Grand Floridian Point Inflation

[DVC Mike]

I think Mike used exactly the right numbers -- the most realistic ones. [ETA -- in fact, I think he could comfortably gone somewhat lower on the resale prices, if indeed that's what he used.]

I was trying to be very conservative with the resales costs. I know that it is possible to pay less than the resales examples I used.

 

[DizBub]

I'm just pointing out the much higher cost of owning VGF compared to other resorts, and that the points required to stay at the newer resorts continues to climb.

People were predicting a point cost higher than $145, but the higher number of points per stay and the higher maintenance fees have made VGF fairly pricey. But, it IS the Grand Floridian.

Does anyone else feel that this is the beginning of the tier II DVC we have all been speculating about? They just aren't calling it that....yet.

No real incentives offered on VGF, high price, even higher point requirements to stay there, the first really luxurious decor. Anyone who wants to stay there for a week will be forced to buy a high # of points. They know that this resort will sell itself.

When they build the Poly it will only go higher, effectively shutting out relatively small point owners at the older resorts.

I see the beginning of a trend.

 

[z28wiz]

Does anyone else feel that this is the beginning of the tier II DVC we have all been speculating about? They just aren't calling it that....yet.

No real incentives offered on VGF, high price, even higher point requirements to stay there, the first really luxurious decor. Anyone who wants to stay there for a week will be forced to buy a high # of points. They know that this resort will sell itself.

When they build the Poly it will only go higher, effectively shutting out relatively small point owners at the older resorts.

I see the beginning of a trend.

Good point! We did buy 85 points at GFV so we can go every third year in a one bedroom. Wr will use our other points for 1-2 week stays in other resorts 1-2 bedroom villas

Sent from my iPhone using DISBoards

 

[DVC Mike]

Other factors when comparing costs would be comparing years left on a contract.

Yes, I just picked the first three factors from my Choosing Your Home Resort thread.

 

[DougEMG]

Compared to say starting a DVC II, i think having higher point costs per night for the top teir resorts makes total sense, all it is doing is aligning the DVC resorts similarly to the Disney hotels.

Personally I think a standard room at BWV is the best deal for location, but even so I'm still going to try a stay at least once in VGF.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Compared to say starting a DVC II, i think having higher point costs per night for the top teir resorts makes total sense, all it is doing is aligning the DVC resorts similarly to the Disney hotels.

Personally I think a standard room at BWV is the best deal for location, but even so I'm still going to try a stay at least once in VGF.

I agree. We own at BWV and do believe that it really has the best overall package. (Dean has said as much as well.)

Plus, I will turn 73 in 2042 and MAY turn 95 in 2064. Either way, I don't see myself going to Disney in 2064.

I am doing all that I can to NOT pick up the phone. We have a few big ticket items to pay for right now like a new car payment and some home maintenance. Don't ya hate it when your real life gets in the way of your Disney life?

 

[CarolMN]

Would your analysis be any different if you were a family of 5 - 2 adults and 3 children?

The studios officially sleep 5 and the VGF studios are less expensive than a 1 bedroom anywhere else. I think that is attractive to quite a few. Since there are not many studios, it's a good bet that you'd need to own to ensure the dates you prefer.

I agree that VGF is expensive relative to the other DVC resorts. But I do not think it is going to affect sales all that much. YMMV.

 

[ercrbc]

Would your analysis be any different if you were a family of 5 - 2 adults and 3 children?

The studios officially sleep 5 and the VGF studios are less expensive than a 1 bedroom anywhere else. I think that is attractive to quite a few. Since there are not many studios, it's a good bet that you'd need to own to ensure the dates you prefer.

I agree that VGF is expensive relative to the other DVC resorts. But I do not think it is going to affect sales all that much. YMMV.

We are a young family with 3 small children. The studios sleeping 5 does little to effect my impression of the GFV as far as owning. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to own there, but I am a point cruncher and I am having a tough tough time justifying this one. We bought into DVC specifically so we wouldn't have to stay in one room with our kids. I don't care how fancy the hotel, that just isn't vacation to us I can't see us going back on that by spending MORE $ to stay in a smaller space. Even with my heartstrings calling....

My kids will only be small a few more years. My son won't fit in that pull down bed for too long so a 1BR won't work either, long term we would end up in a 2BR. The buy in and MF costs are just too high to justify for a trip every 3 years. Even if I really really want to stay there I showed my DD(7) pictures to entice her, she crinkled her nose and said "I thought it was the place with the Nemo pool!, Can't we stay there?" Um, right....My case for buying GFV is not looking so good, lol!

Now if DH wants to surprise me with some play pts at the GFV to go when I want with who I want, well that's a different story.

 

[CarolMN]

We are a young family with 3 small children. The studios sleeping 5 does little to effect my impression of the GFV as far as owning. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to own there, but I am a point cruncher and I am having a tough tough time justifying this one. We bought into DVC specifically so we wouldn't have to stay in one room with our kids. I don't care how fancy the hotel, that just isn't vacation to us I can't see us going back on that by spending MORE $ to stay in a smaller space. Even with my heartstrings calling....[snip]..........

I agree with you - I book 1 bedrooms for the two of us on a regular basis.

However, I suspect we are not the majority. I can't tell you how many posts I've read over the past several years asking about getting a studio for 5 (and then the disappointment when told it is not an option if one of the occupants in not under 3).

 

[Nabas]

Would your analysis be any different if you were a family of 5 - 2 adults and 3 children?

The studios officially sleep 5 and the VGF studios are less expensive than a 1 bedroom anywhere else. I think that is attractive to quite a few. Since there are not many studios, it's a good bet that you'd need to own to ensure the dates you prefer.

I agree that VGF is expensive relative to the other DVC resorts. But I do not think it is going to affect sales all that much. YMMV.

I've never tried it myself but have read that you can have 5 in a Studio at, for example, BWV. You make your reservation online and then call to add the fifth person.

Anyway you look at it, squeezing 5 into a single room is a tight fit, even if the children are young.

I agree with you that I think you'll need to own at VGF in order to book more than a night or two, and that the VGF points chart will not appreciably affect sales.

 

[vicki_c]

I've never tried it myself but have read that you can have 5 in a Studio at, for example, BWV. You make your reservation online and then call to add the fifth person.

Anyway you look at it, squeezing 5 into a single room is a tight fit, even if the children are young.

I agree with you that I think you'll need to own at VGF in order to book more than a night or two, and that the VGF points chart will not appreciably affect sales.

You cannot have 5 in a studio except at VGF. Only 1 BRs allow 5.

 

[parlay]

Oh, I agree. Emotion has played a big role in the decision made by many to purchase DVC - including mine. Do I own 1,151 DVC points because it is logical from a financial point of view, or because I have an emotional attachment to Disney? I know it's the latter. If I was down at WDW right now and took the tour of the model rooms, I have no doubt I would be purchasing an add-on at VGF.

I'm just pointing out the much higher cost of owning VGF compared to other resorts, and that the points required to stay at the newer resorts continues to climb.

People were predicting a point cost higher than $145, but the higher number of points per stay and the higher maintenance fees have made VGF fairly pricey. But, it IS the Grand Floridian.

I love it! I'm so glad I'm not the only one trying to talk myself out of VGF points. Thanks Mike for the logical analysis - it might hold me off for a little while.

 

[VrBchJ]

I love it! I'm so glad I'm not the only one trying to talk myself out of VGF points. Thanks Mike for the logical analysis - it might hold me off for a little while.

I'm with you. I always thought when VGF came on line I would add on to my BWV and BLT points. It's killing me not to call but I just can't justfy it based on all the things DVC MIke talked about. Last night I was ready to give in but this morning the sun came out and I came to my senses!

 

[Lambekel]

This is exactly the way I look at it, it makes the most sense and is the most simple way of seeing how much you are paying. It is a more realistic comparison - especially when you add the maintenance fee. You can easily see what your savings are every year by multiplying your point cost by the amount of points spent. Not sure why more people don't do it this way...

Other factors when comparing costs would be comparing years left on a contract.
For example: Lets say that BWV is going for $80 on the resale market divide that figure by 29(years left) and you get 2.75 a point.
If buying GF for 145 divide that by 50 years you get $2.90 a point.
If you are buying BWV as a direct purchase for 145 divide that by 29 and you get $5.00 a point.
So in the above figures GFV doesn't look so bad, in fact against BWV direct it looks like a bargain. As for the higher MF's I look at the fees as paying for more expensive furnishing and higher costs due to "Real Estate location".

Now if our daughter wasn't getting married this year and our son maybe next year. We would have the money to buy GF but I think our daughter would ...... me if we bought GF instead. So in keeping the peace, I just want to tell all those who are buying GF good luck to you.

 

[Nabas]

Other factors when comparing costs would be comparing years left on a contract.
For example: Lets say that BWV is going for $80 on the resale market divide that figure by 29(years left) and you get 2.75 a point.
If buying GF for 145 divide that by 50 years you get $2.90 a point.
If you are buying BWV as a direct purchase for 145 divide that by 29 and you get $5.00 a point.

The concern I have with this viewpoint is you are spending (a lot) of money today for something you are going to benefit from 30, 40, even 50 years from now. That's longer than most home mortgages.

Are you going to be alive 50 years from now to enjoy a purchase you made 50 years before? Do you really expect to be vacationing at WDW in 50 years?

 

[Deb & Bill]

I think DVC is just biding their time until 2042 when they shut down the older resorts, recondition them and raise the point requirements on them. Too bad they offered the 15 year extension at OKW or they would be doing OKW, too. Now they have to wait until 2057 (and I'll be long gone by that time - maybe frozen with Walt).

 

[Lambekel]

I don't understand why you don't think you are benefiting from this now. If you have paid 2.75 per point. Add 5.66 maintenance fee (AKL). That is 8.41 per point. With points through Bills going for $14 per point you already have a savings f 5.59 per point. Am I missing something?

The concern I have with this viewpoint is you are spending (a lot) of money today for something you are going to benefit from 30, 40, even 50 years from now. That's longer than most home mortgages.

Are you going to be alive 50 years from now to enjoy a purchase you made 50 years before? Do you really expect to be vacationing at WDW in 50 years?

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

I don't understand why you don't think you are benefiting from this now. If you have paid 2.75 per point. Add 5.66 maintenance fee (AKL). That is 8.41 per point. With points through Bills going for $14 per point you already have a savings of 5.59 per point. Am I missing something?

This is where the time value of money comes in. Would you rather have $1000 today or $1000 - 50 years from now?

Two good formulas to play with are (1+interest rate) to the nth power, and 1 divided by (1+interest rate) to the nth power.

 

[disneynutz]

Grand Floridian is WDW's Flag Ship resort and the point costs are high for that reason. That being understood, the price of $145 is low IMO, they probably could have started higher and I expect prices to increase based on demand.

IMO dues are higher because the new management at DVD/DVC is setting the dues rate where it belongs and some how, prior executives kept the dues low.

Unless you are buying a fixed week, buying now will cost you. Waiting for resales to come on the market might be a better choice.

Bill

 

[Dean]

I just can't get over the point inflation of VGF.

Using an example of staying in a 1-BR during the first week of March 2014:

BWV Standard View is 220 points @ 5.84 = $1,285
BLT Standard View is 268 points @ 4.50 = $1,206
VGF Standard View is 340 points @ 5.41 = $1,839

BWV Preferred View is 271 points @ 5.84 = $1,583
BLT Lake View is 301 points @ 4.50 = $1,355
VGF Lake View is 407 points @ 5.41 = $2,202

The above just takes maintenance fees into consideration, and doesn't consider the $145 per point of VGF against BWV and BLT on the resale market.

Let's say you wanted to purchase enough points today to do this every year. It would cost you:

BWV Standard View is 220 points @ 85 = $18,700
BLT Standard View is 268 points @ 97 = $25,996
VGF Standard View is 340 points @ 145 = $49,300

BWV Preferred View is 271 points @ 85 = $23,035
BLT Lake View is 301 points @ 97 = $29,197
VGF Lake View is 407 points @ 145 = $59,015

You'd be paying twice as much up front for VGF.

IMO this is the first time you could truly make a case for raising the points just to raise the price. There were other examples it could have been discussed including BWV following OKW, VWL and BCV (should have been a little less) and BLT (different animal). I guess with this and the fixed weeks (it's funny seeing DVC listed using a traditional timeshare calendar), they've officially crossed over.