Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[disneyfuntime]

Being on the west coast I truly pray for all of you. My sil and her dh are on the wonder at this time with their 4 children. From what I can see they should be back in port before frances gets close to FL they will be staying until sunday then flying back to the west. I worry for them especially with the small children.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Checked out the global computer model--seems 50/50 half going towards Florida--other half aiming at the Carolinas..

Does anyone recall if it as changed since 5pm?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html

 

[LegalBriefs]

OK... just got off the phonewith DCL... they said, and I quote "There will definitly be a change in the (September 4th) intinerary, we are in negotiations right now..."
She continued and said that we may be using their "Alternative Port" but she declined to comment on where that would be.. she said the plans would be finalized by thursday or friday and they would make an official announcement at that time...

Does anyone have any inside information? Any contacts to tap? Anyone know where the "Alternative Port" would be?

 

[Windermere]

Actually I just got off the phone with them too and she said everything was 'no 'monitoring the sitrmal' at this point but that they are 'monitoring the situation' and that 'the catain has the final decision'

 

[Windermere]

Frances Still On Track Toward Florida

POSTED: 7:14 am EDT August 30, 2004
UPDATED: 5:40 pm EDT August 30, 2004

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- Powerful Hurricane Frances is bearing down on the Leeward Islands Monday night, with a hurricane warning now in effect in Antigua, St. Kitts and Barbuda.


HURRICANE FRANCES
Public Advisory
Discussion
Projected Path
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
INTERACTIVE: Hurricanes 101
INTERACTIVE: Atlantic Hurricane Tracker
INTERACTIVE: All About Flooding
National Hurricane Center
QUIZ: Survive This Hurricane Quiz!




View: Frances' Location and Projected Path







There's a tropical storm warning posted for Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and the British Virgins. A tropical storm watch is also in effect at St. Croix. Frances is centered about 220 miles east-northeast of the northern Leewards. Movement is to the west at about 14 miles an hour, meaning the center is expected to pass just north of the Leewards.

Top sustained winds have decreased to about 125 miles an hour. Forecasters look for some fluctuations in strength over the coming day or so. But they admit their wind estimate is "probably conservative."

The official forecast track runs the hurricane through the Bahamas and puts the center just off the Florida coast at about Fort Pierce Saturday afternoon. But experts say this is highly adjustable and those ahead of the hurricane should not focus on the center of the forecast track.

Basically, the five-day outlook covers an area from northern Cuba to the South Carolina coast.

Frances centered at latitude 19.5 north, longitude 60.0 west.


Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.


Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

 

[ganurse]

how do we find out whats going on or if it will be cancelled?

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AS A STRONG CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER TONIGHT.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES
...305 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS IN A
FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 180 MILES...290 KM.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ESTIMATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 60.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

ganurse--your cruise won't be cancelled--it just will not start in the same place...good news guys those--looks like the Eastern Carribean will be spared, so hopefully you can still salvage some of your itinerary.

Keep up by calling your TA or DCL daily...by Wednesday, the certainty of landfall will be better known. (Anything beyond 3 days is a highly educated guess and subject to change, which we are all hoping for)

If you are concerned about flight arrangements--if you weren't planning on flying in early--see if work schedules allow and if they do, go ahead and change your flight NOW--if you wait a few days, it could be more difficult for you to make this change.

For anyone thinking of driving--be very very careful--especially if it involves waking up early in the mornng on Saturday....Roads may be mobbed with evacuations as people from the east flock to the west..so if you port is moved south to Ft. Laud or Miami or West to Tampa---take this into account for your travel plans.

I wonder what the current people on board--how will those who parked in PC be able to get their cars if there is a hurricane active in that area....

 

[alexandrew]

where did you get your info from....??? I called DCL 3x and spoke to different agents...all were adamant that nothing in terms of itinerary changes have been made for the 9/4 sailing....





agent provocateur!!!!!

 

[willoughbyclan]

Starting to get a little nervous now. We fly into MCO 3:40PM on Saturday for the Sunday cruise departure. Looks like there is possibility that our arrival is smack dab in the hurricane's predicted time of landfall. Just yesterday we thought that Frances would be all said and done with the exception of damages by 3:40 on Saturday. Sure hope this one "Turn Baby Turns".

 

[cjsmith]

Originally posted by ganurse
how do we find out whats going on or if it will be cancelled?

If you can board at port canaveral, you may not find out until you reach the port where the ship will be going. Our friends left Saturday on the Caribbean Princess out of Fort Lauderdale and kept calling Princess on the ride from Naples to the port. They were repeatedly told that there was no changes, but once they arrived they were told that rather than the Eastern ports they would be going to Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and Cozumel. I made her all new excursion plans from here since we just did some of those ports on the Magic in Jan 04 and June 03.

Dont worry, they will leave from a port and you will cruise somewhere. Think of the whole thing as one big adventure.
And don't let the hurricane advisories scare you too much, it's way too early to tell where it's going. I just went through Hurricane Charley and can tell you that it changed it's target within hours. I don't read too much into the official reports right now because our local forecasters kept telling us it was coming our way and to prepare and the national hurricane center in Maimi kept telling us it was still going to Tampa. This storm could dramatically change it's path and not go anywhere near Port Canaveral. Our local forecasters are showing that the target area is great and may even be up as far as the Carolinas. By Wednesday you should have a much better idea.
Be prepared, try and get here earlier and be ready to go on a magical mystery cruise! Start researching some of the other ports and thinking of different things you may want to do. The computers are on board to plan things and you will have a wonderful cruise no matter what!! Keep a positive attitude!!

 

[WisconsinDisneyGirl]

I am on hold with DCL right now trying to find out what to do about out 9/5 cruise. It is funny, we camped 5 different times this year and it rained and we froze every time! Now we are going on a wonderful vacation and the mother of all rain storms is comming. Just our luck. ALSO- this is the second DCL we have tried to take too!!! The first one was 6 years ago. We got a call a few weekd before our honeymoon and they told us the ship was not finished and was still in Italy! Will I ever be able to take a DCL???????????????????????

 

[CPM]

Originally posted by WisconsinDisneyGirl
ALSO- this is the second DCL we have tried to take too!!! The first one was 6 years ago. We got a call a few weekd before our honeymoon and they told us the ship was not finished and was still in Italy! Will I ever be able to take a DCL???????????????????????

Oh my word! I'm scheduled for the 5th as well. Let me know what they say.
I had a bad feeling about hurricanes this year. I guess I was right.

 

[WisconsinDisneyGirl]

Just got off the phone with DCL. The CM was kind of short with me (have never had that problem with DCL- maybe they have had a million calls about the same thing). Anyhow- she said "we have not changed any plans as of now. Call back Friday or Sat. The captain is keeping an eye on things and is concerned about the people onboard right now." Well okay then....I was not trying to be rude. I just don'e know what the heck to do. Just need some helpful info to make some decision. I am glad there are others on this board that understand. God Bless all of you.

 

[Shebbieal]

CJsmith (Carolyn)

Hey neighbor, Naples here too!!!!!!!!!

Sherry

 

[mostyn17]

I have been keeping in touch with someone onboard the Magic. She said she will email me as soon as they know the plans for our 9/4 cruise.

By the looks of things....I'm really thinking we will be boarding in Tampa. I could be wrong....however, this has never happen before lol

I wonder what they do with all those poor peoples cars at port canaveral.

If we go out of Tampa...I wonder if they will just do the Western again or just pick different ports all together.

Keep Safe and keep up the prayers!
Travis

 

[jfs9900]

HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...CORRECTED FOR... REVISED TROPICAL STORM WATCH...

...MAJOR HURRICANE FRANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES... 245 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...19.7 N... 61.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[CM_Mom]

The best line I've seen is on the Forecast Advisory

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT (about 25 mph) EACH DAY

Turn Baby Turn! Those poor folks near Orlando don't need any additional hurricane visitors.

The unfortunate part is that this storm is staying remarkably near the track that was forecast 4 days ago.

Get out of the way Gaston and Hermine so Frances can go out to sea!

 

[disneyma]

This should be very interesting over the next few days...Keeping fingers crossed for you Travis and al

 

[CM_Mom]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING.

INTERESTING I can live without. Prayers for those folks in central Florida if they get hit again.