Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[SouthFLMommy]

We're going to Disney for the weekend. I don't know what to do if it's going to hit. We live in Southeast Florida, so we'd have to leave our house in the hands of Frances.

My ideal would be to board up the house and head up to the hotel, but my dh is in Orlando all week for business, so I'd have to hire someone to put up the shutters.

I'm hoping it doesn't hit and that it's good news for us and all you Cruisers!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

5pm Discussion--National Hurricane Center.

Northern Ridge expected to prevail over next 72 hours--but should weaken--question as to whether it can weaken enough for us Floridians.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302024
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

REPORTS FROM A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB AND THERE WAS A FLIGHT
LEVEL...700 MB...WIND OF 122 KT JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.
THERE IS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES...SUCH AS THE CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS THAT WERE OBSERVED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND ALSO SEEN
IN TRMM AND SSM/I DATA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY
CONSERVATIVE.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...275/12. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE IS
INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME
SLOWING AND A SLIGHT BENDING OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT
IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ONCE AGAIN...IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT...ESPECIALLY A HURRICANE AS LARGE AS FRANCES...AND
FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.5N 60.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 19.7N 62.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 20.2N 64.8W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 21.0N 67.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 70.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 77.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 120 KT

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Current westard movement and movement space is expected to continue for the next 24 hours--perhaps a hint at a turn....


000
WTNT31 KNHC 302038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS...CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST.
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST.
CROIX.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES... 355 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS IN A
FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N... 60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

 

[ganurse]

i would kind of like to head to tampa to board..the weather would be better..trying to worry until tomorrow night

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

5pm 8/30 projection

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/302043W5.gif

I'm not a meteoroligist--but Frances is keeping lower than projections have been predicting...within a 48 hour timeframe (I'm comparing 5pm Monday with 5pm Sunday)...we need that ridge to dissipate b/c it is keeping Frances low.


Who want to join the official "Turn Baby Turn" Club (someone coined that earlier in this thread...I nominate you our charter member )

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html

 

[Doctor P]

I hesitate to post this for fear of jinxing us but if you look at the historical maps, the odds are extremely good that this storm will not hit the coast of Florida (at least directly), but history is not always a good guide. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_climo.html

 

[jfs9900]

That may be true but look at the computer guidance - it appears that they are all trending towards central florida/were as before some were pointing north and northeastward....



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html

 

[WisconsinDisneyGirl]

My TA callled me today. She said that she called Disney and they said to wait until tomorrow and they may have a better understanding where the boat might dock. We are sailing on Sunday the 5th. Who knows what might happen in the next few days.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

They just had a story on our local news that it is a wive's tale basically to assume that all hurricanes will do that. While it provides some optimism that it will turn--it is not always the case. If you notice, Andrew is not listed on that history--as it only shows hurricanes that were within 600 miles (I think) of Frances' current position--and it shows the subsequent paths of the hurricanes. That ridge needs to weaken enough in the next 72 hours to further reduce the possibility of a direct East Coast Florida hit.

There is wiggle room--but looking at the history of Frances's predicted path--she is dipping several miles south of the anticipated path--so far, it has been an overestimate of her path as opposed to an underestimate.

As far as what similar storms did--most also missed the Bahamas--as the turning point was before then--although I do like that one storm that decided to go NE instead of NW--that would be pretty cool.

They wanted Hugo to turn, back in 1989, and that big bad boy beelined for Charleston without wavering much.

I am just about to go into prep mode for this thing. If I wake up in the morning and it is still aimed at Florida--you bet your bippy that I will be leaving home come Friday night or Saturday early a.m.

 

[lisa702]

Just found this
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_strike.html

 

[steineymel]

My family and I are supposed to arrive at Walt Disney World on Teusday September 7th. If Hurricane Frances DOES hit do you think our trip will be OK by then or should we plan on postponing it?

Melodi

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Steineymel--I think your trip would be okay--the hurricane is forcasted for the weekend. Sorry that we are being pessimistic on here. Frances still has wiggle room.

Disney was able to open up the morning after charlie hit (only animal kingdom and I think maybe the water parks were closed). Universal and Sea World were closer to the direct line of the storm and those theme parks opened the next morning as well.

It is hard to say what you should do--I think on-site reservations have a 5 day cancellation policy--so you have until thursday to cancel or move your trip a little later date. I would wait until at least Wednesday or so before basing your decision on the predicted path.

All of Disney's power is underground--so there is no risk from that as they will not have to rebuild their power grid as had to happen in the city of Orlando and Kissimmee and other areas. Power should be able to restored very quickly if it is lost. They do have lots of trees--but they also have their own everything--police, fire rescue, electricity--they are their own city basically. They should be able to clean things up rather quickly. If Frances hits by Saturday--by Tuesday, Disney should definitely be functional--pending where and how hard Frances hits of course.

Without having her more accurate path more firmly defined, it is of course hard to predict exactly what Disney will be like on your arrival. Wait a couple of days

Disney Magic was on the news!!!! About her itinerary change--still planning for Costa Maya (?) on Thursday.

 

[mushck]

Melodi,

If Frances was a direct hit to the east coast of FL I think you would still be fine on Tuesday. Even with Charley the parks and hotels had power and were running pretty smoothly the day after the storm. It is still a long way out and a lot can change. You should be fine.

Trying to stay positive!

 

[Dancind]

The biggest problem most WDW/DCL tourists had right after Charley was the closure of the airport. Lots of damage there. Don't know if they're ready for another one, but they might be closed again for while.

 

[Rachelizabeth]

Anyone else holding their breath and watching Frances' movement????? I'm set to drive to PC on Friday!

Rachel



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/300858W5.gif

 

[CRSNDSNY]

What do you think the chances are for those of us flying into MCO Friday evening?

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Friday evening should be okay--MAYBE---landfall is expected sometime on Saturday--you would be arriving well over 12 hours prior to landfall....

Flights were still going into MCO on Friday during Charley--in the a.m. Starting at noon (about 9 hours prior to storm hitting Orlando), that is when flights began cancelling.

The airport is kept open as long as possible--but it is mostly airlines that start making decisions to cancel flights--MCO will not cancel until the "breezes" get to "windy" for safety.

You might consider flying standby earlier in the day or calling your airline about a possible earlier flight--but Friday should be fine--Frances will be in the Bahamas.

 

[KANSAS]

i want in on this thread

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Additionally---only 1 jetway was destroyed at MCO--and there was flooding in one area b/c they could not locate the source of a leak. Other than that, MCO damage was limited to minor roof damage and hangars. It did take 2 or 3 days to straighten out all of the flights. Some flights left Saturday afternoon/evening after the hurricane, but most did not resume until Sunday.

ORlando Executive airport had much more damage with flipped planes and one large plane that was flipped and destroyed...they also had a lot of hangar damage.