Future Trends for VGC resale?

[DVCNOOOB]

My take is similar to the others that have replied. I think that VDH will drag down VGC but that the gap will be MUCH larger than you are anticipating. I see VDH resale long term in the AKV-BLT range. The resale restrictions make it a single resort contract, and the location is significantly worse in that it makes hotels on Harbor and Katella reasonable comparison points (except for @AstroBlasters who would NEVER ), even if there are elements of VDH that are substantially better.

I think VGC dipping into the very high 100s while we have this glut of contracts is possible as the worst case scenario, but I think if it does, the glut of contracts will clear up very quickly. I think an $80-$100 per point gap between the resorts is very possible, but I also think the existence of VDH contracts precludes VGC from ever being 60% more than any other DVC resort again.

Guess I'm not that bearish on the DVC market. I think the west coast market will always carry a premium over the east coast due to only having 2 resorts and likely only ever having 3 in the near future. Disneyland has way more outside pressure from all sides with many of them technically being closer than the Disneyland Hotel. Yet Disney still fills them at premium prices nearly as high as the luxury resorts in Florida. Apparently they have no issue filling the Pixar hotel at like 700-800 a night. This essentially translates over to the DVC side and thats why VGC is such an anomaly. I think VDH will come along with it too.

Doesn't matter that the Westin is literally half the price. Wife has to be in the bubble so we stay in the bubble.

 

[Chili327]

the tropical grounds of the DisneyIand hotel are nice, pool edges out the Grand, and I like Trader Sam's

Just wanted to say, yes I agree, I LOVE the Tropical vibe over there. It still has that 50's Tiki feel even though most of that is gone now.

 

[nalababybear]

My take is similar to the others that have replied. I think that VDH will drag down VGC but that the gap will be MUCH larger than you are anticipating. I see VDH resale long term in the AKV-BLT range. The resale restrictions make it a single resort contract, and the location is significantly worse in that it makes hotels on Harbor and Katella reasonable comparison points (except for @AstroBlasters who would NEVER ), even if there are elements of VDH that are substantially better.

I think VGC dipping into the very high 100s while we have this glut of contracts is possible as the worst case scenario, but I think if it does, the glut of contracts will clear up very quickly. I think an $80-$100 per point gap between the resorts is very possible, but I also think the existence of VDH contracts precludes VGC from ever being 60% more than any other DVC resort again.

Early 2020 we had several rofr take between 170-185 for vgc. I would be surprised to see sub200s again after 4 years and inflation.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Early 2020 we had several rofr take between 170-185 for vgc. I would be surprised to see sub200s again after 4 years and inflation.

Makes sense…especially since they can’t keep points in stock at $310.

 

[nalababybear]

Makes sense…especially since they can’t keep points in stock at $310.

Isn't that crazy? With a spread 60$+ it flies off the shelf in minutes.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Isn't that crazy? With a spread 60$+ it flies off the shelf in minutes.

I am one of those crazy people who tried to buy it last Friday after reading there were 45 points available. I think small contracts are unlikely to drop below $200 again, but I think many of us who would be happy to pay $300 for 50-100 points would balk at spending even $250 for 300+ points. I think sticker shock will probably continue to drag the very large contracts down.

 

[CWTC]

Isn't that crazy? With a spread 60$+ it flies off the shelf in minutes.

We happily paid full direct prices for VGC when we wandered into the DL DVC lounge and the guide just happened to have 170 points for us. Take our money please.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

We happily paid full direct prices for VGC when we wandered into the DL DVC lounge and the guide just happened to have 170 points for us. Take our money please.

My brain is afraid to calculate 170 x $310.

 

[CWTC]

My brain is afraid to calculate 170 x $310.

Ha! We wanted our UY and a set amount of points. The delta on resale vs direct proportionately is smaller than other DVC properties. But honestly it came down to we wanted to own at VGC and it was the contract we were looking for. Again mental gymnastics for the win.

It was a great feeling to book our upcoming VGC trip at 11 months and not having to worry about availability at 7 months.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Ha! We wanted our UY and a set amount of points. The delta on resale vs direct proportionately is smaller than other DVC properties. But honestly it came down to we wanted to own at VGC and it was the contract we were looking for. Again mental gymnastics for the win.

It was a great feeling to book our upcoming VGC trip at 11 months and not having to worry about availability at 7 months.

Or wait for the months long resale slog….. and if they build something else fabulous with DLFwd…. you will be good to go!

 

[CWTC]

Or wait for the months long resale slog….. and if they build something else fabulous with DLFwd…. you will be good to go!

We are currently in that slog on a WDW DVC and I do think longingly of how quickly those VGC showed up in our account. But alas the delta is too great on resale vs direct in WDW.

 

[AstroBlasters]

We are currently in that slog on a WDW DVC and I do think longingly of how quickly those VGC showed up in our account. But alas the delta is too great on resale vs direct in WDW.

Very true.

 

[Chili327]

We wanted our UY and a set amount of points.

Was 170 all they had and was that the exact amount you were looking for?
Could you have bought less (direct, so I assume so)?

 

[CWTC]

Was 170 all they had and was that the exact amount you were looking for?
Could you have bought less (direct, so I assume so)?

It was all they had and we were looking for around 175. If we were getting via resale, we would have been looking at 160-200 size contracts. I assume we could have bought less but didn’t ask.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It was all they had and we were looking for around 175. If we were getting via resale, we would have been looking at 160-200 size contracts. I assume we could have bought less but didn’t ask.

Did they let you split it into multiple contracts?

 

[nalababybear]

Did they let you split it into multiple contracts?

They offered us to break ours up if wanted when we bought vgc direct earlier this year. Just have to pay a separate closing fee.

 

[CWTC]

Did they let you split it into multiple contracts?

We didn’t ask that either.

 

[buffalobasingal]

Mine was a different use year, but it actually worked out as I didn't have any VGC and the new Feb use year worked better for summer trips when I would avoid the heat at WDW and try to avoid using my Sept points in the last 3 months of their use year. And I don't want to use those VGC points for anything besides VGC anyway

Lucky find! I just noticed this thread and it has me watching the pricing to see if a great deal comes along. I bought VGC in 2020 for $200/pp and sold in 2023 for $265/pp to buy VDH. But, if I could find a contract for $225/pp like you did, then I would buy at VGC again. My use year is February, so hopefully a contract around 100 points or under comes back on the market. Makes me wonder if it would be possible to find another VGC owner with the same amount of points who may want to "swap" use years. I imagine there would be closing costs with a title company to swap contracts, but I wonder if it would be worth it to some people to have their preferred use year.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Lucky find! I just noticed this thread and it has me watching the pricing to see if a great deal comes along. I bought VGC in 2020 for $200/pp and sold in 2023 for $265/pp to buy VDH. But, if I could find a contract for $225/pp like you did, then I would buy at VGC again. My use year is February, so hopefully a contract around 100 points or under comes back on the market. Makes me wonder if it would be possible to find another VGC owner with the same amount of points who may want to "swap" use years. I imagine there would be closing costs with a title company to swap contracts, but I wonder if it would be worth it to some people to have their preferred use year.

Im under contract for a FEB UY. They are out there. I didnt get 225pp though. I paid 232 but seller paid MF on current year points.

 

[buffalobasingal]

Every time I get in the mood to start looking for a VGC contract again, Disney releases some ridiculous deal on Grand Cal which basically activates my "Is it really worth it?" anymore.

Save up to 25% on select stays of 4 or more nights at Disney’s Grand Californian Hotel & Spa, Disneyland Hotel or The Villas at Disneyland Hotel, on Standard and Premium rooms

https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/disneyland-resort-summer-ticket-and-hotel-offers-now-on-sale/

If only this deal extended through October 6th! We were trying to decide whether to go to Oogie Boogie Bash in September or October and ended up buying tickets for October 6th. Now I am really wishing that we had bought in September to have taken advantage of this deal!