On a more serious note.. Hurricane season..

[C.Ann]

Has anyone heard anything about why things have been so quiet so far this year? Is there a weather-related reason for it - or just "luck"?

Are they making any predictions for next month?

Something I'm always keeping an eye on because I have family and friends in hurricane-prone areas..

 

[madcam]

I heard that the high pressure system that caused all the unseasonal heat across the country in June (El Nino) is supposed to keep the storm season pretty mild this year. I think they were predicting 2-3 to make landfall this season in the U.S. with no indication of what level storm they would be as of yet. Cross your fingers and I will knock on some wood!!

 

[TnTsParty]

Because things don't normally get really fired up until Aug or Sept. I am keeping my fingers crossed that there are no hurricanes this year

 

[FSUDisneyGirl]

Somebody PLEASE knock on some wood!

I am moving about an hour north of where I currently live, and I HOPE that things stay quiet! I am on the east coast of Florida...

luckily, the house we are looking to rent has roll out hurricane shutters...thank goodness!

 

[arminnie]

I just cancelled a trip to Calif. (including DL) as I haven't been able to get to my home in New Orleans for several months. I've got to get my NOLA home hurricane ready.

I'll be in New Orleans most of August (month Katrina hit) plus will be in Orlando for a couple of weeks in September. I'm bound to be in the path of a hurricane at least once in the next few weeks.

I have some friends who are medical professionals in NOLA who like to evacuate to my condo. It's on the 6th floor of a very, very sturdy building and is blocks from 2 major hospitals. If something happens I can at least know about it. After Katrina it was 8 weeks until I knew what my damages were.

 

[karibritt01]

The position of El Nino does keep the Atlantic quiet, and makes for a lot of rain on the East coast.

 

[snarlingcoyote]

Well, personally, I'm hoping for hurricanes. Hurricanes act as a thermostat for the Atlantic and Gulf, siphoning all the energy that's being stored in the ocean in the form of heat.

The last time we didn't get a good hurricane or two, (the year after Rita and Katrina, I believe) some storms blew up that did more damage than some hurricanes. Some of my relations got 20-22 inches of rain in 24 hours.

So, all things considered, I'd really prefer a small "named storm" or two.

 

[schmitty]

Because things don't normally get really fired up until Aug or Sept. I am keeping my fingers crossed that there are no hurricanes this year

This is the correct answer. Don't listen to what anyone else says.

 

[jewjubean]

Im hoping to have a "small" hurricane season this year. Its the first season I will be away from home and living in FL.

 

[karibritt01]

Because things don't normally get really fired up until Aug or Sept. I am keeping my fingers crossed that there are no hurricanes this year

This is the correct answer. Don't listen to what anyone else says.

I beg to differ. From the NOAA website:

If El Niño does develop prior to or during ASO, atmospheric circulation patterns over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea could become less conducive for hurricane development (Gray 1984).

ASO= peak months of the season

 

[Golf4food]

I beg to differ. From the NOAA website:

If El Niño does develop prior to or during ASO, atmospheric circulation patterns over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea could become less conducive for hurricane development (Gray 1984).

ASO= peak months of the season

This is the correct answer. Don't listen to what anyone else says.

NOAA released a statement a few weeks ago regarding an early El Nino and the probability for a light Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season - I read it on the front page of Yahoo one day, for example.

That said, peak hurricane season falls on September 10th, so even in a light year you won't see much activity until closer to that date. The Atlantic storms off of Africa don't start forming until August usually. June/July are more likely to be Caribbean based storms.

 

[C.Ann]

This is the correct answer. Don't listen to what anyone else says.

NOAA released a statement a few weeks ago regarding an early El Nino and the probability for a light Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season - I read it on the front page of Yahoo one day, for example.

That said, peak hurricane season falls on September 10th, so even in a light year you won't see much activity until closer to that date. The Atlantic storms off of Africa don't start forming until August usually. June/July are more likely to be Caribbean based storms.

Wasn't it just a few years ago - well - actually I think 5 or 6 years ago - when there were at least 2 hurricanes that made landfall in late July, early August? I'm thinking it was the first summer my brother lived in Florida.. I could be wrong though.. I know things can get really wild from mid-August on - but I was pretty sure there had been hurricanes in the past that made landfall earlier..

I would be happy if this season is mild.. Too many people I have to be concerned about!

 

[Gina]

Just a thought... Hurricane Andrew was during an El Nino season, didn't form until mid-late August, and was the first named storm of that season. We all know what happened with Andrew.

For those of us closer to my neck of the woods, you're of course familiar with Alicia. Also the first storm of the season -- and the only named storm of the season in 1983, and it hit dead-on at the Galveston/Houston area.

It only takes one... so don't let a "slow" season be a reason to let your guard down at ALL.

 

[C.Ann]

Just a thought... Hurricane Andrew was during an El Nino season, didn't form until mid-late August, and was the first named storm of that season. We all know what happened with Andrew. .

Whoa! I didn't realize Andrew was during an El Nino season..

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Not sure--but we don't pay special attention until about August as Aug/Sep are when we have mostly seen activitiy.

June is pretty early as water is still kind of cool---July, I've never seen much activitiy either.

 

[RitaZ.]

Whoa! I didn't realize Andrew was during an El Nino season..

It was. It hit in late August. I still get when I think about it. It was horrible.

I'm hoping for zero storms this year.

 

[Gina]

Whoa! I didn't realize Andrew was during an El Nino season..

Trying not to complicate this too much, but I should clarify by saying that Andrew was during the ENSO-neutral part of an El Nino season. No two El Nino or La Nina seasons are the same, in either duration or magnitude, so even if the overall hurricane season is less than average you can still have a whopper of a storm -- such as Andrew.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, you know?

 

[karibritt01]

Wasn't it just a few years ago - well - actually I think 5 or 6 years ago - when there were at least 2 hurricanes that made landfall in late July, early August? I'm thinking it was the first summer my brother lived in Florida.. I could be wrong though.. I know things can get really wild from mid-August on - but I was pretty sure there had been hurricanes in the past that made landfall earlier..

They can absolutely come earlier in the season. It is just that the further north you go, the cooler the water temps in the Atlantic. It is usually not warm enough to sustain a strong hurricane on the east coast until later in the season. But there are numbered and named storms that will break the mold on occasion. Example: the only tropical depression to earn a number so far this year was off the NC coast in MAY.

Just a thought... Hurricane Andrew was during an El Nino season, didn't form until mid-late August, and was the first named storm of that season. We all know what happened with Andrew.

For those of us closer to my neck of the woods, you're of course familiar with Alicia. Also the first storm of the season -- and the only named storm of the season in 1983, and it hit dead-on at the Galveston/Houston area.

It only takes one... so don't let a "slow" season be a reason to let your guard down at ALL.

Very true. El Nino does not mean that there won't be any hurricanes, or even any strong hurricanes. It simply means that the water conditions in the Atlantic do not make it easy for hurricanes to develop, gather strength, and sustain that strength. But any hurricane coming into the coast should be taken seriously.

This year is the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Fran hitting NC. Fran caused $122K worth of damage to my home. You can believe that we monitor hurricanes, and take them all seriously.

 

[TnTsParty]

Originally Posted by TnTsParty
Because things don't normally get really fired up until Aug or Sept. I am keeping my fingers crossed that there are no hurricanes this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by schmitty
This is the correct answer. Don't listen to what anyone else says.

I beg to differ. From the NOAA website:

If El Niño does develop prior to or during ASO, atmospheric circulation patterns over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea could become less conducive for hurricane development (Gray 1984).

ASO= peak months of the season

Why does my post have to be included in this - basically what you copied from the NOAA website says August, September, October are the peak months - basically what I said in my post. So I don't know what you have to differ with???

 

[karibritt01]

Why does my post have to be included in this - basically what you copied from the NOAA website says August, September, October are the peak months - basically what I said in my post. So I don't know what you have to differ with???

Your post was added because it was your post that was agreed with. Without copying your post, quoting the other would have been pointless. Sorry to offend your message board sensibilities.

For the record, I was not disagreeing with you. I disagreed with the fact that the other post stated that the time of year was the ONLY reason, and that all other posts should be discounted. My "copy and paste" from the NOAA website was to back up mine and others posts that El Nino DOES affect the Atlantic hurricane season.