Pirates of the Caribbean - back row

[wisblue]

We will know though, some point next year when AECOM reports attendance numbers.\

The 2013 report ...
http://www.aecom.com/deployedfiles/Internet/Capabilities/Economics/_documents/ThemeMuseumIndex_2013.pdf

2009 Report
http://www.aecom.com/deployedfiles/Internet/Capabilities/2009%20Theme%20Index%20Final%20042710_for%20screen.pdf

What I find interesting is that there was only a 7.5% increase in attendance from 2009 to 2013 in Magic Kingdom, but they did in fact increase capacity (even if some of us aren't impressed with FL2) ... How much did capacity go up ? 7%ish ? No hard number here that I know of. BUT, unless this year has been a large spike in attendance, which no year previously would supposed in the trend, increased crowds really can't explain this ...

Explain what?

The question that I am raising is not whether standby wait times at some attractions are higher than they used to be, but HOW MUCH they have gone up.

The best way I can think of to do this is by comparing posted wait times now to posted wait times in prior years doing the best we can to use days with comparable crowd sizes. It would be nice if we had reliable information about actual wait times, but the information that's available now is being dismissed by some as inaccurate, and I'm not aware of any comparable data from past years to use for comparison.

Anecdotal statements like "Pirates was always a walk on before" aren't too helpful because those of us who have travelled during the holidays know that isn't true. It also isn't accurate to say that the wait time is always 45 minutes or more now in the middle of the day. Right now (about 2:30 EST) the posted wait time is 20 minutes, suggesting that the Thanksgiving weekend crowd has thinned out.

What I am looking for right now are some FACTS about wait times, both now and in the past. When Josh says that average posted wait times are up about 30% from the same time last year, I have to assume based on his track record that he has made an honest attempt to review the data. A 30% increase would turn a 15 minute wait into a 20 minute wait and a 30 minute wait into a 40 minute wait. Not insignificant, but hardly enough to make a major impact on someone's day unless he tours the park so inefficiently that he tries to hit many of the park's most popular attractions in the middle of the day.

By the way, one comment about increase in crowd sizes in the last 5 years. If it is accurate that overall attendance at the MK has gone up 7.5% in the last 5 years, that does not mean that attendance would be up 7.5% across the board throughout the year. It is possible (and maybe likely) that a disproportionate amount of the increase has occurred at the traditionally slower times of the year as Disney has tried to fill some of those times with special events and promotions. So, crowds at some of those times could be up by considerably more than 7.5% while attendance at the busier times (spring break, summer, and holidays) would be relatively flat. Without daily attendance figures there's no way for us to know this.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

I don't think it has anything to do with the guest losing his fingertips. The guy was sticking his fingers over the side of the boat and the boat bumped against the wall. One could get that injury no matter what row they were sitting in.

I think the new boats are unbalanced and they thought keeping the guests out of the back row would balance them better; apparently the new boats do not distribute weight as well as the old ones did. When the new boats came out guests who sat in the first two rows got SOAKED on the little hill. I mean, Splash Mountain soaked. Now the front row can get pretty wet but not nearly as bad as it was last year. I still know people who won't ride it anymore because of the possibility of getting really wet on that ride, whereas with the old boats that almost never happened.

 

[MickeyMinnie1971]

Last night there was a wait for the People Mover. I have NEVER seen a wait for that ride. Just thought I'd share that info.

There was a really long line for People Mover on the Saturday before Labor Day this year. It was actually roped off it was so long. I was shocked!!! We waited in it though because it had been closed all summer. It was the strangest thing.

 

[alvernon90]

I still know people who won't ride it anymore because of the possibility of getting really wet on that ride, whereas with the old boats that almost never happened.

Can't you just tell the CM who is loading the ride that you want to sit in the back of the boat? I know at DLR you can ask to sit anywhere and they will let you, though you might have to wait for one more cycle. I think skipping the ride entirely is a bit extreme if the front row is the only row that gets wet.

Similarly, is it possible to tell the loading CM that you want to wait for the next boat simply because the current boat is going to be filled with larger individuals? The heavier the boat, the more likely that water will slosh in, so avoiding heavy boats could also help.

 

[wareagle57]

I think I'm in over my head trying to understand all the points being argued in this thread.

Why would the park being more crowded traffic wise not correlate into being just as crowded wait time wise, and vice versa?

 

[lovetocruise99]

I was on the next to last row today. The front three rows were loaded fairly heavy. As soon as the ride started I noticed the water level seemed to be almost level with the boat. It was bubbly so maybe it wasn't as high as it seemed. At the splash point our boat seemed to lean heavily to the right and the people in the front got pretty wet. There was standing water in the entire boat so be prepared to get your shoes or feet wet.

 

[YouGotaFriendInMe]

My fingertips have all led good, long lives. If one of them were to die a hero on Stitch, perhaps it could lead to change.

My brother in law always said he wishes if he ever had a heart attack or health related issue it would be on Stitch so it would be deemed "inappropriate for riders" and would have to be remade........

 

[wisblue]

I'd like to compare their actual crowd levels for each park each day last week to each day this week, since their values are derived from attraction wait times and not actual guest numbers.

Here are the "what we saw" crowd levels reported by Touring Plans for the last 9 days in the form of MK/Epcot/DHS/DAK

11/23 8/8/7/7
11/24 10/9/10/9
11/25 3/9/8/5 (I think this was the day with really bad weather)
11/26 7/9/10/9
11/27 10/10/10/9 (Thanksgiving Day)
11/28 9/10/10/8
11/29 8/8/6/7
11/30 2/4/5/2
12/1 7/4/4/1

And here are the current predictions for the next 4 days:

12/2 3/3/4/4 (observed 2/3/2/1)
12/3 3/4/3/4
12/4 3/3/3/4
12/5 4/4/4/5

 

[Shaden]

, one comment about increase in crowd sizes in the last 5 years. If it is accurate that overall attendance at the MK has gone up 7.5% in the last 5 years, that does not mean that attendance would be up 7.5% across the board throughout the year. It is possible (and maybe likely) that a disproportionate amount of the increase has occurred at the traditionally slower times of the year as Disney has tried to fill some of those times with special events and promotions. So, crowds at some of those times could be up by considerably more than 7.5% while attendance at the busier times (spring break, summer, and holidays) would be relatively flat. Without daily attendance figures there's no way for us to know this.

Totally agree that that is possible. Though again, its hard to know at all how the crowds have been dispersed.

 

[Laketravis]

My experience over 20 plus years is that the actual wait is close to or less than the posted wait over 95% of the time....

Hold that thought.

 

[Laketravis]

Last night there was a wait for the People Mover. I have NEVER seen a wait for that ride. Just thought I'd share that info.

Interesting that you posted that. I took a picture today of the standby line for People Mover - at the same time the wait for Space Mountain was only 10 minutes. Not only did I think it was strange for People Mover to have such a long line, it seemed even more unusual under such light crowd conditions.

 

[Laketravis]

I saw where you were going as soon as you posted that picture from the MK last Thursday..

No, I don't think you did.

You seem to dwell on 'average wait times' without any consideration to personal waits at all.

Forget that those 'crowd indicators' are based on wait times, not head counts. Then consider, for example, someone who may have in the past rode their favorite attraction twice in one day. I don't think that is excessive obsessive compulsion, a touring maniac, or an FP power user by any stretch of the imagination.

Let's also suppose that they used two FP's to do so. And let's further suppose that we are talking about Space Mountain

They might have spent a total of 20 minutes in line for those two ride opportunities. But try that now with one FP and then a Standby Line, since there is a very high probability our example guest will not be able to get a second FP for Space Mountain that day.

One FP queue of 10 minutes plus one standby queue of 50 minutes and our guest has spent a total of 60 minutes in line, or 300% more than their previous experiences.

Do they feel the difference? You bet they do. Multiply this by several times a day over multiple days in different parks and the net result is our guest is spending much more time in lines than they previously did.

This is only one aspect to consider. Another is the higher utilization rate of FP+ and yet another are the extremely sophisticated algorithms Disney has developed to manage, manipulate, and distribute guests in the parks.

Those are the things I'll try to address in another thread as this one has been hijacked enough already.

 

[Laketravis]

. Right now (about 2:30 EST) the posted wait time is 20 minutes, suggesting that the Thanksgiving weekend crowd has thinned out..

Or the fact that It was pouring rain. I was standing right outside POTC at that time and the SB line pretty much disappeared because nobody was moving around the park.

 

[wisblue]

Hold that thought.

I guess if that has changed dramatically in the 3 weeks since our last visit that would be news.

 

[wisblue]

Or the fact that It was pouring rain. I was standing right outside POTC at that time and the SB line pretty much disappeared because nobody was moving around the park.

Ah, I didn't realize it was pouring all day. Every time I checked the wait times today the wait at POC was under 30 minutes, and wait times overall were quite low. But, if it was raining hard all day that would obviously be a factor.

Edit: The data from Touring Plans is consistent with what I observed looking at the Wait Times site a few times during the day yesterday. According to TP, the posted wait time at POC was below 30 minutes all day except for one brief spike at about 5:30 when it went to 30 minutes. That was probably a result of early arriving party guests joining the rest of the guests.

 

[wisblue]

No, I don't think you did.

You seem to dwell on 'average wait times' without any consideration to personal waits at all.

Forget that those 'crowd indicators' are based on wait times, not head counts. Then consider, for example, someone who may have in the past rode their favorite attraction twice in one day. I don't think that is excessive obsessive compulsion, a touring maniac, or an FP power user by any stretch of the imagination.

Let's also suppose that they used two FP's to do so. And let's further suppose that we are talking about Space Mountain

They might have spent a total of 20 minutes in line for those two ride opportunities. But try that now with one FP and then a Standby Line, since there is a very high probability our example guest will not be able to get a second FP for Space Mountain that day.

One FP queue of 10 minutes plus one standby queue of 50 minutes and our guest has spent a total of 60 minutes in line, or 300% more than their previous experiences.

Do they feel the difference? You bet they do. Multiply this by several times a day over multiple days in different parks and the net result is our guest is spending much more time in lines than they previously did.

This is only one aspect to consider. Another is the higher utilization rate of FP+ and yet another are the extremely sophisticated algorithms Disney has developed to manage, manipulate, and distribute guests in the parks.

Those are the things I'll try to address in another thread as this one has been hijacked enough already.

Now you're changing the subject I was trying to address.

I am just trying to address the narrow question of what standby waits are now compared to what they were before FP+ at the same time of day on a day with a similar overall crowd level.

Just like the overall subject of FP+, how much those wait times affect a particular guest is clearly a function of how that guest chooses to tour the park. For guests who tour efficiently by using their FPs to avoid at least 3 long lines and visit the other most popular attractions when the lines are shorter, longer wait times at those attractions in the middle of the day will not be a factor. The fact that FP+ makes it more difficult for people who became accustomed to using Fps to get multiple rides on their favorite attractions is nothing new.

 

[soniam]

From the article I read, they're leaving the back seat open because when they switched to the different boats it caused a problem in how the boats were getting "jammed up" with one another at different points on the ride. This caused frequent stoppages/ride down times, so as a temp. solution they leave the back row empty. It has nothing to do with people getting wet or losing fingers, from what I understand. Anyone else read this? LOL. I know I read it, I just can't remember from where....haha

I wonder if they were trying to use the back row when I was there late July. I got stuck in the FP line for 45 minutes, because the ride kept getting stuck. Finally got to ride, but I ended up in the front row and got wet from just above my knees to all the way down. I felt like I was going to fall forward out of the boat on the drop. I wish I had had a lap bar/belt. The ride got stuck multiple times while we were on it too.

 

[Laketravis]

I am just trying to address the narrow question of what standby waits are now compared to what they were before FP+ at the same time of day on a day with a similar overall crowd.

There is no such thing as similar overall crowd levels when the crowd levels you reference are based on wait times. If wait times go up, the crowd level numbers go up even if the number of guests didn't. It's a circular reference and you can't use it to say the reason wait times were higher is because the crowd level numbers were higher when the crowd level number is higher because wait times were higher.

Also consider for a moment why the People Mover had a line yesterday if the day was as light as you interpret it to be - which I agree was light, I took a picture of the front of the park entrance area at the same time yesterday afternoon as I did on Thanksgiving day when you say the park was a crowd level 10 (based on wait times) and they both look pretty empty with no lines at bag check or badge reader. To say those pictures are irrelevant because everyone is 'already in the park' is ridiculous.

Therefore, your narrow question needs to acknowledge that the crowd level numbers you point to and use as a basis cannot be used as a basis because other factors can and have caused wait times to increase that have nothing to do with the number of people in the parks - and those factors have therefore caused crowd level numbers to increase simply because wait times have, not because head counts have.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

Who really cares if people mover has a line? I've been in lines for it before (yes even before there was any FP+, I assume all of this is people again complaining that lines are longer due to FP+). It moves fast so it never occurred to me to complain about the line.

 

[wisblue]

There is no such thing as similar overall crowd levels when the crowd levels you reference are based on wait times. If wait times go up, the crowd level numbers go up even if the number of guests didn't. It's a circular reference and you can't use it to say the reason wait times were higher is because the crowd level numbers were higher when the crowd level number is higher because wait times were higher.

Also consider for a moment why the People Mover had a line yesterday if the day was as light as you interpret it to be - which I agree was light, I took a picture of the front of the park entrance area at the same time yesterday afternoon as I did on Thanksgiving day when you say the park was a crowd level 10 (based on wait times) and they both look pretty empty with no lines at bag check or badge reader. To say those pictures are irrelevant because everyone is 'already in the park' is ridiculous.

Therefore, your narrow question needs to acknowledge that the crowd level numbers you point to and use as a basis cannot be used as a basis because other factors can and have caused wait times to increase that have nothing to do with the number of people in the parks - and those factors have therefore caused crowd level numbers to increase simply because wait times have, not because head counts have.

When I talk about similar crowd levels I am not just referring to crowd calendar numbers. Because we don't have actual attendance numbers we will never know how many people are in a park. But, we can at least try to compare days that are somewhat comparable on their face, like looking at the weeks of and weeks after major holidays, middle of summer, mid September, or whatever to look at year over year waits.

You have to acknowledge that if you are trying to make an argument that overall crowd levels are down from the comparable dates in 2012 and 2013, you have nothing to base it on except for your observation of how crowded the parks and other resort areas "feel" and that there are a lot of other posters on the board who have reported that the parks have been very crowded on the same days that you visited.

As for the People Mover, I have no idea why it had a line at some point yesterday or how long it was. Maybe, it stopped for a few minutes causing the continuous loading to stop and the line to back up. Having a short (less than 5 minute) wait at the entrance to the People Mover is not unprecedented. I have noticed in recent years that they sometimes hold people at the bottom of the moving ramp and wait for it and the area just beyond it to clear completely before letting anyone else on it.