@Dis5150 Here is my assessment. I do believe she can do it. I fear the risk for injury is high given the situation. An injury may occur during the last 7 weeks of training with the ramp-up in mileage, and/or during the marathon itself. I would make the following suggestions to reduce the chance for injury and maintain her chances for finishing the marathon.
The 14 miler was about 3 weeks ago.
Sounds good.
Her half PR was 2:43, which is also her POT for the marathon.
Based on her half PR of 2:43, I would make the following training pace suggestion:
Her HM PR suggests a marathon tempo of a 13:00 min/mile, or a finish of 5:40:41 if fully trained. She likely won't be fully trained and she should plan to aim for a slower time on race day.
If she is a continuous runner, then read here: I would suggest her doing her long run training at a 13:56 min/mile if she is a continuous runner. If she is running at this pace already, then her 14 miler likely took around 3 hours 15 minutes. I tend to suggest no more than 2.5 hours (sometimes 3 hours in rare occasions) for a max run for a continuous runner, which means for your daughter and the pace she is to run a long run at would be a 11 mile long run.
If she is a run/walker, then read here: Per Galloway, her long run should be about 2 minutes slower than goal marathon pace. Thus, he would suggest training at a 15:00 min/mile. Jack Daniels suggests that a run/walker should max at 4.5 hours. This would mean she should max at 18 miles.
She has not been able to run for 2-3 weeks.
This is an issue, but getting back to consistent running will help. In this span of 2-3 weeks she has lost roughly 6-9% of her fitness gains from right after the 14 miler. Thankfully, it's easier to regain fitness then build new. So within a 2-3 week timespan she should be back to where she was prior to the 14 miler.
she can run at least 3-4 days a week but it will be mostly on the treadmill due to her work hours and the area around where she moved being unsafe to run in alone
The treadmill can be fine. It won't completely simulate outside running conditions, but if the choice is treadmill or no running, then treadmill is a good choice.
She had been running probably 11-15 miles a week prior, some 3 mile runs, some 5, building up to the 14 on her long run day
Let her know that I would suggest running those 3-5 mile weekday runs at long run pace (13:52 or 15:00) or slower. This will keep the mileage easy and help her build endurance necessary to finish the marathon. There is no reason to do any speed work at this point. Endurance, endurance, endurance. All of the training should feel relatively easy. She should almost never fade on a run (fading = finishing a run slower than she started). If she is fading, then pull back on either the mileage or pace. Fading is a signal the body is sending that the training may be too much. You can fade during a race, and survive. But fading in training typically ends in disaster come race day.
She plans to keep the 3-5 mile runs and try and build up the long run.
If we evaluate if from a time perspective then the 3 mile run would be around 45 min, and the 5 mile run around 75 min. These are good endurance building timeframes. If she could do say Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday with a 3, 5, 5, Long Run all at long run or slower paces, then she will be golden.
I think she has 16, 18, and 20 mile runs scheduled and then tapering back to 15, then 10, then the marathon.
This is where I'll disagree. Because she hasn't run in 2-3 weeks, I would think it would be unwise to build to 20. She doesn't have to to successfully complete the marathon, and if anything it will greatly increase her chances for injury. It's important to remember that the long run isn't a magic bullet. And greatly unbalancing the schedule towards the long run could lead to injury. Ideally, the long run not exceed 35% of the weekly mileage. But that's tough if the weekday mileage is 13 (3+5+5), because 35% would be 7 miles. And given her circumstances with her job (see below), I wouldn't recommend she increase her weekday training. So the further she gets from 7 miles on the long run the more the weekly mileage becomes unbalanced and the higher her injury risk goes up.
So my suggestion for the weekends would be the following (starting 11/26/16 weekend):
Continuous runner - 7, 9, 7, 13, 7, 5 (@ 13:56 min/mile)
Run/walker - 8, 12, 8, 15, 8, 5 (@ 15:00 min/mile)
I know these suggestions look low. But it's important to balance where she is at with where she needs to be. If we ramp too quickly from no running the past 2-3 weeks, then increased risk for injury. If we ramp slower and have less mileage than ideal, then we reduce injury risk during training and she'll be able to even attempt the marathon. The marathon may still not be an enjoyable day (pain-wise), but if she keeps her pace somewhere around a 13:52-15:00 min/mile on marathon day her body will tolerate it better.
This is where the mental game comes into play. Tell her that on race day to use the following mindset. Commonly when people reach a mile marker past where they went in training, they typically say " I have never gone this far" or "I wonder if I can keep running beyond this." I like to think of it as the opposite. Let's say her longest training run is 14 miles. Rather than at mile 14 saying, I've never trained further. Instead at mile 12 hit the reset button. Mile 12 is now mile 0. Mile 13 is now mile 1. So that when she hits mile 26, it's actually mile 14. I've done 14 miles in training. No big deal. If you can change the mindset from fear of the unknown, to I can do this because I have before. Then you'll have a better chance to succeed. Remind her that because of the taper she should feel better at the start of the marathon then during any training run prior. Keeping a positive mindset and maintaining motivation goes a LONG way in succeeding on race day.
Her work schedule is crazy - 2 jobs back to back, starting at either 4:30am or 6:am and usually ending at 9:30pm.
That's nuts. This right here is "cumulative fatigue" training without the actual running. Balancing life and running is important. And because of this I wouldn't suggest she do any more than the 3-5 mile runs she has currently planned. She'll just run herself into the ground.
She rarely has a day off from both places at the same time. She is trying to get morning runs in when she has a day off from the morning job and evening runs in on days off from the afternoon/evening job.
That's tough and commendable. Remind her that the spirit to even be willing to get these runs in on these tough tough days, will be the reason she crosses the finish line on marathon day.
Again, give your description I believe she can do it. These are just my suggestions on how she can get there with the lowest injury risk and give her the best opportunity to enjoy race day. I will add that these suggestions I have given are specifically for your daughter and that anyone else reading these suggestions might not be in the same applicable situation. So please don't take my advice as a blanket statement about anyone's training. I am a big believer that all training plans should be unique and set up specifically to match an individual person.
Thoughts?
That was as far as I got training for my first marathon (I had a 20-miler scheduled but a blizzard wiped that out). The fact that she is already in good shape will help her.
Also, to completing my first Dopey (including many character stops, rides and drinks on the way to the finish of the Full), and to a post race celebration at the Chef's table of Victoria and Alberts! It will be an epic weekend for sure!
