That is what I have been wondering as well, and I've followed the entire thread and not seen that answered yet.
We are booked at Poly 11/27-12/4. We have never traveled to Disney when there was a discount available, so this part of the planning is new to me. Assuming the op is on target about the fd, I don't know whether to think there will be plenty of availability at Poly if I call first thing Wednesday morning (or whenever it becomes available). Or is it likely that enough people will jump on the discount with new web reservations before the phone lines are open and I'll be blocked out when I call at 7:00?

Anyone with any insight on this? I'd hate to have to change resorts but I might hate to miss out on a discount even more. I am perfectly willing to make two reservations and cancel one though.
Crossing my fingers that Disney Visa holders will get first dibs so I don't have to worry about it.