Hurricane Gustav - Saturday evening update in Post #41

[JimMIA]

JimMIA,
I don't know anything about hurricanes but my daughter just relocated to Biloxi,Ms. Do you think that she should evacuate? I keep watching the weather channel but I don't really understand everything they keep discussing.

Thanks for your help,
Susan

Deb gave you some great advice. It is still too early to tell where Gustav is going, but evacuation is not the easy road trip most people think it is. The storm is currently predicted to come ashore Monday night/Tuesday morning, but the reality is wherever your daughter is on Sunday night is where she's staying.

Whether she should evacuate depends on many factors, primarily how close to the coast she is, what the elevation is where she lives and what the flood plain looks like there, work obligations, etc. Her local government Emergency Operations Center should be able to provide her with most of that information. Local relocation - to a friend's house, or to a shelter - might be a better option for her.

IF she is going to evacuate, she needs to be ready to execute her evacuation plan as soon as the authorities start recommending evacuations. That is the time to MOVE, not ponder. Ideally, she would have already left in anticipation of an evacuation notice.

If her plan is to fly out, she should already have tickets, and hopefully for Saturday. If she's driving, she should have her gas tank full and severely limit her driving. She can expect ZERO gas availability on Sunday, and possibly none tomorrow. She will not have gas for the first 100 miles or so inland, nor will there be any open hotel rooms. She should take sufficient food and plenty of water with her...but the water shelves at the grocery stores are probably already empty. If she is going to evacuate to a hotel, she should make reservations ASAP.

The current forecast calls for the storm to hit just west of New Orleans, and then to slide WNW into Texas. My personal guess is that it's going to hit somewhat east of that official forecast. I would not be the least bit surprised to see it hit in the Biloxi/Gulfport area.

Gustav is just a tropical storm now, but by Monday it is likely to be a strong Category 3 storm, and it will be a major threat to the Gulf Coast wherever it hits. For comparison, Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit New Orleans -- so people along the Gulf Coast certainly need to be very aware of this storm.

 

[SueBill]

Deb & Bill/JimMIA,
I cannot express my appreciation for all of the excellent advice you have given me. My daughter is in the process of moving all of her furniture upstairs so hopefully it won't be too damaged. She just had a baby so she is busy packing all of the baby's things. Unfortunately the house she rents had approximately 12' of water after Katrina (that is what we we told because she did not live in Biloxi during that time).
I live 6 hours from Biloxi so she does not need a place to stay since she will be driving to my house. She will be leaving on Sunday morning to come to my house so hopefully that won't be too late.

Thanks again,
Susan

 

[Deb & Bill]

I've heard, and not yet substantiated this, that the New Orleans Mayor will be implementing required evacuation of the city beginning 6PM on Saturday. The LSU game has been moved to 10AM on Saturday so those people can get home before they make I-10 all one way north.

If your daughter could leave on Saturday, that might be a little bit better than waiting for Sunday. You say 6 hours from Biloxi. She needs to be prepared for a much longer trip. It will be slow getting out. There are a lot of people who stayed before who are getting out this time.

I know during Katrina, it was taking about 4-6 hours to get from New Orleans to Baton Rouge, which is only about an hour away. Luckily, Biloxi is not as big as NOLA.

Of course, this could all fizzle out or head straight west to Houston/Galveston.

But a visit to Grandma would be nice, no?? Give the baby a kiss for all of us.

 

[JimMIA]

Deb & Bill/JimMIA,
I cannot express my appreciation for all of the excellent advice you have given me. My daughter is in the process of moving all of her furniture upstairs so hopefully it won't be too damaged. She just had a baby so she is busy packing all of the baby's things. Unfortunately the house she rents had approximately 12' of water after Katrina (that is what we we told because she did not live in Biloxi during that time).
I live 6 hours from Biloxi so she does not need a place to stay since she will be driving to my house. She will be leaving on Sunday morning to come to my house so hopefully that won't be too late.

Thanks again,
Susan

There has not been a big change in the official forecast, but all of the models have moved significantly to the west and Biloxi may be fine. However, a Labor Day weekend with Grandma would be great for everyone.

Tell her to drive up tomorrow to beat the rush.

Don't forget that Mississippi and Alabama really got hammered by Katrina. NO got all the publicity, but if anything, MS and AL got hit worse. Those folks are going to be very gun-shy, and they'll be leaving early.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I heard on our conference call this afternoon that it was taking 10 hours to drive from NOLA to Alexandria, LA. This usually takes about three hours max.

 

[JimMIA]

Gustav will not threaten WDW or VB, but it has strengthened to a Category 3 storm and poses a serious threat to LA and TX.

The models and track have shifted slightly west, so it poses less of a threat to MS and AL than it did yesterday - but I'd still be watching it closely if I lived there. This storm is still a LONG way from U.S. landfall, and even a slight change in course could radically change the landfall area.

Gustav is currently projected to strengthen and should reach Category 4 status in the central Gulf of Mexico and then weaken to Category 3 again prior to landfall. For comparison, Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit NO, MS, AL in 2005.

Here's a link to Gustav's 5 day track: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_5day.html#a_topad

 

[HGLightlyj]

They're reporting here in Indianapolis that the NO Saints are evacuating to Indy this week to practice before their next game. As reported they will be practicing in our new Lucas Oil Stadium downtown.

 

[JimMIA]

I should probably have re-phrased something above. Gustav will not threaten WDW and VB, but both will probably feel some effects. We've had a few rain bands through Miami today, and it looks like they extend as far north as Jacksonville on the satellite images. So the weekend might be pretty rainy at WDW...but not much else there.

Also, just for info, at 1:20 PM today, the NHC issued a special update saying that Gustav had already reached Cat 4 strength with sustained winds of 145 MPH and gusts higher.

 

[CarolMN]

And the Republicans are talking about postponing the RNC here in St. Paul, Minnesota if the storm hits LA ot TX.

 

[Deb & Bill]

The worst thing? Hanna could be right behind Gustav. I hate giving up my weekends and holidays to man the Emergency Operations Center.

 

[ssr4me]

im starting to have serious 2nd thoughts about my holiday in 3 weeks time

 

[JimMIA]

The worst thing? Hanna could be right behind Gustav. I hate giving up my weekends and holidays to man the Emergency Operations Center.

I know there are some very long-range models that suggest that, but it's very unlikely. Hopefully Hanna will just wander around for a day or two and turn NE out over the Atlantic.

But I'm really expecting it to turn into Florida later in the week.

 

[JimMIA]

im starting to have serious 2nd thoughts about my holiday in 3 weeks time

Whatever is out there now will be long out of the way in 3 weeks.

 

[JimMIA]

And the Republicans are talking about postponing the RNC here in St. Paul, Minnesota if the storm hits LA ot TX.

I don't think there's any question they will do that. Politicians partying at a convention would not be a good visual, even if it is 1,000+ miles away.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Whatever is out there now will be long out of the way in 3 weeks.

True, but the two disturbances in the Atlantic could be forming into something else and followed by still others. In 2005, they went completely through the alphabet and then used up the Greek alphabet as well.

I'm just glad I'm not on a cruise in Sept.

 

[JimMIA]

True, but the two disturbances in the Atlantic could be forming into something else and followed by still others. In 2005, they went completely through the alphabet and then used up the Greek alphabet as well.

I'm just glad I'm not on a cruise in Sept.

Yeah, there's always something out there. The one isn't going to develop and is too far north already to be an issue. Invest 97 is going to go north. My best guess at this time is that 97 doesn't hit land anywhere.

I haven't looked lately, but there are probably at least two additional systems over central Africa. The march along, just like fronts do in the US. Only difference is, in the tropics they go East to West instead of West to East.

Invest 97 is the only one that could be a threat within three weeks -- unless something pops up in the Gulf or Caribbean.

 

[CarolA]

I don't think there's any question they will do that. Politicians partying at a convention would not be a good visual, even if it is 1,000+ miles away.

Yes, but....

Under thier rules they HAVE to have the convention. The convention center etc probably won't be avaialble for a different date. Not to mention the delegates have REAL jobs LOL!

Now maybe they can do it all 'electornically'. Not sure what the Republican bylaws state?

I am on a cruise the end of Sept. I will worry about hurricanes much closer to then!

My employer is preparing to evacuate from the Gulf Coast area starting about now.

 

[JimMIA]

Yes, but....

Under thier rules they HAVE to have the convention. The convention center etc probably won't be avaialble for a different date. Not to mention the delegates have REAL jobs LOL!

Oh, they'll have it. They may just have to postpone it a week or two.

I'm sure Minneapolis will accommodate them. It's a huge financial boost to a city to host a convention.

 

[Deb & Bill]

The biggest bummer for me. They are forecasting tons of rain for Shreveport after Gustav comes ashore. We just got our new floors down, all the walls back in and painted and the wood trim completed TODAY from our flood in May. If we flood again.....

At least I know who to hire to get the work done.

It's just that my new wood floors are soooo pretty. The Italian tile is pretty, too, but we should be able to clean that if we flood.

 

[wilma-bride]

My thoughts and prayers are with anyone who is being (and will be) affected by the dreadful weather conditions at the moment. Stay safe