Jan 2018 wait times longer than Summer 2017: Disney reduced ride capacity

[AtlantaDisneyDreamer]

This. I'm usually able to get at least 10 FPs at MK, and 6-7 at the other parks. I can't imagine that being all that I do. This includes my most recent trip the week of/after New Years this January. I noticed the park was more crowded in terms of number of people walking through and walkways being more crowded, but we were still able to get everything done that we wanted.

I have to say this was our experience, too. A couple of weeks ago we got 7+ fastpasses each day and watched the nighttime shows and visited several other attractions (with short or no waits) and enjoyed several nice, leisurely meals, AND spent 3-4 hours most days at the resort pool.

We did everything we wanted and more.

Right now, the system is still working well for me even with big crowds- largely because of good planning, loads of information, and the current fastpass system.

I fear that things will change in the future, but right now, we still have great trips.

 

[wgeo]

We were at MK last Saturday - rode the People Mover at 9:30 while the kids did Space Mountain. We walked right on and where the only people in our entire set of cars - but I'm guessing that was because it was so early. But the ride broke down 3 times while we were on it, one of the times so long that I wondered if they were going to evacuate the ride. By the time we finished the line to ride was winding through the ropes - at around 10 in the morning. Both Splash and BTM were down early, we figured hey lets go over to Tom Sawyer Island - haven't done that in forever and it wasn't open. Tried to do Haunted Mansion but it was down, tried to do it 2 more times but it went down each time. Stood in a mass of people trying to walk in front Its a Small World when we were trying to get to HM once. The logjam was so bad that cast members were pushing thru trying to figure out what the problem was. Finally after clearing that small walkway after 15 minutes of people pushing and shoving I turned around and they'd gotten a cast member into the middle with the stay right sign, but it was still a disaster. We gave up and left, I think we had done maybe 4 things, I guess technically 5 if you count eating lunch. It was by far the worse day we've had at Disney between the breakdowns and the crowds, and we're AP holders and have gone at all times of the year.

 

[mom2rtk]

For me it's about so much more than how many attractions I do in a day. Yes, I have a certain threshold number of experiences. But even if I did twice as many as expected, it's still not a magical day for me if I have to fight my way through a massive sea of humanity all day. No, I don't expect the park to be empty. But the number of other guests in the park is a factor in my enjoyment just as much as the number of experiences.

 

[hereforthechurros]

Because for most people, giving them the complete numbers would be far too much information! I know I would be overwhelmed by that. Disney's already quite complicated to plan for newbies, adding reading a detailed list of crowd numbers would be too much. Even for me planning a Disney trip after making a number of visits I don't really want to know every exact number.

Yeah in no way am I asking for complete information or spreadsheets of data to pore over to determine attendance and thus my ideal time to visit. Not necessary and no Corp in their right mind would do that. But accurately determining busy and value seasons would be a start.

 

[whiporee]

The flaws in this are:

1. You're discrediting first hand accounts of people who are experiencing rides running at less capacity than they have in the past.
2. You're discrediting what Len has noticed.
3. You're assuming the hotels are maxed out/full. They're not.
4. You assume there are more guests. While it's too soon to tell for 2018, both 2016 and 2017 had drops in attendence. Now I will say thanks to crowd shifting previously slow times had more people, yes. But overall for the year, there were less people.
5. Just because Disney has common sense regards to hotel rates (what you suggest is not feasible), that doesn't mean they're not trying to price gouge/maximize their profits in as many ways as possible.

1) Just like you're discounting what an actual CM who has worked there has said about the way it really works. If you're talking about people seeing ride tracks down, I think you could also find people who say they've seen both tracks running and there being very little wait. That's why the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
2) Len said his data collection was imperfect, but even if his numbers are right, it doesn't mean there's been change in operating procedure. It just means he happened to be at a place where this happened to be happening.
3) The hotels are close enough. They aren't running half empty.
4). You're right, I do. Since WDW doesn't release actual attendance numbers, all I can base that on is MCO numbers, and they are up year-to-year.
5) I think you're wrong. I think MK could be resort-only Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and they could jack the rates 30 percent. It might not make visible sense, but they get 70 bucks for an hour and three rides and 100 for three hours late at night, and both of those events often (if not usually) sell out. If they were getting more for the rooms, they could afford to reduce the attendance numbers and make it rewarding for those resort customers they could be catering to a much greater extent than they do. I don't think anyone has found what the price ceiling at WDW is yet, and I think if I were a WDW big-shot suit, it might be time to find out.

 

[mshanson3121]

1) Just like you're discounting what an actual CM who has worked there has said about the way it really works. If you're talking about people seeing ride tracks down, I think you could also find people who say they've seen both tracks running and there being very little wait. That's why the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
2) Len said his data collection was imperfect, but even if his numbers are right, it doesn't mean there's been change in operating procedure. It just means he happened to be at a place where this happened to be happening.
3) The hotels are close enough. They aren't running half empty.
4). You're right, I do. Since WDW doesn't release actual attendance numbers, all I can base that on is MCO numbers, and they are up year-to-year.
5) I think you're wrong. I think MK could be resort-only Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and they could jack the rates 30 percent. It might not make visible sense, but they get 70 bucks for an hour and three rides and 100 for three hours late at night, and both of those events often (if not usually) sell out. If they were getting more for the rooms, they could afford to reduce the attendance numbers and make it rewarding for those resort customers they could be catering to a much greater extent than they do. I don't think anyone has found what the price ceiling at WDW is yet, and I think if I were a WDW big-shot suit, it might be time to find out.

Attendance numbers are public enough that their decline was commented on by Washington Post, New York Times, financial news sites and the like for both years. I highly doubt they were wrong.

 

[whiporee]

nm

 

[rteetz]

I think 10 still seems right. Three FPs, fireworks, parade, maybe one of the stage shows. Leaves about five of an nine hour day for other rides or M&Gs at 40 minutes on average wait time and still time for transit and eating and such (plus, the 40 minutes is probably high for most non-headliners). I've always heard the target number was seven rides so that would fit.

I don't think they're cutting staffing and I don't think they're cutting capacity beyond what you'd expect for normal seasonal and daily timing; I think there are more people and more time for shuffling them on and off rides (scooters were not much of a thing in the past). The reasons lines are long always is because there are 30,000 hotel rooms that have to be filled, which means 100,000 on-site guests Every. Single. Day. If 40 percent of them go to MK (which, if you look at the attendance estimates out there is the norm), then that crowd by itself used to be a 7 or 8 in the old days. People staying on site also tend to be more omnipresent -- getting there earlier and also staying later because it's simply easier to get back to your onsite hotel than to drive off site -- look at how empty the parking lots are on even busy days. If WDW really wanted to maximize their profits to the extent some accuse them of, they could jack the hotel rates up much higher and severely limit off-site availability -- make the parks a real feature of the resorts. They could get a lot of money if they made the resorts the ONLY way you could get to the parks on certain days. But they don't do that, even though they probably could.

I also think that the reservation system has added to the walkways feeling a lot more crowded, because a third of the people who used to be in line for 30-40 minutes are now walking around.

Disney hotels are not at full capacity year round and especially not right now. Disney has several hotels under renovation which means less rooms available. Caribbean beach, Coronado springs, old key west, French quarter, pop century, and soon the all stars are all under renovation.

Hmmmm. Ten definitely seemed low to me so I just took a look at my TPs. They range from 15 to 20 non-dining experiences a day. HS is on the low end with more shows and M&Gs which typical take longer. MK is the high end with more quick short ‘filler’ rides. Admittedly, often (especially in the afternoon) my plans get chucked. We spend a lot of time with something that wasn’t in the plan. Tom Sawyer Island and Sorcerors are examples from last year. We are also not going to go shopping or do more eating than planned because we aren’t in line. We’re going to go stand in another experience line. We just aren’t big shoppers and our Disney appetite is what it is (which is higher than at home). So maybe Disney is finding that freeing people from lines isn’t really bumping up the revenue in other places. Maybe that’s the justification for reducing capacity on their side.

But even with a full 90 mins planned for TSI this year and plenty of free time for snack breaks I’m still at 20 experiences for MK that day. I would not consider 10 successful, in general (again, unless we chose to spend time on something else). People here often say that going on the holidays means you need to be happy with getting your 3 FPs and anything else is a bonus. We have not done a holiday week and have no plans to in part because I just can’t see myself being happy with that. If the regular park experience goes that route I think we would be out.

We’d be over at Uni using our Express Passes.

10 may seem low to you and I but that’s the target for the general guest. People who Uber plan and use TP are not general guests.

1) Just like you're discounting what an actual CM who has worked there has said about the way it really works. If you're talking about people seeing ride tracks down, I think you could also find people who say they've seen both tracks running and there being very little wait. That's why the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
2) Len said his data collection was imperfect, but even if his numbers are right, it doesn't mean there's been change in operating procedure. It just means he happened to be at a place where this happened to be happening.
3) The hotels are close enough. They aren't running half empty.
4). You're right, I do. Since WDW doesn't release actual attendance numbers, all I can base that on is MCO numbers, and they are up year-to-year.
5) I think you're wrong. I think MK could be resort-only Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and they could jack the rates 30 percent. It might not make visible sense, but they get 70 bucks for an hour and three rides and 100 for three hours late at night, and both of those events often (if not usually) sell out. If they were getting more for the rooms, they could afford to reduce the attendance numbers and make it rewarding for those resort customers they could be catering to a much greater extent than they do. I don't think anyone has found what the price ceiling at WDW is yet, and I think if I were a WDW big-shot suit, it might be time to find out.

1. Are CMs always right? You would also have to look at when that CM worked at that attraction and that’s only one attraction out of what 50+ at WDW.
2. Len might not be 100% right but he has data to back his claims up. Obviously something has changed over the past few years. Attendance has risen overall but there was a bit of a dip last year.
3. The hotels only account for so much of the guests in the parks. It’s not as many as you might think either.
5. That’s not going to happen because Disney would be losing money. Keeping it resort only would have Disney losing out on park tickets, merchandise, and dining. Guests who stay off site, locals, and just general day guests do spend money.

Attendance numbers are public enough that their decline was commented on by Washington Post, New York Times, financial news sites and the like for both years. I highly doubt they were wrong.

We don’t know exact attendance numbers. The TEA/AECOM is an estimate but even Disney said last year in their earnings calls that attendance wasn’t as strong as previous years.

 

[dlavender]

I’m headed down there tonight for the weekend. I’ll get to the bottom of this!

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I’m headed down there tonight for the weekend. I’ll get to the bottom of this!

And don’t you come back until you have the answer!

 

[AngieInOH]

This thread is killing me. I'm hoping for a Jan 2019 trip. I thought the crowds were crazy on my last trip in Jan 2016. Seems they are continuing to get even crazier. Oh how I wish it could go back to my trips in 2005 and 2008. The place was dead and we walked onto almost everything!

 

[Linkura]

Hmmmm. Ten definitely seemed low to me so I just took a look at my TPs. They range from 15 to 20 non-dining experiences a day. HS is on the low end with more shows and M&Gs which typical take longer. MK is the high end with more quick short ‘filler’ rides. Admittedly, often (especially in the afternoon) my plans get chucked. We spend a lot of time with something that wasn’t in the plan. Tom Sawyer Island and Sorcerors are examples from last year. We are also not going to go shopping or do more eating than planned because we aren’t in line. We’re going to go stand in another experience line. We just aren’t big shoppers and our Disney appetite is what it is (which is higher than at home). So maybe Disney is finding that freeing people from lines isn’t really bumping up the revenue in other places. Maybe that’s the justification for reducing capacity on their side.

But even with a full 90 mins planned for TSI this year and plenty of free time for snack breaks I’m still at 20 experiences for MK that day. I would not consider 10 successful, in general (again, unless we chose to spend time on something else). People here often say that going on the holidays means you need to be happy with getting your 3 FPs and anything else is a bonus. We have not done a holiday week and have no plans to in part because I just can’t see myself being happy with that. If the regular park experience goes that route I think we would be out.

We’d be over at Uni using our Express Passes.

For the average guest who doesn't know the DIS or Touring Plans exist, and doesn't really know how FP works and how you can refresh, 10 seems about right.

Obviously, we're not the average guest and we'd be upset if we only had 10 experiences.

Same experience on Magic Carpets! Stand by said 30, it was really 35, but every round they were sending multiple empty or near empty carpets. It was making me bonkers!

Thankfully my wait was only 15 minutes posted and about that actual. 35 is wayyy too much for that ride.

 

[rteetz]

For the average guest who doesn't know the DIS or Touring Plans exist, and doesn't really know how FP works and how you can refresh, 10 seems about right.

I am amazed every trip how many people don't know or don't utilize FP. I know many people think you have to pay extra for it too.

 

[Capang]

I am amazed every trip how many people don't know or don't utilize FP. I know many people think you have to pay extra for it too.

I had this conversation with a student's parents this week. They are heading down this summer and asked me if it is worth buying the FP. I tried to explain it's part of the ticket but they never did believe me.

 

[rteetz]

I had this conversation with a student's parents this week. They are heading down this summer and asked me if it is worth buying the FP. I tried to explain it's part of the ticket but they never did believe me.

I helped plan a trip for a relative last year and was explaining booking FPs. They asked how much extra that would cost...

 

[Linkura]

I am amazed every trip how many people don't know or don't utilize FP. I know many people think you have to pay extra for it too.

Oh man... I don't know if you saw my thread about my missing hat, but I went to Laugh Floor's FP line person twice to ask about it. While I waited for them to help me out, there were so many people going through the FP line or attempting to go through the line who had no idea what they were doing. One family had dramatically different FP times for every member of the family, while claiming that they picked the same time for everyone at the kiosk (which you know is BS and they just had no idea what they were doing). Of course pretty much everyone was waved through because it's Laugh Floor, but geez. It's not rocket science. It's almost like people are willfully ignorant and don't want to even attempt to figure out how it works.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

For the average guest who doesn't know the DIS or Touring Plans exist, and doesn't really know how FP works and how you can refresh, 10 seems about right.

Obviously, we're not the average guest and we'd be upset if we only had 10 experiences.


Thankfully my wait was only 15 minutes posted and about that actual. 35 is wayyy too much for that ride.

What? The average guest doesn’t have their day planned out to the bathroom break?? Kidding. I still think 10 is low for MK because we did that before FPs from your phone but I agree to disagree on that.

I think that so many people expect FP to be an extra charge because it is everywhere else. If you weren’t paying attention it would be the default assumption. But that’s ok. More FPs for us.

Seriously though, I do expect the ease of getting 4th and beyond FPs to erode over time as people figure it out. Also wouldn’t be surprised if Disney makes some sort of drastic change either.

 

[disneyseniors]

I'm told that they restrict the number of people on the elevator belt going up to the loading platform. That increases the number of empty cars, reduces capacity, and increases waits.
The two reasons I've heard for the restriction are: (1) to avoid breakdowns on the belt; and (2) to avoid pile-ups on the belt if the people who just got off don't make room for others.

Ah, that makes simple sense! I never thought of the belt breaking down, only of the empty cars. Thanks, Len!

 

[jenniferhouston2]

I think that so many people expect FP to be an extra charge because it is everywhere else. If you weren’t paying attention it would be the default assumption. But that’s ok. More FPs for us.

I think that mobile ordering at counter service restaurants is a good analogy to the evolution of Fastpass. Right now, and for the past year, mobile ordering has been a breeze, as we pick up our food ahead of and in front of hundreds jam packed in the traditional lunch lines--unaware of the free and easily available mobile ordering on MDE. I think this option will quickly lose its advantage as word of mouth spreads and as more people utilize MDE

 

[wgeo]

I think that mobile ordering at counter service restaurants is a good analogy to the evolution of Fastpass. Right now, and for the past year, mobile ordering has been a breeze, as we pick up our food ahead of and in front of hundreds jam packed in the traditional lunch lines--unaware of the free and easily available mobile ordering on MDE. I think this option will quickly lose its advantage as word of mouth spreads and as more people utilize MDE

Yeah even on Saturday the wait between clicking "im here" and getting our food for mobile order was way longer than it was the month previous - so as more people are using it is clearly going to slow down. THe amount of people standing around the mobile order section waiting for their food clogged the entire area so people with trays of food were weaving around them. Still faster than standing in line though.