Personally, I think this has FAR less to do with controlling the rental market, as it does to help ensure that people who are currently buying SSR can stay at other resorts. Now, don't flame me for this....I have a "bird" (not my guide...someone else) who told me that
DVC doesn't really care about the rental market...point are points. DVC has just received so many complaints by recent SSR purchasers who were told that they could "stay wherever they want" who have NOT been able to do so, that DVC felt they needed to make sure that these SSR owners could be able to stay other places.
When you think about it. These changes certainly make SSR a much better place to buy. The biggest change we will see from these "enforcements" is a change in availability at resorts. Since "big-time renters" cannot transfer in a large number of points to rent out, fewer rooms will be taken up by them, and more rooms will be available to owners.
I think the other people who will benefit from this will be BWV owners. I think standard view and BW view rooms will be the ONLY rooms that you will still need to book before the 7 month window opens...all other rooms at all other resorts (even the GV's at OKW) will be MUCH easier to get...my BCV's included!!
The downside to this may be that if DVC can boost sales of SSR, and feel that they can "open up" availability at other DVC resorts, that decreases the chance that the next resort will be the Contemporary, and increases the chances that EP may come back to the table. And, we will have another condo-style mega complex not associated with a park....a style that I think has been shown to not be the "preferred resort" of the majority of DVC owners. And then, we will be back to "no availability" at the smaller resorts.
Personally, I grieve for the loss of flexibility with my points. I think this is going to create havoc on the rental board, and we will se a lot more "negotiation" in price of transfers (i.e. if you can find someone who has something CLOSE to the number of points you are looking for (but, actually has too many)), the cost per point may go WAY up. If you have to buy a LOT more points from that person, you will certainly try to negotiate for a lower price. I also think that people who rent will have a "perceived" loss of control, so "three way calls" to MS might become much more popular.
So, the question is....will there be significantly fewer points on the rental market, thus causing rental prices to go up? Or, will there be fewer people looking to rent, thus causing the prices to drop? Only time will tell.....
The truth of the matter is that MOST DVC owners have no clue what possibilities exist for manipulation of their points. We have all heard stories of how many points get wasted by owners every year. For the MAJORITY of DVC owners, this will have no effect at all....it is just us "Diser's" who will notice a big difference.
However, I am REALLY glad now that I sold 150 BCV points earlier in the year. There are a LOT of times that 540 points was too many for my family. I bought knowing I could transfer or rent....it is still too early to tell how those markets will be affected. But, for us....390 is a much more "manageable" number.
I also think that we should learn to be be "borrowers" of points. I think we should all try to make sure that we are a few points into next year's allocation to prevent wasting any points (this is if you cannot bank early enough). Availability should be better, so last minute trips should be easier.
However, another big question is how these changes will affect resale prices...at least in the "short term"? I wonder if people who have routinely found themselves with "extra" points at the end of every year will put small contracts up for sale? How will that affect the price? And, ROFR? And, then how will that affect the waitlist for points? Maybe that waitlist will open up?
These effects could be fleeting, or they could have a rippling effect in many areas....really, only time will tell.
Where's my

? I'm settling in to watch the show!!
Beca