Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[lockedoutlogic]

Although not a construction permit, the application for this permit does have to include all proposed structures and impervious areas (i.e. those areas that are not natural ground and prevent water from being absorbed into the ground) in order to demonstrate that the stormwater calculations and proposed pond sites adequately meet the requirements for treatment and storage. That means that the plan would have to show the foundation for any bridge, any paved paths, sidewalks, roads, buildings, parking lots, pools, or other improvements, if they are planned as part of the project. It would also have to show any alterations to the existing ponds (which it does) or canals, which are part of the system. This is not to say that there will not be a "Phase II" part of the project, but it is pretty standard for Disney and RCID to have these projects as a single entity, which is put out to bid by a contractor to handle the job in its entirety, rather than piece-mealing a project.

So what you're giving is a scientific explanation (thank you) to why this app shows ZERO intention to build a connector to anything...even with that "deluxe location"

Now back to regular programming

 

[skier_pete]

oh ok, thanks for that - someone else mentioned a minimum buy in was $25k (I don't own DVC) ... so maybe even like $8-10k then

Slightly off topic - but a minimum buy-in for a new member is 50 points. At $176 a point (current costs), that's $8,800. Resale, a similar contract can be had for around $5,000 with closing costs. Admittedly that gives you about 2-3 nights a year, but it's still feasible. In a fairly low point resort as this might be - 50 points would probably get you 1 week every other year. I am not sure how many new contracts they sell that are that small.

A quick check - the average Poly contract sold direct in December was 144 points - that's $24,700 at $172 a point - so yeah $25,000 is the "average" buyer. (Understanding that this is the mean and the median contract is probably slightly lower - between 100 and 125 points....i.e. more low point contracts are sold than high point contract, but ONE 300 point contract offsets FOUR 100 point contracts to bring the average to 140 points.)

 

[Madonna3]

Slightly off topic - but a minimum buy-in for a new member is 50 points. At $176 a point (current costs), that's $8,800. Resale, a similar contract can be had for around $5,000 with closing costs. Admittedly that gives you about 2-3 nights a year, but it's still feasible. In a fairly low point resort as this might be - 50 points would probably get you 1 week every other year. I am not sure how many new contracts they sell that are that small.

A quick check - the average Poly contract sold direct in December was 144 points - that's $24,700 at $172 a point - so yeah $25,000 is the "average" buyer. (Understanding that this is the mean and the median contract is probably slightly lower - between 100 and 125 points....i.e. more low point contracts are sold than high point contract, but ONE 300 point contract offsets FOUR 100 point contracts to bring the average to 140 points.)

I am not disagreeing with you about the "average" buyer, but I think we've all agreed they're not going to be marketing this to the average buyer, but rather the less than average buyer. BUT, if you could get into Poly for a 100 point contract for $16k or the CBR with a 200 point contract for 16k... which are you going to choose?

 

[skier_pete]

So what you're giving is a scientific explanation (thank you) to why this app shows ZERO intention to build a connector to anything...even with that "deluxe location"

Now back to regular programming

Hey, I'm on board now that it isn't happening - I've only been arguing that they COULD do it, not that they are going to.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I am not disagreeing with you about the "average" buyer, but I think we've all agreed they're not going to be marketing this to the average buyer, but rather the less than average buyer. BUT, if you could get into Poly for a 100 point contract for $16k or the CBR with a 200 point contract for 16k... which are you going to choose?

Fully agree ... just thought to myself it would be funny if they literally market it as "are you less than average? well, we have the plan for you!"

 

[skier_pete]

I am not disagreeing with you about the "average" buyer, but I think we've all agreed they're not going to be marketing this to the average buyer, but rather the less than average buyer. BUT, if you could get into Poly for a 100 point contract for $16k or the CBR with a 200 point contract for 16k... which are you going to choose?

This so is NOT going to happen. They are not lowering their price point to $80 a point. Simply no way. It would devalue ALL their properties. If you can buy into DVC direct at $80 a point with all the perks, everyone would be lining up.

No the price will be the same as current....unless you are suggesting they are creating a brand new DVC block - a DVC "Class 2" where you can't trade into the other DVC units.

Again - we are chasing our tails here...

DVC at CBR can't sell for the same prices as the Poly...
...but DVC won't want to lower prices.....
...so DVC will put in better anemities / park access to "sell up"....
....but they don't seem to be able to do that either...
....so DVC at CBR can't sell for the same prices...
...but Disney won't want to lower prices....

on and on...

 

[Madonna3]

This so is NOT going to happen. They are not lowering their price point to $80 a point. Simply no way. It would devalue ALL their properties. If you can buy into DVC direct at $80 a point with all the perks, everyone would be lining up.

No the price will be the same as current....unless you are suggesting they are creating a brand new DVC block - a DVC "Class 2" where you can't trade into the other DVC units.

Again - we are chasing our tails here...

DVC at CBR can't sell for the same prices as the Poly...
...but DVC won't want to lower prices.....
...so DVC will put in better anemities / park access to "sell up"....
....but they don't seem to be able to do that either...
....so DVC at CBR can't sell for the same prices...
...but Disney won't want to lower prices....

on and on...

I'm not sure where you're going with this. I never suggested DVC would lower its prices.

 

[skier_pete]

I'm not sure where you're going with this. I never suggested DVC would lower its prices.

You just said "or CBR with a 200 point contract for $16k". I assumed you were implying that was the price point you thought it would sell for.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Someone clarify this for me: when did the minimum contract become 50 points?

That used to be add on. Minimum initial was 140 or 150 in my day...

 

[Madonna3]

You just said "or CBR with a 200 point contract for $16k". I assumed you were implying that was the price point you thought it would sell for.

Well I guess you could indirectly infer that. What I was trying to say is if you have $16k to spend, are you buying 100 points at Poly or 100 at CBR? So basically, if 100 points gets you 4 days at Poly, but 100 points would get you a week a CBR, are you buying Poly or CBR?

 

[Madonna3]

Someone clarify this for me: when did the minimum contract become 50 points?

That used to be add on. Minimum initial was 140 or 150 in my day...

I think I remember when buying at VGF we could do 50.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think I remember when buying at VGF we could do 50.

Unless they lied to us...in 2006 the minimum initial buyin was 140 points and it moved to 150...and the average contract was 220 points.

That is an indictment of them overpricing the product...which I think is pretty obvious by those numbers.

 

[skier_pete]

Well I guess you could indirectly infer that. What I was trying to say is if you have $16k to spend, are you buying 100 points at Poly or 100 at CBR?


That's a big "it depends". I bought 160 points resale at AKV for around $12,000. I would rather have 160 points at AKV than 75 points at the Poly.

So basically, if 100 points gets you 4 days at Poly, but 100 points would get you a week a CBR, are you buying Poly or CBR?

See, in that scenario - you probably would get some people buying CBR, which is the case that this is the most workable scenario - that the point totals at CBR (should we call it the CBT? Caribbean Beach Tower?) would HAVE to be lower than the Poly. But can they be low enough to sell.

It comes back around to...you were will to spend $16,000 for the Poly DVC even though it might only pay for 4 nights, will someone be willing to spend $16,000 up front for a week at the CBT (that's 14 points a night average - which seems probably on the very low end of what Disney would be willing to go). I myself wouldn't be - but I can still pay $12,000 for 10 days at AKV.

As someone knowledgeable about resale - I certainly wouldn't buy CBT at $170 per point. With no park access available, the resale on CBT will drop almost instantly to the $100 per point range or even less. Resale appeal will be on par with SSR and AKV. If I can wait a 3 years and buy at $80 per point - then maybe I think about it.

 

[Madonna3]

That's a big "it depends". I bought 160 points resale at AKV for around $12,000. I would rather have 160 points at AKV than 75 points at the Poly.

But how would the appeal change for those buying CBT resale after Disney strips the resale benefits? Sure, you got your points for less than I did, but you've become very limited as to what you can do with them. So, what incentive does the new buyer have if they want to sell?

I'm on the edge of my seat to see where they go with this. I remain optimistic, but I have a feeling disappointment is on the horizon.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I still don't see how this flies as a dvc...to be honest.

Perhaps if they didn't still have poly (another 2 years of that unless they start slashing) and the whole wilderness lodge that's gonna take 5...

 

[skier_pete]

I still don't see how this flies as a dvc...to be honest.

Perhaps if they didn't still have poly (another 2 years of that unless they start slashing) and the whole wilderness lodge that's gonna take 5...

At current sales rate (average of Oct-Dec 2015) Poly is sold out by January 2018. That's one year - not 2. Possibly it slows down towards the end when WL 2.0 goes on sale, but realistically it won't take 2 years - I think we will be seeing it 90% sold by New Years next year.

I think Wilderness Lodge sales will depend on a few things - if they don't overprice the cabins as badly as they did the Poly Bungalows, and depends also on how many rooms they converted. The cabins are bigger than the Poly ones, but I can't see them demand the $1500-2000 a night rates, less maybe the 4 with "Fireworks view". If they make those cabins more on par with a typical 3-bedroom point rate (100-120 points per night) I think they'll actually be pretty popular.

Where I agree with you is that DVC at CBT seems like a bad idea. But I'm still not buying it as hotel rooms until I see something that points that way. There has to be some other DVC resort start construction this year - because they need to start on the NEXT DVC this year to be ready to go on sale in 2019.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Didnt you say poly was 58% sold in 24 or 28 months?

That doesn't imply January 2018 sellout.

Even still...I think if they move the rest of poly and wilderness fast the next we see is a grand Floridian convert.

I would have said poly tower...but I don't think it has sold gangbusters and they have to do all that transportation work first to free up the land.

 

[skier_pete]

Didnt you say poly was 58% sold in 24 or 28 months?

That doesn't imply January 2018 sellout.

Even still...I think if they move the rest of poly and wilderness fast the next we see is a grand Floridian convert.

I would have said poly tower...but I don't think it has sold gangbusters and they have to do all that transportation work first to free up the land.

I reconfirmed the numbers - 58% sold as of December 2016, but these numbers are all based on registered deeds in the county, which lag about 2 months behind actual sales. The first registered deeds were in April 2015, so it's really 58% sold in 21 months (april 2015 to December 2016) - which projects to 36 months total to sell out which is February 2018.

A second check 314,000 points of registered deeds in 3 months Oct-Dec. There are 1.6 million points left to sell according to the article, so at 105,000 points per month, that's 15 more months, which puts all the deeds registered sold by March 2018, which means selling out in January, 2018. So two separate calculations show roughly the same thing. As I said, it certainly could slow when Wilderness Lodge comes up later this year, but I think between 12 and 18 months from now is a reasonable estimate to be 100% sold.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I can't find any details on wilderness lodge except their peyote bungalows are going to be 1800 sf as opposed to 1100 at the poly...thats gonna be "modern" grand villa point charts and therefore will take along time to sell...

Who buys 1200 point contracts for "a week" in those?

Second...I can't find the slightest mention of the south/east wing gut...but the lodge had 728 rooms...which means they're knocking out at least 300-350 on the gut.

That's a lot of points too.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I reconfirmed the numbers - 58% sold as of December 2016, but these numbers are all based on registered deeds in the county, which lag about 2 months behind actual sales. The first registered deeds were in April 2015, so it's really 58% sold in 21 months (april 2015 to December 2016) - which projects to 36 months total to sell out which is February 2018.

A second check 314,000 points of registered deeds in 3 months Oct-Dec. There are 1.6 million points left to sell according to the article, so at 105,000 points per month, that's 15 more months, which puts all the deeds registered sold by March 2018, which means selling out in January, 2018. So two separate calculations show roughly the same thing. As I said, it certainly could slow when Wilderness Lodge comes up later this year, but I think between 12 and 18 months from now is a reasonable estimate to be 100% sold.

Unless they grossly overpriced wilderness lodge (likely)...the poly sales will slow some. Also...because it's only studios...there may be more defections than a normal scenario