May 2022 Direct Sales drop

[clarker99]

Honestly the resale restrictions don't bother me either

Says the person who just got 160pts for $118/pt

I would be fine buying resale at a good price point. Buying direct doesnt seem to appealing (high MF, resale restrictions) until they bring more DVC resorts online with similar restrictions and the only way to stay at those new resorts is to own direct points. GFV you get access to RIV and the other resorts and get a far better resale value. I realize no one plans to sell but stuff happens and you don't want to be the person selling your direct RIV points for $118/point

 

[The Jackal]

Not surprised to see a slow down. Also not surprised about VGF2 over RIV. Look what happens when you raise OKW and SSR to make RIV look great.

 

[havoc315]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...acation-club-direct-sales-slowing-in-may-2022

Still strong overall for DVD but given this was the first month where VGF and RIV went head to head with the same pool of buyers, DVD may finally have some info to see how the resorts do in the same market.

RIV dropped quite a bit and I’d have to say DVD had to be disappointed in that result since VGF performed so well

I think this data has to be sign that DVD can’t ignore in terms of possibly reversing restrictions?

II actually see the opposite -- 60k RIV vs 100k GFV -- Where RIV has been on sale for 3 years and GFV new sales just launched recently. To me, that's RIV holding up pretty darn well. I would have expected a much bigger gap.

In April, it was GFV 178k and RIV 93k.

So, in April: RIV sales were only 52% of GFV sales. In May, RIV sales were 60% of GFV sales: In other words, as you move past the initial surge of new buyers, the gap is closing.
Also in May -- GFV sales dropped 44%.... RIV sales dropped only 36%

Regardless of any re-sale restrictions, GFV is going to be selling better than RIV right now. As long as the pricing is close, the flagship monorail resort is of course going to be more sought after than a skyliner resort. (Yes, there are lots of people who would prefer the skyliner location but honestly, the majority still prefer the monorail location). And GFV just came on sale, RIV has been on sale for 3 years.
Considering these factors, RIV sales being 40% less than GFV sales isn't really surprising at all.

The best comparison -- the last time 2 WDW resorts had overlapping sales -- around July 2019. RIV was about a couple months into sales, CCV was still offering incentives: RIV was 108,675 vs 52,837 for CCV -- so CCV was 48% of RIV sales.

The newest resort always sells the most -- The question is, how well do the other resorts hold up.

 

[havoc315]

One can only hope

Looking at the seriously LOW numbers on OKW and SSR (lowest SSR sales in 12 year and fewest OKW points since 2017) it makes you wonder what in the world they are doing buying up all those points? Clearly the market is not responding to the new price point so what gives? Is it JUST to drive people to Direct? That doesn't seem to be working with these posted results. HMMMM

I have a suspicion Disney has started to put in some sort of long term plan for the 2042 resorts in particular. They are ROFRing a LOT of the 2042 resorts, and I can't believe there is that much direct demand for 2042.
In April, they bought back almost 70,000 points -- But in May, they only sold about 20,000 of those points.
What are they doing with all the points they are buying back??

I *suspect* they have a plan to gradually accumulate points as we get closer to 2042 -- I'm not exactly sure why. Maybe they want to own a big chunk of those resorts before 2042 with an eye towards owning enough of the resort to do major renovations even before 2042.

 

[hglenn]

The thing that bothers me the most about the RIV resale restrictions is that once RIV is sold out there will be a large number of resale points that can only be used at RIV forcing every one of them to book right at the 11 month mark. The rooms are going to be so competitive that even RIV owners who bought direct could have difficulty getting the room they want at their home resort because the resale owners will be forced to be so cut-throat on their reservations. If you buy RIV direct you may be forced to use them as SAP during certain periods of the year.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

The thing that bothers me the most about the RIV resale restrictions is that once RIV is sold out there will be a large number of resale points that can only be used at RIV forcing every one of them to book right at the 11 month mark. The rooms are going to be so competitive that even RIV owners who bought direct could have difficulty getting the room they want at their home resort because the resale owners will be forced to be so cut-throat on their reservations. If you buy RIV direct you may be forced to use them as SAP during certain periods of the year.

This will be somewhat offset by all the newer resale owners who can’t book at Riviera. But yes what you said will suck.

 

[RKS03]

Yes I’ve thought about this too- that resale restrictions hurt current owners, outside of potentially lower resale prices, because it will be harder to book at their own resorts within the exclusive booking period when some amount of owners can only book at that resort. It was one perk of buying VGF2, which may be the last one not to have these restrictions.

The fact that others may be restricted from booking at Rivieria won’t help availability at all in the exclusive booking period, unfortunately. Personally I’m unlikely to book exactly at 11 months so this mattered to me.

 

[havoc315]

The thing that bothers me the most about the RIV resale restrictions is that once RIV is sold out there will be a large number of resale points that can only be used at RIV forcing every one of them to book right at the 11 month mark. The rooms are going to be so competitive that even RIV owners who bought direct could have difficulty getting the room they want at their home resort because the resale owners will be forced to be so cut-throat on their reservations. If you buy RIV direct you may be forced to use them as SAP during certain periods of the year.

But -- don't overestimate the number of resale owners. It's a small portion of ownership, especially for the first 20 years.
Second -- most people planning a trip book their home resort in the exclusive window anyway, and then switch their reservation at 7 months. You'll just have a few less people switching out.
Third -- There will be far fewer people who can trade into the resort. So while the 7-11 month mark may be slightly more competitive, the 0-7 month mark will be LESS competitive, with more last minute availability.

 

[RamblinWreck]

The thing that bothers me the most about the RIV resale restrictions is that once RIV is sold out there will be a large number of resale points that can only be used at RIV forcing every one of them to book right at the 11 month mark. The rooms are going to be so competitive that even RIV owners who bought direct could have difficulty getting the room they want at their home resort because the resale owners will be forced to be so cut-throat on their reservations. If you buy RIV direct you may be forced to use them as SAP during certain periods of the year.

I think what you'll also see a lot more of is Riviera points going to waste. There will be many people who bought resale RIV points who don't plan far enough ahead and then never find a reservation that works for them. Especially if they try to book in the 7 month window, when all other direct owners of different resorts will snatch up remaining room availability.

 

[pianomanzano]

The thing that bothers me the most about the RIV resale restrictions is that once RIV is sold out there will be a large number of resale points that can only be used at RIV forcing every one of them to book right at the 11 month mark. The rooms are going to be so competitive that even RIV owners who bought direct could have difficulty getting the room they want at their home resort because the resale owners will be forced to be so cut-throat on their reservations. If you buy RIV direct you may be forced to use them as SAP during certain periods of the year.

We thought about getting a guaranteed week when we added-on direct because of this, but at the same time we didn't want to get stuck with one 150+ pt contract. We ended up doing 3x50 contracts. Hoping this doesn't become a real issue!

 

[Huskerpaul]

I think this data has to be sign that DVD can’t ignore in terms of possibly reversing restrictions?

Another hopeful sign is that DVD has a new corporate boss over that division. More likely for a new person to overturn a policy from the previous boss if it can be shown the policy isn’t working as intended.

 

[RKS03]

For resale restrictions to really work they need to quickly add them tk other resorts. Makes no sense to just apply them to one resort. They made the right call on not applying them to VGF2 and make it a separate resort but it’s going to standout even more at RIV if they create new resorts and don’t add the restrictions to them.

 

[Madame]

I think what you'll also see a lot more of is Riviera points going to waste. There will be many people who bought resale RIV points who don't plan far enough ahead and then never find a reservation that works for them. Especially if they try to book in the 7 month window, when all other direct owners of different resorts will snatch up remaining room availability.

They’ll rent them out using whichever dates they can get, but anyone buying RIV resale knows to book at 11 months.

 

[What-r-ya Goofy?]

That and this 160pt RIV resale fully loaded going for $118/pt:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...uctions-formatting-tool.3878357/post-64066800

They need to change something bc that resale price scares me away from buying RIV.

Don't believe everything you read on the ROFR thread. That's crazy low.

 

[Sandisw]

Another hopeful sign is that DVD has a new corporate boss over that division. More likely for a new person to overturn a policy from the previous boss if it can be shown the policy isn’t working as intended.

I personally don’t think they’ll go away very easy but at least this is the first month with more things being equal than before.

I think for it to be a serious conversation you’d need to see VGF continue to outperform a few more months.

But I agree with other poster that if they can announce more restricted resorts, then they have something to show its staying

 

[Sandisw]

II actually see the opposite -- 60k RIV vs 100k GFV -- Where RIV has been on sale for 3 years and GFV new sales just launched recently. To me, that's RIV holding up pretty darn well. I would have expected a much bigger gap.

In April, it was GFV 178k and RIV 93k.

So, in April: RIV sales were only 52% of GFV sales. In May, RIV sales were 60% of GFV sales: In other words, as you move past the initial surge of new buyers, the gap is closing.
Also in May -- GFV sales dropped 44%.... RIV sales dropped only 36%

Regardless of any re-sale restrictions, GFV is going to be selling better than RIV right now. As long as the pricing is close, the flagship monorail resort is of course going to be more sought after than a skyliner resort. (Yes, there are lots of people who would prefer the skyliner location but honestly, the majority still prefer the monorail location). And GFV just came on sale, RIV has been on sale for 3 years.
Considering these factors, RIV sales being 40% less than GFV sales isn't really surprising at all.

The best comparison -- the last time 2 WDW resorts had overlapping sales -- around July 2019. RIV was about a couple months into sales, CCV was still offering incentives: RIV was 108,675 vs 52,837 for CCV -- so CCV was 48% of RIV sales.

The newest resort always sells the most -- The question is, how well do the other resorts hold up.

Good point about percentage. I didn’t figure that part out.

As I just posted, I don’t think they’ll remove them easily but as least this was the first month with more things being equal

 

[havoc315]

That and this 160pt RIV resale fully loaded going for $118/pt:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...uctions-formatting-tool.3878357/post-64066800

They need to change something bc that resale price scares me away from buying RIV.

That's really rock bottom, benefits from RIV not currently getting ROFR activity.. But that number should be reassuring:
It's about 62% of the current direct pricing. That's pretty good for a bottom.

Compare it to Beach Club: It goes for about $160-$170 on average. BCV is $265 direct -- So BCV resale is 62% of direct pricing, just like that RIV price.

 

[wdwdaddy4life]

Don't believe everything you read on the ROFR thread. That's crazy low.

LOL- I guess someone is calling me a liar???

 

[Sandisw]

The thing that bothers me the most about the RIV resale restrictions is that once RIV is sold out there will be a large number of resale points that can only be used at RIV forcing every one of them to book right at the 11 month mark. The rooms are going to be so competitive that even RIV owners who bought direct could have difficulty getting the room they want at their home resort because the resale owners will be forced to be so cut-throat on their reservations. If you buy RIV direct you may be forced to use them as SAP during certain periods of the year.

I know people have this concern but over the years, there have been many posts that the average number of owners who are not original owners is no more than 20%.

So, those needing to book early because they have resale points won’t be that largel if it hold true. And it will take a long time to get there.

Even now, the competition for SV rooms is tough without resale playing a role. So owners already know if you want the less expensive rooms, 11 month booking is a must. It’s why my RIV points get scheduled right away, even when I am not sure a trip will happen.

Where to could change is 7 months because they’ll resale owners won’t leave. And to be honest, I bet a lot of people who have and are buying RIV are buying to use there.

What restrictions will do down the line, when applied to more resorts, especially come 2042, is that trading out won’t be as easy and the whole SAP idea won’t be as popular.

Again, I don’t think they are going anywhere and I guess if you look at the % change, vGF dropped Larger than RIV, even though it sold more.

But at least we have something to start a better comparison post pandemic.

 

[hglenn]

I bet a lot of people who have and are buying RIV are buying to use there.

I definitely agree with this. We love the look/feel of RIV. I guess from a DVC product as a whole, I feel like any restrictions deplete the overall value of the product. I think that the true value of DVC comes with the flexibility and variety. If they are going to move the product to the more traditional TS model then I think it will become less appealing overall.