New 8/25 Direct Price Incentives?

[julie-o]

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Where did you find this chart? Is this for existing members or also new members? This looks way better than the discount we got earlier this week. Wondering if there is some way to have it apply to our purchase.

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

Suppose we can expect Aug direct sales numbers to favor VGF over RIV? That's a pretty big difference in incentive pricing for the two resorts. Although, perhaps it has more to do with number of points to sell at each?

We are looking to add on 50 or fewer points, so we'll go VGF or resale, but those 100 pt incentives would sway me toward RIV if I was getting a 100 PT contract.

 

[eticketplease]

Where did you find this chart? Is this for existing members or also new members? This looks way better than the discount we got earlier this week. Wondering if there is some way to have it apply to our purchase.

If it was this week remember you have 10 days that you can cancel your contract. I would call your guide.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

You think the price for riviera resale will drop below $100/point?

I do. I see a lot of RIV resale on the market and the resort is no where near being sold out. I think over the next ten years, the resorts with restrictions will be hit the hardest on resale, after that not as certain. If supply far exceeds demand then yes, I do think we will see prices under 100. Unless, Disney implements an exchange fee - then I see things stabilizing. Otherwise - this is just my opinion - i think resale on the whole will be a brand new ball park.
I am not attacking RIV - I think it is a beautiful resort. I just don't understand why disney opted for restrictions. While I am sure there will be some who buy and plan to use their points exclusively at RIV, as new resorts are built, it becomes desirable to try other resorts too. I have been watching the resale market and it seems more and more are coming on resale. there are almost as many RIV as there are PVD - and again RIV is no where near being sold out. This is just my opinion.

 

[kboo]

I feel very strongly that Grand Cal hotel side is better than VGC if you do studios, and at VGC pricing, you might as well just pay cash.

That's a good point. What about 1BR? We only stayed 2 nights in a studio because it was Magic Season or whatever they called it, and we had rented/transferred points. But if we bought points we'd probably use for short-fish (autocorrect) stays while visiting family. A 1br would accommodate my family of 4 comfortably, and a 2BR would include Grandpa and/or a cousin (or two)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That's a good point. What about 1BR? We only stayed 2 nights in a studio because it was Magic Season or whatever they called it, and we had rented/transferred points. But if we bought points we'd probably use for short-fish (autocorrect) stays while visiting family. A 1br would accommodate my family of 4 comfortably, and a 2BR would include Grandpa and/or a cousin (or two)

Unless you're going to use the kitchen, I'd do two hotel rooms or two studios rather than a 1BR.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

Unless you're going to use the kitchen, I'd do two hotel rooms or two studios rather than a 1BR.

I know that price-wise it is less efficient but I like that the 1 BD have a dedicated space to spend time in as a family that doesn’t involve sitting on beds. It just feels more comfortable to me. Plus we end up putting stuff out out on the kitchen island and the table.

 

[eticketplease]

I know that price-wise it is less efficient but I like that the 1 BD have a dedicated space to spend time in as a family that doesn’t involve sitting on beds. It just feels more comfortable to me. Plus we end up putting stuff out out on the kitchen island and the table.

I totally agree with you. I prefer not to sit on a bed if possible and it is nice to set things out on the Kitchen countertop or island. The Washer and Dryer is the biggest factor on why we usually grab the larger accommodations. We seem to do laundry every day and even have a drying rack stored in our owners locker.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

I totally agree with you. I prefer not to sit on a bed if possible and it is nice to set things out on the Kitchen countertop or island. The Washer and Dryer is the biggest factor on why we usually grab the larger accommodations. We seem to do laundry every day and even have a drying rack stored in our owners locker.

How could I forget the washer and dryer??? I swear I do laundry every other day while I’m at Disney.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I do not think you will ever see RIV below $100 unless you see the same thing for BLT, CCV and PVB.

People love the resort enough that they are buying it inspite if them. Just like you self impose restrictions for your BCV points, those of us who feel the same way about RIV don’t care about the restrictions because we are doing the same thing.

And when VDH comes out with them..and I think Poly tower will too..the resale price will stabilize.

Deals for direct are decent and the one thing you know is you can use them anywhere.

@Sandisw What are your thoughts on the theory that over time, as RIV points get sold and converted to resale points, all those RIV only points competing for rooms will make it hard to book, even at 11 months?

RIV is my fall back plan if I end up not liking Poly2 as much as I think I will or they keep it in the same association. I would buy direct so I don't care about the restrictions, but I do worry they could make booking hard down the road. IMO since it's not even sold out yet, it would take a long time (10+ years at least) for there to be enough resale points out there to cause an issue, if ever.

 

[Sandisw]

@Sandisw What are your thoughts on the theory that over time, as RIV points get sold and converted to resale points, all those RIV only points competing for rooms will make it hard to book, even at 11 months?

RIV is my fall back plan if I end up not liking Poly2 as much as I think I will or they keep it in the same association. I would buy direct so I don't care about the restrictions, but I do worry they could make booking hard down the road. IMO since it's not even sold out yet, it would take a long time (10+ years at least) for there to be enough resale points out there to cause an issue, if ever.

I think that the 11 month booking at RIV will be similar to most of the resorts 11 months bookings when you consider SV rooms. Those are difficult now, especially studios, and there are very few resale points out there. But, BLT and BWV have the same issue with SV rooms, and there are no "resale restrictions". CCV has the issue with studios many times of the year...due to so many cabin points and not enough studios...and there are no restrictions.

So, I don't think that resale points will play a role for those booking during the home resort period, and that PV will always be an option well into the window..

Once RIV is sold out, 6 million points, even a 1% turnover from original owners to resale is 60,000 points a year. IMO, even if that holds true, it would be 20 years before you saw maybe 20% of the points restricted...meaning 80% can still trade out.

Where I do think you could see the impacts is at the 7 month mark for those wanting to trade in...resale owners can't go anywhere so the number of rooms opened up then will become less.

Obviously, anyone that has resale points will need to book at 11 months and will have a lot less flexibility to use points if they have to change or cancel.

I have also said this as well...points only become resale once...once the original owner sells, that contract is now in the resale pile. If that resale owner sells it again, it doesn't change the % of resale points in the pile. You will also have ROFR and foreclosure points DVD takes back with puts them back into the direct pile....while that won't necessarily be an even swap, the point is that there will be some back and forth.

For example, I bought 125 resale RIV points in 2021...if I decide in 10 years to sell those, the only change is who owns them, but doesn't change the number of resale points. And, I do think that as time goes on, and more resorts have them...nothing to me suggests they are going to abandon them, including for Poly tower....I think you will simply see the trading to become harder, but not home resort bookings.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I think that the 11 month booking at RIV will be similar to most of the resorts 11 months bookings when you consider SV rooms. Those are difficult now, especially studios, and there are very few resale points out there. But, BLT and BWV have the same issue with SV rooms, and there are no "resale restrictions". CCV has the issue with studios many times of the year...due to so many cabin points and not enough studios...and there are no restrictions.

So, I don't think that resale points will play a role for those booking during the home resort period, and that PV will always be an option well into the window..

Once RIV is sold out, 6 million points, even a 1% turnover from original owners to resale is 60,000 points a year. IMO, even if that holds true, it would be 20 years before you saw maybe 20% of the points restricted...meaning 80% can still trade out.

Where I do think you could see the impacts is at the 7 month mark for those wanting to trade in...resale owners can't go anywhere so the number of rooms opened up then will become less.

Obviously, anyone that has resale points will need to book at 11 months and will have a lot less flexibility to use points if they have to change or cancel.

I have also said this as well...points only become resale once...once the original owner sells, that contract is now in the resale pile. If that resale owner sells it again, it doesn't change the % of resale points in the pile. You will also have ROFR and foreclosure points DVD takes back with puts them back into the direct pile....while that won't necessarily be an even swap, the point is that there will be some back and forth.

For example, I bought 125 resale RIV points in 2021...if I decide in 10 years to sell those, the only change is who owns them, but doesn't change the number of resale points. And, I do think that as time goes on, and more resorts have them...nothing to me suggests they are going to abandon them, including for Poly tower....I think you will simply see the trading to become harder, but not home resort bookings.

Interesting, that makes sense. I wasn't sure what the total number of points RIV will have. Seems it would take even longer than I thought for there to be a high number of resale points out there.

I'm curious how many points get converted to resale over time. Is there any way to know the percentage of points that are now resale for the older 2042 resorts? I've read that SSR is the most bought and sold timeshare in the world, not sure if it's true though.

 

[RichVIII]

I think that the 11 month booking at RIV will be similar to most of the resorts 11 months bookings when you consider SV rooms. Those are difficult now, especially studios, and there are very few resale points out there. But, BLT and BWV have the same issue with SV rooms, and there are no "resale restrictions". CCV has the issue with studios many times of the year...due to so many cabin points and not enough studios...and there are no restrictions.

So, I don't think that resale points will play a role for those booking during the home resort period, and that PV will always be an option well into the window..

Once RIV is sold out, 6 million points, even a 1% turnover from original owners to resale is 60,000 points a year. IMO, even if that holds true, it would be 20 years before you saw maybe 20% of the points restricted...meaning 80% can still trade out.

Where I do think you could see the impacts is at the 7 month mark for those wanting to trade in...resale owners can't go anywhere so the number of rooms opened up then will become less.

Obviously, anyone that has resale points will need to book at 11 months and will have a lot less flexibility to use points if they have to change or cancel.

I have also said this as well...points only become resale once...once the original owner sells, that contract is now in the resale pile. If that resale owner sells it again, it doesn't change the % of resale points in the pile. You will also have ROFR and foreclosure points DVD takes back with puts them back into the direct pile....while that won't necessarily be an even swap, the point is that there will be some back and forth.

For example, I bought 125 resale RIV points in 2021...if I decide in 10 years to sell those, the only change is who owns them, but doesn't change the number of resale points. And, I do think that as time goes on, and more resorts have them...nothing to me suggests they are going to abandon them, including for Poly tower....I think you will simply see the trading to become harder, but not home resort bookings.

I agree and also add that with resorts such as BCV and BWV, most people are buying (now) not to swap and use their 11-month booking window. So 7months does seem like it will get even harder as time goes on. So at what point is the product completely changed? Even if you buy direct but can't ever change at 7 months does that impact the valuable proposition for new members (or will they never know until they start to try)?

 

[Nursemanit]

I agree and also add that with resorts such as BCV and BWV, most people are buying (now) not to swap and use their 11-month booking window. So 7months does seem like it will get even harder as time goes on. So at what point is the product completely changed? Even if you buy direct but can't ever change at 7 months does that impact the valuable proposition for new members (or will they never know until they start to try)?

RR only have to worry until nearer to 2042 then the whole game changes. In the short term RR could better reflect reality and shift a point or so from PV to SV ( they could even make them equal) and the 11 month crunch would be smoothed out.

 

[hglenn]

I agree and also add that with resorts such as BCV and BWV, most people are buying (now) not to swap and use their 11-month booking window. So 7months does seem like it will get even harder as time goes on. So at what point is the product completely changed? Even if you buy direct but can't ever change at 7 months does that impact the valuable proposition for new members (or will they never know until they start to try)?

I'd say it will definitely impact the SAP concept. Buying where you want to stay - regardless of direct or resale will be even more important. I think it's a ways off but I agree that eventually it will play a bigger role than it does now. We bought BWV and do not plan to stay anywhere else with those points so unless something comes up we are booking at 11 months with full intentions of using them there. Will likely buy at Poly2 down the road with the same plan.

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting, that makes sense. I wasn't sure what the total number of points RIV will have. Seems it would take even longer than I thought for there to be a high number of resale points out there.

I'm curious how many points get converted to resale over time. Is there any way to know the percentage of points that are now resale for the older 2042 resorts? I've read that SSR is the most bought and sold timeshare in the world, not sure if it's true though.

What I have read over the years is that the typical resort will end up with 10 to 20% of resale points. Now, as we are getting closing to the 2042 resorts, that number could be getting higher as those that bought originally want to get out before the value completely falls.

But, as mentioned, we also have people who are buying now with the full intention of using there as though they are restricted.

In terms of SSR, I haven't heard that. But, I also wonder if a lot of the SSR turnover is resale buyer to resale buyer and not necessarily an original owner...so, it would be hard to know. It would require someone to look up the seller of an SSR contract to see if they bought it from DVD or resale.

Now, take all the ROFR SSR points in the last year and those points are no longer in the % of resale points, but moved back to the % of directly owned points.

 

[tjkraz]

@Sandisw What are your thoughts on the theory that over time, as RIV points get sold and converted to resale points, all those RIV only points competing for rooms will make it hard to book, even at 11 months?

I don't know that it will be significantly different than other resorts. Don't most people book a Home resort at 11 months if they've chosen their travel dates that far in advance?

One factor that I think may come into play with Riviera is a lower resale volume. If nothing else, the restrictions may prompt owners of multiple resorts to sell other properties instead. For instance, if I have points at AKV, SSR and RVA and want to reduce my ownership, the resale restrictions make it more advantageous to sell AKV or SSR.

No way of predicting how much that will factor move the needle, but it definitely gives sellers and added consideration which didn't previously exist.

 

[Royal Consort]

I agree and also add that with resorts such as BCV and BWV, most people are buying (now) not to swap and use their 11-month booking window. So 7months does seem like it will get even harder as time goes on. So at what point is the product completely changed? Even if you buy direct but can't ever change at 7 months does that impact the valuable proposition for new members (or will they never know until they start to try)?

You're witnessing the change, it's happening right now. DVC booking availability today is not like DVC booking 10 years ago. The changes are incremental. What point has the product completely changed? Now! And it will keep doing so into the future.

I'd say it will definitely impact the SAP concept. Buying where you want to stay - regardless of direct or resale will be even more important. I think it's a ways off but I agree that eventually it will play a bigger role than it does now.

It's the future of DVC. The trading component will will still be there but without home resort priority your chances are going to be much lower. I bought each of my contracts with that in mind with little interest in using any as SAP.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't know that it will be significantly different than other resorts. Don't most people book a Home resort at 11 months if they've chosen their travel dates that far in advance?

One factor that I think may come into play with Riviera is a lower resale volume. If nothing else, the restrictions may prompt owners of multiple resorts to sell other properties instead. For instance, if I have points at AKV, SSR and RVA and want to reduce my ownership, the resale restrictions make it more advantageous to sell AKV or SSR.

No way of predicting how much that will factor move the needle, but it definitely gives sellers and added consideration which didn't previously exist.

This is us, We said that RIV would be the last to go...just in case it’s value is lower.

 

[BeachClub2014]

It's the future of DVC. The trading component will will still be there but without home resort priority your chances are going to be much lower. I bought each of my contracts with that in mind with little interest in using any as SAP.

This is a great point and reinforces the old mantra of "buy where you want to stay". If the predictions of increasing difficulty in trading into non-home resorts hold true, then there are going to be a lot of owners of "SAP" that are going to be unhappy.

We bought BCV points to use solely at Beach Club. We have Riviera points that we use there and at other resorts. We also bought OKW(E) points because we love the resort and in 2042, those points are going to be like gold with another 15 years to go and a fantastic points chart.

Buy where you want to stay!