Not Worth Purchasing Resale

[RoseGold]

I’m afraid I’m not following. APs are not a resale perk, so they shouldn’t impact resale decisions at all

Plenty of people on the sidelines waiting for APs, with or without discounts and to make resale/direct decisions. (And Florida has discounts anyway). They aren't going to plan two 8 days trips a year without some kind of AP. I'm one of them.

Buying a five figure timeshare is a lot of commitment. Why not wait until AP pricing comes out in a few weeks and we will know better what we are all working with. And maybe direct is smarter then? Maybe DVC isn't even a great idea then? Who knows?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I’m afraid I’m not following. APs are not a resale perk, so they shouldn’t impact resale decisions at all, and VGF2 pricing is either going to be close to Riviera, which would put downward pressure on resale VGF, or priced in the vicinity what it was as a sold out resort, in which case resale VGF prices shouldn’t change.

In any case, my point is that contracts are sitting, which means too much supply, which lowers prices over time. So to counter that something needs to happen that increases resale demand.

That happened with the onset of COVID-19. I watched resale pricing for over a year. The prices actually went UP not down. You would have thought at least a pandemic would drive prices down, but no that did not happen. We are in a state of inflation. Prices never drop during an inflation, so why would resale prices drop? Other factors are in place other than supply and demand.

 

[RoseGold]

You would have thought at least a pandemic would drive prices down, but no that did not happen.

It did happen. I bought VGF in the 150s summer 2020. I had been watching resale for years and has chose not to buy VGF in 2019 when it was in the 170s/180s.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

That happened with the onset of COVID-19. I watched resale pricing for over a year. The prices actually went UP not down. You would have thought at least a pandemic would drive prices down, but no that did not happen. We are in a state of inflation. Prices never drop during an inflation, so why would resale prices drop? Other factors are in place other than supply and demand.

I think prices went up during covid because there was a lot of stimulus money pumped out. Many people got checks who were still working and did not need them so there was lots of extra money. Also there were less contracts available. I think now that things have somewhat normalized we will see how it plays out and where resale ends up. There are alot of resale contracts out there now and many are not moving

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I think the problem is simply that the secret is out. When enough people know about something, price ranges narrow and large deals go away (I.e. market efficiency). Probably we'll never see the big discounts again

 

[Suzabella]

Does anyone think the increase in Disney hotel costs has also helped increase resale demand and thus price? I could see someone looking at what staying on property would cost for one trip and deciding that same money would buy points on the resale market, that DVC makes more sense for their future trips. With the cost of everything at WDW continuing to rise, I could see people trying to lower the future cost by purchasing points.

 

[Lee Matthews]

I think it’s purely down to people not taking vacations for a couple of years, in the US everyone got a stimulus cheque and here in the UK I managed to save a lot of money working from home.
With all that extra money, something like DVC has made sense for alot of people to buy in.

 

[RoseGold]

I think the problem is simply that the secret is out. When enough people know about something, price ranges narrow and large deals go away (I.e. market efficiency). Probably we'll never see the big discounts again

The “problem” is the natural result of RIV restrictions and no new construction. RIV won’t sell out for years, maybe Aulani will never sell out, and there’s nothing planned except a small VGF building.

Direct has nothing going on for it. Even if DVC gold pass comes back, resale is the obvious option for most people for years.

Something people actually want direct would sell out instantly, like DL tower will, with or without resale restrictions. I’d buy Star Wars hotel right now, no question.

 

[Suzabella]

Valid points. When we added on....again....we wanted a Epcot area resort. RIV wasn't even a consideration because of the restrictions.

 

[mtalken]

We're in the process of closing on a contract now and I think it really just matters where you're buying and what Disney is buying back at the moment (it also depends on waiting out the right contract from the right broker, since some brokers are obviously inflating prices, great for sellers, not so much for buyers)

We were able to get our BLT contract at $158, and I know there was a $151 that went through recently too. At $158 vs. the $245 for direct, we paid 64.5% of what we'd have paid for the same points direct.

That said, it seems like they were on a kick of buying back anything SSR or AKL (as well as a few OKWs) that really has changed the floor on what you're likely to be able to get. Suddenly if you have to pay $135 for SSR, it might be worth looking at what the long-term benefits would be if you assume AP and merch discounts, with SSR being (I think?) 170. I also agree with another post I saw here that really points out that with Riviera being the only real direct option that's new and at WDW, that might be hindering WDW's sales there and maybe that's part of why they're buying up so many points from older resorts--maybe a lot of people are asking to buy direct but simply aren't interested in Riviera?

 

[RaymOOOnd]

The “problem” is the natural result of RIV restrictions and no new construction. RIV won’t sell out for years, maybe Aulani will never sell out, and there’s nothing planned except a small VGF building.

Direct has nothing going on for it. Even if DVC gold pass comes back, resale is the obvious option for most people for years.

Something people actually want direct would sell out instantly, like DL tower will, with or without resale restrictions. I’d buy Star Wars hotel right now, no question.

So if I understand you, resale prices are so high simply because the offerings are better than the current deals + properties (with restrictions) being sold direct by Disney? I believe that's true to an extent but I also think that people are forward-looking enough to realize their current resale purchases won't be able to book any future resorts. I would expect that to counter the rise in resale prices at least partially, especially considering a likely inability to stay at future reimagined Epcot resorts after expiration of BCV and BWV etc on resale.

I still think there is an unfortunate FOMO (fear of missing out) i.e. rushing into an opportunity once it's no longer an actual opportunity psychological phenomenon.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I just visited a few of the resale sites, I think they finally pushed prices beyond their limits. Many resale contracts across all resorts now say reduced - and at that they are not moving.

I agree with previous poster about RIV not moving as fast as it should. It is a gorgeous resort but those restrictions!! I am certain I am not the only one who has been kept away because of them. I think to buy RIV you need to really want RIV it cannot be an impulse buy. I think we may see a large dive in RIV resale prices in the near future when impulse newbies try to sell their contracts and inventory exceeds demand. Right now inventory for RIV resale is low because there is not many contracts out there which keeps prices on the higher side.

 

[Lee Matthews]

UK Vloggers are funny ones. They buy into DVC but at like 100 points with the intention to bank and borrow, so no need for an annual pass probably. They all seem to end up with Riviera because that’s what Disney are pushing but seem oblivious to the resale restrictions.

I think if they really looked properly at resale and how often they plan to go, it would make a lot more sense to go that route.

My Disney friends seem to think I’m a millionaire with 320 points over 2 resorts but 30-40% discount over direct is a hefty saving. (Dues aside)

 

[Sandisw]

I just visited a few of the resale sites, I think they finally pushed prices beyond their limits. Many resale contracts across all resorts now say reduced - and at that they are not moving.

I agree with previous poster about RIV not moving as fast as it should. It is a gorgeous resort but those restrictions!! I am certain I am not the only one who has been kept away because of them. I think to buy RIV you need to really want RIV it cannot be an impulse buy. I think we may see a large dive in RIV resale prices in the near future when impulse newbies try to sell their contracts and inventory exceeds demand. Right now inventory for RIV resale is low because there is not many contracts out there which keeps prices on the higher side.

The only problem right now is that we really have no idea how the pandemic is impacting sales overall and of course, RIV.

Prior, it was doing fine. The numbers have not been great post pandemic, but they are decent given the current climate.

In terms of resale RIV, I think it will take quite a few years to see the supply outweigh the demand to impact the price.

People love the resort and it is popular and I think people are willing to pay for it, even with the restrictions in place.

I think when we see VGF go on sale and we are another year down the road, then I think we can make more assumptions regarding RIV.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The only problem right now is that we really have no idea how the pandemic is impacting sales overall and of course, RIV.

Prior, it was doing fine. The numbers have not been great post pandemic, but they are decent given the current climate.

In terms of resale RIV, I think it will take quite a few years to see the supply outweigh the demand to impact the price.

People love the resort and it is popular and I think people are willing to pay for it, even with the restrictions in place.

I think when we see VGF go on sale and we are another year down the road, then I think we can make more assumptions regarding RIV.

I don’t think the Riviera resale price is going to go down. People love it, and they’re going to want to stay there. Also, I’m not sure another brand new DVC resort is going to happen anytime soon. And even when it does, there’s no guarantee that either it’s location or design will win over people who are otherwise Riviera fans. Reflections was pretty boring.

 

[RoseGold]

So if I understand you, resale prices are so high simply because the offerings are better than the current deals + properties (with restrictions) being sold direct by Disney? I believe that's true to an extent but I also think that people are forward-looking enough to realize their current resale purchases won't be able to book any future resorts.

DVC is selling as much OKW/SSR direct as they are RIV. I think it’s safe to say that wasn’t the plan.

RIV is unappealing for many reasons: location, charts, resale restrictions, cost. The combination might just be more cash than most people want to commit to. If RIV were in the middle of DL, or an immersive Belle theme or something, it would be sold out, despite all of its issues.

To sell O14, and DVC is selling A LOT of it, Disney has to buy a bunch of ROFR, resale goes up, direct goes up more, and so it has gone for the last year. I don’t see it stopping unless the next build is reasonably priced, and I’m not holding my breath for that one.

 

[Hopfather28]

So I am certain somewhere in the threads this is answered but I don't know how to properly search apparently so I'll just ask it here by startomg a thread.

My friends would like to experience DVC and I own. I do not have enough points to cover 2 accomodations (we want to vacation together) but I feel like them renting would be more difficult thane getting points transferred and then booking the rooms with my points and the transferred points.

My question is 2 fold: 1) am I mistaken in this belief that it would be easier for me just to take care of it all in one fell swoop? 2) If the number of points I get transferred are not exact to the number used for the reservation could I use them interchangeably with those points in my own contract? That is to say if say it is 180 point reservation and I can get 150 transferred can I just use my extra 30 points left in my own contract to supplement or if it's a take all 200 points but I only need 180 can I use the extra 20 with my own points and then bank my own 20 leftover that I didn't need to use.

DVC is selling as much OKW/SSR direct as they are RIV. I think it’s safe to say that wasn’t the plan.

RIV is unappealing for many reasons: location, charts, resale restrictions, cost. The combination might just be more cash than most people want to commit to. If RIV were in the middle of DL, or an immersive Belle theme or something, it would be sold out, despite all of its issues.

To sell O14, and DVC is selling A LOT of it, Disney has to buy a bunch of ROFR, resale goes up, direct goes up more, and so it has gone for the last year. I don’t see it stopping unless the next build is reasonably priced, and I’m not holding my breath for that one.

I think this is pretty spot on. RIV is beautiful. And it's placed in a spot where if you want to travel to a park in the mid afternoon in the summer... you're on a bus because the skyliner is down with lightning. The points charts are ridiculously high which means they have more points to sell which is why I doubt you'll see it sell out anytime soon. Even if you eliminate the resale restrictions I think it's a hard sell because it's a deluxe resort in a moderate resort location.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think the Riviera resale price is going to go down. People love it, and they’re going to want to stay there. Also, I’m not sure another brand new DVC resort is going to happen anytime soon. And even when it does, there’s no guarantee that either it’s location or design will win over people who are otherwise Riviera fans. Reflections was pretty boring.

I actually agree that RIV will hold a higher price than most think.

I myself paid $152/pt for mine. High side but it was exactly what I was going to by direct at $195.

But, I still think we need to wait a few more years before we see where it will settle for average. It’s a wonderful resort and people do love it!

 

[Sandisw]

I think this is pretty spot on. RIV is beautiful. And it's placed in a spot where if you want to travel to a park in the mid afternoon in the summer... you're on a bus because the skyliner is down with lightning. The points charts are ridiculously high which means they have more points to sell which is why I doubt you'll see it sell out anytime soon. Even if you eliminate the resale restrictions I think it's a hard sell because it's a deluxe resort in a moderate resort location.

Well, RIV charts are in line with VGF and BLT. It’s an absolutely beautiful resort and being next to a moderate doesn’t change that for most.

Been there several times, including summer twice and didn’t experience one outage for Skyliner. I know it goes down for storms, but the reality is it’s not a daily aconstant thing.

I get some people are not a fan, but I’d bet people are buying places like OKW and SSR..which I do not think the numbers support are selling direct at the same rate as RIV..because the difference between resale and direct is much less now and you get unrestricted points and the blue card.

No question they are less than RIV for those going with just the 150, no question they have more friendly charts, and no question they are lower in dues.

I am waiting for us to see the July sales to see if having crowded parks had an impact on the sales.

It will also be interesting, as I say, to see how things go when VGF goes for sale.

ETA: 66k June RiV, compared to 36k OKW/SSR combined… so direct buyers are still chosong RIV over those sold out resorts

 

[heynowirv]

I think prices went up during covid because there was a lot of stimulus money pumped out. Many people got checks who were still working and did not need them so there was lots of extra money. Also there were less contracts available. I think now that things have somewhat normalized we will see how it plays out and where resale ends up. There are alot of resale contracts out there now and many are not moving

I'd like to know who those people are.Those stimulus checks might've helped people pay bills, but not buy DVC. And I can't imagine anyone who could spend 20,000 on Disney did either.
On another note,I had been tracking BWV for a couple of years when in July 2020 we found a 150 point contract that we bought for 110.pp.Now I see you can't touch it for less than 130.pp