Late spring 2025 incentives (April 29-July 14)

[VGCgroupie]

I understand! I hate reaching out if I am not interested. I did call when early cabin info dropped to be nosey and he asked if I wanted to be added to his interest list and I said no. PVB is different. I am not personally a fan of the studios, but I am really tempted by that one bedroom theme park view even though it's wide open in the 11-month window. The prices are worse today than yesterday so I am torn.

Pro move is to sign right before new incentives come out. You can then get the better pricing if incentives get better.

 

[PolyRob]

Pro move is to sign right before new incentives come out. You can then get the better pricing if incentives get better.

Maybe in July I should check for Disney Visa and D23 now though just to be prepared LOL

 

[VGCgroupie]

Maybe in July I should check for Disney Visa and D23 now though just to be prepared LOL

Oh and if they get worse you'll likely not cancel because then you will feel like you got a deal, even if you didn't originally think so!. Not that I have personal experience with that

 

[PolyRob]

Oh and if they get worse you'll likely not cancel because then you will feel like you got a deal, even if you didn't originally think so!. Not that I have personal experience with that

Disney math always wins in the end!

 

[DJRUK]

Very nice! Has anyone heard from their guide whether or not it's still being honored?

I am willing to email mine for the links to keep him warm. He has no idea I am interested.

Ours mentioned the D23 Gold discount to us yesterday, so seems positive!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Wanted to thank @DanCali for the discussion of Redweek and the Marriott near AUL. Our kids love AUL but we wish it was calmer and less crowded, and we love dining at the Marriott…the prices for the Marriott Ko Olina through Marriott directly are completely insane, but now I’m wondering if instead of shelling out AUL points for a 2Bed, we could do a 1bed at AUL and 1bed at the Marriott via rental and then parent and grandparents can alternate staying with kids or chilling a few crescents away.

 

[Brian Noble]

They already got the people who wanted to buy at "any price" and with no MB.

Not quite.

There is a steady stream of new-to-Disney guests/guests who have not been going forever. And there always will be as long as they keep making families with young children. I don't see any reason why DVC can't continue on its current path.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Wanted to thank @DanCali for the discussion of Redweek and the Marriott near AUL. Our kids love AUL but we wish it was calmer and less crowded, and we love dining at the Marriott…the prices for the Marriott Ko Olina through Marriott directly are completely insane, but now I’m wondering if instead of shelling out AUL points for a 2Bed, we could do a 1bed at AUL and 1bed at the Marriott via rental and then parent and grandparents can alternate staying with kids or chilling a few crescents away.

Not discounting that renting over at Marriott seems to be a good bang for your buck at a quieter resort, but the jump in points from a 2Bd from a 1Bd isn’t that much…. and you get 3 bathrooms instead of 1. For our upcoming trip it’s 130 more points for a week in a 2BD.

130 x $18 =$2,340
$2,340/7 =$334.286

 

[maui22]

As I look at April county data, I'm somewhat surprised by these incentives. April data is not complete (still waiting for county to finish entering 4/30 records and then proof 4/25-4/30).

However, PVB data through what is recorded so far on the county (including what is not proofed), is showing April to be just below October (which was a half a month of deeds). I consider February 2025 to have been their slowest for PVB recording date on occompt and April is 5k lower. (Also 56 fewer deeds than Feb 25 so far). It's possible the county messed up on a bunch of entries or a bunch of deeds show up in the rest of the day.

Some variables at play though.

• In December, they were allowing 90 day delayed closings so that boosted county data for January-March. At some point in 2025, they went to 60 day delayed closings, so county date - palm tree date means county recorded more accurately reflect the last two months of sales. Why is April lower than February?
• Week of Easter data is just starting to show up (most recent palm tree date is 4/17/25 and Easter was 4/20/25). This should boost May and June county deeds data.

Looking forward to seeing what happens in May data. It will show Easter 25 data. However, it will provide a better image of any impact from the March Canada/Mexico tariffs and April 2nd global tariffs day.

Things can change with a strike of the pen, but data is looking like a slowdown. Without some change, I wonder if Disney will be content with these spring incentives? To me, current direction of DVC direct incentives doesn't looking very promising for shareholders. Maybe I'm wrong and a bunch of people will love the 15 year mortgages?

FWIW, without tracking Riviera, it seemed like there were fewer deeds there as well. However, that's more of a gut felling based on how many pages of records I forwarded through.

Also of note, I believe there was a small increase in the number of deeds coming back to Disney ownership.

 

[davidhr]

I wouldn’t be surprised about it because things are not looking great at all for other industries. It’s going to be a bloodbath when companies have their next quarterly earnings calls and adjust their full year forecast.

Even if potential DVC buyers have the money, the overall feeling about the economy is going to make them think about it.

for some years people have been expecting an economic downturn, but the data wasn’t showing it. The data is showing it right now. And I think it’s even worse than most people are expecting.

I personally scratched any plans to get more points until all this noise clears.

 

[DanCali]

Not quite.

There is a steady stream of new-to-Disney guests/guests who have not been going forever. And there always will be as long as they keep making families with young children. I don't see any reason why DVC can't continue on its current path.

Here's my point - When sales started in November, there was a LOT of pent-up demand from the biggest fans of the resort who couldn't wait to buy regardless of the opening incentives. We also had a lot of hype in a 209 page thread here with over 4100 posts.

And then sales began in November.... They sold 85K-90K points per month in November, December and January with no MB. Sales started to dip in February into the mid 70Ks but then the incentives got better and they added MB (although the starting price was $10 higher) so March was back to ~90K and I expect April will be similar.

Sure, there is a steady flow of visitors who talk to guides and buy on an ongoing basis. But if you try and extrapolate some demand curve - those who didn't buy February, March or April, are less likely to buy now. And those who bought at the prevailing prices from November to April, are less likely to buy again. There's just fewer people out there willing to pay the new higher prices.

 

[PolyRob]

I am selfishly hoping better incentives are released before my UY so I don't forgo 2024 points. Whether banking or selling back with MB I would only purchase this calendar year if I am still getting my 2024 UY points.

I told myself I didn't need to buy during the initial sale for members because I had all this time and am saving on the dues every month I wait. Let's see if that strategy works out in the end.

 

[Girlstar30]

I understand! I hate reaching out if I am not interested. I did call when early cabin info dropped to be nosey and he asked if I wanted to be added to his interest list and I said no. PVB is different. I am not personally a fan of the studios, but I am really tempted by that one bedroom theme park view even though it's wide open in the 11-month window. The prices are worse today than yesterday so I am torn.

I am so excited I was able to secure a a 1 bedroom PIT room for September I am aiming for the tp view and it's not a tp view but it's a start!

 

[Girlstar30]

I am selfishly hoping better incentives are released before my UY so I don't forgo 2024 points. Whether banking or selling back with MB I would only purchase this calendar year if I am still getting my 2024 UY points.

I told myself I didn't need to buy during the initial sale for members because I had all this time and am saving on the dues every month I wait. Let's see if that strategy works out in the end.

All I know is the worse the incentives get the more I am pushed to resale and therefore not going to purchase direct. They should have grabbed me when I had rose colored glasses on, now I know too much

 

[DVCsloth]

Disney is looking down the road a bit and IMO they feel that the economy will improve in the near future. Everything has gotten more expensive to build and I don't think they feel the need to firesale these resorts. Resale is a good alternative, but you should be aware that there are some rather substantial differences.

 

[maui22]

I wouldn’t be surprised about it because things are not looking great at all for other industries. It’s going to be a bloodbath when companies have their next quarterly earnings calls and adjust their full year forecast.

Even if potential DVC buyers have the money, the overall feeling about the economy is going to make them think about it.

for some years people have been expecting an economic downturn, but the data wasn’t showing it. The data is showing it right now. And I think it’s even worse than most people are expecting.

I personally scratched any plans to get more points until all this noise clears.

This is it started with the stroke of a pen and it can end that quickly too.

As for DVC sales, everyone makes their own decisions.

• Person A may tighten their wallet
• Person B thinks material and construction costs will rise so they buy now
• Person C just inherited a sum of money
• Person D just lost their job.
• Person E is going through a divorce.
• Etc

I forget this at times. Helped remind me by writing this post. I admit my emotions/feelings will change based on my own circumstances at that second so next time I post I may be happier or more fearful.

DVC sales are a teeny, tiny segment.
If 1500 people are happy and buy DVC every month it doesn't matter what the 330 million Americans or billions in the world feel. If those averaged 150 points each, that's 225k. Far better than the 180k that DVCNews showed for March 2025 direct deeds on the various county websites.

 

[davidhr]

I forget this at times. Helped remind me by writing this post. I admit my emotions/feelings will change based on my own circumstances at that second so next time I post I may be happier or more fearful.

I love that part. To be fair, I’m very optimistic about my personal circumstances so that post was on the optimistic side

 

[Girlstar30]

I guess for now i am just comfortable renting out my points when I want to stay somewhere else and yes i understand there are taxes, but the math makes sense to me because i wont want to do this every year and I like being able to rent and get home resort priority whenever I want to stay at the newer resorts, especially for the future when they may be harder to book at the 7 month window.

Other people don't want to bother with the hassle or the inflexibility. I really dont mind. I also don't mind cancelling a rental and getting a credit for future use, I just did that yesterday.

Other people see benefits in the direct sorcerer pass, that doesn't benefit me. Everyone has there reasons and way of doing things, I'm glad both options are offered.

 

[PolyRob]

I am so excited I was able to secure a a 1 bedroom PIT room for September I am aiming for the tp view and it's not a tp view but it's a start!

That's great! I would honestly settle for preferred view, but there are so few of them which is why I think I may eventually need PVB to secure what I am looking for.

All I know is the worse the incentives get the more I am pushed to resale and therefore not going to purchase direct. They should have grabbed me when I had rose colored glasses on, now I know too much

It's so hard! I keep looking for a deal, but I know how simple direct is. MB automatically lowers it 20 points and with promotions it makes it about $200 per point depending on incentive tier. If I can save another ~20% with credit cards that brings me to about $160 which is on par with some resale contracts that aren't stripped and I can pick the exact number of points and size of contracts I want. Decisions, decisions!

 

[Girlstar30]

That's great! I would honestly settle for preferred view, but there are so few of them which is why I think I may eventually need PVB to secure what I am looking for.


It's so hard! I keep looking for a deal, but I know how simple direct is. MB automatically lowers it 20 points and with promotions it makes it about $200 per point depending on incentive tier. If I can save another ~20% with credit cards that brings me to about $160 which is on par with some resale contracts that aren't stripped and I can pick the exact number of points and size of contracts I want. Decisions, decisions!

I have the worst view, resort. But i am happy to watch the fireworks on the beach i don't have enough points to go for tp view yet so I'm really hoping this SSR pushes through.

If it does i already have my strategy to try to book 2 tp view nights on it 1 night waitlist at a time then modify current reservation to two nights if it hits so I don't go under my borrowed points... all of this is like a chess game, but I love the challenge even tho it drives me crazy

What makes it so hard for me is resale allows extra points which means more vacations and better rooms. I think if this resale goes thru I can justify direct more, crazy enough, because then I will have enough points for my needs regardless and can wait it out for a great deal if that ever happens and if it doesnt still be satisfied.