Pirates of the Caribbean - back row

[OrangeU]

From the article I read, they're leaving the back seat open because when they switched to the different boats it caused a problem in how the boats were getting "jammed up" with one another at different points on the ride. This caused frequent stoppages/ride down times, so as a temp. solution they leave the back row empty. It has nothing to do with people getting wet or losing fingers, from what I understand. Anyone else read this? LOL. I know I read it, I just can't remember from where....haha

 

[mrscoobs]

I also read that the front row gets pretty wet now, and when we were there two weeks ago, we got put in the front row. The seat and floor were wet so I prepared myself to get wet too. We didn't even get one drop wet. It was a cool evening and I read that Disney scales back water features on certain rides when it's cold out, so not sure if this is what happened here, but I was relieved!

Just want to say it maybe luck of the draw as we just rode Black Friday and got the front row and got shoes soaked. Clothes were fine, but shoes got completely soaked as water came up and over.

 

[wisblue]

closing the backrow at pirates also made mansion small world & spaceship earth longer too apparnetl.y weird

No, I don't think anyone is disagreeing that FP+ has increased standby lines by SOME amount at SOME attractions.

The disagreement (at least from me) comes when people suggest that FP+, all by itself, has caused standby lines at some of these attractions to go from 5 minutes to 45 minutes or more on a regular basis.

Since this thread is about POC, POC often seems to be at the top of the list when people talk about increased standby wait times, and the easywdw article linked earlier in this thread discusses standby lines at POC, this may be a good opportunity to discuss this.

In the easywdw article, Josh says that average standby waits at POC during the second week of November were 30% higher than the same time last year and peak wait times were up 50%. He says this is not due to increased crowds because overall crowd levels are only slightly higher than last year. He also recognizes that roping off the sixth row contributes to longer wait times at POC.

So, let's put all of this together, accepting the assumption that larger crowds have had no impact on waits at POC and that waits are between 30% (average) and 50% (peak) higher. During the period covered in this article (November 12-18) the highest posted standby wait time for POC was 45 minutes, except for the 2 days on which the ride had some significant downtime. On those days the posted wait briefly got as high as 55 or 65 minutes.

If we also accept the conclusion that peak standby wait times are up by 50%, that would mean that last year that peak wait time would have been 30 minutes instead of 45 minutes. If FP+ were the only factor affecting the line, we could say that it affected the wait time by as much as 15 minutes. But then if we also consider the dropping of the last row, that reduces the capacity of the ride to 5/6 of full capacity, a reduction of 16.6%. That reduction in capacity would, by itself, increase the wait time by 20% (I can explain the math behind this if you want). So, if the wait time would normally be 30 minutes, elimination of the back row by itself would increase the wait to 36 minutes.

Putting this together, I conclude that, if the wait time has gone from 30 to 45minutes, and increased crowds are not a factor, FP+ has added 9 minutes to the wait time and the reduced capacity has added 6 minutes.

I accept the fact that standby wait times at some attractions may have been increased by as much as 10 minutes at some secondary attractions because of FP+. I also recognize, as Josh's article points out, that there are plenty of ways to minimize or avoid these longer waits by hitting these secondary attractions earlier or later in the day. Josh also points out that the actual waits are often lower than the posted waits; onsite reports about whether those actual wait times are accurate seem to vary.

 

[over50visits]

What matters is the average wait time, not the peak time. Peak wait by definition occurs rarely, but people experience the ride throughout the day.

I assume your calculation of 20% is based on M/M/1 queueing. Actually the POC ride is M/D/k (k=number of rows). Even more accurately, arrival behavior is time dependent...also, balking at WDW can be related to queue length, and happens frequently at POC, making the calculations even more difficult.

The point in all this is you seem to argue that math proves the line is only a little bit longer. Most everyone's experience is significantly different. I'll take observed behavior over theoretical. Lines at POC have really gone up, as expected, when FP+ started funneling enough people there to result in cutting the walkup availability in half (one of the two lines)!

 

[wisblue]

What matters is the average wait time, not the peak time. Peak wait by definition occurs rarely, but people experience the ride throughout the day.

I assume your calculation of 20% is based on M/M/1 queueing. Actually the POC ride is M/D/k (k=number of rows). Even more accurately, arrival behavior is time dependent...also, balking at WDW can be related to queue length, and happens frequently at POC, making the calculations even more difficult.

The point in all this is you seem to argue that math proves the line is only a little bit longer. Most everyone's experience is significantly different. I'll take observed behavior over theoretical. Lines at POC have really gone up, as expected, when FP+ started funneling enough people there to result in cutting the walkup availability in half (one of the two lines)!

I am not saying that math proves that the line is only a little longer. The objective comparison of wait times presented by sources like easywdw establishes that. I am just trying to use some math to estimate how much the changes in wait times at POC are a result of FP+ and how much are a result of the reduced capacity.

If you would rather use actual experience instead of math, then why would you ignore the actual data from someone who has compiled posted wait times and can compare how wait times this year compare to wait times from prior years? If someone like Josh from easywdw says that average wait times at POC are up 30%, I take that to mean that , based on his analysis, a wait time of 40 minutes this year would have been about 30 minutes before FP+. I put more weight on a thorough analysis of all times than I do on the observation of a few guests.

If someone wants to ignore these facts and say that standby waits that used to routinely be 10 minutes have now routinely become 45 minutes, even with the same overall crowd size, that is their choice.

 

[Laketravis]

What matters is the average wait time, not the peak time. Peak wait by definition occurs rarely, but people experience the ride throughout the day. I assume your calculation of 20% is based on M/M/1 queueing. Actually the POC ride is M/D/k (k=number of rows). Even more accurately, arrival behavior is time dependent...also, balking at WDW can be related to queue length, and happens frequently at POC, making the calculations even more difficult. The point in all this is you seem to argue that math proves the line is only a little bit longer. Most everyone's experience is significantly different. I'll take observed behavior over theoretical. Lines at POC have really gone up, as expected, when FP+ started funneling enough people there to result in cutting the walkup availability in half (one of the two lines)!

I'm here now on my 11th day and I can say that you are spot on. I'll post details of observational data when I've got everything pulled together, but for now I will say that Disney has done a phenomenal job of driving guests to attractions they previously would not have considered, and that posted wait times for MANY (not some) attractions are substantially higher in relationship to crowd levels than before.

I also want to point out that the 'Actual' wait times posted by a couple of websites and a blog or two are totally useless to anyone but Disney, because they are not 'Actual' wait times but instead the last measured time, which can be either the Standby queue or the FP queue that was sampled. When you see a Posted value of, say, 70 minutes along with an Actual value of something like 13 minutes, the 13 minute value was most likely the FP queue measurement.

Like I said, I'll post more after I've pulled everything together but you are absolutely correct that armchair math does not explain the reality.

 

[wisblue]

I'm here now on my 11th day and I can say that you are spot on. I'll post details of observational data when I've got everything pulled together, but for now I will say that Disney has done a phenomenal job of driving guests to attractions they previously would not have considered, and that posted wait times for MANY (not some) attractions are substantially higher in relationship to crowd levels than before.

I also want to point out that the 'Actual' wait times posted by a couple of websites and a blog or two are totally useless to anyone but Disney, because they are not 'Actual' wait times but instead the last measured time, which can be either the Standby queue or the FP queue that was sampled. When you see a Posted value of, say, 70 minutes along with an Actual value of something like 13 minutes, the 13 minute value was most likely the FP queue measurement.

Like I said, I'll post more after I've pulled everything together but you are absolutely correct that armchair math does not explain the reality.

It will be interesting to see if your observational data refutes easywdw's conclusions, which are based on complete data on posted wait times taken at every attraction every 15 minutes every day.

 

[HulkBuster]

in other words it doesn't matter your experiens Travis youll be wrong becauz your you and not easywdw

 

[Laketravis]

Wisblue, you had pointed out last week how TP(?) had MK at a 10 on Thursday. Are you able to get crowd numbers (1-10) for each park for M-F of last week and then M-F of this week?

 

[wisblue]

Wisblue, you had pointed out last week how TP(?) had MK at a 10 on Thursday. Are you able to get crowd numbers (1-10) for each park for M-F of last week and then M-F of this week?

Yes, Touring Plans publishes their predicted crowd sizes and then, once the day passes, adds the crowd sizes they observed on those days. They also provide data about observed wait times at the major attractions. That ride data seems to only go back about 2 years.

 

[wisblue]

in other words it doesn't matter your experiens Travis youll be wrong becauz your you and not easywdw

No, what I am saying is that if Josh at easywdw reviews his data and says that wait times at certain attractions have increased by 30-50%, and Lake Travis' observations say they have increased by 300% or more, either Josh is wrong or Lake Travis' experience is not representative of a typical experience. Or maybe his recollection of what wait times were in previous years is inaccurate.

 

[Laketravis]

No, what I am saying is that if Josh at easywdw reviews his data and says that wait times at certain attractions have increased by 30-50%, and Lake Travis' observations say they have increased by 300% or more, either Josh is wrong or Lake Travis' experience is not representative of a typical experience. Or maybe his recollection of what wait times were in previous years is inaccurate.

Josh isn't reviewing his data, he is reviewing Disney's data in regards to posted wait times.

Do you think that Disney's posted wait times are always correct?

 

[Laketravis]

It will be interesting to see if your observational data refutes easywdw's conclusions, which are based on complete data on posted wait times taken at every attraction every 15 minutes every day.

In addition to the possibility that posted wait times are not always correct, there is the additional possibility that the data is NOT sampled every 15 minutes and some values are simply carried over from the last value. For instance, if period A shows 15 minutes and a sample was not taken again within 15 minutes, period B will contain the value from period A even if the wait time rose to 30 minutes.

 

[Laketravis]

Yes, Touring Plans publishes their predicted crowd sizes and then, once the day passes, adds the crowd sizes they observed on those days. They also provide data about observed wait times at the major attractions. That ride data seems to only go back about 2 years.

I'd like to compare their actual crowd levels for each park each day last week to each day this week, since their values are derived from attraction wait times and not actual guest numbers.

Meaning, if SM had a 70 minute wait last Thursday and a 70 minute wait this Thursday, they would rate crowd levels on both days the same even though one Thursday was Thanksgiving and the other one was not.

Wis, you might already see where I'm going with this. Everyone has historically estimated crowd size on attraction wait time, and also assumed the posted wait times were consistently accurate.

But what I am currently seeing does not equate to large crowds. Empty parking lots at CSR, empty buses, being paged within 5 minutes of checking in for ADR's even when we are 20 minutes early, not being shoulder-to-shoulder in the parks, being next in line at bag check and walking right up to a band reader - and then seeing ToT with a 60 minute wait? While websites like TP might say the park is at a 7 based on attraction wait times, in terms of people it may only be a 2 or 3.

But they aren't counting people.

 

[Shaden]

I'm here now on my 11th day and I can say that you are spot on. I'll post details of observational data when I've got everything pulled together, but for now I will say that Disney has done a phenomenal job of driving guests to attractions they previously would not have considered, and that posted wait times for MANY (not some) attractions are substantially higher in relationship to crowd levels than before.

I also want to point out that the 'Actual' wait times posted by a couple of websites and a blog or two are totally useless to anyone but Disney, because they are not 'Actual' wait times but instead the last measured time, which can be either the Standby queue or the FP queue that was sampled. When you see a Posted value of, say, 70 minutes along with an Actual value of something like 13 minutes, the 13 minute value was most likely the FP queue measurement.

Like I said, I'll post more after I've pulled everything together but you are absolutely correct that armchair math does not explain the reality.

So very much interested in your report, whether it confirms my opinion and experience or counters it. We are on the books again for May 2015, and I am excited about that, but it is a little tempered after our last trip.

 

[Shaden]

I'd like to compare their actual crowd levels for each park each day last week to each day this week, since their values are derived from attraction wait times and not actual guest numbers.

While websites like TP might say the park is at a 7 based on attraction wait times, in terms of people it may only be a 2 or 3.

This is fascinating, I had no idea how they calculated crowd levels, though I always suspected it wasn't actually the number of people in the parks.

We have had a bunch of people here reporting things like "it seemed busier but there weren't any more people in the parks" etc.

We have heard about the inaccuracy of crowd levels this year.

We have heard how crowds are "way up" although actual in park experiences and sort of head counting, other observations (parking lots, busses, etc) seemed to suggest crowds are not way up.

Will be interesting to see the overall crowd data on the Global Attractions Attendance report from AECOM for 2014. Give us a little more perspective.

 

[wisblue]

Josh isn't reviewing his data, he is reviewing Disney's data in regards to posted wait times.

Do you think that Disney's posted wait times are always correct?

I understand that Josh's data is taken directly from Disney's posted wait times.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean about Disney's posted wait times being "correct". But, if you are asking if I think that the posted wait time is exactly the same as the amount of time a guest will wait if he enters the line at that time, my answer is, of course, "no". My experience over 20 plus years is that the actual wait is close to or less than the posted wait over 95% of the time. Frequently, the actual wait is significantly less than the posted wait, but it has almost never been significantly longer. That experience has not changed in the visits we have made since FP+.

A comparison of year over year posted wait times should provide a pretty accurate comparison of actual waits unless Disney has suddenly changed its approach to posted wait times. I haven't heard anyone suggest that they are doing that.

 

[wisblue]

I'd like to compare their actual crowd levels for each park each day last week to each day this week, since their values are derived from attraction wait times and not actual guest numbers.

Meaning, if SM had a 70 minute wait last Thursday and a 70 minute wait this Thursday, they would rate crowd levels on both days the same even though one Thursday was Thanksgiving and the other one was not.

Wis, you might already see where I'm going with this. Everyone has historically estimated crowd size on attraction wait time, and also assumed the posted wait times were consistently accurate.

But what I am currently seeing does not equate to large crowds. Empty parking lots at CSR, empty buses, being paged within 5 minutes of checking in for ADR's even when we are 20 minutes early, not being shoulder-to-shoulder in the parks, being next in line at bag check and walking right up to a band reader - and then seeing ToT with a 60 minute wait? While websites like TP might say the park is at a 7 based on attraction wait times, in terms of people it may only be a 2 or 3.

But they aren't counting people.

I saw where you were going as soon as you posted that picture from the MK last Thursday. Without actual park attendance numbers, which Disney doesn't publish, it's going to be very difficult to prove that there are fewer people in the parks than in previous years and that those smaller crowds are producing longer wait times at attractions.

Obviously because I am not there I can't comment on how large the crowds "feel" but, as always, there have been plenty of reports on these boards from people who are there now and would disagree about the crowds being low. And they haven't been talking about just wait times.

 

[canoe86]

Last night there was a wait for the People Mover. I have NEVER seen a wait for that ride.

Just thought I'd share that info.

 

[Shaden]

I saw where you were going as soon as you posted that picture from the MK last Thursday. Without actual park attendance numbers, which Disney doesn't publish, it's going to be very difficult to prove that there are fewer people in the parks than in previous years and that those smaller crowds are producing longer wait times at attractions.

Obviously because I am not there I can't comment on how large the crowds "feel" but, as always, there have been plenty of reports on these boards from people who are there now and would disagree about the crowds being low. And they haven't been talking about just wait times.

We will know though, some point next year when AECOM reports attendance numbers.\

The 2013 report ...
http://www.aecom.com/deployedfiles/Internet/Capabilities/Economics/_documents/ThemeMuseumIndex_2013.pdf

2009 Report
http://www.aecom.com/deployedfiles/Internet/Capabilities/2009%20Theme%20Index%20Final%20042710_for%20screen.pdf

What I find interesting is that there was only a 7.5% increase in attendance from 2009 to 2013 in Magic Kingdom, but they did in fact increase capacity (even if some of us aren't impressed with FL2) ... How much did capacity go up ? 7%ish ? No hard number here that I know of. BUT, unless this year has been a large spike in attendance, which no year previously would supposed in the trend, increased crowds really can't explain this ...