Island Tower at Polynesian Villas & Bungalows

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Not really, and @tx911 gives good reasons why. The primary goal of a separate gate is to take up more vacation time. But the average US vacation is about four days and getting shorter---the set they have is already about as big as US vacation patterns allow.

Foreign visitors stay for quite a bit longer, but that's probably not a large enough segment to justify the investment.
I agree, expansion and replacement will be the way forward. So much they can still do with the existing parks. For the reasons already said, I don't see how a 5th gate would lead to more net visitors/revenue.

If they follow through with planned/hinted/rumored expansions, WDW is on a good path, IMO. As long as the execution is good. They still know how to build great stuff if the money and the will is there, which it seems to be (they're at least saying the right things)

d23 this year will be interesting. If we get some solid, concrete announcements of expansion plans, and not more "here's some vague stuff we drew pictures of, that we may or may not build (probably not), at an unspecified time in the distant future" junk like the last 2, I'll be cautiously optimistic about the next 5-10 years.
 
...which is exactly what they've been doing, dating back to New Fantasyland in MK, and including: the Pandoraverse in AK; Galaxy's Edge and Toy Story Land in DS; the France expansion, the third Soarin' theater, and arguably Guardians in EP; and Tron in MK. This is continuing with the South America updates in AK plus Beyond Big Thunder in MK, assuming those both happen.

Some of those updates may not have added theoretical capacity, but definitely added "practical capacity" by replacing unpopular things with more popular updates. A high-capacity attraction that doesn't draw well does not help the park meet its capacity goals because there are not people on it/in line waiting for it, and those people are somewhere else doing something else instead.
I would argue that Disney doesn't want people "in-line" all day long. More experiences with shorter lines means people are spending less time being unhappy in line and more time being happy while riding, shopping, eating, etc. (spending more money). Otherwise they would get rid of virtual queue and let the guests rot in 8 hour lines for Tron and Guardians. Yuck!

So a high capacity ride with a short wait time can actually be better for Disney than a lower capacity ride with a high wait time. Or better yet, you can have BOTH if you build new instead of replace! A ride with a capacity of 1000 guests/hour running at 700 guests/hour due to being a walk-on with no line is arguably better for Disney than a ride with a 500 guest/hour capacity running at full 500/hour capacity with a long line. So why not just have both? Why even try to add a small amount of capacity when you could double it? They were being cheap, but now they have committed to spending more.

I do agree that the rides they make should be good rides that will attract guests. I am never going to argue for cheap or bad experiences. And I love some of the new things they have done like Guardians! But they definitely need to expand and build new (unless there is a good reason), not to replace. It increases capacity much quicker and they have been expanding their on-site rooms and the Polynesian Island Tower is opening soon. Adding 3 rides in each park this way adds 12 rides vs replacing which could add a whole day or more to some vacations if they were good experiences.

Building new helps even out the lines between all the experiences, and leaving the old experiences there is a good way to keep guests happy, even if they don't draw long lines. I love hopping in line for a couple of short wait experiences when it's super hot or I have an hour to kill before a LL or dining reservation. It also helps the parks during the expansion. When they replace a ride they are down 1 ride during the construction then back to the same number of rides when finished. With expansion, they are down 0 rides during construction, up 1 ride once complete, and when one of them goes under refurbishment they are still only at the original number of rides, never being "down" a ride from where they started.
 
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more time being happy while riding, shopping, eating, etc. (spending more money).
As it happens, this was the initial justification for creating Fastpass and making it free--guests in line do not spend money, and getting them out of line means more money spent. So, the investment would pay for itself.

The only problem with that is that it did not happen. If you go back and look at the relevant financial reports, there was no unexpected jump in per-capita in-park spending that coincided with Fastpass' deployment. And, if you think about it, that makes sense. I am not suddenly going to eat a fourth meal every day, nor do I need Yet Another Baseball Cap.

Instead, what did most guests do when they had a Fastpass? They got in some other line.

As to the right mix of waiting/experiencing--it is a balance. More experiences cost more money to build and to operate. But longer waits lead to much less happy guests. Disney is fanatical about measuring customer sentiment. They are CONSTANTLY surveying guests about their experience, so they have a pretty good sense for what the average person thinks about the parks.

Queues also play an important role for park capacity--they are a place where guests can congregate at very high density, so they are very a very efficient place to put people.
 
This is me! I was saving up to buy poly but they took so long, and then the rooms were so beige, so I booked a DCL cruise instead! I keep asking myself if I should reconsider and add on dvc points but now that I’ve had time to get excited about cruising, I think I’ll just stick with what we have points-wise and try to fit in a cruise every year or two instead.
We just booked our first DCL cruise! We were going to buy CFW, but the dues ended up too high, so we were going to buy more direct points to use there at 7 months, but now we are holding off on more points. Maybe we will eventually do Poly or more SSR resale points.
 

As it happens, this was the initial justification for creating Fastpass and making it free--guests in line do not spend money, and getting them out of line means more money spent. So, the investment would pay for itself.

The only problem with that is that it did not happen. If you go back and look at the relevant financial reports, there was no unexpected jump in per-capita in-park spending that coincided with Fastpass' deployment. And, if you think about it, that makes sense. I am not suddenly going to eat a fourth meal every day, nor do I need Yet Another Baseball Cap.

Instead, what did most guests do when they had a Fastpass? They got in some other line.

As to the right mix of waiting/experiencing--it is a balance. More experiences cost more money to build and to operate. But longer waits lead to much less happy guests. Disney is fanatical about measuring customer sentiment. They are CONSTANTLY surveying guests about their experience, so they have a pretty good sense for what the average person thinks about the parks.

Queues also play an important role for park capacity--they are a place where guests can congregate at very high density, so they are very a very efficient place to put people.
And the most efficient place to make them unhappy lol.

Fastpass is different than naturally shorter lines. That gave everyone the ability to effectively be in 2 lines at once so they were able to "do everything" faster. Then they could just go home or go take a nap. Doing 10 rides with a half hour wait vs 5 rides with an hour wait still takes 5 hours in the park, you just got to ride more rides and wait less time in line, have a better experience, be happier, and be more likely to come back.

Getting to ride those 5 rides using fastpass in around 2.5 hours would be a completely different beast, and they ended up charging for it anyway with Genie+/Multipass now.

I think most guests would agree that more rides with shorter waits are better than less rides with longer waits, assuming they are rides of the same quality of course. It just costs more to build, which it looks like Disney has hopefully decided to pony up for! 🤞
 
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I certainly have my own opinions about how to run a better theme park. But I am willing to believe that the company who actually has been running the most successful theme parks in the world might know more than I do.
They definitely know how to make money! And of course every ride can't be a walk on, but I think they know that some real expansion is finally needed and some extra money invested now will definitely help them for the future. They have verbally committed a lot to the parks, now let's see what they do with it!

Their movies and animations typically make a ton of money as well but they had some stinkers there recently, so they aren't infallible of course.

And they definitely know that guests hate crazy long lines, as any big new attraction typically opens with a virtual queue now.
 
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One thing I appreciate with the expansions/modifications to the WDW parks is a multiple path access change.

Camp Minnie-Mickey used to be a dead end. You entered the area and left the area the same path. Pandora has the main entrance, but there is a nice path along the water from there to AK.
All too often TSM was a walk in/out of the area using the same path. They connected Toy Story Land with Star Wars Land.
Epcot is opened up far more up front. Makes what was Ellen's replaced by Guardians feel like less of a dead end.

Really hoping they make the Beyond Big Thunder area connect to Fantasyland or Haunted Mansion area so there are multiple paths.
 
One thing I appreciate with the expansions/modifications to the WDW parks is a multiple path access change.

Camp Minnie-Mickey used to be a dead end. You entered the area and left the area the same path. Pandora has the main entrance, but there is a nice path along the water from there to AK.
All too often TSM was a walk in/out of the area using the same path. They connected Toy Story Land with Star Wars Land.
Epcot is opened up far more up front. Makes what was Ellen's replaced by Guardians feel like less of a dead end.

Really hoping they make the Beyond Big Thunder area connect to Fantasyland or Haunted Mansion area so there are multiple paths.
I want them to expand Hollywood Studios and loop the end of sunset blvd back to the entrance to Toy Story Land!
 
I mean, they will need a 5th gate eventually. It’s now been as long since AK opened as it was from MK->AK. Epic Universe looks amazing and is going to put a lot of pressure on. The main thing holding back Florida expansion would be the targeting by the state government, and wanting to wait for a more cooperative business environment. FL makes a lot more sense than a third resort elsewhere in the US.
I don’t think a 5th gate in FL makes much sense as it is less efficient than expanding existing parks…maybe adding an additional gate for MK so everybody isn’t bottlenecking down Main St at peak times?

Aside from diversifying risk out of FL, another reason to add a gate in the middle of the country is (a) get more people who can only drive for one reason or another, (b) could possibly get major subsidies from a state government looking for jobs, infrastructure, and tourist draws, and (c) sell more DVC, naturally. People are paying up for VDH not because it’s particularly good but because they are worried they can’t get in with SAP. If the new park in TX/AL/GA/OK/NM is good, many of us will be like “oh no, I need another 100 points for my home resort at Disney Adventure Park”.

I don’t actually expect them to do it soon (I’m still hoping for my DVC ski resort, lol) but I would not necessarily a expect a brand new park to be situated in FL or CA.
 
some sort of paid food/firework offering
I've thought all along it's some sort of event space...or something where access is limited to those that pay
We went with friends & their 5 year old last year in November. AK was her first Disney day ever, and she must have spent more than 2 hours at the Dig Site! (Hour in morning, hour+ in late afternoon after meeting Moana nearby)
For three summers in a row my kid has played in the Dig site and this last time I thought to myself...enjoy it bc they're ripping it out! Love the spaces where young kids can play. I'm very sure Walt would've wanted as many of those spaces as possible
 
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