Poly DVC expansion coming 2024!

[The Jackal]

How fast is it selling? The only hard data I'm aware of is that they sold 500 contracts for at least 62k points in about 30 hours...at prices lower than most people predicted and with the promise of free baggage for those who acted quickly.

I have no direct info, but someone else posted they had talked to their guide and the pace has slowed from the first day, but it is still selling very well. It was stated that if the pace continues, which it most likely would not. It would sell out in about 70 days. It seems that the association is interested in buying but will the general public? We won’t know for a while. If they release more rooms in a few weeks you’ll know that the pace has kept up.

 

[tjkraz]

Which returns to the idea that DVC provides varied options for different tastes. I tend to think MK resorts will do better on the resale market due to the presence of the park.

If you're saying that Polynesian has more fans than Riviera, then I agree with that.

However, if the premise is that points which only provide access to one destination (Riviera) are worth less than points which provide access to 14 resorts, the same will be true of Poly2. If Poly2 is a second association with resale restrictions, the resale value will suffer. There's simply no doubt. Fewer buyers will want the 1-destination property than points which can access a dozen locations.

Will Poly2 be worth more than Riviera? Maybe. It will also cost more to acquire than Riviera, point charts will be higher and number of years on the contract are TBD.

Apples to apples, resale restrictions shouldn't be viewed any different from one resort to another. They still limit use of the points, and thus will suppress value. What differs is whether buyers have enough affection for a specific location to ignore the restrictions. The heart wants what the heart wants. But you're still accepting the likelihood that resale value will be diminished via the contract terms. Objectively, it doesn't make Poly2 a better or safer purchase than Riviera, not when other unrestricted alternatives exist.

 

[tjkraz]

I have no direct info, but someone else posted they had talked to their guide and the pace has slowed from the first day, but it is still selling very well. It was stated that if the pace continues, which it most likely would not. It would sell out in about 70 days. It seems that the association is interested in buying but will the general public? We won’t know for a while. If they release more rooms in a few weeks you’ll know that the pace has kept up.

If it sells out in 70 days, Bill Diercksen will be filing for unemployment for costing his employer millions of dollars.

It won't sell out in 70 days, or anything close to that. And within a few weeks we'll have access to real sales numbers, and can spend the next few months analyzing the data and comparing resorts.

 

[Nabas]

If it sells out in 70 days, Bill Diercksen will be filing for unemployment for costing his employer millions of dollars.

It won't sell out in 70 days, or anything close to that. And within a few weeks we'll have access to real sales numbers, and can spend the next few months analyzing the data and comparing resorts.

VGF1 sold 226,439 points in its first full months, and then never sold more than 140,000 after that.

Something to keep in mind when VGF2's first month of sales are published.

 

[tjkraz]

VGF1 sold 226,439 points in its first full months, and then never sold more than 140,000 after that.

Something to keep in mind when VGF2's first month of sales is published.

And after recording 226,439 points sold in its first full month (July 2013), numbers in the succeeding months dropped to 130k in August, 79k in September, 75k, 75k, 68k, etc.

The next highest full month for VGF1 appears to be July 2014 when they sold 137,774. That's an average of about 4400 points per calendar day.

In order for VGF2 to sell out in 70 days, it would have to average 26,000 points per day. I mean...

There surely has been some pent up demand for VGF. For informed owners, riviera resale restrictions may play a role. But greater factors are pricing and availability. Riviera has been readily available for 3 years running. VGF, not so much. The launch price was more than $50 under DVC's latest direct price and virtually even with resale. A lot of people jumped on the offer immediately. But that well will dry up.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Right, but this depends on how Disney wants to market the resort. It's (mostly) about generating sales, with existing Poly owners not really part of the equation. It's (mostly) about what potential new owners will want.

What will be more attractive to new buyers? Will new owners want the opportunity to book an over-the-water bungalow at 11 months?

If Disney thinks this will help sell the new resort, then it makes sense to make this new resort part of PVB (Polynesian Villas & Bungalows).

I don't think new owners will care at all about the monstrous point bungalows. They can get them at seven months anyway. But I do think that a shiny new tower with a cool deck and pool and beach will be a far more attractive option than resale at Poly1. That will exert downward pressure on Poly1 resale contracts, and if I owned there I'd be justifiably ticked off.

 

[Nabas]

I don't think new owners will care at all about the monstrous point bungalows. They can get them at seven months anyway. But I do think that a shiny new tower with a cool deck and pool and beach will be a far more attractive option than resale at Poly1. That will exert downward pressure on Poly1 resale contracts, and if I owned there I'd be justifiably ticked off.

I understand where you are coming from but look at how Disney is marketing VGF2.

VGF2 is just Studios but Disney also is advertising VGF1’s 2 and 3 bedroom villas as part of VGF2.

The new Poly building almost certainly will have Grand Villas, and some who buy there will want to stay in those. For reference, a lake view Grand Floridian Grand Villa costs 187 points per night for Spring.

The point is, there will be some who buy at the new Poly DVC who will want a Grand Villa. I’m sure some of those will also like to try a bungalow.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I understand where you are coming from but look at how Disney is marketing VGF2.

VGF2 is just Studios but Disney also is advertising VGF1’s 2 and 3 bedroom villas as part of VGF2.

The new Poly building almost certainly will have Grand Villas, and some who buy there will want to stay in those. For reference, a lake view Grand Floridian Grand Villa costs 187 points per night for Spring.

The point is, there will be some who buy at the new Poly DVC who will want a Grand Villa. I’m sure some of those will also like to try a bungalow.

I don’t understand your point. I own VGF1 and just bought VGF2. We love the one bedrooms but I think the high point chart will sustain availability in spite of all the new buyers.

Some buyers will want a grand villa at Poly2, but the bungalows won’t be an issue because they’ll be in the Poly1 association. Why does this even matter? Just the presence of a potentially superior facility in Poly2 will not help resales at Poly1.

 

[EYL]

So, I was thinking about this... There were some posts talking about the possibility for DVC to redistribute Bungalow points if PVB1 and PVB2 were the same association. At the time of sale, can they redistribute the bungalow points so that bungalows decrease and it goes over to PVB2's 1BRs and 2BRs since they will be "selling the points twice"?

I mean PVB1 has about 4,000,000 points SOLD, and say that PVB2 has 3,000,000 points originally TO BE SOLD. Can they immediately redistribute the points so that PVB1 now has 3,750,000 points and PVB2 has 3,250,000 points to sell? Those 250,000 points would be sold twice - once in the original PVB1 offering and the second time in the PVB2 offering, no? To me, the only time that it can be legitimately done is after PVB2 is sold out...

 

[Nabas]

I don’t understand your point. I own VGF1 and just bought VGF2. We love the one bedrooms but I think the high point chart will sustain availability in spite of all the new buyers.

Some buyers will want a grand villa at Poly2, but the bungalows won’t be an issue because they’ll be in the Poly1 association. Why does this even matter? Just the presence of a potentially superior facility in Poly2 will not help resales at Poly1.

This has nothing to do with PVB1 resales.

It matters because if Disney thinks the new Poly DVC (a.k.a. PVB2) will sell better because of the bungalows, then Disney will make PVB2 part of the same association as PVB1.

Disney is not out to screw resale buyers because it makes Disney executives feel good. Disney does what it does because it believes it will boost direct DVC sales.

So the question is: does corporate Disney think including the PVB1 bungalows in PVB2 advertisement will help sell PVB2? If Disney does, then Disney probably will include PVB1 and PVB2 in the same association.

It's about positioning your product in the marketplace. It's about increasing PVB2 sales, with other considerations coming second.

 

[SLThomas318]

Someone posted in another poly thread that they are at Moonlight Magic and asked a sales manager if it was going to be a new association… sales manager said no, it would be like VGF… one association

 

[Sandisw]

So, I was thinking about this... There were some posts talking about the possibility for DVC to redistribute Bungalow points if PVB1 and PVB2 were the same association. At the time of sale, can they redistribute the bungalow points so that bungalows decrease and it goes over to PVB2's 1BRs and 2BRs since they will be "selling the points twice"?

I mean PVB1 has about 4,000,000 points SOLD, and say that PVB2 has 3,000,000 points originally TO BE SOLD. Can they immediately redistribute the points so that PVB1 now has 3,750,000 points and PVB2 has 3,250,000 points to sell? Those 250,000 points would be sold twice - once in the original PVB1 offering and the second time in the PVB2 offering, no? To me, the only time that it can be legitimately done is after PVB2 is sold out...

The bungalows are part of The current condo association. They can not be moved to the new association because they have already been sold.

The question is whether or not they can redistribute the points from those to the new rooms if it’s all the same association when it comes time to set the charts.

Some don’t think they should be able to legally even though they did with the treehouses at SSR.

But, they can not sell points again because someone already owns it.

All they can potentially do..if they believe they can redistribute is make the point charts for the new rooms lower to start, sell based on that abs then make them more later on.

IMO, I just don’t think that will happen or make sense. The only plus for the bungalows is to add the new tower to the same association so you increase the number of owners who can book them at 11 months.

 

[Sandisw]

Someone posted in another poly thread that they are at Moonlight Magic and asked a sales manager if it was going to be a new association… sales manager said no, it would be like VGF… one association

Wow. Let’s hope we get more official confirmation of that. But if that is the case, then it will certainly be interesting if they leave RIV as a stand alone restricted resort.

 

[Paul Stupin]

This has nothing to do with PVB1 resales.

It matters because if Disney thinks the new Poly DVC (a.k.a. PVB2) will sell better because of the bungalows, then Disney will make PVB2 part of the same association as PVB1.

Disney is not out to screw resale buyers because it makes Disney executives feel good. Disney does what it does because it believes it will boost direct DVC sales.

So the question is: does corporate Disney think including the PVB1 bungalows in PVB2 advertisement will help sell PVB2? If Disney does, then Disney probably will include PVB1 and PVB2 in the same association.

It's about positioning your product in the marketplace. It's about increasing PVB2 sales, with other considerations coming second.

The bungalows are easily bookable at 7 months. The 11 month advantage is meaningless.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Wow. Let’s hope we get more official confirmation of that. But if that is the case, then it will certainly be interesting if they leave RIV as a stand alone restricted resort.

Like the guides, I would bet that the sales managers as well know about as much as we do regarding the Poly2 issues we’ve been discussing.

 

[havoc315]

While that's true, there's much higher success rate predicting that DVC will continue to operate as it has in the past, as opposed to speculating that they'll suddenly choose to do things differently this time.

Suddenly? No.
But if you predicted in 1996 that it would operate the same way in 2022, you’d be wrong. If you made that bet in 2001, 2008, 2015, 2019… you’d be wrong.
There have been lots of changes. Some big, some small.
From changes in unit types to major changes in membership benefits to changes in booking procedures to resale restrictions.

If it’s a choice between “things will be the same for the next 30 years” versus “there will be changes over the next 30 years” — the second statement is a much safer bet.

 

[havoc315]

Wow. Let’s hope we get more official confirmation of that. But if that is the case, then it will certainly be interesting if they leave RIV as a stand alone restricted resort.

I don’t think the sales managers really know all that much yet. 6 months ago, a sales rep at GFV told me the new studios would still have kitchenettes but without a sink.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think the sales managers really know all that much yet. 6 months ago, a sales rep at GFV told me the new studios would still have kitchenettes but without a sink.

Good point. Just interesting that they answered that way.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I wonder if they will have some sort of dinner show on the top floor?

 

[BamaGuy44]

If it’s a choice between “things will be the same for the next 30 years” versus “there will be changes over the next 30 years” — the second statement is a much safer bet.

Sure but if you predict they'll keep doing a specific thing the way they've done it for years, you'll be right most of the time.