Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Still Westward-Ho


Hurricane FRANCES

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 301431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. THE GOVERNMENT
OF FRANCE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST MARTIN AND ST
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR VIEQUES IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FRANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N... 58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Thanks for the update. If it takes a northward turn it won't be today, so don't expect to see that in the updates.

I think I have the cat thing under control now, as well. PHEW.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Hubby found us a room at All Stars for $55 for Saturday--if we don't need it or storm slows down--we can transfer to another day--Whew!!!!

Getting our plan in place--I'm worried...

Good news though--our newly built pool area and screen room have been included on our homeowners as of today (no charge ) and are covered for 10% of the value of my home since it is a separate structure. Excellent news for us--as our new addition isn't signed off on the permitting yet.

Not a whole lot of swimming for us this week thought

 

[cindalu]

I don't want it to hit DC because I am only a few hours away and it would come up the coast and hit us. I also know what Charley did as well. We left the day after Charley hit Orlando and we could see all the trees down.

 

[jfs9900]

I bet sometime this week they will announce that they will re-dock at Tampa. The projected path at 8am on Sat would put it too close for comfort for the 5pm departure.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I bet you are correct--with the wind path extended up to 125 miles from center--there would be no way the ship could make its way to PC safely--the seas would be terribly rough.

Awesome surfing weather though--we'll probably see alot of surfers on our coast in the next few days--they get so excited when the Atlantic gets stirred up. Hopefully they are wise to run for cover in a timely fasion.

 

[jfs9900]

TPA makes much more sense then to dock at Miami.... too much traveling for everyone involved.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

At least the weather in Tampa would possibly be better than Miami--they might get the side effects of Frances and just have downright nasty weather.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Wednesday is the day that we will know more. There is a ridge in the Altantic now that is keeping Frances from turning northward, and that is really what is determining where the Hurricane will go. The ridge should weaken by Wednesday.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Miss Jasmine--where did you get the trough information for the Atlantic.

Do share your resource so I can keep tabs on that as well.

Thanks!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I have just been checking NOAA, where you are getting your updates, as well as the local news station websites and http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.

In fact, I believe the ridge was mentioned in the last discussion update.

 

[panthergirl]

Our local paper here in Charlotte is saying the hurricane is expected to come in somewhere around Savannah and head into central North and South Carolina on Sunday. However, the storm will be off the east coast of Florida on Saturday. I would expect that if this is correct, it may have some impact on whether the ship can dock on Saturday morning. Of course, as we all have learned, these storms are unpredictable and alot can change quickly. I'd love for this thing to turn north and head out to sea! Having survived Hugo, I'm not anxious to go through that again. Wishing all of you cuising next weekend tons of pixie dust.

 

[CPM]

Originally posted by ganurse
well i definitely dont like that gold thread. does anyone know how long it takes to drive from port canaveral to miami?

Depends where in Maimi you are staying. I have a condo in Sunny Isles which is North Miami. I can make it in 3 and a half hours. You really need to allow extra time. The traffic going through West Palm and Boca is terrible even on non-work days.
If you are in S. Miami it can take 4 hours on a good day. I've done the drive many times.
I can't stand this waiting!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

OK--I breeze through those updates and don't read them carefully enough--I was hoping you saw a map somewhere with the trough. OK--same as ridge--got it.

I was in Hugo, too, panthergirl--lived in Charleston at the time--a lovely pine tree landed in the middle of my house--thankfully the AC unit was in the attic--so that big metal box prevented the tree from going further. We think the tree deliberately avoided our piece of junk car that we left out in the open It would have been nice if that was squashed instead. That time I lived well into the mainland, but in Florida I live on a barrier island.

Oh well, we have our EVAC plan in place--we know where we are going. Even if it hits Savannah--it will be hugging the east coast of Florida when it is on its way there, so we are all in for a humdinger of a labor day weekend.

My sister was going to fly in from KC, MO--but has since cancelled those plans

Hey--any DCL updates--since this thread is on the DCL portion of DIS--you guys hear anything about your cruise itineraries, yet?

 

[CPM]

I always read this guy's predictions, he's usually right on.
Take a look.
http://www.snonut.flhurricane.com/index.html

 

[panthergirl]

CPM, if this turns out to be the case, it would be great for FL and cruisers. Not so great for us here in the Carolinas. Hugo took that track through Charleston too. Yuck!

 

[selvey]

CPM - thanks for posting that site - it looks like a good one.
Panthergirl - I was in Charlotte for HUGO - and now my little house in Garden City (south of Myrtle Beach) looks like it might be in for it. I sure hope not. Since we're leaving on Friday, I guess my house in Columbia might see some too - oh no!!!!!!
I just want to get on that boat!
selvey

 

[Bigbaby]

Getting really bumded now What are the chances? I so looked forward to this trip, now Im just bla. Im trying to keep a chin up for my DS and DW but I guess knowing that Im driving down from NYC to FLA Thursday, and plans may be interupted do to Hurricane Frances I am just praying now this thing turns away or lightens up.

 

[selvey]

Don't get too bummed. It's definitely going "somewhere." If it will slow down some and stay out until Sun., we'll be well on our way. I HOPE!!

 

[CPM]

Originally posted by panthergirl
CPM, if this turns out to be the case, it would be great for FL and cruisers. Not so great for us here in the Carolinas. Hugo took that track through Charleston too. Yuck!

I know, I'm sorry. I hope it stays far east away from any coastline.