales that were next to one another, had similar theming, similar transportation, similar room views, similar points charts, similar amenities, etc. AND one had restrictions, and the other didn't; you might have an argument.

I think DVC will continue to double down on the restrictions and keep them in place for new resorts, including the new poly tower.

 

[hockeydad21]

One thing that I think people aren't also considering as much is from DVD's perspective what a 40 year lease looks like versus a 50 year lease.

Let's assume points are $230 per point and someone bought a 150 point contract for a total of $34,500.

Over 40 years, that's $5.75 per point used (assuming 6,000 points over the life of the contract)

Over 50 years, that's $4.60 per point used (assuming 7,500 points over the life of the contract)

Also, DVD can then resell at the 40 year mark, essentially making more $$ at that point for the contract renewal (this was another reason I did not and still do not see GFV as a great deal compared to when it went on sale in 2013/2014). I think that you have to factor in length of contract as a factor as well.

Now, is it enough to outweigh restrictions? No idea. Will be interesting to watch, I am just putting it out there that it would financially benefit DVD to only have 40 year liability versus 50 year liability...

Bingo! Using round numbers to keep it simple…say the new poly tower has 5 million points allocated to it, and you (Disney) are trying to decide between current or new association. The price they charge for when it goes on sale next year will be the same regardless of which association they choose, but the question becomes whether or not they’d prefer to financially flip this over beginning in 2066 or 2074. Do you want to have roughly $1.75 billion (5 million points x $350 per point (completely guessing per point cost into the future)) hitting your bottom line in 2066, or do you want $1.875b (5 million points x $375 per point) hitting your bottom line in 2074? The board would want that money hitting their books again ASAP.

In my opinion, the ability to resell the entire resort 8 years sooner would be far more enticing than any small gains they could make by ROFRing resale contracts to turn them back into direct (non-restricted) for the next 20-25ish years.

Barring a recession, the poly tower is most likely going to sell extremely fast regardless of association. It all comes down to how far down the road DVD really wants to look. It's safe (and sad) to say that none of these individuals making these types of business decisions will still be with Disney come 2066 let alone 2074, so at the end of the day they very well may not care about the outlook that far down the road.

Every point I've made thus far could very quickly be proven wrong in one short press release 8 months from now, so who knows! It's all up for debate which is what makes it fun.

 

[tom1944]

If Poly2 is the same association would that have a negative impact on Riviera prices?

 

[kristenrice]

Is the fact that GFV2 was only one type of room (resort studios) a possible reason it was rolled into the same association? I am not interested in GFV in general, but buying a contract (with resale restrictions) at a resort that has only one type of accommodations would not appeal to me. That is essentially what the current situation is at PVB1 right now, which makes me wonder how much demand there will be for PVB1 with only studios and bungalows available. DVD will still acquire and sell PVB1 direct so I wonder if those who love the Poly would prefer the greater flexibility of room types, and they will opt for PVB2, leaving a surplus of PVB1 hanging around.

 

[tidefan]

Is the fact that GFV2 was only one type of room (resort studios) a possible reason it was rolled into the same association? I am not interested in GFV in general, but buying a contract (with resale restrictions) at a resort that has only one type of accommodations would not appeal to me. That is essentially what the current situation is at PVB1 right now, which makes me wonder how much demand there will be for PVB1 with only studios and bungalows available. DVD will still acquire and sell PVB1 direct so I wonder if those who love the Poly would prefer the greater flexibility of room types, and they will opt for PVB2, leaving a surplus of PVB1 hanging around.

I mean, PVB1 sold out over 4 million points in just 2 1/2 years... but hey, I guess no one wants to go there or buy there...

Seriously though, it will be interesting to see how many studios are in the PVB2 building. If there are not a lot, competition for those will be fierce (similar to how the DLX studios go early now in the 11 month priority period at GFV).

Also, personally, I just don't get the allure of PVB2, especially without knowing the details. If it is a separate association, in addition to resale restrictions, I would bet that there will be enough point inflation to make the existing longhouses look like a good deal...

 

[MyDogTink]

Currently the cabins are bookable until the end of 2024. Maybe they're planning to roll the new DVC in phases and have some old cabins bookable for a while. Or maybe, regardless of when the new DVC cabins will go online, they'll just honour the existing reservations and move guests to the new DVC (which will probably be better, so it would be a great deal).
Or maybe it means they're planning to open DVC FW in late 2014, so the new Poly will open first. To make the new FW a deluxe resort, they'll have to make some infrastructure work, probably add a new pool, and those take time.

I saw the availability for the cabins in 2024. How many cabins are there? Enough to make it a new association?

 

[kristenrice]

I mean, PVB1 sold out over 4 million points in just 2 1/2 years... but hey, I guess no one wants to go there or buy there...

Seriously though, it will be interesting to see how many studios are in the PVB2 building. If there are not a lot, competition for those will be fierce (similar to how the DLX studios go early now in the 11 month priority period at GFV).

Also, personally, I just don't get the allure of PVB2, especially without knowing the details. If it is a separate association, in addition to resale restrictions, I would bet that there will be enough point inflation to make the existing longhouses look like a good deal...

To be fair, PVB1 is the only DVC option available at the Poly right now. I remember when it was announced and the Poly devotees were giddy with excitement. It was the only "Poly" option....but now there will be two. Yes, they are different in their own ways, but they are similar enough that they are both still the "Polynesian" villas.

I completely agree with your second point...if they don't put a lot of studios in the tower, then PVB1 will be preferred for those who want studios, which recent history would suggest is the trend for new buyers.

I think the biggest allure of the new tower is the fact that it will have multiple room types so that owners can "grow into" the resort. PVB1 is great if you ONLY want to stay in a studio...every time you stay at the Poly. PVB2, with studios/1BR/2BR will allow owners the ability to bank/borrow to "upgrade" to bigger rooms when the kids need space, or "downgrade" when it's just a couple's trip. They are not forced into the same room type every time they stay at the resort.

I own a meager 100 points at AKV and I love the fact that I can choose value studios, savanna view studios, value 1BR's, standard view 1BR, or bank/borrow for 2BR's. I can opt between Jambo (when I want a studio or value 1BR) or Kidani (when I want the larger 1BR with the extra bathroom). Often, I split my stay between the two...but I enjoy having that option. I think that would be the biggest benefit to making PVB1 and PVB2 the same association. There is obviously a HUGE appeal to staying at PVB1 and that appeal would carry over to the marketing of PVB2 if it were rolled into the same association.

Additionally, it's quite possible that some of the original buyers at PVB1 are starting to grow out of the studios and they are not interested in the point-gobbling bungalows. Their interest in 1BR/2BR at PVB2 could be offset by new PVB2 owners who want to stay in the original PVB1 studios...who knows? I'm just speculating...

 

[kilik64]

Curve ball, not sure if its even something they could legally do, but same association AND restricted for anyone NOT a current poly owner?

Current poly owner, whether resale or direct, gets access to new tower. Any OTHER resale points are restricted from access to the tower rooms but still have access to the longhouses and bungalows?