Is another recession coming?

[NotUrsula]

Remember Colleen, we are talking "in general" and over the last 30-40 years. As a general rule in our country, our standard of living has gone through the roof. Only recently has it flat lined. Remember, the market conditions and economic conditions that you're describing have only come about since 2007 when the housing market fell. Prior to that people where seeing 20-30 even 50% growth in their houses and we all thought it would last forever. Remember the tv showm "flip my house"? people were buying houses and immediately "flipping" them for huge profits.

As a whole we're are a society that got use to playing "kick the can" both individually and with our government. credit became free and easy and like kids on a sugar high, we dove in!!
...

What I think we are saying is the fundementally our society has shifted and whether we like it or not we've been "living la vida loca" for the last 3-4 decades on phoney, unsustainable conditions. Now the problem is we've got to fix this problem but unfortunately no one wants "their" situation to change.

I think that a huge part of this is simple marketing. There is such media saturation in our era that the marketing is so in your face that it is nearly impossible to escape from or ignore it; you really have to want to.

The marketing-resistant are still out there, and yes, we are a minority, but there are probably more of us than most people think. However, we are also unusually strong-willed. The vast majority of people are very susceptible to slick marketing, and when they are bombarded with messages that something is a must-do or a must-have, they fall right into line.

Even journalism these days is heavily market-oriented. News outlets these days all tailor their coverage to appeal to a certain demographic that the advertisers of their networks' programming departments wish to reach.

Two days ago I bought a smartphone. I didn't want it; I still think the cost of the service for it is obscene, though I admit that some of the things it can do are kind of neat. I don't want it because I'm not a phone talker; I've been completely happy with the pay-by-the-minute cheapie that I've had for years, and I maybe use 40 minutes of time per month. So why did I buy it? Because my job requires it now, and they do not supply phones anymore because MOST people who work here were already carrying one and don't want to have to carry two of them. Mine is still a pre-paid, though -- the cheapest one that I could find that had the features my company required.

So sometimes I have to cave and follow the crowd when it involves my job, but most of the time I'm a GDI. It takes strength to be one, though, and it always has, and not everyone has that kind of strength, just the same as not everyone had it in 1962. (Remember CIGARETTES? My Dad quit smoking in 1945 because he thought he was spending too much money on it -- everyone he knew thought he was nuts.) We don't have a plasma TV, and we don't have personal laptops, and we don't have Frette linens, and we don't have Britax carseats, and we don't have a $150/mo wireless phone plan. I've never set foot inside a Starbucks, though people oddly give me GC for them all the time (I donate them to the school auction to put them in the prize baskets.) What we do have is an 1100 sq. ft. paid-for house for our family of four; people thought we were really foolish to pay off our house back when everyone else was playing the market with their equity.

PS: 3000 sq. feet with a pool for a family of 3 *is* a mansion by my lights.

 

[Muushka]

Not by me! I thought you were spot-on.

I definitely see people who wouldn't be in trouble if they didn't have their priorities wrong. For example, my cousin who came into some money after being unemployed for several months . . . what'd he pay first. Cable TV. He "needed" it turned back on. And I see plenty of kids at school who drive their own personal cars, have all the same "extras" that other kids do, yet they get free breakfast and lunch every day.

Not by me either. I remember that thread. (Shudder)

So many thought they "deserved" those cell phones.

Scary stuff. And exactly why we are where we are today.

I got by with a little help from my friends

Things are definately tough, and will probably get tougher. But things in this country have GOT to change. We have to loose the mentality that we can take care of eveyone in every capacity. We can't keep troops deployed around the world and like someone stated earlier, we can't keep living off borrowed money(credit cards). I don't want to sound like a grouch, but I'm tired of 45% of my paycheck being gone before I see a dime of it.

You won't hear me call you a grouch!

 

[OceanAnnie]

Muushka

It's so bewildering that the same sentiments surrounding those dang cell phones are pervasive and run deep all throughout Washington. They don't get it. They don't want the cuts. But we don't have the money to pay the bills.

Something has to give.

 

[punkin]

Cell phones.....I have a "stupid" phone and am perfectly happy with it, but the rest of my family rebelled last week and got brand new smart phones. They actually called me a Luddite when I refused to join them in this fiscal fiasco. DH paid for the girls' phones but they are paying for the data plan themselves from allowances, birthday money, jobs. I will get my revenge though, by serving beans and rice every day this week! (joke here)

 

[Muushka]

Muushka

It's so bewildering that the same sentiments surrounding those dang cell phones are pervasive and run deep all throughout Washington. They don't get it. They don't want the cuts. But we don't have the money to pay the bills.

Something has to give.

And yet we are made to look like the cold hearted people who just don't understand. WAKE UP WASHINGTON!!!

Cell phones.....I have a "stupid" phone and am perfectly happy with it, but the rest of my family rebelled last week and got brand new smart phones. They actually called me a Luddite when I refused to join them in this fiscal fiasco. DH paid for the girls' phones but they are paying for the data plan themselves from allowances, birthday money, jobs. I will get my revenge though, by serving beans and rice every day this week! (joke here)

I love it! I have a stupid phone too! (with one of the lame, no frills $30 a month plans, which I can easily afford ).

 

[OceanAnnie]

And yet we are made to look like the cold hearted people who just don't understand. WAKE UP WASHINGTON!!!



I love it! I have a stupid phone too! (with one of the lame, no frills $30 a month plans, which I can easily afford ).

Cold hearted, too stupid to understand, you name it. Oh the irony.

Wake up Washington is right!

 

[Colleen27]

Remember Colleen, we are talking "in general" and over the last 30-40 years. As a general rule in our country, our standard of living has gone through the roof. Only recently has it flat lined. Remember, the market conditions and economic conditions that you're describing have only come about since 2007 when the housing market fell. Prior to that people where seeing 20-30 even 50% growth in their houses and we all thought it would last forever. Remember the tv showm "flip my house"? people were buying houses and immediately "flipping" them for huge profits.

As a whole we're are a society that got use to playing "kick the can" both individually and with our government. credit became free and easy and like kids on a sugar high, we dove in!!

Please don't ever think that I don't see or empathize with those that are suffering. I 1000% do. I work my churchs food bank/ job center, I see and hear the stories 3X's a week. I see who is coming in and I like to think I am extremely concious of the fact that "there but by the grace of God, go I".

What I think we are saying is the fundementally our society has shifted and whether we like it or not we've been "living la vida loca" for the last 3-4 decades on phoney, unsustainable conditions. Now the problem is we've got to fix this problem but unfortunately no one wants "their" situation to change.

I think I see things a bit differently because of where I live... In Michigan this has been happening a LOT longer than just the last few years. The erosion of working/lower middle class wages has been a fact of life for longer than I can remember, as have the layoffs and plant closings and jobs going overseas. We didn't see the huge gains in housing values - my parents paid 80K in '79 for a house that at the peak of the market was worth about 130K - but we saw the bust in spades (some of those same houses are selling now for 30-40K).

Easy credit let some people live high on the hog, but it let a lot more pay for car repairs and medical bills and groceries that their salaries won't cover and the fallout from the end of that era is hitting those folks hard because what they're waking up to is the realization that they haven't made enough money to make ends meet since the 80s. That's the can we're still kicking down the road - not the simple fact of debt but the fundamental change in our economy from one with a large, strong middle/consumer class to one in limbo because it depends upon a large consumer class that cannot be sustained on service-industry wages.

 

[eliza61]

And yet we are made to look like the cold hearted people who just don't understand. WAKE UP WASHINGTON!!!



I love it! I have a stupid phone too! (with one of the lame, no frills $30 a month plans, which I can easily afford ).

Naw never cold hearted but I do think some times short sighted. or maybe the media just portrays those who want to cut social programs that way. I always ask the questions, "Ok so we end every single social program today" and then what? What do you do with the millions upon millions of seniors who depend on medicare and social security? the millions upon millions of chldren who depend on food stamps to exists. Unfortunately it's not enough to say "well I grew up poor and no one helped me". Do these people some how disappear?

Do we really think hey, lets just stop medicaid and there will no longer be a burden on our nation or do we simply turn into India where 1/4 of the country live in abject misery? We tried that in NYC when they decide to just abruptly stop welfare when the state decided to cut funding by 1/2. Only problem was those people didn't go away. homelessness skyrocketed. so then they tried to lock up the vagrants, well we ended up spending way more money in tax dollars to house the homelessness. crime skyrocketed because basically people simply started bopping people over their heads to survive.

So ok, you're wish is granted. all social spending, food stamps, medicaid, welfare, ssi, medicare is all gone today. What do you do with the people this has effected? and remember not all of them are non working, lazy slobs, many are working poor.

 

[OceanAnnie]

There are so many, many places that can and should be cut. The people that work "for" us have perks that none of us have. Deluxe health care, hefty salaries, special postal service, haircuts, use of department vehicles, golden parachutes that rival any "bad filthy rich" CEO, ad nauseam. Cut it all.

That's just a start.

 

[Muushka]

Naw never cold hearted but I do think some times short sighted. or maybe the media just portrays those who want to cut social programs that way. I always ask the questions, "Ok so we end every single social program today" and then what? What do you do with the millions upon millions of seniors who depend on medicare and social security? the millions upon millions of chldren who depend on food stamps to exists. Unfortunately it's not enough to say "well I grew up poor and no one helped me". Do these people some how disappear?

Do we really think hey, lets just stop medicaid and there will no longer be a burden on our nation or do we simply turn into India where 1/4 of the country live in abject misery? We tried that in NYC when they decide to just abruptly stop welfare when the state decided to cut funding by 1/2. Only problem was those people didn't go away. homelessness skyrocketed. so then they tried to lock up the vagrants, well we ended up spending way more money in tax dollars to house the homelessness. crime skyrocketed because basically people simply started bopping people over their heads to survive.

So ok, you're wish is granted. all social spending, food stamps, medicaid, welfare, ssi, medicare is all gone today. What do you do with the people this has effected? and remember not all of them are non working, lazy slobs, many are working poor.

or maybe the media just portrays those who want to cut social programs that way.

Yes, it is amazing where you get your news from will have influence on what you think. I often watch different stations to see what is being peddled, shocking the difference between the different news medias. Also, whether anyone wants to believe it or not, there is a bias, not saying which way of course.

I always ask the questions, "Ok so we end every single social program today" and then what?

I am not advocating cutting every single welfare program. It is too late for that and there are always legitimate needs out there that you simply can't cut loose. What I am advocating, as Annie said above, is cutting the fat, the perks. As far as welfare, how about what happened in 1995 with Clinton and the Rep Congress, cutting programs like they did? Trimming the fat. Only allowing welfare to be a temporary need rather than a lifestyle. As someone who grew up in poverty (as you know), it is a great push to never be poor again. We never received any help whatsoever. I lived. It was not fun, but I survived.

Unfortunately it's not enough to say "well I grew up poor and no one helped me". Do these people some how disappear?

Yes, poor me. I keep singing that same song. But no, not poor me, it made me strong. I didn't disappear, did I?

As far as the rest of your post, ask a different question, I did not say welfare as we know it should end right now.

Oh, and

 

[eliza61]

There are so many, many places that can and should be cut. The people that work "for" us have perks that none of us have. Deluxe health care, hefty salaries, special postal service, haircuts, use of department vehicles, golden parachutes that rival any "bad filthy rich" CEO, ad nauseam. Cut it all.

That's just a start.

Yes, it is amazing where you get your news from will have influence on what you think. I often watch different stations to see what is being peddled, shocking the difference between the different news medias. Also, whether anyone wants to believe it or not, there is a bias, not saying which way of course.

cut loose. What I am advocating, as Annie said above, is cutting the fat, the perks. As far as welfare, how about what happened in 1995 with Clinton and the Rep Congress, cutting programs like they did? Trimming the fat. Only allowing welfare to be a temporary need rather than a lifestyle. As someone who grew up in poverty (as you know), it is a great push to never be poor again. We never received any help whatsoever. I lived. It was not fun, but I survived.



Yes, poor me. I keep singing that same song. But no, not poor me, it made me strong. I didn't disappear, did I?

As far as the rest of your post, ask a different question, I did not say welfare as we know it should end right now.

Oh, and

LOL... my bad. I actually knew you didn't mean that. What I meant was that these are the things we need to figure out.

I totally agree that pork needs to be cut.

 

[Muushka]

LOL... my bad. I actually knew you didn't mean that. What I meant was that these are the things we need to figure out.

I totally agree that pork needs to be cut.

Pork and lots of other things. Otherwise, we will all be sunk.

 

[OceanAnnie]

I think many of those elected officials that live in Washington don't get it because they are paid so well and they don't have to follow the same tax laws as we do. They live in a different world. Budgeting is foreign to them. Everything is handed to them. They get the best of everything. So how could they relate to balancing a budget?

We need our officials to get back to the basics. Then maybe they will understand.

 

[punkin]

As someone who grew up in poverty (as you know), it is a great push to never be poor again. We never received any help whatsoever. I lived. It was not fun, but I survived.

Well we did receive help. My mother (and her 2 children) received welfare and food-stamps and section 8 while she went to school to be able to make a living. We lived with my grandmother who also received SSI. We barely made it, but were never actually hungry. Because of this temporary help, my mother could afford to support us after two years and the welfare payments stopped. Soon after, she remarried and everything else stopped, but we were solidly into the middle class by then. Two years of welfare and then a lifetime of working and paying taxes, raising two college educated children(with advanced degrees): that's what welfare allows rather than creating a permanent under-class. Sure, there's abuse of the system (I've seen it myself) but I can't see dismantling the whole thing because of a few cheaters. The system worked for us the way it was supposed to. I wouldn't want to deny other children the chance I had.

ETA: I'm not disagreeing with you, BTW. I think things probably need to be revamped. I just wanted to tell you my experience in the system.

 

[punkin]

LOL... my bad. I actually knew you didn't mean that. What I meant was that these are the things we need to figure out.

I totally agree that pork needs to be cut.

Yes, yes, yes. We are all against the "bridges to nowhere," no matter our political affiliation.

 

[HHSTigerFan]

Another example of "who is making these decisions?"...

State of Illinois is broke, can't pay their bills... yet in the area I live in they just started a $57M project that will reconfigure an interstate exchange (is that the right term?), they say it will be easier for people to exit and enter the interstate... REALLY??? Is that something we should be spending money on right now?

 

[OceanAnnie]

Another example of "who is making these decisions?"...

State of Illinois is broke, can't pay their bills... yet in the area I live in they just started a $57M project that will reconfigure an interstate exchange (is that the right term?), they say it will be easier for people to exit and enter the interstate... REALLY??? Is that something we should be spending money on right now?

It's like that all over the nation. Obscene amounts of money for projects yet no money to pay the bills.

There should be a way to break the cycle of insanity. Put the monies to use that is dire. Break away from the red tape and use some common sense.

 

[CandleontheWater]

]
Exactly - although my past generation may be one back a bit further than yours because they didn't have "house payments" or "car payments".. They built their homes as the money became available - week to week, month to month - or they lived with their parents until they had saved enough money to pay cash for a reasonably sized home.. Most people who purchased cars (and many, many did not), saved up until they could pay cash for a used one and then saved again - while running that one until it just wouldn't run anymore - before paying cash for a new or "newer" one.. And two car families??? Yeah - the rich and the famous.. Appliances were repaired when the need arose - not replaced on credit.. Furniture was replaced when it wore out - not because someone wanted a different color, different style, the newest design.. Rarely did people use credit to purchase things - and certainly not for the gadgets that so many today insist are "necessary"..

Somewhere along the way this country became a "throw-away" society that won't settle for anything less but instant gratification - the biggest and the best - regardless of the cost.. (And that includes our government..)

]


This totally cracked me up. I had this mental image of my and my husband and son attempting to build our own house, here outside of Washington DC. Maybe tomorrow, I'll give it a shot, I'll go commandeer some corner of a parking lot, or take over someone else's front lawn, and then I'll go out and look for trees I can cut down to build my house. I wonder how far I'll get!

Seriously, maybe 200 years ago you could go steal some land from Native Americans, cut down some logs and build yourself a cabin, but I doubt that is really going to work for me today.

Staying with your family is all well and good, but my family was well within their rights to kick me out after I turned 18.

I'm also not saying you're wrong, but there is a real reason why we have two car families today, and didn't in the 50's. "Back in the day" women stayed home and watched the kids, but today most families have dual incomes. The two incomes are necessary to survive, because the cost of living has risen and our earning power has decreased. You can give up the cable and cell bill along with all the fancy extras, and still not have enough money to live with just one income- just sayin'

I know that people can take public transportation, and I'm lucky to live in a place where that is a reality. I barely drive our car, and we'd get rid of it, but we're likely going to move back to Florida where there is no dependable public transportation. Unfortunately that is mostly due to government budget cuts, so really you can't have it both ways.

Also back in the day you could walk to work, because we were primarily an agrarian society and those that lived in cities lived near to where they worked (or just ran businesses out of their home). That would be awesome and all, but I don't think that the corner of parking lot that I am going to build my log cabin on is very fertile.

I also know that people used to keep things like furniture and clothes longer, but I think we all can agree that's because they were built to last. My DH and I bought couches about a year after we were married (we had gotten really tired of sitting on the floor or our one folding chair- I know that probably makes us greedy), we bought what we could afford, and unfortunately they aren't doing too well. They are getting saggy and worn, and we've really done our best to take care of them. I don't want to get rid of them, and I'm sure we'll still stick it out for years, but it isn't always that people want to get rid of their stuff, but that their stuff fails them when it comes to longevity.

 

[CloveLeaf]

You are the uninformed one. I personally know many H1B engineers that are not paid prevailing wages. It is done by putting a second company between the H1B and Microsoft or the like. Microsoft pays the intermediary prevailing wages and then pays the H1B 1/3 of the salary and then make them work 60-80 hours per week for the 40 hour wage. If they don't, the company threatens to revoke their H1B and they have to go home. Many also us companies in India and China as the intermediary and they come to the US on an H1B but are under the control of the foreign company.

Prevailing wages are also subjective.

I have heard of this kind of company. And most of the H1B workers working for this sort of companies came from India. Microsoft pays the prevailing wage. However, the so called "consulting" company takes the 2/3 out of it. Since last year, USCIS has been going after this sort of companies and the number of H1B visas issued to them have been greatly reduced. I hate these companies too. What they have been doing is so wrong and disgusting.

 

[nunzia]

Naw never cold hearted but I do think some times short sighted. or maybe the media just portrays those who want to cut social programs that way. I always ask the questions, "Ok so we end every single social program today" and then what? What do you do with the millions upon millions of seniors who depend on medicare and social security? the millions upon millions of chldren who depend on food stamps to exists. Unfortunately it's not enough to say "well I grew up poor and no one helped me". Do these people some how disappear?

Do we really think hey, lets just stop medicaid and there will no longer be a burden on our nation or do we simply turn into India where 1/4 of the country live in abject misery? We tried that in NYC when they decide to just abruptly stop welfare when the state decided to cut funding by 1/2. Only problem was those people didn't go away. homelessness skyrocketed. so then they tried to lock up the vagrants, well we ended up spending way more money in tax dollars to house the homelessness. crime skyrocketed because basically people simply started bopping people over their heads to survive.

So ok, you're wish is granted. all social spending, food stamps, medicaid, welfare, ssi, medicare is all gone today. What do you do with the people this has effected? and remember not all of them are non working, lazy slobs, many are working poor.

I don't think people want them to GO AWAY, just be more judicial in how these things are handed out..we will have to be weaned off these programs..they can't just be cut off..and no one is saying that that will happen..except shrill fear baiters..and oh..poor 90 year old won't get her SS check. shame on THEM for threatening that. The country has plenty of money coming in to pay those things and if they CHOOSE to not then they are playing a very cruel game. What would you do? You bring in LESS money because your CC is maxed..you still have ALOT of money coming in..so do you quit paying your essentials?? no..you pay them and cut other stuff.. the country has enough to pay Social Secrurity, interest, current Medicare/Medicaid obligations and military as they should..what they shouldn't do is threaten that they WON'T to scare people who really count on them..shame.
But yes..people will have to relearn how to depend more on themselves when they are able..let's save the money we have to help those who are truly needy, not lazy.