Five things to watch in W. Va.
1.) How goes Mason County? In 1988 and 2000 the last elections with no incumbent president on the ballot the county of less than 30,000 residents on the Ohio border was within 5 percentage points of the actual statewide primary results.
That could be good news for Clinton, who had a commanding 65 to 16 percent lead in the county in the most recent poll of West Virginia voters, a Suffolk University survey taken this past weekend (May 10 11).
2.) The Edwards protest vote. John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who ended his Democratic presidential campaign in January, remains on the ballot in West Virginia. And he polled at 4 percent in the Suffolk poll, primarily from men and independents.
If Edwards gets that much of the vote or more, it could add to the nights woes for Obama and presage problems for him in a general election match-up with McCain, particularly in rural states like West Virginia.
3) Turnout in the southern coal fields, the northern panhandle and the Ohio River counties. These areas, home to some of the most unionized, blue collar, and economically distressed populations in the state, are Clinton country.
The Clinton campaign acknowledges it needs a big win with high turnout to make the kind of statement it needs in West Virginia, and these areas will be key to turnout.
4.) Television coverage. The Clinton campaign blames the Obama-as-inevitable storyline partly on the saturation television coverage of last weeks huge Obama victory in North Carolina and unexpectedly narrow Clinton win in Indiana. Much of the analysis framed the night as a determinative moment in the campaign. Campaign aides were particularly peeved at Tim Russerts declaration on MSNBC that we now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be, and no one is going to dispute it even before the network called Indiana for Clinton.
Clinton told several hundred supporters gathered Sunday at a middle school gym in Eleanor, W. Va., that the eyes of the country and the world will be on West Virginia Tuesday, because there is no other state that everybody is going to be waiting to see.
5.) Fundraising bounce: Clintons campaign has been outspent in nearly every state by Obamas fundraising juggernaut and the Clinton campaign acknowledged over the weekend it is $20 million in debt.
Clinton, who loaned her campaign more than $11 million from her and her husbands assets, boasted that her supporters deluged her website with small contributions totaling $10 million in the 24 hours after her April 22 victory in Pennsylvania a record one-day haul.
If a huge West Virginia win uncorks a similar contribution surge, it wouldnt make her campaign financially competitive with Obamas. But it would help it towards solvency.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10300.html