Jan 2018 wait times longer than Summer 2017: Disney reduced ride capacity

[jenniferhouston2]

I just listened to an excellent podcast here on the DIS for March 6, 2018. I linked it below, starting around the 30 minute mark.

It contains an interview with Len Testa who has objectively documented the reduced capacity of popular Disney rides. While there is speculation as to the reason or motivations for the reduced capacity, the reduced capacity is factual. The speculation is that Disney is purposely lowering capacity to save staffing costs and encouraging upsales on special event ticketing.

He also noted that January 2018 (when 95% of school children are in school) had longer ride wait times than the Summer of 2017 (when 95% of school children are out of school). It is worth a listen.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I haven’t had a chance to watch it yet but they were teasing they would have a crowd expert on the show (I was wondering if it was going to be Len or Josh).

I’m glad Len is able to track things like that. The only way to let Disney know that park goers don’t appreciate something is for it to come to light. A lot of people were unhappy with the wait times so far this year. Of course Disney is going to try to minimize their operating cost but they may have gone a little too far this time.

 

[WRLeGrand]

I watched this yesterday afternoon as well and thought it was quite a revelation. While the data was quite un-scientific (basically the expert just had someone outside of the ride counting the number of people that would come off per hour), it is sure to open a lot of eyes. If it bears out (which I have no reason to doubt it does/will) that they have reduced capacity on the rides, while raising prices and cutting hours, it is going to be a difficult thing for Disney to overcome or explain. I get that they want to have all seasons seem as if they are equal in importance, but I think that needs to be done in non-artificial ways. When I say this, I mean by way of enhanced discounts, dining, etc. I certainly do not think having people wait in inflated lines, while paying more is the way to go.

I understand that people still come back time-over-time (I am one of those people), but at some point people are going to stop enjoying the park. When that occurs, the downward spiral could be swift. For instance, we traveled to DW about two weeks ago and experienced 60-90 minute anticipated wait for Toy Story Mania in the FP+ line. Now I get that park is in a period of great transition, but come on. Fortunately, we were heading to EPCOT and were given an FP for Test Track...but you get the point.

Disney needs to reverse these trends ASAP!

 

[hsmamato2]

I listened to that today (Love Len) and it makes sense...the rides are 5% lower capacity which correlates with the crowd predictions going crazy...

 

[jenniferhouston2]

While the data was quite un-scientific (basically the expert just had someone outside of the ride counting the number of people that would come off per hour), it is sure to open a lot of eyes.

Right. As Disney will never release such information, the only way to ever know is to have someone like Len's group do the headcount and compare to their findings in the past. I think Len Testa is certainly credible to trust his group's headcounts.

And, I totally agree, WRLeGrand, I hope this capacity reduction gets reversed soon, but I have little hope for it. If Disney can reduce staff, reduce wear and tear on rides by lowering capacity, while raising general pricing and selling high priced special ticketed events, why would they stop?

 

[heidijanesmith]

Oh my goodness, I thought I was nuts thinking that our June 2017 trip way way less crowded than my Jan 2018 trip.

I thought that it was due to reduced hours at the parks, so every one was packed in as there was less park time. This makes sense!

 

[jenniferhouston2]

I also suspect that Disney intends for the reduced capacity to create a demand for longer vacations in order to get everything done...or at least upgraded hotel accommodations on Disney property to get greater and longer access to the parks.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Right. As Disney will never release such information, the only way to ever know is to have someone like Len's group do the headcount and compare to their findings in the past. I think Len Testa is certainly credible to trust his group's headcounts.

And, I totally agree, WRLeGrand, I hope this capacity reduction gets reversed soon, but I have little hope for it. If Disney can reduce staff, reduce wear and tear on rides by lowering capacity, while raising general pricing and selling high priced special ticketed events, why would they stop?

Very interesting point in there. People have been excusing the ride break downs on the theory that because there are so many more people in the parks that they are running at capacity all the time so more wear and tear. Maybe not.

 

[Imamom2]

We were there for Food and Wine and it was pretty crowded during what was expected to be a very low week. I do think the 2 very big hurricanes do have something to do with the crowds. So many people rebooked for Jan-Feb-Mar.

 

[soniam]

Loved this podcast. However, I love listening to Len talk about the science and processes behind Touring Plans. The customized plans are amazing and very addictive. I just finished updating ours for our trip next week. I am just hoping that they are using full capacity during our trip. I know park hours have been increased, and we will be taking advantage of those 7am starts. We are used to crowds at Spring Break, but I don't relish a NYE or Xmas crowd level when I hadn't really been prepared for it.

 

[tlmadden73]

What do people consider a "crowded" park?

Is it shoulder to shoulder people when trying to go from the carousel to Haunted Mansion?
Are there strollers overflowing everywhere?

Or do people consider it "crowded" simply based on wait times? Is a wait time of 90 minutes or more for SDMT a "busy" day?

To me, I think it is a combination of things:

- The economy is better
- The weather is just "better" in January than in the summer.
- People have no issues pulling kids from school to avoid the heat and supposed crowds.
- Sites like Touring Plans have been touting "January is the dead time" for 15+ years .. it is bound to catch on. I mean .. I have been going to Disney again a lot since 2014, but I haven't planned a summer trip because it is ground into my head that it is "super busy" .. so I am choosing to go in the much-advertised "low crowd" times.
- Social media helps push this "best time to go to Disney" to more people a lot easier.
- Disney pushes resort discounts during traditional slow times (thus making it more crowded)
- Disney creates all these events and festivals drawing TONS of extra people (and locals) to the parks in traditional slow times.
- DVC properties that encourage people to come back year after year.
- The average length of a Disney vacation has probably increased over the years (I mean . .when I was a kid in the 80s .. it was just something else to do for a day or two while in Florida . .not a 7-10 day vacation in itself).


.. and based on how heavily they pushed discounts for last summer, it just seems like summer isn't the high demand time to go anymore.

 

[WRLeGrand]

What do people consider a "crowded" park?

Is it shoulder to shoulder people when trying to go from the carousel to Haunted Mansion?
Are there strollers overflowing everywhere?

Or do people consider it "crowded" simply based on wait times? Is a wait time of 90 minutes or more for SDMT a "busy" day?

To me, I think it is a combination of things:

- The economy is better
- The weather is just "better" in January than in the summer.
- People have no issues pulling kids from school to avoid the heat and supposed crowds.
- Sites like Touring Plans have been touting "January is the dead time" for 15+ years .. it is bound to catch on. I mean .. I have been going to Disney again a lot since 2014, but I haven't planned a summer trip because it is ground into my head that it is "super busy" .. so I am choosing to go in the much-advertised "low crowd" times.
- Social media helps push this "best time to go to Disney" to more people a lot easier.
- Disney pushes resort discounts during traditional slow times (thus making it more crowded)
- Disney creates all these events and festivals drawing TONS of extra people (and locals) to the parks in traditional slow times.
- DVC properties that encourage people to come back year after year.
- The average length of a Disney vacation has probably increased over the years (I mean . .when I was a kid in the 80s .. it was just something else to do for a day or two while in Florida . .not a 7-10 day vacation in itself).


.. and based on how heavily they pushed discounts for last summer, it just seems like summer isn't the high demand time to go anymore.

I agree that all of these are contributing factors, but it discounts the fact that they are not working at the their full capacity, which is a problem when wait times are much higher than they have ever been for many of the rides. I do not think people are complaining about a 90 minute wait for Mine Train, but I can see a complaint for 50-60 minutes for Dumbo in January. I mean come on...

 

[LandonDunes]

What do people consider a "crowded" park?

Is it shoulder to shoulder people when trying to go from the carousel to Haunted Mansion?
Are there strollers overflowing everywhere?

Or do people consider it "crowded" simply based on wait times? Is a wait time of 90 minutes or more for SDMT a "busy" day?

To me, I think it is a combination of things:

- The economy is better
- The weather is just "better" in January than in the summer.
- People have no issues pulling kids from school to avoid the heat and supposed crowds.
- Sites like Touring Plans have been touting "January is the dead time" for 15+ years .. it is bound to catch on. I mean .. I have been going to Disney again a lot since 2014, but I haven't planned a summer trip because it is ground into my head that it is "super busy" .. so I am choosing to go in the much-advertised "low crowd" times.
- Social media helps push this "best time to go to Disney" to more people a lot easier.
- Disney pushes resort discounts during traditional slow times (thus making it more crowded)
- Disney creates all these events and festivals drawing TONS of extra people (and locals) to the parks in traditional slow times.
- DVC properties that encourage people to come back year after year.
- The average length of a Disney vacation has probably increased over the years (I mean . .when I was a kid in the 80s .. it was just something else to do for a day or two while in Florida . .not a 7-10 day vacation in itself).


.. and based on how heavily they pushed discounts for last summer, it just seems like summer isn't the high demand time to go anymore.

You make some great points here. We did our first family trip 8 years ago in October because we heard from several sites that was a better time to go. Went again in Oct 4 years ago and it was a little more crowded. Going this Oct and am planning on it being even more crowded. I am willing to take my kids out of school over a Fall break and only miss 2-3 days of school because I don’t want sweltering heat and I want, what I perceive to be, lower crowds. I’m also doing CL so I can buy extra FP. Mickey be like “Cha Ching” all year long.

 

[dlavender]

I do buy that it may be busier crowd wise, but I don't buy that the crowds are so intense that barnstormer should have a 50 min wait.

With my tin foil hat on....

It's no secret that WDW has fallen head over heals for these upsells.

These upsells are predicated on the notion that if one wants to accomplish anything without large crowds and long waits, then they need to "splurge".

It's hard to sell 1 hour early access for $70 bucks when the need isnt there.

It's hard to sell 3 hour late access for $100 bucks when the need isnt there.

I don't doubt at all that while crowds may be up, WDW is manipulating their wait times to some degree to encourage these "splurges"......

 

[disneyseniors]

Yes, I don't like all these upsells for things that used to be free for everyone.
They won't get my money for any of these, but unfortunately, many people will pay the price for less crowds. It's sad.

 

[mom2rtk]

I also suspect that Disney intends for the reduced capacity to create a demand for longer vacations in order to get everything done...or at least upgraded hotel accommodations on Disney property to get greater and longer access to the parks.

I actually don't even thing it's that complicated. I think they just want to maintain their 24% margin in the parks and possibly push it higher. Front line employees are expensive, even without a very high wage. So much of what Disney does is about minimizing staffing.

And this isn't about fastpass per se. But it's definitely about the My Magic system that FP is part of. Those bands yield a huge amount of data. That data is used to "right size" capacity and staffing in the parks. The problem of course that the "right size" as Disney defines it is much different from how most of us would define it.

 

[soniam]

I actually don't even thing it's that complicated. I think they just want to maintain their 24% margin in the parks and possibly push it higher. Front line employees are expensive, even without a very high wage. So much of what Disney does is about minimizing staffing.

And this isn't about fastpass per se. But it's definitely about the My Magic system that FP is part of. Those bands yield a huge amount of data. That data is used to "right size" capacity and staffing in the parks. The problem of course that the "right size" as Disney defines it is much different from how most of us would define it.

Yep, I think they are starting to try to reap the benefits of all that data. This is mostly what the whole MDE project was supposed to do. Save money and make more money.

 

[MermaidMommy]

Josh posted some wait times recently, and he pointed out that wait times were lower over President’s Day that they were during earlier weeks in February. If this capacity-lessening trend continues, it might end up that traditionally busy times will be the better times to go because Disney will have higher levels of staffing. That would really turn planning on its head....

 

[DG-12]

We’ve been during almost every part of the year.
We were there in July and November 2017.
July was definitely less crowded than our November trip.
And we are headed back this summer.
I’ll just add if you look at availability for hotels and dining- right now- there is better availability for July than September.

 

[iZon]

I’m not sure how lowering capacity saves staff. You still need people loading and running the rides regardless of how many boats or cars are on the track, and having longer lines means more people for crowd control. Also, people in line are not spending money. I would think that longer lines are due to other factors.