Future Trends for VGC resale?

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

For long stays in high point months. Take the deal. Vgc points in Jan Feb and may June and Sept Oct are hard to beat vs Grand Californian any deal

This is very helpful in thinking about contracts and UY. I was thinking we might want to visit in summer so my Sep/Oct UY were not so great, but it sounds like the point chart tends to be more punitive in July/Aug anyway? I think June is still a bit tight with Oct UY... I was thinking Mar might be good, but if two of the most advantages months are Jan/Feb, I don't think I want a Mar UY either.

 

[nalababybear]

This is very helpful in thinking about contracts and UY. I was thinking we might want to visit in summer so my Sep/Oct UY were not so great, but it sounds like the point chart tends to be more punitive in July/Aug anyway? I think June is still a bit tight with Oct UY... I was thinking Mar might be good, but if two of the most advantages months are Jan/Feb, I don't think I want a Mar UY either.

We have three UY -- Dec, Mar and Aug. They all have their pros/cons so really depends on what your point concentration and travel habits are.

Summer we tend to avoid; even just park days due to both the heat AND the crowds. We may to three day pass this year; depends. -- pointswise we avoid, especially August is a point killer for VGC.

Aug UY because that's what we grabbed for AUL Sub - so built off that.

 

[DopeyInTX]

Well my smallish contract for VGC fell apart. Im almost scared to mention the new contract since we are only at the initial phase. It turned out not to be so bad, although we ended up spending a lot more because we got 60 more points than was on the last contract. We also like this UY better and it had '24 point available. My husband actually is happier having more points so thats an upside too. While I didnt go into this expecting it to increase in value I would love if it held its pp value, but if its doesn't I am totally okay with that.

Side note: I expect the Poly offerings to be wildly amazing since now buying them isn't on the table for us after dropping $$$ on VGC and $ on Copper Creek.

I wonder if I'm dealing with the same seller you previously dealt with ...
I will keep my fingers crossed for you!

 

[VGCgroupie]

I wonder if I'm dealing with the same seller you previously dealt with ...
I will keep my fingers crossed for you!

Thanks! Mine was actually a broker issue not on the seller. Hopefully we both can get our contracts moving along because my new one is not moving as fast as my copper creek one did.

 

[tx911]

Thanks! Mine was actually a broker issue not on the seller. Hopefully we both can get our contracts moving along because my new one is not moving as fast as my copper creek one did.

That’s a bummer! At what point did things break down?

 

[VGCgroupie]

That’s a bummer! At what point did things break down?

When I got the contract and the terms weren't what we agreed to verbally. On this new one I made sure to get terms via email before any time was wasted going to official contract. Now just waiting for where to send deposit but contract went fine .. TRCS seems to be super slow right off the bat.

 

[JoshF]

Well my smallish contract for VGC fell apart. Im almost scared to mention the new contract since we are only at the initial phase. It turned out not to be so bad, although we ended up spending a lot more because we got 60 more points than was on the last contract. We also like this UY better and it had '24 point available. My husband actually is happier having more points so thats an upside too. While I didnt go into this expecting it to increase in value I would love if it held its pp value, but if its doesn't I am totally okay with that.

Side note: I expect the Poly offerings to be wildly amazing since now buying them isn't on the table for us after dropping $$$ on VGC and $ on Copper Creek.

How did it fall apart?

 

[VGCgroupie]

How did it fall apart?

What was is in the contract wasn’t what we agreed to. After some back and forth we decided to let it go and offer on something else.

 

[DVCNOOOB]

SoCal resident here, I think VGC will come down to VDH prices once there's a significant resale market. Quick math shows that VDH at $180/point would be equivalent to about $240/point VGC. Looks like VDH isn't moving much at $180 so the resale market will likely move lower as it matures. Comparing the cheapest VDH contract at $152 and VGC at $240 (looks like it sold recently), gives you a price per point of $14.83 for VDH and $15.41 for VGC. Seems similar; however, VDH has cheaper studios that cost about $148 for the duo and $193 for the deluxe. VGC would cost about $261.97. These would be for the cheapest time of year. During the holidays VDH still comes in at $460 for the deluxe vs $570 at the Grand. I believe the bedrooms were cheaper too, but didn't bother comparing as I'm not too interested in them at the moment. Maybe when my kids are much older. Point being that VDH does offer a pretty good value even though many think its worthless on resale.

Looking at other places on this forum, and I think $150 per point will likely be a realistic point for VDH resale contracts. That likely puts the floor for VGC at about $220.

The curveball will be Disneyland forwards effect on VDH. I think it's possible that it will become even more desirable over the grand once it abuts Disneyland. If this does happen, the next 5 years will likely be the cheapest you will ever see VGC. VDH will probably not drag down the price as much.

I don't think a third DVC property will happen until a third gate happens. I also think Disney will kill for a third gate as that would make Disneyland finally worthy of a full week stay for most people. Turning toy story lot into Disney springs without a 3rd gate seems pointless. I feel like the reason it works so well in Florida is due to visitors being there for at least a week, but Disney does like doing cheap and stupid decisions like they aren't one of the most powerful entities on the planet. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

In short, get VGC before they expand the parks because after that I think they only become more desirable and more expensive.

 

[nalababybear]

SoCal resident here, I think VGC will come down to VDH prices once there's a significant resale market. Quick math shows that VDH at $180/point would be equivalent to about $240/point VGC. Looks like VDH isn't moving much at $180 so the resale market will likely move lower as it matures. Comparing the cheapest VDH contract at $152 and VGC at $240 (looks like it sold recently), gives you a price per point of $14.83 for VDH and $15.41 for VGC. Seems similar; however, VDH has cheaper studios that cost about $148 for the duo and $193 for the deluxe. VGC would cost about $261.97. These would be for the cheapest time of year. During the holidays VDH still comes in at $460 for the deluxe vs $570 at the Grand. I believe the bedrooms were cheaper too, but didn't bother comparing as I'm not too interested in them at the moment. Maybe when my kids are much older. Point being that VDH does offer a pretty good value even though many think its worthless on resale.

Looking at other places on this forum, and I think $150 per point will likely be a realistic point for VDH resale contracts. That likely puts the floor for VGC at about $220.

The curveball will be Disneyland forwards effect on VDH. I think it's possible that it will become even more desirable over the grand once it abuts Disneyland. If this does happen, the next 5 years will likely be the cheapest you will ever see VGC. VDH will probably not drag down the price as much.

I don't think a third DVC property will happen until a third gate happens. I also think Disney will kill for a third gate as that would make Disneyland finally worthy of a full week stay for most people. Turning toy story lot into Disney springs without a 3rd gate seems pointless. I feel like the reason it works so well in Florida is due to visitors being there for at least a week, but Disney does like doing cheap and stupid decisions like they aren't one of the most powerful entities on the planet. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

In short, get VGC before they expand the parks because after that I think they only become more desirable and more expensive.

One point missing -- VDH resale - stuck at DLR. VGC resale isn't.

Yes, it'll be crazy to use VGC points elsewhere, but people still do and they will tie a value to that point at time of resale purchase. VGC will command a premium still with that point alone.

 

[AstroBlasters]

SoCal resident here, I think VGC will come down to VDH prices once there's a significant resale market. Quick math shows that VDH at $180/point would be equivalent to about $240/point VGC. Looks like VDH isn't moving much at $180 so the resale market will likely move lower as it matures. Comparing the cheapest VDH contract at $152 and VGC at $240 (looks like it sold recently), gives you a price per point of $14.83 for VDH and $15.41 for VGC. Seems similar; however, VDH has cheaper studios that cost about $148 for the duo and $193 for the deluxe. VGC would cost about $261.97. These would be for the cheapest time of year. During the holidays VDH still comes in at $460 for the deluxe vs $570 at the Grand. I believe the bedrooms were cheaper too, but didn't bother comparing as I'm not too interested in them at the moment. Maybe when my kids are much older. Point being that VDH does offer a pretty good value even though many think its worthless on resale.

Looking at other places on this forum, and I think $150 per point will likely be a realistic point for VDH resale contracts. That likely puts the floor for VGC at about $220.

The curveball will be Disneyland forwards effect on VDH. I think it's possible that it will become even more desirable over the grand once it abuts Disneyland. If this does happen, the next 5 years will likely be the cheapest you will ever see VGC. VDH will probably not drag down the price as much.

I don't think a third DVC property will happen until a third gate happens. I also think Disney will kill for a third gate as that would make Disneyland finally worthy of a full week stay for most people. Turning toy story lot into Disney springs without a 3rd gate seems pointless. I feel like the reason it works so well in Florida is due to visitors being there for at least a week, but Disney does like doing cheap and stupid decisions like they aren't one of the most powerful entities on the planet. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

In short, get VGC before they expand the parks because after that I think they only become more desirable and more expensive.

Things to add to you analysis:

1) VGC has the better location.
2) VGC will always have a smaller supply of contracts on the market once VDH is more established.
3) The Grand Californian hotel is a more premium offering The Disneyland Hotel in the cash side and is priced as such.
4) VDHs style is more polarizing.
5) VDH is already having build quality issues with things like water temperature /pressure.

 

[MagicDVC]

2) VGC will always have a smaller supply of contracts on the market once VDH is more established.

Agreed! As more contracts are bought resale, those people aren't going to be reselling. The number of contracts for sale start dwindling. I think most contracts for sale are from people who bought direct but now don't use the contract whether they outgrew it or only go to WDW and could use the premium $$$ compared to when they bought it.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Agreed! As more contracts are bought resale, those people aren't going to be reselling. The number of contracts for sale start dwindling. I think most contracts for sale are from people who bought direct but now don't use the contract whether they outgrew it or only go to WDW and could use the premium $$$ compared to when they bought it.

I don’t know if I agree with the premise that people who bought resale are less likely to be future sellers, but VDH does have 2x the number of total points and that will lead to more contracts on the market.

I actually think someone who bought resale would be quicker to pull the trigger because they are less likely to sell at a loss and have less valuable points (restricted resale vs unrestricted direct).

One would think that current VGC owners would have flooded the market when prices were at their $300+ post VDH mini-bubble pricing…. but you really didn’t see that many come up for sale relative to other DVC resorts….

 

[AstroBlasters]

SoCal resident here, I think VGC will come down to VDH prices once there's a significant resale market. Quick math shows that VDH at $180/point would be equivalent to about $240/point VGC. Looks like VDH isn't moving much at $180 so the resale market will likely move lower as it matures. Comparing the cheapest VDH contract at $152 and VGC at $240 (looks like it sold recently), gives you a price per point of $14.83 for VDH and $15.41 for VGC. Seems similar; however, VDH has cheaper studios that cost about $148 for the duo and $193 for the deluxe. VGC would cost about $261.97. These would be for the cheapest time of year. During the holidays VDH still comes in at $460 for the deluxe vs $570 at the Grand. I believe the bedrooms were cheaper too, but didn't bother comparing as I'm not too interested in them at the moment. Maybe when my kids are much older. Point being that VDH does offer a pretty good value even though many think its worthless on resale.

Looking at other places on this forum, and I think $150 per point will likely be a realistic point for VDH resale contracts. That likely puts the floor for VGC at about $220.

The curveball will be Disneyland forwards effect on VDH. I think it's possible that it will become even more desirable over the grand once it abuts Disneyland. If this does happen, the next 5 years will likely be the cheapest you will ever see VGC. VDH will probably not drag down the price as much.

I don't think a third DVC property will happen until a third gate happens. I also think Disney will kill for a third gate as that would make Disneyland finally worthy of a full week stay for most people. Turning toy story lot into Disney springs without a 3rd gate seems pointless. I feel like the reason it works so well in Florida is due to visitors being there for at least a week, but Disney does like doing cheap and stupid decisions like they aren't one of the most powerful entities on the planet. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

In short, get VGC before they expand the parks because after that I think they only become more desirable and more expensive.

FWIW, as someone who bought contracts at $225 and $230…. I think the reasonable floor of $220 ( outside of financial distress, extremely large contract size, stripped years) is very “reasonable”.

I think that VDH could fall a lot further and be on par with RIV (or lower because of dues and TOT).

With that said, I agree that VDH resale absolutely has value and makes a ton of sense for people who want a smaller capital outlay, really dig the mid-century modern/ light and bright whimsical animation theming, want primarily studios/duos, or don’t like the Arts & Crafts VGC theming.

 

[CastAStone]

SoCal resident here, I think VGC will come down to VDH prices once there's a significant resale market. Quick math shows that VDH at $180/point would be equivalent to about $240/point VGC. Looks like VDH isn't moving much at $180 so the resale market will likely move lower as it matures. Comparing the cheapest VDH contract at $152 and VGC at $240 (looks like it sold recently), gives you a price per point of $14.83 for VDH and $15.41 for VGC. Seems similar; however, VDH has cheaper studios that cost about $148 for the duo and $193 for the deluxe. VGC would cost about $261.97. These would be for the cheapest time of year. During the holidays VDH still comes in at $460 for the deluxe vs $570 at the Grand. I believe the bedrooms were cheaper too, but didn't bother comparing as I'm not too interested in them at the moment. Maybe when my kids are much older. Point being that VDH does offer a pretty good value even though many think its worthless on resale.

Looking at other places on this forum, and I think $150 per point will likely be a realistic point for VDH resale contracts. That likely puts the floor for VGC at about $220.

The curveball will be Disneyland forwards effect on VDH. I think it's possible that it will become even more desirable over the grand once it abuts Disneyland. If this does happen, the next 5 years will likely be the cheapest you will ever see VGC. VDH will probably not drag down the price as much.

I don't think a third DVC property will happen until a third gate happens. I also think Disney will kill for a third gate as that would make Disneyland finally worthy of a full week stay for most people. Turning toy story lot into Disney springs without a 3rd gate seems pointless. I feel like the reason it works so well in Florida is due to visitors being there for at least a week, but Disney does like doing cheap and stupid decisions like they aren't one of the most powerful entities on the planet. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

In short, get VGC before they expand the parks because after that I think they only become more desirable and more expensive.

My take is similar to the others that have replied. I think that VDH will drag down VGC but that the gap will be MUCH larger than you are anticipating. I see VDH resale long term in the AKV-BLT range. The resale restrictions make it a single resort contract, and the location is significantly worse in that it makes hotels on Harbor and Katella reasonable comparison points (except for @AstroBlasters who would NEVER ), even if there are elements of VDH that are substantially better.

I think VGC dipping into the very high 100s while we have this glut of contracts is possible as the worst case scenario, but I think if it does, the glut of contracts will clear up very quickly. I think an $80-$100 per point gap between the resorts is very possible, but I also think the existence of VDH contracts precludes VGC from ever being 60% more than any other DVC resort again.

 

[AstroBlasters]

My take is similar to the others that have replied. I think that VDH will drag down VGC but that the gap will be MUCH larger than you are anticipating. I see VDH resale long term in the AKV-BLT range. The resale restrictions make it a single resort contract, and the location is significantly worse in that it makes hotels on Harbor and Katella reasonable comparison points (except for @AstroBlasters who would NEVER ), even if there are elements of VDH that are substantially better.

I think VGC dipping into the very high 100s while we have this glut of contracts is possible as the worst case scenario, but I think if it does, the glut of contracts will clear up very quickly. I think an $80-$100 per point gap between the resorts is very possible, but I also think the existence of VDH contracts precludes VGC from ever being 60% more than any other DVC resort again.

I am used to staying in Courtyard Marriott’s for work trips and am completely fine with a clean room and a comfortable bed…. so it’s more the family unit who is used to staying at the nicer establishments.

It’s also just a risk mitigation thing in Anaheim.

My wife even has us upgrading our flights to Premium Economy now! Although…. to be fair some of that is because of the amount of Advil she sees me taking before flights for back issues….

 

[VGCgroupie]

SoCal resident here, I think VGC will come down to VDH prices once there's a significant resale market. Quick math shows that VDH at $180/point would be equivalent to about $240/point VGC. Looks like VDH isn't moving much at $180 so the resale market will likely move lower as it matures. Comparing the cheapest VDH contract at $152 and VGC at $240 (looks like it sold recently), gives you a price per point of $14.83 for VDH and $15.41 for VGC. Seems similar; however, VDH has cheaper studios that cost about $148 for the duo and $193 for the deluxe. VGC would cost about $261.97. These would be for the cheapest time of year. During the holidays VDH still comes in at $460 for the deluxe vs $570 at the Grand. I believe the bedrooms were cheaper too, but didn't bother comparing as I'm not too interested in them at the moment. Maybe when my kids are much older. Point being that VDH does offer a pretty good value even though many think its worthless on resale.

Looking at other places on this forum, and I think $150 per point will likely be a realistic point for VDH resale contracts. That likely puts the floor for VGC at about $220.

The curveball will be Disneyland forwards effect on VDH. I think it's possible that it will become even more desirable over the grand once it abuts Disneyland. If this does happen, the next 5 years will likely be the cheapest you will ever see VGC. VDH will probably not drag down the price as much.

I don't think a third DVC property will happen until a third gate happens. I also think Disney will kill for a third gate as that would make Disneyland finally worthy of a full week stay for most people. Turning toy story lot into Disney springs without a 3rd gate seems pointless. I feel like the reason it works so well in Florida is due to visitors being there for at least a week, but Disney does like doing cheap and stupid decisions like they aren't one of the most powerful entities on the planet. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

In short, get VGC before they expand the parks because after that I think they only become more desirable and more expensive.

Today is not a math day for me.. did you include the TOT tax in the figures above? I assume so but wanted to clarify.

Id take $220 as a floor for VGC all day and call it a huge win on value vs what I paid and will get out of it.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Today is not a math day for me.. did you include the TOT tax in the figures above? I assume so but wanted to clarify.

Id take $220 as a floor for VGC all day and call it a huge win on value vs what I paid and will get out of it.

I was scrolling and scrolling and scrolling to see if this point was raised… and ah ha! Finally someone raised it.

But those prices are likely cash quotes and probably include all taxes. Not certain tho.

Regardless… VGC may act like a subsidized Aulani contract when compared to VDH. Those transient taxes are lethal at VDH and it’s my opinion they will bring down resale over time.

 

[DVCNOOOB]

One point missing -- VDH resale - stuck at DLR. VGC resale isn't.

Yes, it'll be crazy to use VGC points elsewhere, but people still do and they will tie a value to that point at time of resale purchase. VGC will command a premium still with that point alone.

Ya it sucks, but I think monetary wise it won't be as bad as most people think. It shouldn't be a huge loss because from what I understand trying to book VGC is pretty much impossible at 7 months. Not like owning VDH direct really gives you much opportunity to book VGC. The points for both VDH and VGC are way more expensive than Florida resort points and even from a quick look more than Aulani. I guess it still works out cheaper than paying cash, but with the limited banking and borrowing it seems like a huge hassle as a west coaster.

Like I would actually care about the transferable points if there was an option to bank points for like 5-7 years or so. That would allow me to save up and take a nice long trip to the Animal Kingdom Villas every 3-4 years. When I found out about how it actually works, I pretty much said well guess I'm not using them in Florida. I'm not going to soak up 3 years worth of my contract to go do a Florida trip.

Overall not a huge loss for me. My wife refuses to stay outside the Disney bubble, so it'll pretty much come down to resale VDH or VGC. The direct VDH just doesn't have enough upside.

 

[DVCNOOOB]

Things to add to you analysis:

1) VGC has the better location.
2) VGC will always have a smaller supply of contracts on the market once VDH is more established.
3) The Grand Californian hotel is a more premium offering The Disneyland Hotel in the cash side and is priced as such.
4) VDHs stylei is more polarizing.
5) VDH is already having build quality issues with things like water temperature /pressure.

1) Absolutely, but it may only hold that advantage for another 5-6 years or so. Pretty sure DCA took under 3 years to build once they broke ground. I would assume they can build the Disneyland forward expansion in similar time, and the Disneyland side expansion will be the first move along with the parking structure on the east side. Assuming they do DCA and Disneyland expansion separately. Also, whats another like 5 minutes of walking on top of 10-12 hours of walking. My kid loves taking the monorail into the park too.

2) True, but VDH supply is the the only competing product out there. VGC pretty much stood on its own and seems like it just ignored prices from the Florida resort market.

3) I agree, yet the Disneyland Hotel isn't much cheaper on the hotel side. You might get about a 100 dollars cheaper per night. I've also seen the Grand Californian come in cheaper. Even the Pixar hotel comes in around the same price. People are willing to shell out top dollar just to get into the Disney bubble.

4) Ya, but it will grow on people. VDH room was nicer than both the hotel sides of the Grand or Disneyland hotel to me. Grand's lobby is impressive and can't be beat, but the tropical grounds of the Disneyland hotel are nice, pool edges out the Grand, and I like Trader Sam's more than the Grand options. To be honest, I pretty much wrote off the Disneyland hotel all together and thought it wasn't worth booking before ever staying there. It always seemed like an old mid century run down hotel to me. Never really paid much attention to it. Where as whenever you walk through the Grand lobby you just go WOW this looks amazing. I still prefer the Grand Californian slightly, I do like the lodge feel even if its kinda generic, but Disneyland hotel/ Villas won me over enough to accept it as an alternative.

5) Nothing seemed that bad from what I saw when I was there. Maybe some cheap materials used for certain things, but nothing egregious I would say.