you are not the only one. i am reading to find anything that can make me think things are going in a more positive direction. my mom lives in new smyrna (central fl) and they just had a horrible storm. I would hate to think they would have 2 weekends of bad storms!
Offical Hurricane Frances thread!
- Thread starter mostyn17
- Start date
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Sunday evening 8pm advisory...winds slowed down a little...
KNHC 292358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004
...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...SAINT MAARTEN....ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...AND ANTIGUA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED TO THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 480
MILES... 772 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
MEASUREMENTS FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...204 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...204 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT WAS 954
MB...28.17 INCHES.
KNHC 292358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004
...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...SAINT MAARTEN....ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...AND ANTIGUA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED TO THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 480
MILES... 772 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
MEASUREMENTS FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...204 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...204 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT WAS 954
MB...28.17 INCHES.
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
The 5pm discussion from the same website
000
WTNT41 KNHC 292107
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REACHED THE EYE OF FRANCES AND MEASURED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 949 MB IN A 12 NMI EYE WITH FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 112 KNOTS. A DROP MEASURED 127 KNOTS AT THE 913 MB LEVEL
BUT THIS NUMBER IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS.
SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ON SATELLITE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH A LESS DISTINCT EYE.
FRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT MOST LIKELY
...THE HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.
FRANCES HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. AS FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING
AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 5 DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A
LITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE
HURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS
ARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A
HIGHER LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DATA GATHER FROM THE GPS DROPSONDES TO
BE LAUNCH FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. WE WILL CAREFULLY
MONITOR THE IMPACT ON THESE NEW OBSERVATIONS IN TONIGHT'S RUNS.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 292107
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REACHED THE EYE OF FRANCES AND MEASURED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 949 MB IN A 12 NMI EYE WITH FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 112 KNOTS. A DROP MEASURED 127 KNOTS AT THE 913 MB LEVEL
BUT THIS NUMBER IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS.
SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ON SATELLITE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH A LESS DISTINCT EYE.
FRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT MOST LIKELY
...THE HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.
FRANCES HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. AS FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING
AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 5 DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A
LITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE
HURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS
ARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A
HIGHER LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DATA GATHER FROM THE GPS DROPSONDES TO
BE LAUNCH FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. WE WILL CAREFULLY
MONITOR THE IMPACT ON THESE NEW OBSERVATIONS IN TONIGHT'S RUNS.
mostyn17
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2001
- Messages
- 895
I just watched the weather channel, yet again 
and the hurricane has slowed down and is now showing some sheer and is breaking up a bit! 
All of our prayers are working! 
YIPPEE!
I also got an email from a worker onboard the Magic. I asked about next weeks cruise and she did confirm that they have never canceled a cruise from a hurricane and said they will find another port to embark/disembark if need be.
It's nice for some good news. The great news comes when Frances is GONE!!!!!
Keep safe!
Travis
and the hurricane has slowed down and is now showing some sheer and is breaking up a bit! All of our prayers are working! YIPPEE!I also got an email from a worker onboard the Magic. I asked about next weeks cruise and she did confirm that they have never canceled a cruise from a hurricane and said they will find another port to embark/disembark if need be.
It's nice for some good news. The great news comes when Frances is GONE!!!!!
Keep safe!
Travis
I understand a little of it, not a lot. I think we'll know a lot more tomorrow after they get a chance to run the computer models again.
The latest from the Tropical Prediction Center is
THE MAXIMUM WIND IN FRANCES IS REDUCED FROM 115 TO 110 KT. (that takes it down to a strong cat 3)
and
NOAA HAS FLOWN A SYNOPTIC SCALE MISSION TONIGHT AND DATA FROM THIS MISSION IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS HOPEFULLY IMPROVED GUIDANCE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.
That translates to we'll know more tomorrow morning.
However I'm tracking the projections and they're trending it further NORTH...comeon baby, keep turning and run out of steam!
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Looks like her 5 day projection is starting to make a turn by day 5--
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/300858W5.gif
winds are down to 120MPH
5am discussion: Key words--WEAKEN, NORTHWEST TURN--keep the prayers up!
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300833
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE LATEST DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
MONITORING FRANCES INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
958 MB AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 99 KT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSITY 90 KT. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZED CYCLONE...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND FOR THE MOMENT THIS
MAY BE GENEROUS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATES TWO WELL-DEFINED
OUTER WIND MAXIMA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ABOUT 72 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE FRANCES BASICALLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FLOWN
EARLIER TONIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE HELPED THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...AS THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT
OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS
MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION EARLY ON AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. AFTER
72 HR...THE TRACK IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL CALLS
FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA.
FRANCES MAY HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE OBSERVED WEAKENING. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE
SHEAR TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL FORECAST STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE IF
FRANCES GOT STRONGER THAN THE 115 KT OFFICIAL FORECAST OR THE 121
KT GFDL FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR AT 72 HR
AND FORECASTS WEAKENING. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS UNTIL THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL. ONE
FLY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTER
WIND MAXIMA...WHICH SUGGESTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR
AND THROW OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/300858W5.gif
winds are down to 120MPH
5am discussion: Key words--WEAKEN, NORTHWEST TURN--keep the prayers up!
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300833
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE LATEST DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
MONITORING FRANCES INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
958 MB AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 99 KT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSITY 90 KT. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZED CYCLONE...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND FOR THE MOMENT THIS
MAY BE GENEROUS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATES TWO WELL-DEFINED
OUTER WIND MAXIMA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ABOUT 72 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE FRANCES BASICALLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FLOWN
EARLIER TONIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE HELPED THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...AS THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT
OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS
MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION EARLY ON AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. AFTER
72 HR...THE TRACK IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL CALLS
FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA.
FRANCES MAY HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE OBSERVED WEAKENING. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE
SHEAR TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL FORECAST STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE IF
FRANCES GOT STRONGER THAN THE 115 KT OFFICIAL FORECAST OR THE 121
KT GFDL FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR AT 72 HR
AND FORECASTS WEAKENING. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS UNTIL THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL. ONE
FLY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTER
WIND MAXIMA...WHICH SUGGESTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR
AND THROW OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Okay--I just looked at this weblink--and one of the paths has it going straight through Port Canaveral and my neighborhood---WAHHHHHHHHHHH!
That would be UKMET as of 8pm last night--not liking that!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html
Thanks for the update. You are great folks - keeping us informed. We are so far away and dont get regular updates regarding the weather over there. With BOTH our children in that area next week, we are worried - naturally. Please keep us informed. Many thanks to you all, and let's hope everyone will be kept out of harm's way, and the weather back to normal. Nat
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
when we went for our cruise out of Miami, it was about a 3 and a half hour drive. We left about 6am--and got to our cruise terminal (Carnival) by about 9:30am.
My in-laws are about 2 and a half hours from my house--so it is probably roughly 2 hours from PC--the Port of Tampa is 15 minutes from their house in downtown Tampa right next to the aquarium--fairly easy to get to. Since the path has it so close to the east coast--I am wondering if they will just go to Tampa since they will be coming off of the Western Carrib cruise anyway. Just a thought.
Hey Nat--all these web-links you should be able to get to. But we are more than happy to keep you posted! Do you have 2 on DCL, I just knew of one from reading the posts (the Palo's server--forget her name).
Okay--I'm for 3 hour updates now---enough of this every 6 hour business. I do not have the Weather Channel--so anybody with TWC, if they update some more, please share
Especially their "predicted US landfall".
My in-laws are about 2 and a half hours from my house--so it is probably roughly 2 hours from PC--the Port of Tampa is 15 minutes from their house in downtown Tampa right next to the aquarium--fairly easy to get to. Since the path has it so close to the east coast--I am wondering if they will just go to Tampa since they will be coming off of the Western Carrib cruise anyway. Just a thought.
Hey Nat--all these web-links you should be able to get to. But we are more than happy to keep you posted! Do you have 2 on DCL, I just knew of one from reading the posts (the Palo's server--forget her name).
Okay--I'm for 3 hour updates now---enough of this every 6 hour business. I do not have the Weather Channel--so anybody with TWC, if they update some more, please share
Especially their "predicted US landfall".
mostyn17
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2001
- Messages
- 895
I just pulled it up on yahoo maps and I just did it from Orlando airport to miami and it's saying 3 hours and 50 minutes. If in deed it would be in canaveral area....aroune 2 pm on saturday...They would probably just go to Tampa or leave earlier from canaveral.
Keep praying!!
Travis
Keep praying!!
Travis
WisconsinDisneyGirl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2004
- Messages
- 573
Lets just keep praying that it keeps slowing down so we don't have to drive to other ports!!!! I also feel like a "weather geek" watching all the websites a few times a day. I feel like I am getting nothing done around my home. I should be packing for the trip and moving! We are closing while we are on the cruise and moving into our new house when we get back. Talk about stress!
Miss Jasmine
Time for something new!<BR><font color=limegreen><
- Joined
- May 23, 2001
- Messages
- 16,856
Ick, I am not liking that UKMET prediction. It would be hitting my house as well. They said by Wednesday we should really have a better idea of what Frances is going to do. Until then, it's just like torture. I really don't care if my house is destroyed (well I do, but I can deal with that) while I am away, but I was planning on leaving my cat at home, now I have to find someone to watch him for me just in case. 
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Miss Jasmine--you might call around to the animal hospitals or kitty hotel type places--they should have EVAC plans in place and might have a place to take all the animals.
Also, a pet sitter that I have used--in the event of an evacuation while she is pet sitting--she takes all her animal charges and evacuates with them. If you want her name and information--I can hunt it down--not sure which part of the Space Coast you are on--but I am sure if she cannot service you there might be other pet sitters that will--check the pet stores and stuff--usually business cards for sitting services are there.
Lots of luck to you! (And to me )
No 8am advisory--I guess Frances isn't worthy of 3 hour updates yet, any updates on TWC, yet?
Also, a pet sitter that I have used--in the event of an evacuation while she is pet sitting--she takes all her animal charges and evacuates with them. If you want her name and information--I can hunt it down--not sure which part of the Space Coast you are on--but I am sure if she cannot service you there might be other pet sitters that will--check the pet stores and stuff--usually business cards for sitting services are there.
Lots of luck to you! (And to me
)No 8am advisory--I guess Frances isn't worthy of 3 hour updates yet, any updates on TWC, yet?
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
I doubt they would leave earlier from canaveral...Charley was forecasted as an 8-9pm hit for Orlando, and they left 2 hours early...a 2pm strike guestimate--leaves no time for the ship to even return to port and shuffle everyone off an on quickly enough. I think it is a more likely candidate for a port shuffle instead of disembark time shuffle.
At least in Tampa, not too many ships--and you'll get a nice arrival view of your ship...not like in PC--but still, a dramatic entrance none the less for you!
Lots of luck to you and to my house!
At least in Tampa, not too many ships--and you'll get a nice arrival view of your ship...not like in PC--but still, a dramatic entrance none the less for you!
Lots of luck to you and to my house!
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
We are WORTHY, We are WORTHY!!!!
An 8am advisory--Still Westward Ho--with no North mentioned
Does anybody know the milage of how far Bahamas is off of the coast of Florida???? Tropical Storm Force Winds extend out 85 miles from center and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 125 miles from center.
8am advisory:
Hurricane FRANCES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT31 KNHC 301211
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND
ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
An 8am advisory--Still Westward Ho--with no North mentioned
Does anybody know the milage of how far Bahamas is off of the coast of Florida???? Tropical Storm Force Winds extend out 85 miles from center and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 125 miles from center.
8am advisory:
Hurricane FRANCES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT31 KNHC 301211
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND
ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
Miss Jasmine
Time for something new!<BR><font color=limegreen><
- Joined
- May 23, 2001
- Messages
- 16,856
Thanks Lisa, I am going to check and see if my mom can take him first. I can't take him to kennel because he is not up to date on all his shots (he has some problems with them). If that doesn't work out, then yes I will look for a pet sitter. UGH. Now I am thinking if this does take a northward turn then I may not get home for a couple days (I am supposed to fly back home Tuesday morning). Ick, I should just cancel this trip to DC.
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Can you take kitty with you---a cat sized pet carrier would fit under the seat on a plane--not sure of shots need to be up to date, they probably would need to be.
Any ideas Miss Jasmine on how far we are from the Bahamas?
Any ideas Miss Jasmine on how far we are from the Bahamas?
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Here is the 11am Hurricane Discussion--of special interest is the last paragraph that says not to focus so much on the track especialy at 96 and 120 hours since the margin of error can be hundreds of miles--some optimism in a sea of doubt
Hurricane FRANCES
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Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 301425
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT EYEWALL. THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...
AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT
275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.
IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane FRANCES
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Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301425
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT EYEWALL. THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...
AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT
275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.
IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
FORECASTER PASCH
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