Kick it Up....
Your figures are pretty far off. The latest data I have is from VM, vol 9, from year 2000, but at that time Florida was the 3rd largest group, behind NY, and NJ.
I would presume the ratios today would still be similar to what they were in 2000.
In 2000 Florida had 3777 of 45434 memberships, or 8.3%
New York had 11.2%, New Jersey had 9.6%, and if you add all foreign countries (77 of them), they represent 4059 members, or 8.9%, putting Florida more in 4th place. Followed by PA, IL, MA, MI, OH and so on.
Since your figures were based on 40%, which was a 481% error, I'm afraid your calculations are extremely off.
Also, I'm not sure all FL residents would necessarily buy AP's. Some places in FL are still pretty far from WDW, and if a FL resident has enough points to go 1-week a year, and expects to spend maybe 3-4 days in the park during their trip, then even a FL discounted AP would not make sense for them.
For the 60,000 contracts out there, we might make some deductions. Many contracts are small (150 points), while others are large (500-600). For now let's just think of a 600 point member is the same as two 300 point members. (That helps explain the difference between 60,000 contracts and 48,000 individual members).
Now using some very loose logic, we might estimate an average is 300 points. This will approximately get a 1-B/R at BWV mid-season for 9 nights. (309 points). So if these 60,000 contracts average a 4-person family spending 9 days at WDW a year, that's a almost 2.2 million person-days a year, or almost 6000 people/day who are staying at a DVC resort. (Yes, many are at VB or HH, and the average family could be 3 people, or 5 people, who knows. And maybe mid-season doesn't accurately reflect the total number of days a year the average membership has. That said, let's just go with these figures for illustrative purposes)
Now, if everyone averaged 4-5 park days out of their 9-days there, no one would buy an AP. But the cost of 5-days is pretty close to the cost of an AP, so Disney is getting almost as much as they would have had they all bought AP's. BUT....these same people, spent maybe 5 days out of 9 actually in the parks. Had they gone 8-days (allow one day travel check-in/check-out), that would represent 6000 people a day for 3-days that the theme parks would increase. 6000 people can purchase a lot of food and souveniours.
If the Disney theme parks offered DVC members a discounted AP similar to FL residents, their income from tickets might be almost a wash from what they currently get, (comparing a discounted AP to other 4-5 day passes), but they might get a lot more people-park-days with their resulting in-park purchases.
Yes, as everyone has said, Disney operates on profit. But there are two kinds of profits - Short term, and Long term. You'll find many testimonials on this board of DVC members changing and reducing the number of park-days they spend while at DVC. Those buying regular AP's (myself included), will do so only every other year or so, and going to other Orlando attractions during the off years. This while still staying on Disney property. Those years, Disney looses everything, gaining no park admissions or in-park sales at all.
Long term, Disney will want to maintain high park usage from DVC members, and not let them start to make a habit of just using DVC as their lodging, but rather keeping DVC as a part of the entire WDW experience.
THAT is why it would make good business sense! Not because of goodwill, not because of being expected, not because they're Disney and should do nice things, but because in the long term it will increase profitability, while in the short term probably not hurting total revenues that much.
Most DVC sales contracts are still young, probably within the last 3-4 years. So far, most members still want to do the parks as much as possible. As time goes by, they'll taper back, start doing more things outside of WDW. This is where the danger lies to the Park management, in losing these highly Disney motivated members. They must recognize that eventually, and offer incentives to keep them in the parks.
DISCLAIMER: Yes, except for the year 2000 figures, everything else is pure speculation. Disney is the only one who can ascertain exact figures. But if I were theme park management, the thought of losing 6000 people a day who are staying on site, and not going into the theme parks, would definitely scare me. And that's exactly what will happen as members change from 4-5 park days per year, down to 3-4 days/year, then 2-3 days/year.
Bottom Line, Disney can sell a 5-day hopper pass for $230, or try to entice a DVC member to buy an AP for $269 (FL resident renewal rate) and try to get them to spend 8-days or so in the park instead of 5. (The first year AP at $306 gives Disney even more profit), and assuming most would renew, they'd still make $39 more a year than selling the hopper. This then would offset some of the loss from those DVC members currently buying the non-Florida AP's who would benefit from a FL AP rate.
Similar comparisons can be made between Hopper-plus tickets and PAP's.
All in MHO...
