MerlinandtheMouse
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2023
The cabins and the beloved Fort Wilderness grounds have been around for 50 years and this has never happened. Why do you think it would happen now?
Old Key West Helps Direct Sales Rise Slightly in April 2024
- Thread starter maui22
- Start date
I don’t understand the economics of the cabins but the dues are so high that when looking at point chart the dues alone nearly make the cost per night staying here match the historic cash price of staying here with discounts. I don’t understand how this is working out so poorly price wise since Disney presumably operated them at profit for decades but I imagine for dvc comparisons it simply comes down to trailers being cheaper up front but not maintaining value so long term higher cost to maintain. I imagine Disney is happy with any sales they get because they likely have huge profit margain on the cost of these cabins (if you look price per point pending incentives your looking at these trailers selling for $1.6 million each).
As an owner, I thought it would be nice to stay here some time but never own there do to dues. However, pending the cash price of these long term, I would be shocked if booking on points makes any sense compared to renting my points out and paying cash.
As an owner, I thought it would be nice to stay here some time but never own there do to dues. However, pending the cash price of these long term, I would be shocked if booking on points makes any sense compared to renting my points out and paying cash.
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2008
VGF sold like hotcakes only thr first few months and then last summer when DVD had to heavily discount it to $161 for 150 points using MB.You could blame it on the taxes at VDH, or on the high dues at the cabins... But with RIV the resort is as comparable to VGF as you can get. Yet one sold like hotcakes and the other didn't.
If it looks like people don't like resale restrictions, and it sells like people don't like the resale restrictions, it must be the resale restrictions....
To this date, since last summer, they have yet to get RiV to that price level for 150 points…so, they obviously feel the sales are suitable. And, iMO, the only reason we saw that deal for VGF was because it wasn’t selling at the rate they needed to get it done before PVB tower came on board.
OKW is now selling because of its price….and DVD knows that price is the overall deciding factor when it comes to sales….altnough it will be interesting to see its totals when sale is over.
Agree with much of what you mention.
However, I don't think getting it sold out before PVB tower came on board seems like it wasn't much of a factor. I believe people were posting some VGF UYs were sold out around August. 9 months later, still no news on when PVB tower sales will start.
Guessing no one in the high level DVD meetings will ever talk publicly, so we may never know why they do things?
If they read the boards, I suspect they would laugh at me every time I check for a timeshare license regarding the tower.
DanCali
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2023
Unlike the previous poster, I disagree with a couple of other things...
It's not like Riviera was at full price at the time. During that same period, buying 150 points at RIV was $168/pt using MB, or an extra $1000 for 150 points. Sure $1000 is $1000, but on a ~$25K purchase it's in the ballpark of the closing costs. Not something that would matter to most if they really preferred one resort over the other.
Do you believe that an extra ~4% in cost accounted for the disparity of 155% in sales over that summer (337K points vs 132K points)? VGF sold 2.5x more than Riviera just because it cost 4% less and there was no other "elephant in the room"???
Another way to look at it - if the situation was reversed and VGF was at $168/pt and RIV at $161/pt so you really think RIV would have outsold VGF? I think the sales volume outcome would have been about the same as it was because that 4% price difference, or $1000, is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things...
Source: dncnews.com
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...in-strong-grand-floridian-surges-in-june-2023
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...r-off-as-walt-disney-world-rises-in-july-2023
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...ngthen-disneyland-sales-weaken-in-august-2023
We're 12 months later and PVB tower is still prices for sale. Is it possible they severely underestimated the demand for a resort without resale restrictions priced at or near resale value?
If price were the "overall deciding factor", shouldn't OKW sell at least 2.5x as much as Riviera? It has a much larger price discount vs. Riviera compared with the 4% price advantage VGF had over Riviera last summer. Yet OKW sold ~12.6K points in April vs 71K+ points for RIV (less than 20% of RIV sales).
There are many other factors besides the purchase price which affect demand...
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...elps-direct-sales-rise-slightly-in-april-2024
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jolynne28
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2017
I'm not sure how many other people are in a similar situation, but we own a travel trailer and have camped at the fort for a few years now and are about to close on our second DVC resale contract. There is no way to explain the uniqueness of the fort to outsiders that have/would never stay there, but it is an incredible experience. The fort fan base is rabid, and Disney will never have a hard time renting those cabins. I've seen more affluence there than anywhere else on property. Halloween at the fort has been our most beloved Disney experience hands down, and every year when the dates are released for booking 500ish days out everything is gone within an hour.
Before sales started we had discussed possibly buying direct there and selling our RV, but the price and dues are insane IMO, so we most likely will never get to stay in a cabin unless we rent cash or come across a crazy good resale deal a few years down the road.
The numbers I don't think we're seeing are how many blue card members are booking the cabins. If those members are filling up the declared cabins, then I'm not sure they care about the slow sales, especially since they have a trust product in the works that they've been able to keep very under wraps.
Before sales started we had discussed possibly buying direct there and selling our RV, but the price and dues are insane IMO, so we most likely will never get to stay in a cabin unless we rent cash or come across a crazy good resale deal a few years down the road.
The numbers I don't think we're seeing are how many blue card members are booking the cabins. If those members are filling up the declared cabins, then I'm not sure they care about the slow sales, especially since they have a trust product in the works that they've been able to keep very under wraps.
I Run Long
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2007
Concerning CFW and as a Cdn buyer where I have to add 35-38% to the price to factor in the exchange rate, the problem for me specifically is the price per point for sure but, add in the dues and, an especially hard pill to swallow, the fact that it is a restricted resort and there is no way I could ever justify purchasing at this particular resort. I can't imagine how hard it would be to sell a CFW contract on the resale market to anyone knowing they would be stuck with those dues for the life of the contract and could only ever stay there. It may have stood a better chance if it was an unrestricted resort where one might wince at those dues but hey at least if it became intolerable - sell it on the resale market. I'm afraid it will be dfficult to give those contracts away - I know, I'm exaggerating - maybe? Of course DVD probably doesn't care since I'm sure they will have no problem renting them for cash.
wnielsen1
Needs non-expiring passes
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2007
As far as CFW goes, I think Disney is learning about what is an appropriate point chart vs. cost of dues per point. A great point chart does not sell if the dues are much higher than the other WDW DVC resorts. How many times have you heard on these boards someone say that they are willing to stay there but they don't want to own there?
BrianLo
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2019
Really hard to say exactly what their timeline intentions were, but I think the strength of the sale also caught them off guard, personally. I really don’t think the intention was to speed it up to sell out in October. But it would also still be on sale if not for that pricing last year.
BrianLo
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2019
The trouble is there are two things you don’t really want to address. When they were priced similarly for the majority of the overlapping sales period, they sold similarly.
The other thing you don’t want to address is that RIV sales volumes over its lifetime are fairly normal. Even with every distractor thrown In the mix, they are still ‘fine’.
DonkeyHoTay
I see stuff that isn’t there
- Joined
- Apr 29, 2024
...If it looks like people don't like resale restrictions, and it sells like people don't like the resale restrictions, it must be the resale restrictions....
I know there are varying opinions on the success of Riviera direct sales given resale restrictions, but I am also in the camp of 'no chance I will ever buy direct at Riviera or any other new resort if they have resale restrictions'. I had the choice last month/this month and instead I was major contributing factor to the OKW direct sales reported.
MerlinandtheMouse
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2023
Tbf that has a lot to do with the prices. Would you have purchased OKW direct if it was at $165?
I will disagree on it still being for sale without the sale. DVCNews was showing it on pace for selling out mid 2024 with the same sales numbers.
However, resort sales pickup as soon as they become nearly sold out…FOMO.
BrianLo
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2019
Ya sorry - you are right! It was still in line to sell out around now and I’m sure it would have ramped up towards sell out status naturally.
So maybe they wanted it cleared for CFW? Lmao. Who knows. Their decisions are baffling.
CastAStone
Business nerd. Good at math. Bad at spelling.
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2019
I don’t know if it will get there, but It’s certainly a valid concern.
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2008
Then why did RIV outperform VGF for 4 to 5 months in 2022? It certainly had restrictions so for those months, people certainly had no issue with them...it also sold pretty well from opening December 2019 until the pandemic, with restrictions...so those people obviosuly were okay overlooking them.
If you have RIV and VGF selling, one at $161 and one at $167, then VGF gets the edge, not simply because it lacked resale restrictions, but because it was VGF, and was about the same price as buying it resale. I'll even go as far to say that if they had restrctions, people would have still bought those points at that price.
In terms of OKW vs. RIV, you are also talking 13 year difference in contract price...and it is a different resort. The point being that restrictions may matter to some, and I am sure have played some role in the sales, but VGF did not sell like hot cakes until DVD made it pretty much the same price as resale....had it only been about restrctions vs not, then RIV would never had sold more points than it ever.
It will be the same with PVB tower....I think the first few months will be large numbers, and then it will settle in if it is priced higher than RIV....and my guess is the same as with VGF, PVB tower would have sold not much differently with restrictions, because, again, its Poly.
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2008
I think the sale went faster than expected...but still, I think they realized that at the rate it was going before they brought back the MB program and incentives, its sel out could be too close to PVB tower sales, not to mention the cabin sales, and wanted to get it out of "active" sales" in time.
It is not like they haven't had resorts to sell...so not having VGF any longer...when RIV, AUL and VDH were all in active sales...wasn't a huge missing piece.
BrianLo
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2019
CFW for the moment is way more of a developer problem than a membership problem. Disney is the ones that own 90+% of the declared inventory. They are subsidizing the units at their 12$ annual dues for members to stay at with their SSR points.
Despite them being incredibly quirky as a DVC property, they are actually a fair deal on the points chart for SAP usage. The actual ownership pool will be enough to flood the holidays and otherwise there’s too many cabins declared for any other time of the year to not have 7 month inventory spill over.
That’s why it’s so weird to me. DVD is screwing themselves over on this one. Ya they are not a great deal to buy direct, but really quite literally no one is buying so it doesn’t actually matter.
Despite them being incredibly quirky as a DVC property, they are actually a fair deal on the points chart for SAP usage. The actual ownership pool will be enough to flood the holidays and otherwise there’s too many cabins declared for any other time of the year to not have 7 month inventory spill over.
That’s why it’s so weird to me. DVD is screwing themselves over on this one. Ya they are not a great deal to buy direct, but really quite literally no one is buying so it doesn’t actually matter.
DanCali
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2023
Ok - let me try to address these...
I think that demand is affected not just by the selling price but (maybe more so) by the difference between the resale and direct price. Most people would pay "something extra" to get direct points vs resale and that "something extra" will be greater for Riviera because the Riviera resale point product is highly restricted.
For example, I might be willing to pay an extra $15/pt to get direct VGF points vs VGF resale, and I might be willing to pay an extra $30/pt to get direct Riviera points vs Riviera resale (keeping in mind that VFG resale prices are higher than RIV now, but may not have been that much higher 2-3 years ago). So if they priced VGF at $220 and RIV at $190 I couldn't care less about either one of them as a direct buy. But if the priced VGF at $170 and RIV at $160, I'd consider buying VGF direct and not Riviera.
When the sales volume was similar perhaps the perceived value of the direct points of the two resorts vs their respective resale prices was similar (at least on average).
I have less context here since we're relatively new owners. But one thing that comes to mind is that these things should be normalized to the size of the owner base.
I suspect a large part of the direct sales are to existing owners adding on. @CastAStone said (post #20) that current Riviera sales are comparable to AKV in 2011. But is that comparison fair? How many new owners do you have since 2011 with new resort sales of AUL, VGF, PVB, and CCV all coming after that? All those new owners are potential add-on buyers. So I would definitely expect the monthly sales volumes of subsequent new resorts to rise substantially vs. 2011 just based on that factor. It's not happening with RIV or VDH.
I think that demand is affected not just by the selling price but (maybe more so) by the difference between the resale and direct price. Most people would pay "something extra" to get direct points vs resale and that "something extra" will be greater for Riviera because the Riviera resale point product is highly restricted.
For example, I might be willing to pay an extra $15/pt to get direct VGF points vs VGF resale, and I might be willing to pay an extra $30/pt to get direct Riviera points vs Riviera resale (keeping in mind that VFG resale prices are higher than RIV now, but may not have been that much higher 2-3 years ago). So if they priced VGF at $220 and RIV at $190 I couldn't care less about either one of them as a direct buy. But if the priced VGF at $170 and RIV at $160, I'd consider buying VGF direct and not Riviera.
When the sales volume was similar perhaps the perceived value of the direct points of the two resorts vs their respective resale prices was similar (at least on average).
I have less context here since we're relatively new owners. But one thing that comes to mind is that these things should be normalized to the size of the owner base.
I suspect a large part of the direct sales are to existing owners adding on. @CastAStone said (post #20) that current Riviera sales are comparable to AKV in 2011. But is that comparison fair? How many new owners do you have since 2011 with new resort sales of AUL, VGF, PVB, and CCV all coming after that? All those new owners are potential add-on buyers. So I would definitely expect the monthly sales volumes of subsequent new resorts to rise substantially vs. 2011 just based on that factor. It's not happening with RIV or VDH.
CastAStone
Business nerd. Good at math. Bad at spelling.
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2019
I did not say that. I pointed out AKV sold 50K points per month in 2011. Riviera has averaged ~80K points per month YTD.
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