Leveraging DVC purchase to get new AP

[Brian Noble]

there is growing evidence that the current AP program is dead

I think that is very much true at DLR. It is less clear to me that it will be true at WDW. But, that's because the guest mix at the two resorts is very different. DLR is much more of a "locals' park" and I suspect Passholders there made up a much larger fraction of attendance.

It also seems to me that WDW has more areas of vulnerability to forces that would decrease attendance, and so having the "shock absorber" of a Passholder community is more important there. For example, a much larger fraction of WDW guests fly to the resort, so something that disrupts air travel (an oil price shock; a terrorist event) is much more painful for WDW than for DLR.

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I would bet that WDW will bring back something that looks similar to the old AP program, but that DLR's will be quite a bit different if it exists at all. For example, I could see DLR creating more of a loyalty program that has different tiers based on your annual spend at the Resort. This would be similar to what most airlines have done, moving the basis for reward currency from "miles flown" to "dollars spent."

developer reserves the right to substitute a replacement incidental benefit of a type, quality, value, and term reasonably similar to the unavailable incidental benefit."

IANAL, but "reserves the right" does not necessarily imply "is compelled to." I suspect there are other sentences in there that suggest that those incidental benefits can change or disappear---indeed, the word "incidental" itself has some meaning here.

Of course, even if I am completely wrong about this, Disney is an entity that has a lot of faith in its General Counsel office. This is a company that managed to draft what eventually became legislation granting it its own private municipality---and it was adopted without substantive changes. They will go pretty far in a fight if they think they are right. A handful of owners pointing out what might be genuinely problematic language is not going to worry them all that much.

 

[Grumpy Mouse]

I think that is very much true at DLR. It is less clear to me that it will be true at WDW. But, that's because the guest mix at the two resorts is very different. DLR is much more of a "locals' park" and I suspect Passholders there made up a much larger fraction of attendance.

It also seems to me that WDW has more areas of vulnerability to forces that would decrease attendance, and so having the "shock absorber" of a Passholder community is more important there. For example, a much larger fraction of WDW guests fly to the resort, so something that disrupts air travel (an oil price shock; a terrorist event) is much more painful for WDW than for DLR.

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I would bet that WDW will bring back something that looks similar to the old AP program, but that DLR's will be quite a bit different if it exists at all. For example, I could see DLR creating more of a loyalty program that has different tiers based on your annual spend at the Resort. This would be similar to what most airlines have done, moving the basis for reward currency from "miles flown" to "dollars spent."


IANAL, but "reserves the right" does not necessarily imply "is compelled to." I suspect there are other sentences in there that suggest that those incidental benefits can change or disappear---indeed, the word "incidental" itself has some meaning here.

Of course, even if I am completely wrong about this, Disney is an entity that has a lot of faith in its General Counsel office. This is a company that managed to draft what eventually became legislation granting it its own private municipality---and it was adopted without substantive changes. They will go pretty far in a fight if they think they are right. A handful of owners pointing out what might be genuinely problematic language is not going to worry them all that much.

I just pointed to that sentence in our contract because in their last correspondence to me, they pointed to the ability of a benefit to be terminated due to circumstances beyond their control. But I completely agree with you regarding the language in our ("the") contract; it is full of conflicting language and vaguery. It is written such that Disney can do just about anything they want to - where an individual's only remedy would be a court of law - where of course Disney has all the muscle. So, no, I don't think I worry them that much.

There is a story circulating in the legal trades (don't know if it's true) that should you need to seek legal remedy against WDW, it is very difficult to find representation in the Orlando area. Apparently, Disney regularly farms out a small piece of work to just about every law firm in the area such that if you need their services they're unwilling to go up against Disney due to conflict of interest - or unwilling to bite the hand that feeds them.

Anyway, as a fairly new DVC owner, I've generally been shocked (and disappointed) by the behavior of my Disney master. No illusions about why they're here - Disney is a for-profit business, pure and simple. But you still have to take care of your customer, even in for-profit businesses - and particularly those where your customers are making significant financial commitments that are directly accretive to your bottom line. Disney - DVC - has completely failed in this regard during the pandemic. And if you read these boards, you know I'm not the only one who shares this opinion (both old and new customers).

It's been a real eye-opener for a company that sold itself as a premium brand - as "the happiest place on earth".

 

[Sandisw]

...assuming you would be buying full-freight passes and going at least 2x/year without owning DVC.

I suspect a lot of people "save" money by taking more trips than they would have. Did they save money compared to what those trips would have cost? They sure did. Did they spend less on Disney vacations than they would have had they not been owners? No.

That's not to say it's a bad thing. It's perfectly fine to take something that would otherwise be out of reach and make it affordable.

Very true. But buying resale can cause this to happen as well. I am not sure that just having an AP would do it.

But, it just cost me friend just over $550 for a 4 day park hopper in July. Now, a 7 day was $650..but that is the current cost of a renewal.

So, I don’t think anymore families can’t make it work if it fits their needs.

 

[Brian Noble]

It's been a real eye-opener for a company that sold itself as a premium brand - as "the happiest place on earth".

This reminds me of something I've been saying for years.

Disney is a company that makes money by selling happiness. That's not the same as "Disney wants me, specifically, to be happy." It is easy to believe the latter is true, until something happens that makes it clear that it is not.

This is for many the moment of disillusionment.

When you reach that point, you have a few options. You can take your ball and go home. You can stick around and be unhappy about it. Or you can decide to enjoy the parts you can, and let go of the other stuff.

 

[Grumpy Mouse]

This reminds me of something I've been saying for years.

Disney is a company that makes money by selling happiness. That's not the same as "Disney wants me, specifically, to be happy." It is easy to believe the latter is true, until something happens that makes it clear that it is not.

This is for many the moment of disillusionment.

When you reach that point, you have a few options. You can take your ball and go home. You can stick around and be unhappy about it. Or you can decide to enjoy the parts you can, and let go of the other stuff.

I've actually thought a lot about this.

We're almost fully retired. I retired a few years ago, and my wife will retire in just under two months. In discussing our "go-to" retirement activity, I really wanted to do the "glamping" thing, but the wife's not much of an outdoors person - so that was out. She does, however, love Disney - and we've made many trips to both DL (we used to live in CA) and WDW when the kids were young and as they got older. She's worked her rear-end off for 30+ years as a school teacher and deserves a nice retirement - so I started looking into the Disney option.

Now the problem is Disney is an ultra-planned excursion, but our desire to plan anything has grown dimmer with each passing year. In fact the only way we went to Disney when the kids got older was to insist they take over all of the necessary planning.

So the only way I was going to do Disney as a regular retirement vacation/excursion was to setup something that would both minimize annual cost and planning hassle. Essentially, buy a direct contract at a desirable/affordable resort and get a DVC discounted set of annual passes. Before the pandemic, if you were not too picky about dates (and retired people can go at "off" times), you could book your resort, buy a couple of plane tickets, tell Disney to pick you (and your luggage) up at the airport - and just go. With annual passes, we had the freedom to go whenever and wherever without having to plan it out to the ninth degree.

And now that dream is dead (well, at least for now).

Not only are we facing higher costs (retirees living on fixed income), but also now facing extra layers of planning hassle. Getting the tickets (how many days do we buy, will we want to go to the parks more or less, etc.), picking, months in advance, what parks we want to go to on which days, the future prospect of having to arrange our own transportation (and cost) to and from the airport, etc., etc., etc.

Even now I find myself avoiding the planning I must do - which at present is buy tickets since we likely will not get annual passes anytime soon (if ever). The idea of having to wait two to three hours on the phone to buy tickets just repulses me - and the idea of having to pick which parks we want to go to months in advance also repulses me. Life's too short to do this kind of crap when you get old.

And all of this doesn't even cover the issue that many of the things older folks like to do at the parks are currently shut down - with no timeline for their return.

So we've decided to give it year and see what happens. If things don't improve substantially by year-end, we're gone. At our age, better to really let it go - than to just "mentally" let it go.

 

[wvujeb]

Very true. But buying resale can cause this to happen as well. I am not sure that just having an AP would do it.

But, it just cost me friend just over $550 for a 4 day park hopper in July. Now, a 7 day was $650..but that is the current cost of a renewal.

So, I don’t think anymore families can’t make it work if it fits their needs.

I believe having the AP does for out of state passholders. Recently we have purchased AP every other year, with trips planned for 11+ months apart, because it is cheaper or roughly the same price as 2 8-day tickets. In the years we have the AP, we usually end up taking another trip or 2. We're usually looking for somewhere to go, and since we have the AP, why not.

I think there are several different classes of AP at WDW that travel differently and spend differently. When looking at making changes to AP, Disney has to consider each of those groups and how changes might impact each of them.

 

[Brian Noble]

So we've decided to give it year and see what happens. If things don't improve substantially by year-end, we're gone.

I understand your frustration, and I share a lot of it. But I've also tried to separate "things the pandemic hath wrought" from "the other stuff."

First, "the other stuff."

WDW had been pretty aggressive at increasing prices of just about everything. For example, not that many years ago, concessions within the World were more expensive than "the real world," but often less expensive than other "captive audience" venues---think ballparks, other amusement parks, or even DLR. Those days are definitely over. I'm very glad I decided to get sober; I typically don't worry about prices on vacation but even I blanch at $15 (including tip) for an utterly pedestrian glass of wine. Demand for the parks is strong, so Disney doesn't seem to mind it if a few guests are turned off by the prices and go somewhere else. The folks willing to spend more are still coming, so that's a Win for Mickey.

FP+ has convinced many people to plan more in advance, but I have found I'm planning less in advance than I used to. Perhaps surprisingly, the $10 no-show fee for ADRs has made this much easier. I can often pick up interesting meals the night before or even the morning of, and that will tend to determine at least my evening plans for the day. Getting "late" FP+ hasn't been all that hard either, because everyone else is constantly changing their plans. I may spend more time on "secondary" attractions that I used to, but I've found that to be a surprising upside. I still plan a few days ahead for a handful of priorities, but that's about it.

DME's absence is a bit of a bummer, but I don't think it's a game changer. That's largely because I rent a car more often than not. But, even when I don't it's not a big deal to grab luggage and hop a cab/uber/towncar/whatever (and except for the towncar, takes no advance planning.) Yes, luggage takes a bit longer, but in exchange I can avoid the multiple-bus-stops/wait-at-the-terminal/leave-three-hours-early thing. So, not a big deal in terms of hassle. It does add a chunk to the cost of the trip, but again: Disney is okay with turning away folks who are highly price-sensitive. (IMO, this is the other side of the resort parking fee coin. Both play the same role.)

I may be the optimist to your pessimist but I suspect most of the rest of what's been going on is "what the pandemic hath wrought." As I wrote above, I expect Florida will have something like the old AP program. I also expect that as capacity restrictions are eased/eliminated due to changing public health guidance, the Park Pass requirement will go away as will the hard time-limit on park hopping.

That said, I do think that the AP program will change in ways that make it more expensive for people who previously had the lowest per-day admission costs. That could be increases in price generally, but I also expect to see significant increases in block-out days for lower-cost pass tiers. For example, I would not be surprised to see the current Florida AP to start excluding most Saturdays, with a new price tier for those who want to include them. But, again: if a number of people decide they've had enough due to the increased costs, I don't think Mickey is going to shed many tears. That seems to be the plan.