Poly DVC expansion coming 2024!

[brazzledazzler]

I'll be perfectly honest here. If they put this in the same association, I probably will not buy it (I am not a current Poly owner). I would have to see the mix of room types in the new building first. But I would not be thrilled with having to compete with the millions of already existing points to grab the limited amount of 1BR/2BR/3BR in the new building.

I definitely see your point. If it’s the same association, it really lowers the value of your points if you wanted the larger rooms.

However, they’re doing the same thing (in reverse) at VGF, and it seems to be selling well as members add-on right now.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Someone posted in another poly thread that they are at Moonlight Magic and asked a sales manager if it was going to be a new association… sales manager said no, it would be like VGF… one association

We can’t assume its true, until the Old Key West bus driver says it is.

 

[Nabas]

The bungalows are easily bookable at 7 months. The 11 month advantage is meaningless.

Well informed current DVC members might know this. People who regularly visit these discussion boards might know this.

Many (the majority?) of direct DVC buyers are making their purchase while on vacation and are caught up in the excitement of the moment. (This is typical for most timeshare buyers.). They have no idea about Poly bungalow availability.

Again, this is about marketing a product to maximize sales. Actual bungalow availability at 7 months is irrelevant. Does Disney think that marketing the bungalows as part of Poly 2 will help Poly 2 sales?

 

[zavandor]

Right, but this depends on how Disney wants to market the resort. It's (mostly) about generating sales, with existing Poly owners not really part of the equation. It's (mostly) about what potential new owners will want.

There is a good probability that someone owning Poly1 will want to add-on because they grew out of studios and they want to book 1BR or 2BR. One association would allow to make this easier than selling a rebuying at the new resort. If it's two resorts, Disney might lose a lot of sales.

 

[BeachClub2014]

There is a good probability that someone owning Poly1 will want to add-on because they grew out of studios and they want to book 1BR or 2BR. One association would allow to make this easier than selling a rebuying at the new resort. If it's two resorts, Disney might lose a lot of sales.

You're likely correct in this thinking. But there are also likely many current DVC owners at other resorts that will only buy if the new Poly is a new association. Overall, those two camps are probably something close to a wash.

 

[zavandor]

DVCNews.com publishes direct sales data every month. Pre-COVID, Riviera sales were doing as well as any other recent DVC resort, suggesting the new resale restrictions were having little to no impact on direct sales. Post-COVID, Riviera sales have been weak, although until recently, WDW attendance also was down. (This is very important when considering direct sales, since most are making their direct sales purchase while visiting WDW.)

Here's a graph of the data they have published to date:

View attachment 655329

The next month's sales data should be soon.

There is another factor that has to be added. Since Riviera started sales, the percentage of points at sold out resorts sold directly by DVC has increased and in the last few years ROFR activity increased, with some resorts targeted at different times with very high buy back percentages. Are they doing this because some people are put off by the restrictions and they need unrestricted points to sell? Or is it something that would have happened anyway, since the number of old resorts is always growing? The fact they targeted SSR a few months back means there is a lot of interest in cheaper and unrestricted points. Or maybe it's just "cheaper" that people are interested in.
It's difficult to get a definitive answer how restrictions are impacting sales (and Covid hasn't made things easier). Not sure if even DVC knows for sure. It is certainly something the guides like to have to reply during the sale pitch if the topic of resale comes up. And maybe that is enough to keep them, even if they hurt sales a bit.
DLT will be the proof, they either remove them before it goes on sale or keep them forever.

 

[zavandor]

So, I was thinking about this... There were some posts talking about the possibility for DVC to redistribute Bungalow points if PVB1 and PVB2 were the same association. At the time of sale, can they redistribute the bungalow points so that bungalows decrease and it goes over to PVB2's 1BRs and 2BRs since they will be "selling the points twice"?

I mean PVB1 has about 4,000,000 points SOLD, and say that PVB2 has 3,000,000 points originally TO BE SOLD. Can they immediately redistribute the points so that PVB1 now has 3,750,000 points and PVB2 has 3,250,000 points to sell? Those 250,000 points would be sold twice - once in the original PVB1 offering and the second time in the PVB2 offering, no? To me, the only time that it can be legitimately done is after PVB2 is sold out...

If they are two associations, they won't be able to do it, for certain.
If it's one association, like Sandy said, it might be possible that they create a point chart and just before sales begin, reallocate. However many of us think they are not legally allowed to reallocate points between units.
They have done it multiple times in the past: SSR THV, view reallocations at BLT and AKV, SSR standard view created. However when they tried again in 2019 for the infamous 2020 charts, they had been questioned and threatened with legal action. They rolled back the charts and they haven't attempted it again since.
I'd say it won't happen.

 

[BeachClub2014]

It's difficult to get a definitive answer how restrictions are impacting sales (and Covid hasn't made things easier). Not sure if even DVC knows for sure.

You hit the nail on the head here. There is a myriad of factors that influence sales, both positively and negatively. To try and put a finger on any one particular factor is difficult.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

How fast is it selling? The only hard data I'm aware of is that they sold 500 contracts for at least 62k points in about 30 hours...at prices lower than most people predicted and with the promise of free baggage for those who acted quickly.

I just peeked at the Orange County site where the contracts get uploaded, they started uploading contracts from 3/4 on Wednesday and have made it through 104. It’s going to be a while until we have our arms around how many points they sold. Even when DVCNews publishes their info in early April it’s possible they won’t have all the 3/4 contracts in yet, if they’re only processing 50 a day.

 

[Sandisw]

I definitely see your point. If it’s the same association, it really lowers the value of your points if you wanted the larger rooms.

However, they’re doing the same thing (in reverse) at VGF, and it seems to be selling well as members add-on right now.

I did buy VGF even with the addition of studios but it is because of the location and if I can't get the larger rooms, I am okay with the location of BPK since this resort is the smaller part of my split stay.

I am not a fan of the location of the current Poly buildings but the new tower is my style...yup!

VGF, even with the new points remains smaller but Poly would be huge...it will be interesting to see which way they go.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I just peeked at the Orange County site where the contracts get uploaded, they started uploading contracts from 3/4 on Wednesday and have made it through 104. It’s going to be a while until we have our arms around how many points they sold. Even when DVCNews publishes their info in early April it’s possible they won’t have all the 3/4 contracts in yet, if they’re only processing 50 a day.

Also, don't they only show up after people close? Some making delayed payment plans would not show up for a month or two

 

[hhisc16]

Also, don't they only show up after people close? Some making delayed payment plans would not show up for a month or two

I bought my small direct add on in December and the closing is not until this month due to 90 day closing.
I checked the deeds and it has not closed yet, even though Disney has my money and I have my points.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Also, don't they only show up after people close? Some making delayed payment plans would not show up for a month or two

Fair enough!

 

[Sandisw]

Also, don't they only show up after people close? Some making delayed payment plans would not show up for a month or two

Correct. I don't make final payment until June 1st, so you won't see my sale until then.

 

[tjkraz]

I just peeked at the Orange County site where the contracts get uploaded, they started uploading contracts from 3/4 on Wednesday and have made it through 104. It’s going to be a while until we have our arms around how many points they sold. Even when DVCNews publishes their info in early April it’s possible they won’t have all the 3/4 contracts in yet, if they’re only processing 50 a day.

There was undoubtedly a large surge at the start of sales and may be some lesser surge when sales open to the public. Others already mentioned the delayed closings. It will probably take 3-4 months before we get some idea of how it's selling on a consistent basis.

 

[tjkraz]

So, I was thinking about this... There were some posts talking about the possibility for DVC to redistribute Bungalow points if PVB1 and PVB2 were the same association. At the time of sale, can they redistribute the bungalow points so that bungalows decrease and it goes over to PVB2's 1BRs and 2BRs since they will be "selling the points twice"?

I mean PVB1 has about 4,000,000 points SOLD, and say that PVB2 has 3,000,000 points originally TO BE SOLD. Can they immediately redistribute the points so that PVB1 now has 3,750,000 points and PVB2 has 3,250,000 points to sell? Those 250,000 points would be sold twice - once in the original PVB1 offering and the second time in the PVB2 offering, no? To me, the only time that it can be legitimately done is after PVB2 is sold out...

To piggyback your numbers, the idea would be that if 250,000 points are shifted out of PVB1, it would come out of PVB2. Instead of having 3,000,000 to sell in PVB2, it would be reduced to 2,750,000.

Bear in mind this only works if the entire resort is one association. When referring to PVB1, it's actually the original studios + bungalows while PVB2 is the new tower.

On the surface, it seems unlikely that DVD would sacrifice millions of dollars in revenue to "fix" the bungalows. But every decision they make regarding the points charts has some cost attached to it. If DVC had increased the cost of 202 VGF Resort Studios by just 1 point per night, it would have given them 73,000 additional points to sell, valued at more than $14 million.

Hypothetically, decreasing the cost of all 20 bungalows by a flat 15 points per night would cost DVD about 110,000 points. It gives them 110k fewer points to sell. Do the benefits (higher utilization of bungalows) justify the move? I dunno. The program has survived 6 years with things as-is.

But here's something to watch out for. *IF* this is one condo association and there are no immediate changes to bungalow costs when the tower points are revealed, it seems inevitable that changes will follow down the road. Unless the new influx of owners causes demand for bungalows to rise, occupancy numbers are likely to suggest adjustments after a few years. At that point, the only way to lower bungalow costs will be to increase costs of the Studio, 1B and 2B rooms. So whatever point charts they publish when the tower debuts may be short lived. Buyers would be wise to budget for a modest increase within a few years.

 

[DduzDis]

So whatever point charts they publish when the tower debuts may be short lived. Buyers would be wise to budget for a modest increase within a few years.

Anyone purchasing for the long term should absolutely do that anyway. I think I can remember a Spring Break week in a BLT LV 1BR several years ago costing 271 points for the week now with season changes the same week costs 306 (I think). I am going from memory so take that with a grain of salt.

 

[nlenguyen]

Would the 3BD be more than the bunglaow? I think CCV 3BD is more than the cabin.

 

[zavandor]

But here's something to watch out for. *IF* this is one condo association and there are no immediate changes to bungalow costs when the tower points are revealed, it seems inevitable that changes will follow down the road. Unless the new influx of owners causes demand for bungalows to rise, occupancy numbers are likely to suggest adjustments after a few years. At that point, the only way to lower bungalow costs will be to increase costs of the Studio, 1B and 2B rooms. So whatever point charts they publish when the tower debuts may be short lived. Buyers would be wise to budget for a modest increase within a few years.

DVCMC have already acknowledged that demand of the bungalows is so much lower than studios that a reallocation would be needed. The original 2020 charts had a reallocation from bungalows to studios. That has been rolled back, they never gave a reason more than "because we didn't communicate it well so two dozen people complained", but 3 more point charts have been published and no reallocation has happened.
I know we disagree about the possibility for DVCMC to reallocate across units, but how could they justify a reallocation in 5 years time if they haven't done it in the last 3 after admitting the problem?

 

[DisneyDar]

More hotel rooms equal more crowded parks. I hope none of you that want to buy in complain about that.