Future Trends for VGC resale?

[ajpruett]

I have stayed at VGC and would love the idea of owning points there. I know a refurb is coming up so it may be a good time to buy points if you aren't needing a trip soon. The prices tend to be pretty spread out now. Wondering what people think about future prices for it, especially with VDH now there.

 

[got4boys]

Disneyland Forward got approved, the price will eventually go up.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I tend to think DVC prices as a whole will tend to be stagnant. Disney seems intent on increasing DVC supply, and it's difficult for me to see demand for DVC (and Disney Hotel prices) just increasing exponentially forever. I think it is likely there will be more DVC built at Disneyland as well given the Forward proposal, which will affect the VGC prices. And ultimately these things are depreciating assets, though I suppose the 2042 resorts are still pretty resilient price wise.

That being said, we own at VGC (and at BLT) and don't plan to sell, lol. We certainly have no regrets. I think if you can afford it and it fits into your travel patterns, then I think it's been great. But I'm a bit skeptical that DVC can continue to perform like it has in terms of price appreciation.

 

[Tatebeck]

I think it maintains or goes up in the future. Once I saw Disneyland Forward was going to pass I started looking for deals. All future Disneyland DVC resorts will have the higher transient tax that you pay at checkout like VDH. That's why I wanted in at VGC (well that and the side entrance to California Adventure).

I got a contract at 225/pt and there were a few I saw that went for between 225 and 240. If you are ready to buy you may want to buy if/when you find one in that range

 

[AstroBlasters]

DLand is where Disney is putting their money for the next decade. VGC has the benefits of location, low dues, and a sweetheart grandfathered tax rate.

IMO your main risk is if they convert some additional hotel to DVC (like VGF) and flood the system with points that are also grandfathered in at the current tax rate…. but I don’t see that happening based on hotel occupancy and Anaheim not allowing it….

 

[ClaraOswald]

I hope prices don't shoot up too high before the unicorn contract I'm waiting for shows up!

 

[Rex1993]

With VDH and Disneyland Forward, I'm in the camp of stagnating prices. My guess is that they will eventually go up but not anything like they have over the last 15 years. When VGC was the only game in town, there was some real justification for it being the priciest of all the properties by a long shot. With more supply, that dynamic changes. Just my two cents.

Of course I'm always on the lookout for more points at a good price...

 

[CastAStone]

I think there’s more room to fall. I can’t remember there ever being this many VGC contracts on the market, and a lot of owners seem to be holding out for 2022 prices, which only exist back in 2022.

VGC is among the resorts with the highest inherent value per point, and also is the hardest to book at 7 months, so it will likely remain the most expensive for the foreseeable future, but I have said before and will say again I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect prices to fall into low 200s (sub $220) for larger and stripped contracts, and maybe even $200ish for a large stripped contract.

 

[TeamRiley]

I think the demand will not drop. Just the current VGC contract holders will buy up any points if anything drops below 250. If the economy tanks as result of the election there may be a temporary dip, but with how incredibly convenient VGC is I don't see it ever stabilizing anywhere below 250. I thought the same a year ago about 275, but was wrong. I do not think the recent drop is due to the other options opening up (VDH), I think it is the cost of living going crazy.

 

[CastAStone]

but with how incredibly convenient VGC is I don't see it ever stabilizing anywhere below 250

I guess where I come from is that prepandemic VGC sold in the $180s-$190s; every other resort is basically at or below their pre-pandemic resale prices now except VGC.

And the only thing that’s changed is that there’s actually a backup plan now for owners who can’t get a VGC reservation.

So I’m not clear on why it would hold at these prices.

 

[TeamRiley]

So I’m not clear on why it would hold at these prprices.

I see it as being kind of like bitcoin. No logical explanation. We bought in when it was not much over 100. For years I thought it would turn around, but it never really did. It kind of has a life of its own.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Yep, I could have easily bought VGC for $100pp and turned it down to buy BLT (oops) and I am shocked at the current prices. But I am also shocked at BCV prices too.

The common factor is the smallest DVC resorts have huge demand and will maintain high prices and especially so for VGC.

 

[TeamRiley]

Typically, at an assumed long term return on invested free cash of 7% per year, buying into DVC vs. Renting points pays off between 16 and 19 years depending on the resort, the points chart etc. At current prices, VGC never pays off. You could rent every year, invest the money not spent on buy-in, and come out a fair amount ahead. (this is all assuming fee increase matches average inflation). The only thing you get now if you buy is the 11-month window, but even renting you can get that.

That being said, availability is so scarce that you probably couldn't get a spot if you tried to rent every year. It has a life of it's own at this point.

 

[CastAStone]

Typically, at an assumed long term return on invested free cash of 7% per year, buying into DVC vs. Renting points pays off between 16 and 19 years depending on the resort, the points chart etc. At current prices, VGC never pays off. You could rent every year, invest the money not spent on buy-in, and come out a fair amount ahead. (this is all assuming fee increase matches average inflation). The only thing you get now if you buy is the 11-month window, but even renting you can get that.

That being said, availability is so scarce that you probably couldn't get a spot if you tried to rent every year. It has a life of its own at this point.

Yes, renting only makes sense as a next best option if you can successfully book it. Otherwise you’re back to cash rates, and if you want a kitchen and in room laundry, Disney doesn’t offer that for cash at GCH.

Is renting in the 11 month window difficult? I’ve never tried.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I guess where I come from is that prepandemic VGC sold in the $180s-$190s; every other resort is basically at or below their pre-pandemic resale prices now except VGC.

And the only thing that’s changed is that there’s actually a backup plan now for owners who can’t get a VGC reservation.

So I’m not clear on why it would hold at these prices.

VGF added millions of points to its pool, VGC has remained the same small pool of points.

BCV has only 17ish years left, doesn’t have any views, has subpar room layouts, has higher dues and costs the same buy in per point adjusted for number of years. Yes, BCV has a less expensive point chart….but it’s not Grand Cal.

VGC is also is a better deal than VDH when taking into accounts dues and TOT. So VGC @ $225 is less expensive over the remaining years of VGCs life to buy VDH.

And…..Disney Forward just made these points even more valuable!

 

[TeamRiley]

Is renting in the 11 month window difficult? I’ve never tried.

I dont really know for sure. I have never rented. I was just making an assumption.
Even when we book ourselves 8 and 9 months out is iffy at VGC.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, renting only makes sense as a next best option if you can successfully book it. Otherwise you’re back to cash rates, and if you want a kitchen and in room laundry, Disney doesn’t offer that for cash at GCH.

Is renting in the 11 month window difficult? I’ve never tried.

$25pp is usually what I see….

 

[NVDISFamily]

If you like Villas (larger than studio rooms) then VGC is a great value even at 250+. If room rates continue to spike at the Grand Cal, I could see it supporting a value well north of 300 and even into the 400 range with enough time/inflation. At some point it will hit the "there is only X years left" contract danger zone, but that is a long time from now.

DVC has many magical and iconic resorts and VGC for many is a magical unicorn. It's great when you are sitting on the bus back to a WDW DVC resort and chatting with other members when the "where do you own" conversation comes up. When I mention Grand Cal, 99% of the time their eyes light up and the expression on their face is priceless

 

[AstroBlasters]

If you like Villas (larger than studio rooms) then VGC is a great value even at 250+. If room rates continue to spike at the Grand Cal, I could see it supporting a value well north of 300 and even into the 400 range with enough time/inflation. At some point it will hit the "there is only X years left" contract danger zone, but that is a long time from now.

DVC has many magical and iconic resorts and VGC for many is a magical unicorn. It's great when you are sitting on the bus back to a WDW DVC resort and chatting with other members when the "where do you own" conversation comes up. When I mention Grand Cal, 99% of the time their eyes light up and the expression on their face is priceless

We were at an Aulani DVC dance party with at least 100 other members one night and the CM’s were having people raise their hands and cheer for their various home resorts…. I think we were the only ones there who raised our hands for Grand Cal….

 

[Royal Consort]

We were at an Aulani DVC dance party with at least 100 other members one night and the CM’s were having people raise their hands and cheer for their various home resorts…. I think we were the only ones there who raised our hands for Grand Cal….

Did it feel like Simba in a stampede of Saratoga people?