Future Trends for VGC resale?

[buffalobasingal]

My take is similar to the others that have replied. I think that VDH will drag down VGC but that the gap will be MUCH larger than you are anticipating. I see VDH resale long term in the AKV-BLT range. The resale restrictions make it a single resort contract, and the location is significantly worse in that it makes hotels on Harbor and Katella reasonable comparison points (except for @AstroBlasters who would NEVER ), even if there are elements of VDH that are substantially better.

I think VGC dipping into the very high 100s while we have this glut of contracts is possible as the worst case scenario, but I think if it does, the glut of contracts will clear up very quickly. I think an $80-$100 per point gap between the resorts is very possible, but I also think the existence of VDH contracts precludes VGC from ever being 60% more than any other DVC resort again.

Do you think that the biggest dip will be later this year just before annual dues are due? Seems like in the past the DVC markets dip the lowest between November through February.

 

[buffalobasingal]

Im under contract for a FEB UY. They are out there. I didnt get 225pp though. I paid 232 but seller paid MF on current year points.

That still sounds like a smoking deal. Congrats! I plan to keep my eyes on the market over the next year and will snag a VGC contract if something like that shows up. Thanks!

 

[Chili327]

Lucky find! I just noticed this thread and it has me watching the pricing to see if a great deal comes along. I bought VGC in 2020 for $200/pp and sold in 2023 for $265/pp to buy VDH. But, if I could find a contract for $225/pp like you did, then I would buy at VGC again. My use year is February, so hopefully a contract around 100 points or under comes back on the market. Makes me wonder if it would be possible to find another VGC owner with the same amount of points who may want to "swap" use years. I imagine there would be closing costs with a title company to swap contracts, but I wonder if it would be worth it to some people to have their preferred use year.

You would have to both decide to "buy" each others contract, giving Disney their option to ROFR, and yes pay closing, commissions, etc.

 

[VGCgroupie]

That still sounds like a smoking deal. Congrats! I plan to keep my eyes on the market over the next year and will snag a VGC contract if something like that shows up. Thanks!

Thanks!

 

[buffalobasingal]

You would have to both decide to "buy" each others contract, giving Disney their option to ROFR, and yes pay closing, commissions, etc.

I was thinking we could avoid commission since we had already found a buyer, but that makes sense that ROFR would still need to be passed. It would probably be a challenge to find another VGC owner that would be willing to swap since there are so few of them. Just a thought.

 

[CastAStone]

Do you think that the biggest dip will be later this year just before annual dues are due? Seems like in the past the DVC markets dip the lowest between November through February.

I don’t know. I have begun to wonder if the ability to purchase a brand new DVC contract next door at ~$210 per point is causing VGC contracts to sit.

People haven’t really dropped their asking prices for Grand Californian in the last couple months but also the contracts aren’t really moving; 2/3rds of the current listings have been listed a month or more and nearly half for 2+ months. Something will have to give eventually. I’m still betting it will be the sellers.

 

[Tatebeck]

The 2 smallish ones that came available when I bought were indeed both February use years. I wonder why all the good deals have been Feb lately?

 

[tx911]

The 2 smallish ones that came available when I bought were indeed both February use years. I wonder why all the good deals have been Feb lately?

Did you buy those 2 50 point contracts, or a single 100 pointer?

I bought 2 50 pointers but I paid excessively for them, lol. I'm not sure if those are the same ones you're talking about though.

 

[buffalobasingal]

The 2 smallish ones that came available when I bought were indeed both February use years. I wonder why all the good deals have been Feb lately?

IDK, but that's music to my Feb Use Year add-on-itis mouse ears .

 

[Tatebeck]

Did you buy those 2 50 point contracts, or a single 100 pointer?

I bought 2 50 pointers but I paid excessively for them, lol. I'm not sure if those are the same ones you're talking about though.

Mine was a single 100 pointer but there was another 90 pointer that came up at the same time. Was tempted to get that one too lol

 

[tx911]

Mine was a single 100 pointer but there was another 90 pointer that came up at the same time. Was tempted to get that one too lol

I can't imagine what held you back. 1150 is such a nice round number

 

[AstroBlasters]

I was thinking we could avoid commission since we had already found a buyer, but that makes sense that ROFR would still need to be passed. It would probably be a challenge to find another VGC owner that would be willing to swap since there are so few of them. Just a thought.

Oh, I wish I could find someone to swap UYs for one of my VGC resale contracts to avoid having to pay the outrageous broker commissions…. I think since no cash is changing hands it wouldn’t be the normal ROFR proceeds… The issue is finding a unicorn member who has the exact same amount of points in a use year that they would also want to swap with my use year….

 

[New Mouse]

The other issue with swapping a contract is both now become resale restricted, so it would be rare to find someone wanting that.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The other issue with swapping a contract is both now become resale restricted, so it would be rare to find someone wanting that.

For a VGC contract? I’m not sure it matters…. My current VGC I would want swap is resale anyways… so it would be a net neutral… but I can see how someone who bought a long time ago at $125pp wouldn’t think twice about using the points to stay at VDH….

 

[VGCgroupie]

I was thinking we could avoid commission since we had already found a buyer, but that makes sense that ROFR would still need to be passed. It would probably be a challenge to find another VGC owner that would be willing to swap since there are so few of them. Just a thought.

There would be closing costs since it’s always advisable to get title insurance but you don’t have to use a broker and pay commissions if you find someone to swap with on your own.

 

[AstroBlasters]

There would be closing costs since it’s always advisable to get title insurance but you don’t have to use a broker and pay commissions if you find someone to swap with on your own.

I would pay $500ish in closing costs without broker markup to swap out a UY just to get all of my VGC in the same UY…. but probably wouldn’t pay any more than that.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I would pay $500ish in closing costs without broker markup to swap out a UY just to get all of my VGC in the same UY…. but probably wouldn’t pay any more than that.

My VGC closing was much more than my CCV with far worse service. I’m sure it can be shopped around for best price. What are your VGC UY’s?

 

[AstroBlasters]

My VGC closing was much more than my CCV with far worse service. I’m sure it can be shopped around for best price. What are your VGC UY’s?

297 in DEC (3 contracts) and 200 in FEB (1 contract)

Of course… the points are always used right around 11m to book something….

We currently have trips in 2BDs in Oct for Halloween (this was booked with AUL—S points), Nov for Christmas, and May for Star Wars already on the books….

 

[VGCgroupie]

297 in DEC (3 contracts) and 200 in FEB (1 contract)

Of course… the points are always used right around 11m to book something….

We currently have trips in 2BDs in Oct for Halloween (this was booked with AUL—S points), Nov for Christmas, and May for Star Wars already on the books….

So you would shed the FEB for a Dec then? My VGC is a Feb.

 

[AstroBlasters]

So you would shed the FEB for a Dec then? My VGC is a Feb.

If a perfect scenario came up and we spoke to a title agent and they said we could do it for $500ish and spoke to DVC and they would allow it as a simultaneous gratuitous transfer that avoided ROFR then I would absolutely simplify the UYs. I think a lot of people would….