Poly Tower Speculation

[KimMcGowan]

I just find it really odd thst they still have not yet shared the decision.

Now, I will say this…while I still think it’s going to be its own resort, my guess is more like 80% now and it’s due to them specially announcing FW cabins as the 17th resort, and not announcing and clarifying Poly tower.

I don’t think you can ignore this. (Not you specifically). There is a reason they have said anything. The reason why is anybody’s guess. . And people saying that they may never announce it because it is a forgone conclusion? They certainly announced it with FW.
I am not sure what they will do, I am literally 50/50.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I don’t think you can ignore this. (Not you specifically). There is a reason they have said anything. The reason why is anybody’s guess. . And people saying that they may never announce it because it is a forgone conclusion? They certainly announced it with FW.
I am not sure what they will do, I am literally 50/50.

Did DVC announce that the new DVC cabins at FW will have restrictions?

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think you can ignore this. (Not you specifically). There is a reason they have said anything. The reason why is anybody’s guess. . And people saying that they may never announce it because it is a forgone conclusion? They certainly announced it with FW.
I am not sure what they will do, I am literally 50/50.

That could very well be it. And,while I still lean that is new, the ref trhey did FW the way they did does give me some pause.

It may have moved the needle from being condfidenr feom 99% sure it will be new to more like 80 to 85% new.

Just wish they would announce to our us all out of our guessing!

 

[TSMIII]

I'm personally on the fence, leaning 55/45 toward separate association (entirely due to restrictions, to be clear), but I'll play Devil's Advocate here and try to make the case for same association:

• They're both at the Poly (merely a prerequisite, not a significant indicator)
• It looks like they're going to complete construction, begin sales, and open just before the '40 year deadline'
  • There's a law in Florida that says something like 'you need to sell new timeshares with at least a 40yr lease'
  • Every other resort that expanded clear of the '40 year deadline' was the same association:
    • Treehouses to SSR
    • Kidani to Jambo
    • VGF2 to VGF1 (VGF2 also barely cleared the deadline, fwiw)
  • CCV was well past the '40 year deadline' for VWL (would have been just ~25yrs)

Hello, just a bit of clarification for Kidani. It actually wasn't an expansion in the same way as the Treehouses or VGF2. It was known to be part of the AKV association from the beginning.

The marketing materials given to prospective members when Jambo House points went on sale in 2007 had details about Kidani Village and construction work began on it that year. You knew going in that Kidani was coming.

As for Poly Tower, no idea. It could go either way. Separate and they can do the resale restrictions and other things if they want. As part of PVB, they gain more flexibility to re-allocate the point charts.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think you can ignore this. (Not you specifically). There is a reason they have said anything. The reason why is anybody’s guess. . And people saying that they may never announce it because it is a forgone conclusion? They certainly announced it with FW.
I am not sure what they will do, I am literally 50/50.

They announced FW would be the 17th resort, But, they did not announce restrictions for it and never announced those for VDH.

We discovered it here by having someone check their new contract when it showed VDH rooms added to the multisite POS.

The more I think of it, the reason they might have announced FW as the 17th resort is because it’s opening before Poly tower and so if the tower ends up being it’s own association it’d have to be the 18th.

Which might explain why nothing was said when Poly tower was announced, I am betting that the plans were already in the works for FW cabins to be DVC and maybe they were not yet sure which one would open first.

I still think we will find out when someone sees the documents with the name of the tower or the document that shows it’s a phase of PVB.

 

[Genie+]

If separate, is it going to be PVB and PV2?

 

[zavandor]

The more I think of it, the reason they might have announced FW as the 17th resort is because it’s opening before Poly tower and so if the tower ends up being it’s own association it’d have to be the 18th.

Currently the cabins are bookable until the end of 2024. Maybe they're planning to roll the new DVC in phases and have some old cabins bookable for a while. Or maybe, regardless of when the new DVC cabins will go online, they'll just honour the existing reservations and move guests to the new DVC (which will probably be better, so it would be a great deal).
Or maybe it means they're planning to open DVC FW in late 2014, so the new Poly will open first. To make the new FW a deluxe resort, they'll have to make some infrastructure work, probably add a new pool, and those take time.

 

[Sandisw]

Currently the cabins are bookable until the end of 2024. Maybe they're planning to roll the new DVC in phases and have some old cabins bookable for a while. Or maybe, regardless of when the new DVC cabins will go online, they'll just honour the existing reservations and move guests to the new DVC (which will probably be better, so it would be a great deal).
Or maybe it means they're planning to open DVC FW in late 2014, so the new Poly will open first. To make the new FW a deluxe resort, they'll have to make some infrastructure work, probably add a new pool, and those take time.

My guess is that they will be replacing them all but not declare all which is why they are bookable for cash.

I think announcing FW as the 17th really indicates those are opening before the tower since Poly tower always was late 2024 and cabins just 2024.

Just an idea on why nothjng was said when they announced the tower.

I am not saying it’s a sure thing that it’s a new association.

But, not calling it the 17th resort last year, allowed them to wait until the timeline for the cabins was decided..

I believe they knew that was going to happen when Poly tower was announced.

Now, if it is new, it will be deemed the 18th resort. The flip side, of course, is that it’s not and no need to call it anything.

It still is odd that they have not declared it one way or the other so far after it was announced.

 

[maui22]

Amy Krieger has an article explaining announcing VGF as the same resort at the original announcement was a mistake. It harmed direct sales and resulted in many going to resale.

Has anyone heard anymore information on restaurants in the tower? Asking because existing restaurants are already beyond capacity at most times. Without additional restaurants in the tower, it's going to be a problem for Polynesian.

 

[Sandisw]

Amy Krieger has an article explaining announcing VGF as the same resort at the original announcement was a mistake. It harmed direct sales and resulted in many going to resale.

Has anyone heard anymore information on restaurants in the tower? Asking because existing restaurants are already beyond capacity at most times. Without additional restaurants in the tower, it's going to be a problem for Polynesian.

I have to disagree that it harmed direct sales because DVD stopped selling points to the resort....sales were extremely strong the first few months.

No further news about the project than what was said last year....

 

[kilik64]

I have to disagree that it harmed direct sales because DVD stopped selling points to the resort....sales were extremely strong the first few months.

No further news about the project than what was said last year....

It might have a little, but even if it did, those people most likely regretted it. If I recall correctly, VGF resale was super high at the time, maybe 180-190? Then when the sales to members only opened and with incentives you were down in the 170s, it completely killed resale.

It sold like gangbusters that first couple of months, so no clue where she gets the idea that people bought up resale prior to it going on sale direct.

 

[Sandisw]

It might have a little, but even if it did, those people most likely regretted it. If I recall correctly, VGF resale was super high at the time, maybe 180-190? Then when the sales to members only opened and with incentives you were down in the 170s, it completely killed resale.

It sold like gangbusters that first couple of months, so no clue where she gets the idea that people bought up resale prior to it going on sale direct.

The price did skyrocket and dropped quite a bit when the new pricing came out. That is why I don’t agree that DVD sees it as a mistake for them because any potential loss…

I would have to go back and look at data to see how many VGF contracts sold even with our board sponsor during that time.

As you say, any buying frenzy for those 10 months would be small in comparison.

 

[maui22]

I have to disagree that it harmed direct sales because DVD stopped selling points to the resort....sales were extremely strong the first few months.

No further news about the project than what was said last year....

Thank you for the reply on details of restaurants.

Hard to tell the impacts. Disney announcement meant everyone who was not concerned about staying at RIV or future restricted resorts knew they could buy and have a chance to stay at all other resorts, Those who wanted RIV continued to buy.

Of course, stock market and Americans finances were significantly different from the time of the VGF announcement until sales started. Basically forced Disney to drop prices. Sponsor and other resellers probably know the best if people were telling them they were buying because of the announcement or not. I don’t know if Amy Krieger’s husband Paul provided her insight from resales when she wrote her article.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you for the reply on details of restaurants.

Hard to tell the impacts. Disney announcement meant everyone who was not concerned about staying at RIV or future restricted resorts knew they could buy and have a chance to stay at all other resorts, Those who wanted RIV continued to buy.

Of course, stock market and Americans finances were significantly different from the time of the VGF announcement until sales started. Basically forced Disney to drop prices. Sponsor and other resellers probably know the best if people were telling them they were buying because of the announcement or not. I don’t know if Amy Krieger’s husband Paul provided her insight from resales when she wrote her article.

Except, the price for VGF went up…so they were not a great deal. Those who bought then have lost about $20 to $30 point.

The strong sales in the first few months tells you that a ton of people, like myself, did not buy resale and went direct because we wanted unrestricted points.

While we would have to search the data to see how many VGF contracts sold hands in those 10 months, the term "a lot" is so subjective? Maybe 5000 to 10000 points could have been sold? In the scheme of things, that wouldn't cause DVD to blink.

Of course, being that they are involved with the broker, they have information that we don't have, but they also are on the side that PVB will be the same association, so it makes sense that is the opinion...and all of us are guessing.

I just think that the longer it goes on that they do not announce, knowing VDH was given the restrictions, that they announced FW cabins, pushing hard to get VGF sold out with the incentives right now, I still lean its going to have them.

Plus, maybe what DVD learned by announcing it would be part of the same association is that having restrictions for resale is only going to work if you follow through with your plan and by putting BPK into VGF, it muddied people's thinking....

 

[maui22]

Except, the price for VGF went up…so they were not a great deal. Those who bought then have lost about $20 to $30 point.

Thing is people who bought didn't know what the price would be. Speculation at the time was VGF price would be higher. Many people in the second half of 2022 and early 2023 were certain we were headed for a recession. Businesses were slowing down hiring. Tech sector has encountered some pretty large layoffs.

The strong sales in the first few months tells you that a ton of people, like myself, did not buy resale and went direct because we wanted unrestricted points.

Completely understand on the unrestricted points. It definitely factors into our decision. Sadly 2022 was a time where far less was certain about the restrictions. Back then, RIV was the only known restricted resort. FWIW, we feel the same way with restrictions. That being said, if DW and I buy at tower association (assuming it's a new resort), we have already agreed to only use the points at the tower.

Strong sales happened as we were also seeing the economy getting stronger. Look at today's 2nd quarter GDP for evidence of the economy improving and people's attitudes improving on spending.

While we would have to search the data to see how many VGF contracts sold hands in those 10 months, the term "a lot" is so subjective? Maybe 5000 to 10000 points could have been sold? In the scheme of things, that wouldn't cause DVD to blink.

Completely agree, today's scale of resale is nothing to DVD. Great recession was something else, but that was also reflected in DVD direct pricing discount. I believe we both bought BLT during those discounts.

Of course, being that they are involved with the broker, they have information that we don't have, but they also are on the side that PVB will be the same association, so it makes sense that is the opinion...and all of us are guessing.

FWIW, I believe Amy Krieger is now of the belief the tower will be a new association. At least, that's what I recall from watching a podcast someone posted earlier this week.

I just think that the longer it goes on that they do not announce, knowing VDH was given the restrictions, that they announced FW cabins, pushing hard to get VGF sold out with the incentives right now, I still lean its going to have them.

Plus, maybe what DVD learned by announcing it would be part of the same association is that having restrictions for resale is only going to work if you follow through with your plan and by putting BPK into VGF, it muddied people's thinking....

As a consumer, it's always nice when a business releases information well before a product is available. It makes decisions about future purchases much easier.

Personally, I wish we had a date for when sales will begin. I'm naive when it comes to construction timelines, seems like they have a lot of work to do.

 

[Sandisw]

Thing is people who bought didn't know what the price would be. Speculation at the time was VGF price would be higher. Many people in the second half of 2022 and early 2023 were certain we were headed for a recession. Businesses were slowing down hiring. Tech sector has encountered some pretty large layoffs.


Completely understand on the unrestricted points. It definitely factors into our decision. Sadly 2022 was a time where far less was certain about the restrictions. Back then, RIV was the only known restricted resort. FWIW, we feel the same way with restrictions. That being said, if DW and I buy at tower association (assuming it's a new resort), we have already agreed to only use the points at the tower.

Strong sales happened as we were also seeing the economy getting stronger. Look at today's 2nd quarter GDP for evidence of the economy improving and people's attitudes improving on spending.



Completely agree, today's scale of resale is nothing to DVD. Great recession was something else, but that was also reflected in DVD direct pricing discount. I believe we both bought BLT during those discounts.



FWIW, I believe Amy Krieger is now of the belief the tower will be a new association. At least, that's what I recall from watching a podcast someone posted earlier this week.



As a consumer, it's always nice when a business releases information well before a product is available. It makes decisions about future purchases much easier.

Personally, I wish we had a date for when sales will begin. I'm naive when it comes to construction timelines, seems like they have a lot of work to do.

Definitely been a fun 16 months talking about it! Many of us here were pretty confident that pricing would be the same as RIV and AUL in base price...$207....since pretty much every resort at that point always went to base....so it was surprising to see people paying what they were paying for VGF resale.

My guess for sales is next Spring. Thinking similar to what happened with VDH....the difference for 2024 though is the sales starting for FW cabins....

If I had to put an actual timeline on things, I will predict sales for FW cabins start in March with opening in the July and sales for Poly tower start in May with opening in November/December....no inside info, just my thoughts.

I do think we will have more info though before them about room sizes, and potentially new association and restrictions because last year, they did update the Multi-Site POS in late 2022 to add VDH and it was that document that we all discovered it would have the restrictions!!!

 

[tom1944]

I wonder if there will be an increase in resale contracts once POLY2 goes on sale.

My thought is that it is possible as people may sell their current contract to buy POLY2.

 

[CarolynFH]

I wonder if there will be an increase in resale contracts once POLY2 goes on sale.

My thought is that it is possible as people may sell their current contract to buy POLY2.

Possibly - especially those who thought a 5-person studio would always be fine for their family, then found out a 1+ BR was much more comfortable as the kids got older.

 

[emchen]

Definitely been a fun 16 months talking about it! Many of us here were pretty confident that pricing would be the same as RIV and AUL in base price...$207....since pretty much every resort at that point always went to base....so it was surprising to see people paying what they were paying for VGF resale.

I wasn't following things as closely back then, what were people paying for VGF resale?

 

[hockeydad21]

I wasn't following things as closely back then, what were people paying for VGF resale?

Here are the resale numbers for all the resorts from October 2020 - October 2021. You'll see that VGF peaked at $198 per point before falling back down to earth a little. There's a lot to dissect with those numbers that could influence/reinforce your belief on the new tower will be the same association or a new association.