Jan 2018 wait times longer than Summer 2017: Disney reduced ride capacity

[AtlantaDisneyDreamer]

The fact that more kids are out of school in summer than in January doesn't mean there are fewer guests. We were there in late July 2016 and were shocked at how few people were in the parks. Midsummer is a relatively slow season for WDW now.

I haven't observed or experienced ride capacity being cut. I think that assumption is a reaction to people's experiences of touring during newly busy times of year that used to be less busy. They're in denial about the new crowd patterns.

I’d agree with this. We’ve been to Disney many times in the last several years, including February, April, July, November, and September visits. By far the least crowded times have been the two July trips. And those were both over the 4th of July week. Part of the reason could be that the park hours are so much longer, and I think part must be that Disney still expects the old model crowds and staffs accordingly.

July 2016 AK had late hours (until 11 pm) for the first time, and practically no one was in the park after 9. It was glorious. I was the only person in the entire queue at KS. We were the only three people in Dinoland one night. It seemed there were far more staff than guests. Tusker House was less than half full for lunch and we got two visits from each character.

A couple of times going between parks there were only one or two people on the buses because Disney had contracted with outside bus companies to handle the crowds.

Of course, there were lots of people in MK for the fireworks on the 3rd and Epcot had a lot of people on the 4th, but HS had practically no lines for anything on the 4th.

AK was crowded last July due to Pandora, but other than that, crowd levels were quite pleasant.


I think a lot of people have decided that Orlando is just too hot in July. I think there has also been a belief that July is super crowded- by both guests and Disney management.

I say this and soon July will be packed again, or Disney will stop staffing so heavily in July, but the last couple of years it has been a great time to be at WDW.

 

[Iowamomof4]

Of course, we could all plan a trip for this July because the last 2 years July was really great and suddenly the crowds would shoot up!

 

[hereforthechurros]

Not as weird as this particular instance, but when I rode Magic Carpets Monday, they would only have people in the back of the cartpers if there were several people in a single party. If you were a party of only one-two adults and a small child, for example, they weren't loading another party in the back of the carpets at all, leaving them empty. As a solo traveler, I was in a carpet entirely by myself. Last year when I rode Carpets as a solo traveler, I was in the front and another party of 2 were in the back of the same carpet.

I also did PeopleMover. I had 8 minute wait for it midday, I thought that was ok. And they weren't sending out seats completely empty like you saw. But I did see very few CMs staffing the attraction. As I mentioned in another thread, I lost my hat in Tomorrowland somewhere. I thought it was Laugh Floor, but I wanted to check at People Mover just in case. Except I couldn't believe the only CM that wasn't at the top of the ride was right at the escalator portion at the end of the queue. There was literally no other CM at the ride except for up top... and I believe it was only one guy up there, two max. So I had no one I could even ask. Even at Laugh Floor they had a couple folks out front.

Same experience on Magic Carpets! Stand by said 30, it was really 35, but every round they were sending multiple empty or near empty carpets. It was making me bonkers!

 

[hereforthechurros]

Of course, we could all plan a trip for this July because the last 2 years July was really great and suddenly the crowds would shoot up!

Isn’t that just it though? All of the points in here have merit, and Len’s analytics are GREATLY appreciated, but in 2018, where almost everything is customizable and instant and data is king... how long can WDW keep asking people to pay $2k, $5k, $10k without giving them any sort of idea on crowd levels? How can you market it as a magical once in a lifetime trip but on the other hand be okay with guests having no clue what they are walking into? Or be okay misrepresenting wait times when people arrange their whole days around them? In 70s, 80s, 90s sure but they’re now using the data against the guest. It’s still working fine for them but may not last forever.

 

[AtlantaDisneyDreamer]

Of course, we could all plan a trip for this July because the last 2 years July was really great and suddenly the crowds would shoot up!

Based on the original thread topic, I wonder if the rest of the year has the potential to be just as nice crowd-wise, with ample staffing, long hours, and ride capacity, well, at actual capacity. I’m sure there are times, like Christmas and New Year’s, when the facilities and infrastructure just aren’t capable of making crowd levels seem comfortable for guests, but it would seem there are things the company could do to enhance the guest experience while still turning a large profit.

I fully support their efforts to make mounds of money, but if they are actually purposefully doing something to make the guest experience less pleasant (by increasing lines and perceived crowd levels unnecessarily) to encourage people to stay longer and purchase upsells, then that is just wrong. I don’t see how they could keep business practices like that for very long (employees talk and guests analyze) and still maintain a strong, positive reputation. Such practices would come back to haunt the company later, right?

 

[10CJ]

I'm told that they restrict the number of people on the elevator belt going up to the loading platform. That increases the number of empty cars, reduces capacity, and increases waits.
The two reasons I've heard for the restriction are: (1) to avoid breakdowns on the belt; and (2) to avoid pile-ups on the belt if the people who just got off don't make room for others.

So will this ride always run like this now? Will they ever fill all the cars?

 

[DLgal]

That picture looks like our experience in late July 2016.

We went Aug 2-6,2016 and it was DEAD! We were so shocked. Even our resort pool was usually empty (Grand Floridian). It was also NOT insanely hot/humid.

 

[hyden]

Dunno. I was there in mid-June 2017 and I can say that everything was hit or miss. A lot of rides broke down and had people waiting for 20+ minutes, and any ride that didn't break down didn't have a terrible wait time, except for the coasters.

 

[Sparkly]

Isn’t that just it though? All of the points in here have merit, and Len’s analytics are GREATLY appreciated, but in 2018, where almost everything is customizable and instant and data is king... how long can WDW keep asking people to pay $2k, $5k, $10k without giving them any sort of idea on crowd levels? How can you market it as a magical once in a lifetime trip but on the other hand be okay with guests having no clue what they are walking into? Or be okay misrepresenting wait times when people arrange their whole days around them? In 70s, 80s, 90s sure but they’re now using the data against the guest. It’s still working fine for them but may not last forever.

Because for most people, giving them the complete numbers would be far too much information! I know I would be overwhelmed by that. Disney's already quite complicated to plan for newbies, adding reading a detailed list of crowd numbers would be too much. Even for me planning a Disney trip after making a number of visits I don't really want to know every exact number.

 

[Louie7080]

As a former attractions CM, I highly doubt Disney is reducing attractions staff. Safety is #1 priority, and all rides have different positions that MUST be filled. It didn't matter if it is low or peak season, there was always the same number of CMs located at those positions. You can't take away CMs from attractions without compromising the safety of the guests. During "peak season" there may have been more CMs added to help with greeting, FP, stroller parking, etc. but the positions that deal with the actual running of the attraction, grouping guests, loading, and unloading never changed. Unless safety is being disregarded by Disney, staffing reduction for attractions just doesn't seem feasible.

Compariing numbers of people coming off attractions seems to be a better indicator than what you once observed as a CM. Perhaps Disney did an analysis that showed that decreasing staff and capacity would not impact safety. And what of crews that are supposed to be involved with maintenance? There is speculation that those are being cut too.

 

[rteetz]

As a former attractions CM, I highly doubt Disney is reducing attractions staff. Safety is #1 priority, and all rides have different positions that MUST be filled. It didn't matter if it is low or peak season, there was always the same number of CMs located at those positions. You can't take away CMs from attractions without compromising the safety of the guests. During "peak season" there may have been more CMs added to help with greeting, FP, stroller parking, etc. but the positions that deal with the actual running of the attraction, grouping guests, loading, and unloading never changed. Unless safety is being disregarded by Disney, staffing reduction for attractions just doesn't seem feasible.

This isn't a safety thing this is cost thing. Can can and will based on evidence reduce capacity at attractions. If you listen to the podcast even Craig who worked at Universal mentions that they would run at lower capacities during certain periods to allow for more maintenance time.

 

[rteetz]

One thing I find fascinating in this is the guest waiting aspect. It was always my assumption that Disney didn't want the guest waiting in lines all day because that meant they are not spending their money in dining and shopping locations. Obviously cutting capacity/staffing saves Disney money so I am sure that offsets the potential gains they would make from dining/shopping guests would be doing if they were not in those lines. Guests obviously are still doing the dining and shopping and waiting in lines too.

I am an avid listener of several Disney podcasts and always love the insight Len brings to whichever show he is on. I know in the past Len has said the benchmark for a successful day for a guest is 10 experiences. So if a guest has 10 experiences (rides, shows, meet and greets, etc.) that is a successful day for the guest. With these longer waits and higher crowds is that still the benchmark number? Is that number lower? Does that number matter anymore?

 

[whiporee]

One thing I find fascinating in this is the guest waiting aspect. It was always my assumption that Disney didn't want the guest waiting in lines all day because that meant they are not spending their money in dining and shopping locations. Obviously cutting capacity/staffing saves Disney money so I am sure that offsets the potential gains they would make from dining/shopping guests would be doing if they were not in those lines. Guests obviously are still doing the dining and shopping and waiting in lines too.

I am an avid listener of several Disney podcasts and always love the insight Len brings to whichever show he is on. I know in the past Len has said the benchmark for a successful day for a guest is 10 experiences. So if a guest has 10 experiences (rides, shows, meet and greets, etc.) that is a successful day for the guest. With these longer waits and higher crowds is that still the benchmark number? Is that number lower? Does that number matter anymore?

I think 10 still seems right. Three FPs, fireworks, parade, maybe one of the stage shows. Leaves about five of an nine hour day for other rides or M&Gs at 40 minutes on average wait time and still time for transit and eating and such (plus, the 40 minutes is probably high for most non-headliners). I've always heard the target number was seven rides so that would fit.

I don't think they're cutting staffing and I don't think they're cutting capacity beyond what you'd expect for normal seasonal and daily timing; I think there are more people and more time for shuffling them on and off rides (scooters were not much of a thing in the past). The reasons lines are long always is because there are 30,000 hotel rooms that have to be filled, which means 100,000 on-site guests Every. Single. Day. If 40 percent of them go to MK (which, if you look at the attendance estimates out there is the norm), then that crowd by itself used to be a 7 or 8 in the old days. People staying on site also tend to be more omnipresent -- getting there earlier and also staying later because it's simply easier to get back to your onsite hotel than to drive off site -- look at how empty the parking lots are on even busy days. If WDW really wanted to maximize their profits to the extent some accuse them of, they could jack the hotel rates up much higher and severely limit off-site availability -- make the parks a real feature of the resorts. They could get a lot of money if they made the resorts the ONLY way you could get to the parks on certain days. But they don't do that, even though they probably could.

I also think that the reservation system has added to the walkways feeling a lot more crowded, because a third of the people who used to be in line for 30-40 minutes are now walking around.

 

[Davey Jones II]

This is absolutely what is happening. I know so. I visit Disneyland a LOT. Like, once a week on average.

I went a month ago or so and it was a weekday but slightly crowded. Probably a 6 or 7. There was a long line at the train station and a lady was chatting up the CM there and asking why it was taking so long between trains. The CM said "Well technically, this is our slow time of year, so we only run 2 trains during the week." The lady was like, "Slow??? This is what you call slow?" The CM gave her that look like "Lady, you're preaching to the choir." But, true to form, she said something more along the lines of "Sometimes our projections are off but it's hard to get people to come in at the last minute so we can't make changes to our operations with the amount of staff we have on hand."

In a nutshell, Disney hasn't updated their staffing levels to reflect ACTUAL crowd levels, likely in several years. They are still operating on that arcane January through early March = Slow Season. Because updating their crowd projections is going to cost them more money in labor.

And we all know how overpaid those laborers are...

 

[Davey Jones II]

Isn’t that just it though? All of the points in here have merit, and Len’s analytics are GREATLY appreciated, but in 2018, where almost everything is customizable and instant and data is king... how long can WDW keep asking people to pay $2k, $5k, $10k without giving them any sort of idea on crowd levels? How can you market it as a magical once in a lifetime trip but on the other hand be okay with guests having no clue what they are walking into? Or be okay misrepresenting wait times when people arrange their whole days around them? In 70s, 80s, 90s sure but they’re now using the data against the guest. It’s still working fine for them but may not last forever.

I've visited Vegas a lot. I didn't know you had to roll the dice at Disney, too.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Okay, that's two sarcastic comments in a row. I will say one thing in Disney's defense: in another thread earlier this year, a poster was explaining (I THINK he was a CM) that it's actually faster to send through an empty car if guests are not yet ready to load. In other words, capacity is higher if you don't wait for guests, because then you slow down the ride. Since there is usually another ride vehicle right behind, let the guests have that one when they're ready to embark.

So that may explain some of the glaring incidents in which cars go out empty. Of course, it doesn't explain dwindling hourly capacity.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

One thing I find fascinating in this is the guest waiting aspect. It was always my assumption that Disney didn't want the guest waiting in lines all day because that meant they are not spending their money in dining and shopping locations. Obviously cutting capacity/staffing saves Disney money so I am sure that offsets the potential gains they would make from dining/shopping guests would be doing if they were not in those lines. Guests obviously are still doing the dining and shopping and waiting in lines too.

I am an avid listener of several Disney podcasts and always love the insight Len brings to whichever show he is on. I know in the past Len has said the benchmark for a successful day for a guest is 10 experiences. So if a guest has 10 experiences (rides, shows, meet and greets, etc.) that is a successful day for the guest. With these longer waits and higher crowds is that still the benchmark number? Is that number lower? Does that number matter anymore?

Hmmmm. Ten definitely seemed low to me so I just took a look at my TPs. They range from 15 to 20 non-dining experiences a day. HS is on the low end with more shows and M&Gs which typical take longer. MK is the high end with more quick short ‘filler’ rides. Admittedly, often (especially in the afternoon) my plans get chucked. We spend a lot of time with something that wasn’t in the plan. Tom Sawyer Island and Sorcerors are examples from last year. We are also not going to go shopping or do more eating than planned because we aren’t in line. We’re going to go stand in another experience line. We just aren’t big shoppers and our Disney appetite is what it is (which is higher than at home). So maybe Disney is finding that freeing people from lines isn’t really bumping up the revenue in other places. Maybe that’s the justification for reducing capacity on their side.

But even with a full 90 mins planned for TSI this year and plenty of free time for snack breaks I’m still at 20 experiences for MK that day. I would not consider 10 successful, in general (again, unless we chose to spend time on something else). People here often say that going on the holidays means you need to be happy with getting your 3 FPs and anything else is a bonus. We have not done a holiday week and have no plans to in part because I just can’t see myself being happy with that. If the regular park experience goes that route I think we would be out.

We’d be over at Uni using our Express Passes.

 

[mshanson3121]

I think 10 still seems right. Three FPs, fireworks, parade, maybe one of the stage shows. Leaves about five of an nine hour day for other rides or M&Gs at 40 minutes on average wait time and still time for transit and eating and such (plus, the 40 minutes is probably high for most non-headliners). I've always heard the target number was seven rides so that would fit.

I don't think they're cutting staffing and I don't think they're cutting capacity beyond what you'd expect for normal seasonal and daily timing; I think there are more people and more time for shuffling them on and off rides (scooters were not much of a thing in the past). The reasons lines are long always is because there are 30,000 hotel rooms that have to be filled, which means 100,000 on-site guests Every. Single. Day. If 40 percent of them go to MK (which, if you look at the attendance estimates out there is the norm), then that crowd by itself used to be a 7 or 8 in the old days. People staying on site also tend to be more omnipresent -- getting there earlier and also staying later because it's simply easier to get back to your onsite hotel than to drive off site -- look at how empty the parking lots are on even busy days. If WDW really wanted to maximize their profits to the extent some accuse them of, they could jack the hotel rates up much higher and severely limit off-site availability -- make the parks a real feature of the resorts. They could get a lot of money if they made the resorts the ONLY way you could get to the parks on certain days. But they don't do that, even though they probably could.

I also think that the reservation system has added to the walkways feeling a lot more crowded, because a third of the people who used to be in line for 30-40 minutes are now walking around.

The flaws in this are:

1. You're discrediting first hand accounts of people who are experiencing rides running at less capacity than they have in the past.
2. You're discrediting what Len has noticed.
3. You're assuming the hotels are maxed out/full. They're not.
4. You assume there are more guests. While it's too soon to tell for 2018, both 2016 and 2017 had drops in attendence. Now I will say thanks to crowd shifting previously slow times had more people, yes. But overall for the year, there were less people.
5. Just because Disney has common sense regards to hotel rates (what you suggest is not feasible), that doesn't mean they're not trying to price gouge/maximize their profits in as many ways as possible.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Okay, that's two sarcastic comments in a row. I will say one thing in Disney's defense: in another thread earlier this year, a poster was explaining (I THINK he was a CM) that it's actually faster to send through an empty car if guests are not yet ready to load. In other words, capacity is higher if you don't wait for guests, because then you slow down the ride. Since there is usually another ride vehicle right behind, let the guests have that one when they're ready to embark.

So that may explain some of the glaring incidents in which cars go out empty. Of course, it doesn't explain dwindling hourly capacity.

That makes a lot of sense for why you’d see a few cars here and there going out empty. I’m not sure what to think of only filling half of every People Mover train though.

 

[disneygirlsng]

Hmmmm. Ten definitely seemed low to me so I just took a look at my TPs. They range from 15 to 20 non-dining experiences a day. HS is on the low end with more shows and M&Gs which typical take longer. MK is the high end with more quick short ‘filler’ rides. Admittedly, often (especially in the afternoon) my plans get chucked. We spend a lot of time with something that wasn’t in the plan. Tom Sawyer Island and Sorcerors are examples from last year. We are also not going to go shopping or do more eating than planned because we aren’t in line. We’re going to go stand in another experience line. We just aren’t big shoppers and our Disney appetite is what it is (which is higher than at home). So maybe Disney is finding that freeing people from lines isn’t really bumping up the revenue in other places. Maybe that’s the justification for reducing capacity on their side.

But even with a full 90 mins planned for TSI this year and plenty of free time for snack breaks I’m still at 20 experiences for MK that day. I would not consider 10 successful, in general (again, unless we chose to spend time on something else). People here often say that going on the holidays means you need to be happy with getting your 3 FPs and anything else is a bonus. We have not done a holiday week and have no plans to in part because I just can’t see myself being happy with that. If the regular park experience goes that route I think we would be out.

We’d be over at Uni using our Express Passes.

This. I'm usually able to get at least 10 FPs at MK, and 6-7 at the other parks. I can't imagine that being all that I do. This includes my most recent trip the week of/after New Years this January. I noticed the park was more crowded in terms of number of people walking through and walkways being more crowded, but we were still able to get everything done that we wanted.