New 8/25 Direct Price Incentives?

[Sandisw]

This is a great point and reinforces the old mantra of "buy where you want to stay". If the predictions of increasing difficulty in trading into non-home resorts hold true, then there are going to be a lot of owners of "SAP" that are going to be unhappy.

We bought BCV points to use solely at Beach Club. We have Riviera points that we use there and at other resorts. We also bought OKW(E) points because we love the resort and in 2042, those points are going to be like gold with another 15 years to go and a fantastic points chart.

Buy where you want to stay!

Very true! We are down to 300 points at SSR that we use as SAP,,but to be honest we just them to upgrade room size..like doing the RIV GV in January!!!

But, if Poly tower comes out as a new association there is a good chance we sell and buy points there and add ion more RIV. similar to what I just did for VGF.

 

[tjkraz]

This is a great point and reinforces the old mantra of "buy where you want to stay". If the predictions of increasing difficulty in trading into non-home resorts hold true, then there are going to be a lot of owners of "SAP" that are going to be unhappy.

The challenge is framing those "predictions" in any meaningful fashion.

There will always be owners who are unable to book their home at 11 months. Certain dates and room types are more popular than others, but we'll never be in a situation where BCV (to pick one resort) has zero availability year-round at 7 months. New resorts add more owners to the program. So one could argue that there are more people than ever jockeying to book BCV at 7 mos. However, those owners bring new resorts which themselves hold appeal. There are people who 10 years ago may have preferred BCV, VGF or BWV who are now very interested in booking Riviera or Copper Creek at 7 mos.

The greatest shift in habits seemed to occur about 10-15 years ago when SSR and AKV added millions of new points to the system, but those owners tended to favor the likes of BCV, BWV and OKW (cheap). That really started the pattern of all owners booking sooner, and the resultant decline in short notice availability. Eventually everyone hopped on the bandwagon, and even SSR became harder to come by on short notice.

Any trends we may see today are clearly tainted by 2+ years of covid travel restrictions, point extensions and now the removal of the 50% borrowing limit. Basing future assumptions on 2022 DVC availability may lead to suspect results. There will continue to be a lot of 7 month booking success. But as always, results will vary depending upon the dates, resort and room type targeted. Not to mention, people are bound to have different results if they are online at 8:00am vs 8:05am.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

The challenge is framing those "predictions" in any meaningful fashion.

There will always be owners who are unable to book their home at 11 months. Certain dates and room types are more popular than others, but we'll never be in a situation where BCV (to pick one resort) has zero availability year-round at 7 months. New resorts add more owners to the program. So one could argue that there are more people than ever jockeying to book BCV at 7 mos. However, those owners bring new resorts which themselves hold appeal. There are people who 10 years ago may have preferred BCV, VGF or BWV who are now very interested in booking Riviera or Copper Creek at 7 mos.

The greatest shift in habits seemed to occur about 10-15 years ago when SSR and AKV added millions of new points to the system, but those owners tended to favor the likes of BCV, BWV and OKW (cheap). That really started the pattern of all owners booking sooner, and the resultant decline in short notice availability. Eventually everyone hopped on the bandwagon, and even SSR became harder to come by on short notice.

Any trends we may see today are clearly tainted by 2+ years of covid travel restrictions, point extensions and now the removal of the 50% borrowing limit. Basing future assumptions on 2022 DVC availability may lead to suspect results. There will continue to be a lot of 7 month booking success. But as always, results will vary depending upon the dates, resort and room type targeted. Not to mention, people are bound to have different results if they are online at 8:00am vs 8:05am.

Yep. Just yesterday at 7 months, I switched to VGF in a 2BR LO for a week in March at exactly 8AM. After I got my confirmation, I checked the same room availability for my days and only 3 days were available. It was no later than 8:01 or at most 8:02.

 

[Nursemanit]

Yep. Just yesterday at 7 months, I switched to VGF in a 2BR LO for a week in March at exactly 8AM. After I got my confirmation, I checked the same room availability for my days and only 3 days were available. It was no later than 8:01 or at most 8:02.

I got a last min 3 day stint at VGF last week for next week deluxe studio SV

VGC and BCV and CC are your not gonna get studio resorts

BWV / BLT / RR are your not gonna get SV studio resorts

I had 1 to 2 day options for PV type studios at all of the rest ( including Savana view AK and Lake BLT + Poly)

 

[DVCsloth]

We book right at 11 months out. I will check what is available at 7 months if we want to try a different resort or upgrade to a bigger room using non-home resort points. Sometimes I check availability just over 30 days out if we want to add a day or so. After 30 days it really tightens up. Either way, I always have my time locked in at 11 months so we don't get shut out. We used to book early December studios at VGF and CCV, but both of them are walked so bad we don't go at that time anymore.

 

[DVCsloth]

If anyone were considering Riviera, now looks like a good time to buy. 200 points and up looks pretty good.

 

[BeachClub2014]

The challenge is framing those "predictions" in any meaningful fashion.

There will always be owners who are unable to book their home at 11 months. Certain dates and room types are more popular than others, but we'll never be in a situation where BCV (to pick one resort) has zero availability year-round at 7 months. New resorts add more owners to the program. So one could argue that there are more people than ever jockeying to book BCV at 7 mos. However, those owners bring new resorts which themselves hold appeal. There are people who 10 years ago may have preferred BCV, VGF or BWV who are now very interested in booking Riviera or Copper Creek at 7 mos.

The greatest shift in habits seemed to occur about 10-15 years ago when SSR and AKV added millions of new points to the system, but those owners tended to favor the likes of BCV, BWV and OKW (cheap). That really started the pattern of all owners booking sooner, and the resultant decline in short notice availability. Eventually everyone hopped on the bandwagon, and even SSR became harder to come by on short notice.

Any trends we may see today are clearly tainted by 2+ years of covid travel restrictions, point extensions and now the removal of the 50% borrowing limit. Basing future assumptions on 2022 DVC availability may lead to suspect results. There will continue to be a lot of 7 month booking success. But as always, results will vary depending upon the dates, resort and room type targeted. Not to mention, people are bound to have different results if they are online at 8:00am vs 8:05am.

There are certainly many variables that affect the availability of rooms outside the home resort priority window, you'll get no argument from me on that point.

To your point though, as new resorts come online and add additional owners, we may see more pressure exerted on some resorts over another. I think that's definitely been the case with Beach Club. 7-month availability there can be pretty slim pickings most of the year and if BCV owners, such as ourselves, won't use those points at other resorts then that may keep the availability for non-BCV owners a little thin. I think we are seeing that now. Many people bemoan the restrictions that DVC created on resale points at Riviera, but it sure seems like we owners are more or less doing the same at some resorts, like BCV. But, hey, I could be wrong. That's just my idle speculation over coffee on a Sunday morning.

 

[BeachClub2014]

We book right at 11 months out. I will check what is available at 7 months if we want to try a different resort or upgrade to a bigger room using non-home resort points. Sometimes I check availability just over 30 days out if we want to add a day or so. After 30 days it really tightens up. Either way, I always have my time locked in at 11 months so we don't get shut out. We used to book early December studios at VGF and CCV, but both of them are walked so bad we don't go at that time anymore.

I think this is an approach that many owners use. Lock in what you really need/want within the home-resort window and then explore other options at 7 months. That flexibility is a great thing, overall. The challenge is always if you're seeking a "low" point room, or particular view, at a premium resort during a busy period of the calendar. That availability at 7-months can be pretty slim.

ETA: That's why I still argue that an owner is best served by buying where they want to stay.

 

[tjkraz]

To your point though, as new resorts come online and add additional owners, we may see more pressure exerted on some resorts over another. I think that's definitely been the case with Beach Club. 7-month availability there can be pretty slim pickings most of the year and if BCV owners, such as ourselves, won't use those points at other resorts then that may keep the availability for non-BCV owners a little thin. I think we are seeing that now.

More owners potentially increases demand for older resorts. And more resort options reduces demand for older locations. Both things are true.

The popularity of BCV is unquestioned. Other resorts have seen their popularity ebb and flow in response to a variety of circumstances. If we go back about 15 years, BWV was at least a top 2 resort for the vast majority of members. Today, I hope we agree it’s been leapfrogged by newer resorts in the minds of many owners.

BLT was very high demand for at least 3-4 years as the only Monorail resort. Now the likes of GF, Poly and even Riviera have absorbed a portion of that demand.

Many people seem to prefer Copper Creek over Boulder Ridge.

No, there is no way to quantify member demand. But it’s more complicated than assuming that more members = universally higher demand for every older property. Every resort addition represents new options, prompting all owners to reevaluate how they want to use their points.

 

[BeachClub2014]

No, there is no way to quantify member demand. But it’s more complicated than assuming that more members = universally higher demand for every older property. Every resort addition represents new options, prompting all owners to reevaluate how they want to use their points.

Although not a perfect method to quantify member demand, how quickly the more sought-after resorts fill up at either the 11-month or 7-month mark is certainly an indicator.

I do understand that it is more complicated than simply assuming that more members = universally higher demand for every older property and don't believe I was inferring that. I was speaking specifically about Beach Club, and the scarcity there at seven months is hard to argue. I don't think there is much that is "universal" about DVC at all. If what we read here on the DIS has merit, there are many owners frustrated by 7-month availability at other resorts, as well.

The other "X-Factor" is that if DVC holds true to the restrictions on the new resorts model, ala Riviera, then that will have an impact. Those owners who buy directly can use their points at other resorts while non-grandfathered resale owners won't. That availability doesn't work both ways.

At any rate, I certainly cannot predict the future, but it sure will be interesting to see.

 

[Scrub0bk]

Sorry for bumping an old thread, but did pricing change now even though the date is staying the same? The website is showing $11 off 150 at RIV vs $18 in the pics earlier. Am I in the wrong spot?

 

[Sandisw]

Sorry for bumping an old thread, but did pricing change now even though the date is staying the same? The website is showing $11 off 150 at RIV vs $18 in the pics earlier. Am I in the wrong spot?

The $18 is current owners, but the $11 is for new members

 

[DimDim]

I am in the process of purchasing 200 points at RR will receive 200 points for 2021 and another 200 points for 2022 along with the discounts and Disney visa for 6 months 0 interest

 

[eticketplease]

I am in the process of purchasing 200 points at RR will receive 200 points for 2021 and another 200 points for 2022 along with the discounts and Disney visa for 6 months 0 interest

If you are getting an October or December use year then yes as they are still in the 2021 use year. If you close 10/1/2022 only the December use year would get you the double points.

 

[Sandisw]

If you are getting an October or December use year then yes as they are still in the 2021 use year. If you close 10/1/2022 only the December use year would get you the double points.

To clarify, it’s not when you close, but when contract is signed…so anyone signing before October 1st would qualify.

 

[Cfabar1]

I wonder if the incentives will be bigger after this. I’d think they might do a slightly bigger round for one or two more months, then slow around the holidays when everyone is going to Disney again.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder if the incentives will be bigger after this. I’d think they might do a slightly bigger round for one or two more months, then slow around the holidays when everyone is going to Disney again.

They have already released the incentives through mid November. The current ones end 10/12 but then reduce until 11/16.

So nothing new would be coming out before then.

 

[floridavet]

They have already released the incentives through mid November. The current ones end 10/12 but then reduce until 11/16.

So nothing new would be coming out before then.

Where can I find the incentives that run to 11/16?

 

[eticketplease]

Where can I find the incentives that run to 11/16?

That is a good question.

I only see the offers starting 8/25/22 ending on 10/12/22.

This is on both the member add-on site, https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/member-savings and the new member site, https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/savings

 

[Sandisw]

That is a good question.

I only see the offers starting 8/25/22 ending on 10/12/22.

This is on both the member add-on site, https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/member-savings and the new member site, https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/savings

www.dvcnews.com Go to current pricing.