Poly Tower Speculation

[emchen]

With Poly resale prices going low in the $130-140s (and compared to peak $183 in July 21), seems market sentiment is for the new Poly Tower to be a separate association. Certainly reinforces my bias that it will be a separate association.

 

[Genie+]

Didn’t VGF have a waitlist to buy direct (before v2 announced)? Some resale went over $200pp, kind of understandable for smaller contracts and people who did not want to wait in limbo.

I wonder if there will be an increase in resale contracts once POLY2 goes on sale.

My thought is that it is possible as people may sell their current contract to buy POLY2.

Before we recently bought direct, we were looking at Poly and VGF resale.

My thoughts on Poly resale (at around $135-140pp) were I’d be very happy if the tower was added, and still happy if the tower was separate because we’d enjoy the extra food and amenities options so close by. To me Poly resale is a great value because it’s a goldmine for WDW. Whatever develops in the future is likely to add value. I don’t think resale value will ever come down anywhere near $100. It’s a safe and glorious bet, lol. I think in recent yrs resale was undervalued because the psychologics on being able to get in at 7 months. With decades to go I think this resort remains a star. Quite possible 7 months does not remain easy, could even see skyliner nearby too. 40+ years… alot can happen I doubt any of it makes Poly less popular.

 

[Sandisw]

Didn’t VGF have a waitlist to buy direct (before v2 announced)? Some resale went over $200pp, kind of understandable for smaller contracts and people who did not want to wait in limbo.


Before we recently bought direct, we were looking at Poly and VGF resale.

My thoughts on Poly resale (at around $135-140pp) were I’d be very happy if the tower was added, and still happy if the tower was separate because we’d enjoy the extra food and amenities options so close by. To me Poly resale is a great value because it’s a goldmine for WDW. Whatever develops in the future is likely to add value. I don’t think resale value will ever come down anywhere near $100. It’s a safe and glorious bet, lol. I think in recent yrs resale was undervalued because the psychologics on being able to get in at 7 months. With decades to go I think this resort remains a star. Quite possible 7 months does not remain easy, could even see skyliner nearby too. 40+ years… alot can happen I doubt any of it makes Poly less popular.

Prior to the announcement, yes. After the announcement, they stopped selling completely and there was no longer any type of waitlist.

I also agree that the near park resorts at MK won’t ever drop too low, even once we get more restricted resorts….

I also think that RIV will hold above the $100 mark and in 18 years, may very well bounce higher when it becomes the least expensive Epcot area resort option.

 

[maui22]

Definitely been a fun 16 months talking about it! Many of us here were pretty confident that pricing would be the same as RIV and AUL in base price...$207....since pretty much every resort at that point always went to base....so it was surprising to see people paying what they were paying for VGF resale.

My guess for sales is next Spring. Thinking similar to what happened with VDH....the difference for 2024 though is the sales starting for FW cabins....

If I had to put an actual timeline on things, I will predict sales for FW cabins start in March with opening in the July and sales for Poly tower start in May with opening in November/December....no inside info, just my thoughts.

I do think we will have more info though before them about room sizes, and potentially new association and restrictions because last year, they did update the Multi-Site POS in late 2022 to add VDH and it was that document that we all discovered it would have the restrictions!!!

Hoping you are right on timing.

If PVB resale gets much lower, not sure we will be able to avoid adding on before tower goes on sale.

 

[hockeydad21]

With Poly resale prices going low in the $130-140s (and compared to peak $183 in July 21), seems market sentiment is for the new Poly Tower to be a separate association. Certainly reinforces my bias that it will be a separate association.

Again, not sure I would really read into it too much because I could make this argument...The market at the time VGF (Big Pine Key expansion) went on sale in 2022 was red hot across the board for all DVC resorts. Everything peaked leading up to VGF price announcement thinking it was going to go for well over $200per point, and then everything settled back down upon the pricing announcement and the cooling of the economy. Poly's bell-curve was really no different from VGF's in 2020-2022 (peaking at $179), despite having no expansion to piggyback off of. Did that really make any impact on Disney's ability to sell VGF new at $207 before any discounts? Probably not since the price of resale vs direct was so close and the previous price for a "sold out" VGF direct was $250 before BPK. If anything, it may have made selling VGF easier early on! I would assume Poly's resale price would rise rapidly as well should it be part of the same association - thus making it fairly easy for Disney to make the argument of buying direct.

At the end of the day, people are more reluctant to buy Riviera due to the restrictions compared to VGF. They built this beautiful, brand new Riviera tower near Epcot, and yet they are still having trouble selling it out. Is that something Disney really wants to deal with long-term with all their future Florida resorts or would they prefer to sell them out in 2-3 years? I genuinely don't know the answer to that question, and I'm not sure Disney does either.

 

[Sandisw]

Again, not sure I would really read into it too much because I could make this argument...The market at the time VGF (Big Pine Key expansion) went on sale in 2022 was red hot across the board for all DVC resorts. Everything peaked leading up to VGF price announcement thinking it was going to go for well over $200per point, and then everything settled back down upon the pricing announcement and the cooling of the economy. Poly's bell-curve was really no different from VGF's in 2020-2022 (peaking at $179), despite having no expansion to piggyback off of. Did that really make any impact on Disney's ability to sell VGF new at $207 before any discounts? Probably not since the price of resale vs direct was so close and the previous price for a "sold out" VGF direct was $250 before BPK. If anything, it may have made selling VGF easier early on! I would assume Poly's resale price would rise rapidly as well should it be part of the same association - thus making it fairly easy for Disney to make the argument of buying direct.

At the end of the day, people are more reluctant to buy Riviera due to the restrictions compared to VGF. They built this beautiful, brand new Riviera tower near Epcot, and yet they are still having trouble selling it out. Is that something Disney really wants to deal with long-term with all their future Florida resorts or would they prefer to sell them out in 2-3 years? I genuinely don't know the answer to that question, and I'm not sure Disney does either.

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There is no evidence to support that people are more reluctant to buy RIV direct than VGF simply because it has restrictions. For 4 or 5 months, in 2022, RIV outsold VGF almost 2:1 when it was priced lower. Restrictions did not cause buyers to shy away.

Sales only rebounded for VGF direct in December when DVD flipped the script and had to start selling VGF for less. That simply tells you that price is the number one factor when people are buying direct right now and DVD had to lower VGF in order to compete with RIV last year. My guess is that they want VGF to be close enough for them to call it "sold out" when the tower goes for sale.

VDH is selling fine with restrictions. While yes, it is located elsewhere and restrictions at VDH may not mean the same thing as at a WDW resort, people are still able to overlook them in favor of a resort they like.

In terms of RIV sales, 6.7 million points is a lot of points to sell...and even if they had had higher than average monthly sales, and no pandemic, it would take about 4 to 5 years to sell...add in COVID and current situation and you can see why it may be off its original target.

Last year, when VGF went up, there was a big factor in play that saw prices go the way they did and that was ROFR. When DVD was even taking SSR in the high $120's, it impacted how high buyers had to go to get one through, especially at those more popular resorts.

Now, the price of PVB has gone down but I do believe it is for the same reason that every other resort is currently down...no ROFR and more buyers than sellers, and other economic reasons. So, when Poly tower details are announced, I don't think it is going to take the same hit that VGF did because it already has due to market conditions.

But, for VGF, those prices dropped at least $20/point within weeks of VGF sales starting back up....because not only did VGF start at the same base price of $207, the incentives were strong.

In the end, they are not going to have trouble selling resorts with restrictions if they stay on that path. And, if Poly tower follows suit in terms of popularity with cash guests (like RIV and AUL do, which is why I don't believe they care how long it takes to sell), they won't care if it takes longer to have the points in stock.

 

[Cybertruck]

I also think that RIV will hold above the $100 mark and in 18 years, may very well bounce higher when it becomes the least expensive Epcot area resort option.

I despise the thought but agree it is a likely scenario. I am concerned future point charts will make multiple trips a year a real challenge (yes, I know a real first world problem of someone who is 18 months away from retirement).

 

[EYL]

I also think that RIV will hold above the $100 mark and in 18 years, may very well bounce higher when it becomes the least expensive Epcot area resort option.

The future still needs to be seen, but once RIV sells out, DVC should raise the direct price. This will likely drive up the resale value. BCV direct is now $275, BWV is $240... In 10 years, RIV may have a better value, even if it's restricted.

I might be biased since I own there, but it's what I think of. We don't need to add on now, but in 5 years...maybe. By that time, we may need to pay an arm and a leg for RIV direct or go resale.

 

[Sandisw]

The future still needs to be seen, but once RIV sells out, DVC should raise the direct price. This will likely drive up the resale value. BCV direct is now $275, BWV is $240... In 10 years, RIV may have a better value, even if it's restricted.

I might be biased since I own there, but it's what I think of. We don't need to add on now, but in 5 years...maybe. By that time, we may need to pay an arm and a leg for RIV direct or go resale.

I am biased too, but to be honest, I was a big naysayer when it was announced, even saying I would not even buy it for $50/pt resale! I ended up buying one for $152.

It’s a very popular resort and people love it, The other thing that may keep it a bit higher is supply…if too many RIV owners are worried of having to sell way low, they may choose to just keep it, and rent for a few years to offset that loss. I know my RIV contracts will be the last to go.

Fortunately it’s my favorite!

 

[Nursemanit]

As much as my heart loves the quirky theming of the classic Disney resorts like Poly / VGF /BWV. The size and convenience of a tower with food / easy transportation and less walking will always be a draw. I see RIV resale as holding better than many experts predicted.

I do have a fear that Poly tower may be a net negative for the resort as a whole unless they get creative with transportation and pools.

 

[DVCsloth]

As much as my heart loves the quirky theming of the classic Disney resorts like Poly / VGF /BWV. The size and convenience of a tower with food / easy transportation and less walking will always be a draw. I see RIV resale as holding better than many experts predicted.

I do have a fear that Poly tower may be a net negative for the resort as a whole unless they get creative with transportation and pools.

Pretty sure they will need to make some changes to the transportation. The busses will most likely not be shared with GF anymore would be my guess. The monorail will be more of an issue for GF than it will be for Poly I would think.

 

[hockeydad21]

There is absolutely no evidence to support that people are more reluctant to buy RIV direct than VGF due to restrictions. For 4 or 5 months, in 2022, RIV outsold VGF almost 2:1 when it was priced lower. Restrictions did not cause buyers to shy away.

Sales only rebounded for VGF direct in December when DVD flipped the script and had to start selling VGF for less. That simply tells you that price is the number one factor when people are buying direct right now and DVD had to lower VGF in order to compete with RIV last year. My guess is that they want VGF to be close enough for them to call it "sold out" when the tower goes for sale.

No evidence? Riviera has been on sale since spring 2019 and has only sold 3,701,546 points, or 54.9%, of the resort’s 6,739,966 points. Meanwhile VGF’s Big Pine Key has been on sale since spring 2022 and has sold 1,144,333 of the 1,779,822 points (64.3%).

That’s pretty damming evidence. Riviera had a 3 year head start, and is 10% behind. And even if you factor in 1 or 2 years lost due to Covid, then you should still expect to see at least some sort of lead by Riviera for having a “1 year head start”, but that’s just not the case.

 

[Genie+]

I would assume Poly's resale price would rise rapidly as well should it be part of the same association - thus making it fairly easy for Disney to make the argument of buying direct.

Good point. I could see that happening. But is it enough… when they’re likely to have more long term advantages by keeping restrictions? I think they hope to stay on course yet don’t want to lock themselves in.

At the end of the day, people are more reluctant to buy Riviera due to the restrictions compared to VGF. They built this beautiful, brand new Riviera tower near Epcot, and yet they are still having trouble selling it out. Is that something Disney really wants to deal with long-term with all their future Florida resorts or would they prefer to sell them out in 2-3 years? I genuinely don't know the answer to that question, and I'm not sure Disney does either.

As we get closer to 2030 and if RIV, VDH, CFW and PV2 all have restrictions, it could matter less when it’s the norm. Once past 2030 it could be ancient history as the 2042 countdowns start. And even more new resorts by then. If they can hold out by keeping restrictions, it will really change resale vs direct.

 

[Genie+]

No evidence? Riviera has been on sale since spring 2019 and has only sold 3,701,546 points, or 54.9%, of the resort’s 6,739,966 points. Meanwhile VGF’s Big Pine Key has been on sale since spring 2022 and has sold 1,144,333 of the 1,779,822 points (64.3%).

That’s pretty damming evidence. Riviera had a 3 year head start, and is 10% behind. And even if you factor in 1 or 2 years lost due to Covid, then you should still expect to see at least some sort of lead by Riviera for having a “1 year head start”, but that’s just not the case.

I’m one that’s wary of RIV but it continues to surprise me. RIV kept pace selling with VGF2, which opened with pent demand. It’s still selling steady.

 

[KimMcGowan]

No evidence? Riviera has been on sale since spring 2019 and has only sold 3,701,546 points, or 54.9%, of the resort’s 6,739,966 points. Meanwhile VGF’s Big Pine Key has been on sale since spring 2022 and has sold 1,144,333 of the 1,779,822 points (64.3%).

That’s pretty damming evidence. Riviera had a 3 year head start, and is 10% behind. And even if you factor in 1 or 2 years lost due to Covid, then you should still expect to see at least some sort of lead by Riviera for having a “1 year head start”, but that’s just not the case.

I think you point is right on the money. I actually loved our stay at Riviera- so I am not biased against the resort. Because there is no official announcement people will cling to the “restrictions “ didn’t hurt sales at all argument. However, I think it is reasonable to say that there has been some correlation. I do think the pandemic screwed up the numbers and it would have been nice to see what happened if the shutdown hadn’t happened. However, I believe restrictions have affected sales, even if only slightly.

 

[Sandisw]

No evidence? Riviera has been on sale since spring 2019 and has only sold 3,701,546 points, or 54.9%, of the resort’s 6,739,966 points. Meanwhile VGF’s Big Pine Key has been on sale since spring 2022 and has sold 1,144,333 of the 1,779,822 points (64.3%).

That’s pretty damming evidence. Riviera had a 3 year head start, and is 10% behind. And even if you factor in 1 or 2 years lost due to Covid, then you should still expect to see at least some sort of lead by Riviera for having a “1 year head start”, but that’s just not the case.

If restrictions is the sole reason, why did it outperform VGF than for those 4 months? Obviously, VGF could not compete until it was less expensive, outside of the initial surge. And let’s not pretend that VGF is selling well….by all previous standards. It’s also doing poorly.

You can’t look at % when one resort has to sell more than 3xs as many points. 10% of 2 million is 200,000 and 10% of 6.7 million is 670,000. So, even if RIV was selling more points every month, it’s % is going to be lower. RIV would have to sell almost 500k more points than VGF just to sell the same % of its total.

Of course VGF has sold a higher % of its total.

If VGF was a more popular choice, DVD would not have had to lower the price. To be clear, I am not saying that RIV is setting records, it is not…but, it’s sales prior to the pandemic were really strong and its not too far off of VGF sales right now.

Basically, if you take one year away from RIV for the pandemic and it’s impact, both resorts have about a 1 million a year average…

So no, the restrictions alone have not had a major impact on sales. You simply can’t ignore that for 4 of the 10 months VGF was for sale in of 2022, RIV sold more …sometimes twice as much…which means restrcitons didn’t stifle sales.

 

[hockeydad21]

If restrictions is the sole reason, why did it outperform VGF than for those 4 months? Obviously, VGF could not compete until it was less expensive, outside of the initial surge. And let’s not pretend that VGF is selling well….by all previous standards. It’s doing poorly.

You can’t look at % when one resort has to sell more than 3xs as many points because 10% of 2 million is 200,000 and 10% of 6.7 million is 670,000. So, even if RIV was selling more points every month, it’s % is going to be lower.

If VGF was a more popular choice, DVD would not have had to lower the price. To be clear, I am not saying that RIV is setting records, it is not…but, it’s sales prior to the pandemic were really strong and its not too far off of VGF sales right now.

Basically, if you take one year away from RIV for the pandemic and it’s impact, and say it’s equal all things being equal, both resorts have about a 1 million a year average…

So no, the restrictions alone have not had a major impact on sales. You simply can’t ignore that for 4 of the 10 months VGF was for sale in of 2022, RIV sold better than VGF…sometimes twice as much…and restrictions existed.

If you don’t want to use % then let’s go by points sold per year. I’ll let you do the math. You’ll find Riviera is trailing behind despite being the better resort (in my opinion). And I don’t own either riv or vgf, so I have no dog in this fight. With that being said, I would love to own at riv some day if they drop the restrictions. No interest in owning VGF.

Disney had to lower the price of VGF because they most likely don’t want to be selling 2 monorail resorts at once come summer 2024.

At the end of the day, it’s clear you’re taking this argument to the grave, so no point in us beating a dead horse.

 

[emchen]

I might be biased since I own there, but it's what I think of.

I am biased too, but to be honest, I was a big naysayer when it was announced, even saying I would not even buy it for $50/pt resale! I ended up buying one for $152.

It’s a very popular resort and people love it, The other thing that may keep it a bit higher is supply…if too many RIV owners are worried of having to sell way low, they may choose to just keep it, and rent for a few years to offset that loss. I know my RIV contracts will be the last to go.

Fortunately it’s my favorite!

The size and convenience of a tower with food / easy transportation and less walking will always be a draw. I see RIV resale as holding better than many experts predicted.

I’m one that’s wary of RIV but it continues to surprise me.

I actually loved our stay at Riviera

Wait a sec...when did this thread turn into the Riviera Owner and Lover's Thread?? [green fella is Riviera]

 

[Sandisw]

If you don’t want to use % then let’s go by points sold per year. I’ll let you do the math. You’ll find Riviera is trailing behind despite being the better resort (in my opinion). And I don’t own either riv or vgf, so I have no dog in this fight. With that being said, I would love to own at riv some day if they drop the restrictions. No interest in owning VGF.

Disney had to lower the price of VGF because they most likely don’t want to be selling 2 monorail resorts at once come summer 2024.

At the end of the day, it’s clear you’re taking this argument to the grave, so no point in us beating a dead horse.

The bigger point was that both VGF and RIV have had better respective sales when it was the less expensive option for new buyers and that restrictions alone are not a major detriment to direct sales…

I also believe that they had to lower VGF to get it sold before Poly tower, because it’s numbers were not good.

I think they are learning that pricing is what drives sales and that having options also helps….and why I think that they are opening both Poly tower and FW next year…and feel thst both will carry the restrictions so that everything that buyers can choose by then have the same pros and cons.

 

[Genie+]

Between March 1, 2022 and June 30, 2023
VGF sold 1,144,333 points
RIV sold 990,035 points

That’s the time since VGF2 sales went live up until the end of last month.

Numbers taken from DVCnews.com

Disney’s Riviera Resort — In March 2022, 70,789 points were sold for Riviera.
Disney has sold 2,782,300 points.

Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort — In June 2023, 75,687 points were sold for Grand Floridian,
Disney has sold 1,144,333
Disney’s Riviera Resort — In June, Riviera sold 40,025 points,
Disney has now sold 3,701,546 Riviera points,