Iraq Exit Imminent?

[dcentity2000]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. military, under stress from fighting in Iraq and protecting America from terrorism, is debating whether it can remain ready to fight two big wars at once, according to defense officials.

The discussion is part of a broad Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), in which the Pentagon will propose a new strategy and budget to Congress next February to shape the superpower's forces for years to come.

The civilian and military officials, who asked not to be identified, confirmed a report in Tuesday's New York Times that top Defense Department planners were challenging longstanding strategy that requires the armed forces to be prepared to fight two major wars at once.

Instead, the newspaper reported, they are weighing whether to shape the military to mount only one major conventional war while devoting more resources to defending U.S. territory and to global antiterrorism efforts in the wake of the 2001 attacks on America.

"The QDR debate on two wars is over risks. Risks can translate into lives," one senior military official, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters on Tuesday.

"The questions being debated: Are we really trying to create a one-war strategy and build a force to it? Or are we just changing the strategy because we know what we can realistically afford to spend?" the official said.

For the full story, click here.

Reality is catching up.



Rich::

 

[Professor Mouse]

Interesting. Declare victory and run. It does not help that only one-third of the US thinks that we are winning this war. Gallup: Only 1 in 3 Think the U.S. Is Winning War on Terror

NEW YORK The latest Gallup poll, released today, finds that not only is there increasing public frustration with the war in Iraq, but the public "is not too confident that the United States and its allies are winning the war against terrorism," Gallup reports.

About a third of Americans think the United States is winning the war on terror, while 20% say the terrorists are winning; 41% say neither side is winning. This is the second consecutive survey in which 20% of respondents say the terrorists are winning.

The number saying the U.S. is winning, 36%, is the lowest mark in more than two years.

Not surprisingly, Democrats are less likely to say the U.S. winning, while young people (age 18-29) are most likely, with nearly half of them believing it.

This is despite Bush making one prime time and a couple of othere speeches about the war on terra. The American people are not buying his lies.

 

[Charade]

That's quite a leap there Rich. Did you get hurt?

 

[dcentity2000]

That's quite a leap there Rich. Did you get hurt?

Pure conjecture my good man, pure conjecture



Rich::

 

[JimB.]

Instead, the newspaper reported, they are weighing whether to shape the military to mount only one major conventional war while devoting more resources to defending U.S. territory and to global antiterrorism efforts in the wake of the 2001 attacks on America.

Gee. What a surprise. A candid look at the US Military will reveal that we have not had the assets to fight a 2 front war since the Biiiiiiiiig force drawdowns of the 90's.

We do not even have the assets today to do another "Desert Sheild/Storm" scale of operation. Haven't had it for years. President Reagan envisioned a 600 ship Navy & actually came quite close, if not actually meeting the goal. I think it's below 300 today.

It's got nothing to do with the terrorism fight. It's got nothing to do with missed recruiting goals. It's just the way things have been for over 10 years.

And frankly, I don't give a rat's behind the only 1/3 of America thinks we are winning the war on terror. 99% of Americans don't know crap about military tactics/strategy/or what actually happens in the mid-east.

They get educated by 20 seconds of sound bites every hour on CNN. And I am sure they are just as eager to report the military's success's as they are to splash it's difficulties on the TV. If ya' don't think the media molds, shapes & influences the opinions of most Americans who are too lazy to actually investigate the entire scope of operations & engagements that the military undertakes, then I've got some prime real estate east of St Augustine for sale for you.

Frankly, I think the military is doing a damn fine job of winning the war on terror. If they are reduced to car bombs & kids with dynamite strapped around their waists instead of flying airliners into buildings, IMHO thats a success.

 

[dcentity2000]

Are you real?



Rich::

 

[JimB.]

Am I real?

Absolutely.

16 Years service in the US Navy flying aircraft from the decks of aircraft carriers. Presently A firefighter/paramedic serving in my local community.

And You?

 

[dcentity2000]

A lowly student

Used to study law, just switched to psychology, both in Southampton, UK. I like beetles and bugs and sods and mud and live in a house made out of bus tickets, spanners, monkey nuts and small hairstyles



Rich::

 

[Professor Mouse]

Rich's conclusions are not that big of a stretch. Despite Bush's statements to the contrary, it would be very difficult for the US to send more troops to the Iraq right now. Why we can't send more troops to Iraq

As we're often told, 1 million men and women serve in the U.S. Army. So, why is it such a strain to keep a mere 150,000 in Iraq? What are the other 850,000 doing? Why can't some of them be sent there, too? And if they really can't be spared from their current tasks, what broader inferences can be drawn about America's military policy? Should we bring back the draft to provide more boots on the ground—or, alternatively, scale back our global ambitions so fewer boots will be needed?....

These combat soldiers are organized into brigades (between 3,000 and 4,000 in each). The Army now has 37 active combat brigades—10 in Iraq, one in South Korea (another one, which used to be there, is now among the 10 in Iraq), and one in Afghanistan. That's 12 brigades deployed to hot spots. What about the other 25?

Nine have recently returned from Iraq or Afghanistan (the rule is 12 months out, 12 months back home—though some units have seen their overseas tours stretched);
15 are in training;
one is reconstituting around the new Stryker combat vehicle​

.
It would be possible to put a few more of these brigades on the battlefield. Soldiers could be given less training and be allowed less time at their home bases. But the chiefs know that if they did that, they would soon have a disgruntled, ill-prepared Army—and a smaller Army, too, since such strains would torpedo recruitment and re-enlistment rates, which even now are falling well below target. (Soldiers and civilians might feel differently if the war in Iraq were truly a war of national survival or a titanic struggle of civilizations. During World War II, after all, millions were perfunctorily trained before shipping out to Europe or the Pacific, and they stayed there for years until the fighting was over. But the stakes of the present war are far less momentous.)

If it turns out that the only way to win in Iraq is to put more troops in, then we are out of luck and may have to withdraw.

At some point, Bush is going to declare victory and leave. It is only a matter of time.

 

[dcentity2000]

Personally, I wouldn't be too shocked if an exit plan was drafted, despite conjecture to the contrary. A UN, Nato or EU peacekeeping force may also be on the cards.



Rich::

 

[SherryNC]

At some point, Bush is going to declare victory and leave. It is only a matter of time.

Declare victory for what? For winning the war against terrorism? Cause that will never be over. For the day Iraqi forces are prepared to take over defending their own nation 100%? What date has Bush picked? Like him or hate him, I just don't think that's his style.

 

[njzieglers]

Personally, I wouldn't be too shocked if an exit plan was drafted, despite conjecture to the contrary. A UN, Nato or EU peacekeeping force may also be on the cards.



Rich::

There's a plan that'll work.

 

[dcentity2000]

There's a plan that'll work.

Ta



Rich::

 

[DrCavin]

What JimB said....